Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 77.05 HKD and a target value of 102.81 HKD [4]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the main brand of the company faced pressure, while the FILA brand showed signs of recovery, and other brands maintained high growth rates. The main brand's retail sales experienced a low single-digit decline year-on-year, whereas FILA's retail sales grew in the mid-single digits. Other brands saw retail sales growth of 35-40% year-on-year [8]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, driven by the "Lighthouse Plan," continuous store renovations, and new business models. The FILA brand is anticipated to continue its growth momentum, while other brands are expected to sustain rapid growth despite increasing competition [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 4.70, 5.12, and 5.79 CNY, respectively. The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times for 2026, leading to a reasonable value of 102.81 HKD per share [8]. Financial Summary - Main revenue is projected to grow from 62,356 million CNY in 2023 to 94,684 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 16.2%, 13.6%, 9.4%, 10.0%, and 11.1% respectively [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 19,708 million CNY in 2023 to 29,797 million CNY in 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 10,236 million CNY in 2023 to 16,198 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 34.9% in 2023 followed by a 52.4% increase in 2024 [2]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.9% in 2023, peaking at 25.3% in 2024, and stabilizing around 19.4% to 19.8% in the following years [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.19 billion, 2.45 billion, and 2.68 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 2%, 12%, and 10% respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 14, 13, and 11 times. Under the assumption of a 90% dividend payout ratio, the dividend yield for 2025 is estimated to reach 6.4% [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 15.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.86 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.82 billion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 4.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a net profit of 280 million yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year [4][2]. Business Segment Analysis - The main brand showed steady growth, with Q3 revenue increasing by 3% to 2.46 billion yuan. The direct sales channel is expected to achieve positive same-store growth, although online channel revenue decreased by 20% year-on-year. The gross margin for the main brand in Q3 improved by 3.1 percentage points, attributed to channel structure optimization and reduced promotional activities [10][4]. - Group purchasing benefited from an improved competitive landscape and customer expansion, with Q3 revenue rising by 43% to 540 million yuan. However, the gross margin for this segment decreased by 9.3 percentage points year-on-year due to price reductions aimed at increasing orders and the lower margin associated with the new workwear segment [10][4]. - Other brands experienced a revenue increase of 7% to 910 million yuan in Q3, indicating stable growth [10][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - Anta Sports reported Q3 2025 retail data, showing low single-digit growth for the Anta and FILA brands, while other brands experienced a growth of 45%-50% [2][4]. - The retail performance of Anta is under pressure, with expectations of a decline in terminal discounts, although the inventory-to-sales ratio remains healthy [6]. - FILA's retail performance is relatively weak, with high inventory levels, and it is anticipated that discounts will increase during the upcoming Double Eleven sales to clear stock [6]. - Short-term pressures are expected to continue affecting gross profit margin (GPM) and operating profit margin (OPM), while mid-term growth will rely on store adjustments and international expansion [6]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 131 billion, 146 billion, and 161 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 15, and 14 [6][8]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta brand retail shows low single-digit growth, aligning with market trends, while other brands are performing significantly better [2][4]. - FILA brand retail is underperforming with high inventory levels, and adjustments are expected to improve inventory turnover [6]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are 70.83 billion for 2024, 78.63 billion for 2025, 86.40 billion for 2026, and 93.76 billion for 2027, with growth rates of 14%, 11%, 10%, and 9% respectively [8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are 4.25 for 2024, increasing to 5.74 by 2027 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on two business models: self-operated retail and comprehensive brand services, with strict quality control measures in place for products [1] Business Operations - The company has conducted a review of its distributors and suppliers in 2024, gradually phasing out internal competition clients [1] - The number of online stores for the brand "Nanji Ren" is approximately 1,000, with plans for steady expansion [1] - The first physical store has been opened in Shanghai's Global Harbor, with plans to explore more types of offline store channels and optimize store operations to enhance consumer experience [1]