□本报记者王雪青 2026开年以来，A股在政策暖风与全球流动性转向预期下走出"开门红"，但结构性分化依旧显著。站在 多个经济体周期共振、新质生产力加速落地的关键节点，如何穿越短期波动、把握长期价值？ 宏利基金权益部执行总经理、基金经理李坤元给出了她的答案——聚焦"好行业、好阶段、好公司、好 价格"，在全市场均衡布局中捕捉科技成长与周期反转的双重机遇。拥有20年投研经验、14年基金管理 履历的她，正以一套融合宏观研判、中观景气与微观精选的系统性框架，掌舵新发产品宏利优势企业混 合型证券投资基金，布局高质量发展时代的优质资产。 遵循"四好"选股原则 李坤元的投资框架具有鲜明的自上而下特征。"宏观先行"是她的鲜明特色。"这些年来，我积极跟踪经 济数据与宏观政策，尝试根据宏观环境的变化做仓位上的择时和确定投资风格。"李坤元表示，"我每个 季度都会对宏观情况进行审视判断，如果出现大的风险或异常因素，会增加跟踪频率。宏观有风险时， 首先要降低仓位，第二要降低持仓品种的弹性，进行防御。" 李坤元认为，2026年的宏观环境将迎来积极拐点。一方面，美联储降息确定性高，全球流动性趋于宽 松；另一方面，"十五五"规划开局之年政策协 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views Financial Futures - The market differentiation in 2026 will continue, and volatility will become the norm. It is a structural market, not a full-fledged supercycle. Funds will concentrate on varieties with fundamentals and narratives, marginalizing weak ones [1]. - The stock index market sentiment is positive, and the index is expected to continue to strengthen. The bond market faces pressure from the A-share market, and caution is needed in the short term [1][3]. Commodities New Energy - For lithium carbonate, there may be a rush to export lithium batteries before the end of April, and demand is still optimistic in the short - and long - term, but rapid price increases may erode downstream demand [5]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, there may be a rush to export in April, boosting short - term prices, but prices may face significant downward pressure after the rush - export period [7]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the price is likely to be adjusted at a high level, and new positions are not recommended above 100,000 yuan. For aluminum, the medium - to long - term price is bullish, and long positions can be arranged on dips. For zinc, it will continue to adjust and maintain a high - level shock in the short term. For nickel and stainless steel, they will maintain a high - level shock in the short term. For tin, it still has upward momentum in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips. For lead, it will fluctuate in a range [10][13][15]. Oils, Fats and Feeds - For oilseeds, pay attention to auctions and the USDA report. For oils, wait for the report to guide the market. For M3 - 5 spreads in soymeal, consider reducing positions [21][23]. Energy and Oil and Gas - For fuel oil, observe the market. For low - sulfur fuel oil, also take a wait - and - see approach [25][26]. Precious Metals - For platinum and palladium, they will have high - level wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Be cautious of short - term corrections. In the medium - to long - term, the bull market foundation remains. For gold and silver, they will be in a high - level shock, and pay attention to the US CPI. They are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern, and dips are opportunities to buy more [27][30]. Chemicals - For pulp and offset paper, the market is neutral to slightly bearish, and it is recommended to observe or short - sell on rallies. For LPG, pay attention to device changes. For PTA - PX, the demand negative feedback intensifies, and it is not recommended to chase long. For MEG - bottle chips, take a wait - and - see approach. For methanol, the geopolitical logic continues, and short - selling is not recommended. For PP, pay attention to the actual implementation of device maintenance. For PE, the upward space may be limited. For pure benzene - styrene, styrene is running strongly, but do not chase high. For rubber, the correction may not have stabilized, and it is recommended to observe. For urea, hold long positions. For soda ash and caustic soda, the weak reality continues. For propylene, the cost provides support, but beware of risks [33][35][36]. Black Metals - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, they will bottom - out and fluctuate with support from raw materials. For iron ore, do not chase long at the current position, and consider taking profits on long positions. For coking coal and coke, the industrial logic is not the core driver of price increases. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they may bottom - out and fluctuate after the correction [59][62]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - For live pigs, the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term and may show a "low - first, high - later" trend in the long term. For cotton, there may be a short - term correction risk. For sugar, it will fluctuate under pressure. For eggs, be bullish on the first half of the year, but the process may be volatile. For apples, the price is under pressure at a high level. For red dates, they will fluctuate at a low level [66][68][69]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - In December 2025, China's CPI and PPI both showed positive changes, and the employment data in the US was mixed. The Iranian situation and China's business work conference policies have an impact on the market [1]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, the stock index rose with heavy volume, and the small - and medium - cap stock indexes led the gains. The market sentiment is positive, and the index is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. Treasury Bond - Last week, treasury bonds fell for three days and then rebounded. The bond market is under pressure from the A - share market, and caution is needed in the short term. It is recommended to hold long - term long positions and gradually take profits on short - term long positions [3][4]. Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the futures price was strong, with an increase in trading volume and open interest. The spot market was mainly for rigid demand. The price of lithium ore and lithium carbonate increased. It is expected that there will be a rush to export lithium batteries before April, and demand is still optimistic [5]. Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures price decreased slightly, with an increase in trading volume and open interest. The polysilicon futures price decreased, with an increase in trading volume and a decrease in open interest. In April, there may be a rush to export, boosting short - term prices, but prices may face significant downward pressure after the rush - export period [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The price fluctuated last week, with an increase in trading volume and open interest. The inventory situation is complex, and high - level adjustment is likely [10]. Aluminum Industry Chain - The aluminum price rose, driven by funds and the expectation of export rush. The alumina price is affected by related varieties, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies. The cast aluminum alloy price follows the aluminum price, and pay attention to the spread [13]. Zinc - The zinc price adjusted recently, with a tight domestic raw material supply in the short term and a relatively loose supply in the long term. It will maintain a high - level shock in the short term [15]. Nickel & Stainless Steel - The nickel price fell, and the stainless - steel price rose slightly. The market is affected by supply expectations and funds, and it will maintain a high - level shock in the short term [16]. Tin - The tin price has upward momentum in the short term, mainly driven by macro and capital factors. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Lead - The lead price fluctuated narrowly. The domestic and foreign inventory patterns are different, and it will fluctuate in a range [20]. Oils, Fats and Feeds Oilseeds - The domestic soybean futures price was affected by auctions and USDA reports. The supply and demand situation of imported soybeans and domestic soymeal is complex. For the M3 - 5 spread in soymeal, consider reducing positions [21]. Oils - The three major domestic oils are waiting for the MPOB report. The palm oil market sentiment has improved, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil markets are affected by various factors [23]. Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil has become tight due to sanctions, and the high - sulfur cracking has continued to decline, but the Iranian geopolitical issue provides support. It is recommended to observe [25]. Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is improving, and the demand is average. The Lu price has limited upward drive. It is recommended to observe [26]. Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - They fluctuated widely last week, affected by geopolitical conflicts, index parameter adjustments, and exchange cooling measures. They will have high - level wide - range fluctuations in the short term, and be cautious of short - term corrections. In the medium - to long - term, the bull market foundation remains [27]. Gold & Silver - They continued to rise last week, affected by geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate expectations. They will be in a high - level shock, and pay attention to the US CPI. They are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern, and dips are opportunities to buy more [30]. Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp futures price rebounded, and the offset paper futures price fluctuated. The pulp market is neutral to slightly bearish, and it is recommended to observe or short - sell on rallies [33]. LPG - The LPG price rose slightly. The supply is tight, and the demand is relatively stable. Pay attention to device changes [35]. PTA - PX - The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply is affected by device restarts. The demand negative feedback intensifies, and it is not recommended to chase long [36]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The MEG supply has increased slightly, and the demand negative feedback continues. