买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,598 | 5,679 | 6,277 | 6,950 | 7,688 | | 同比（%） | (7.16) | (13.93) | 10.54 | 10.72 | 10.62 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 500.05 | (833.09) | 321.76 | 409.59 | 539.42 | | 同比（%） | 5.93 | (266.60) | 138.62 | 27.30 | 31.70 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.74 | (1.24) | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.80 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 31.46 | (18.88) | 48.89 | 38.40 | 29.16 | 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·化妆品 上海家化（600315） 2025 年半年报点评：25Q2 收入同增 25%， 改革焕新成效显著 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 89.18 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.85 billion, up 5.44% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.26 billion, a 2.53% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 6.17% to 5.87 billion [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 36.94 billion, growing 6.05% year-on-year, with net profit at 14.86 billion, up 5.80% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 31.7 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 22.3 billion, with a payout ratio of 70% [1] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for the liquor segment in 2024 was 83.13 billion, an 8.74% increase, with Wuliangye liquor revenue at 67.88 billion, up 8.07% [3] - The average price per ton of liquor was 1.64 million, a 0.94% increase year-on-year [3] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 37.2%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points, primarily due to increased sales expenses [4] Cash Flow and Financing - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 33.94 billion, down 18.7% year-on-year, attributed to reduced cash receipts from sales and increased tax payments [5] - In Q1 2025, operating cash flow surged to 15.85 billion, a dramatic increase of 2970.3% year-on-year, driven by a higher cash collection ratio [5] - The company’s accounts receivable financing at the end of 2024 was 19.57 billion, an increase from the previous year [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to consolidate and enhance its stable growth, focusing on brand value and market share improvement, aligning revenue growth with macroeconomic indicators [1][2] - The company continues to be the leading brand in the thousand-yuan price segment, with strong brand power and ongoing reforms expected to drive stable growth [2]