公司点评 | 海澜之家 主品牌环比改善，奥莱新业态持续拓店 核心数据 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 21,528 | 20,957 | 22,295 | 24,555 | 27,090 | | 增长率 | 16.0% | -2.7% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | | 归母净利润 (百万元) | 2,952 | 2,159 | 2,421 | 2,700 | 2,947 | | 增长率 | 37.0% | -26.9% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.1% | | 每股收益（EPS） | 0.61 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.61 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 10.8 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 10.8 | | 市净率（P/B） | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 数据来源：公司财务报表，西部证券研发中心 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance aligns with expectations, showing modest revenue growth but a decline in net profit [1] Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue reached 11.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.580 billion yuan, down 3.4%; and net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.566 billion yuan, up 3.8% [1] - In 2Q25, revenue was 5.379 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.645 billion yuan, down 13.9%; and net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 0.641 billion yuan, up 1.4% [1] Channel Performance - In 1H25, online and offline revenues grew by 4.4% and 2.7% respectively, reaching 2.308 billion yuan and 8.929 billion yuan; in 2Q25, online revenue decreased by 5.2% to 1.294 billion yuan, while offline revenue increased by 12.0% to 3.913 billion yuan [2] - The main brand, HLA, saw a revenue decline of 5.9% in 1H25, totaling 8.395 billion yuan; however, group purchase revenue increased by 23.7% to 1.343 billion yuan, and other brands, driven by adidas FCC and JD Outlet, saw a revenue increase of 65.6% to 1.500 billion yuan [2] Profitability and Costs - The gross margin for 1H25 improved by 1.1 percentage points to 46.4%, with the main brand's gross margin increasing by 2.2 percentage points to 48.3% [3] - Operating expenses increased, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios rising to 21.4%, 4.3%, and -0.4% respectively; the net profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 13.7%, while the net profit margin after deducting non-recurring items increased by 0.3 percentage points to 13.5% [3] Development Trends - The company expects steady growth in offline sales for the main brand in the second half of the year; as of the end of July, 29 JD Outlet stores have been opened, with a healthy opening trend anticipated for the future [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 2.404 billion yuan and 2.802 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively; the current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14x and 12x for those years [5] - The target price has been adjusted down by 11.6% to 9.01 yuan, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 18x and 15x for 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current stock price [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company is preparing for its upcoming shareholder meeting, outlining the procedures and rules to ensure order and efficiency during the meeting [1][2][3]. Meeting Procedures - The shareholder meeting will have a secretariat responsible for organizing the meeting and handling related matters [1]. - Attendees must respect the rights of shareholders and maintain order during the meeting [1]. - Shareholders have the right to speak and vote, but must register in advance if they wish to speak [1]. - Non-shareholders are not allowed to speak without permission from the meeting host [2]. Voting Methods - Voting will be conducted through both on-site and online methods [3]. - On-site voting requires shareholders to collect ballots upon registration [3]. - The meeting will appoint three monitors to oversee the voting process [3]. Agenda Items - The agenda includes the review of the 2024 annual report, board and supervisory committee reports, financial statements, profit distribution proposals, and various resolutions regarding the company's governance [3][4][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of approximately 20.96 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 2.65% compared to 2023 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.88% to approximately 2.16 billion yuan [4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities dropped by 55.70% to approximately 2.32 billion yuan [4]. Business Strategy - The company aims to enhance its brand influence and market presence through various initiatives, including expanding its product offerings and optimizing store layouts [12][24]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and innovation in product development to meet diverse consumer needs [22][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.957 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 2.65% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.159 billion RMB, down 26.88% [2]. - The Q1 2025 revenue was 6.187 billion RMB, showing a slight increase of 0.16%, while the net profit rose by 5.46% to 935 million RMB [2]. - The company achieved a total cash dividend of 1.969 billion RMB in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 91% [2]. Operational Analysis - The main business operations are stable, with significant growth in online and overseas channels. The main brand, Hai Lan Zhi Jia, generated revenue of 15.270 billion RMB, down 7.22%, while group purchases brought in 2.224 billion RMB, down 2.51% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the main brand's revenue decreased by 9.52% to 4.642 billion RMB, while group purchases increased by 17.58% to 646 million RMB [2]. - The direct sales channel achieved revenue of 1.592 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.15%, with a total of 1,510 stores by the end of Q1 2025 [2]. - Online revenue reached 4.419 billion RMB in 2024, a growth of 35.63%, indicating a strong performance in online channels [2]. - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore, with overseas revenue of 355 million RMB, up 30.75% [2]. New Business Development - The company is experiencing positive momentum in new business formats, with other brands generating revenue of 2.668 billion RMB in 2024, an increase of 32.38%, and 743 million RMB in Q1 2025, a growth of 100.22% [3]. - The acquisition of a controlling stake in Sports Holdings contributed 994 million RMB in revenue and a net profit of 67.05 million RMB from April to December 2024 [3]. - The first JD Outlet opened in September 2024, and by April 2025, the number of stores reached 12, leveraging high cost-performance to attract consumers [3]. Profitability and Forecast - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 44.52% and 46.62%, respectively, indicating stable profitability [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 10.30% and 15.12%, respectively, showing improvement in profitability [3]. - The company forecasts EPS of 0.57, 0.65, and 0.75 RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 times [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.957 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 2.65% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.159 billion RMB, down 26.88% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.187 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.16%, with a net profit of 935 million RMB, up 5.46% [2]. - The company has a high dividend payout, with a total cash dividend of 1.969 billion RMB for 2024, representing a payout ratio exceeding 91% [2]. Business Analysis - The main business operations are stable, with significant growth in online and overseas channels. The main brand, Hai Lan Zhi Jia, generated revenue of 15.270 billion RMB, down 7.22%, while group purchases brought in 2.224 billion RMB, down 2.51% for 2024 [2]. - In Q1 2025, the main brand's revenue decreased by 9.52% to 4.642 billion RMB, while group purchases increased by 17.58% to 646 million RMB [2]. - The company is expanding its direct sales channels, achieving a revenue of 1.592 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a growth of 13.15% [2]. - The online revenue for 2024 reached 4.419 billion RMB, a growth of 35.63%, indicating strong performance in digital sales [2]. - The company is actively expanding into international markets, achieving overseas revenue of 355 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.75% [2]. New Business Developments - The company has seen positive growth in new business formats, with revenues from other brands reaching 2.668 billion RMB in 2024, up 32.38%, and 743 million RMB in Q1 2025, up 100.22% [3]. - The acquisition of a controlling stake in Sports Holdings has contributed to revenue of 994 million RMB and a net profit of 67.05 million RMB from April to December 2024 [3]. - The first JD Outlet opened in September 2024, and by April 2025, the number of stores reached 12, leveraging competitive pricing to attract consumers [3]. Profitability and Forecast - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 44.52% and 46.62%, respectively, indicating stable profitability [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 10.30% and 15.12%, showing improvement in profitability in Q1 [3]. - The company forecasts EPS of 0.57, 0.65, and 0.75 RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 times [5].