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [39]. Methanol - The methanol price rose, and the MTO end may face parking. The geopolitical logic continues, and short - selling is not recommended [41]. PP - The PP price rose. The supply pressure is relieved in the short term, and the demand may decline seasonally. Pay attention to the actual implementation of device maintenance [43]. PE - The PE price rose. The supply pressure may increase in the future, and the demand may decline seasonally. The upward space may be limited [46]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene market is in an oversupply situation, and the styrene market is strong, but do not chase high [48]. Rubber - The rubber price corrected. The natural rubber inventory is accumulating, and the synthetic rubber is affected by raw materials and demand. The correction may not have stabilized, and it is recommended to observe [50]. Urea - The urea price rose. The supply is in an oversupply stage, and the price is affected by demand and export policies. It is recommended to hold long positions [52]. Soda Ash & Caustic Soda - The soda ash inventory is increasing, and the glass inventory is relatively high. The caustic soda is in a weak - reality state. The weak reality continues [54]. Propylene - The propylene price rose. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is relatively stable. The cost provides support, but beware of risks [57]. Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - The rebar demand is seasonally weak, and the supply is increasing. The hot - rolled coil inventory is gradually changing from de - stocking to stocking. They will bottom - out and fluctuate with support from raw materials [59]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price has risen, but it has high inventory and high - shipping problems, and the valuation is high. It is not recommended to chase long at the current position [59]. Coking Coal & Coke - The coking coal supply is stable with a slight increase, and the coke production is relatively stable. The demand has growth space, but the industrial logic is not the core driver of price increases [63]. Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - They rose and then fell. The supply pressure is relatively large, but they are supported by the cost. They may bottom - out and fluctuate after the correction [64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The pig price fluctuates narrowly, and the supply - demand game intensifies. The market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term and may show a "low - first, high - later" trend in the long term [66]. Cotton - The cotton price has risen, but there may be a short - term correction risk due to factors such as squeezed spinning profits and the price advantage of imported yarn [68]. Sugar - The sugar price is under pressure, affected by the expected increase in Indian production and other factors. It will fluctuate under pressure, and pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [69]. Eggs - The egg price is rising, driven by capacity reduction. The futures market is a game between supply contraction and uncertain demand. Be bullish on the first half of the year, but the process may be volatile [72]. Apples - The apple price is under pressure at a high level. The inventory is decreasing, and pay attention to the pre - Spring Festival stocking [78]. Red Dates - The red date price is fluctuating at a low level. The domestic supply is abundant, and pay attention to downstream procurement [79].

Group 1 - The core investment strategy for 2026 focuses on internal demand expansion, with a gradual approach to policy implementation [6][39] - The government aims to address low prices through demand stimulation and supply-side adjustments, which will help increase tax revenue and improve corporate profitability [30][31] - The emphasis on policy analysis highlights the importance of understanding government behavior and its impact on asset allocation [2][25] Group 2 - The 2026 policy goals include a shift from external pressures to internal dynamics, with a consensus on expanding domestic demand [31] - Liquidity will focus on structural adjustments rather than total volume, as the real estate sector's contribution to tax revenue diminishes [32] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate, which could help alleviate internal price stagnation and support asset revaluation [33] Group 3 - A significant increase in bond supply is anticipated, which will serve as a substitute for tax revenue and help address public income distribution issues [34] - Local governments are expected to optimize existing assets to alleviate cash flow pressures, with strategies like resource assetization and securitization [35] - Class stabilization funds will continue to mitigate negative externalities in the market, ensuring that stock market adjustments remain within controllable limits [36] Group 4 - The complete asset allocation strategy for 2026 emphasizes a "risk premium down, profit up, structural differentiation" framework, with a focus on cyclical resonance [38] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a shift from "weak recovery + strong differentiation" to "overall improvement," with corporate profits expected to recover [40] - The investment direction will prioritize midstream manufacturing and new productive forces, with a focus on high-rated credit bonds and interest rate bonds [42]