商业航天与卫星互联网：关注火箭产业链突破 20251123 摘要 商业航天迎来多重拐点：政策支持力度加大，部分核心公司三季度业绩 已显现积极变化，可回收火箭技术及 NTN 标准体系成为关注焦点，预示 行业进入加速发展期。 全球可回收火箭技术竞争加剧：SpaceX 猎鹰 9 号和星舰已成熟运行， Blue Origin 新格伦火箭实现一级回收，国内蓝箭等公司计划年底密集 发射，标志着全球商业航天进入新阶段。 算力上天面临挑战：带宽限制、太空环境复杂、设备折旧等问题制约发 展，需探索解决方案，这些因素对相关投资策略产生直接影响。 2026 年商业航天展望：作为"十五"规划首年，民商火箭密集发射将 降低成本，国家队也将推出可回收火箭，星网和垣信建设有望加速，推 动行业快速发展。 朱雀 3 号首发意义重大：作为民商火箭，其首发抢在国家队之前，采用 全舰不锈钢设计，借鉴猎鹰 9 号技术，成功将提升国内商业航天信心， 并推动技术发展。 Q&A 目前商业航天领域的三重拐点是什么？具体情况如何？ 商业航天领域的三重拐点包括两个确定性的拐点和一个可能出现的拐点。第一 个确定性的拐点是政策型的，主要体现在商业航天司的成立，这一机 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call on Commercial Aerospace and Satellite Internet Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **commercial aerospace industry** in China, highlighting its current challenges and future opportunities, particularly in satellite internet and rocket technology [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Underperformance of Domestic Commercial Aerospace**: The development of China's commercial aerospace has been below expectations due to insufficient rocket production capacity and limited downstream application scenarios [1][2]. 2. **Significant Progress by SpaceX**: SpaceX has made notable advancements in technology, policy, and commercialization, significantly reducing space payload costs and enhancing capacity, serving as a model for domestic development [1][2]. 3. **Three Critical Turning Points**: The industry is experiencing three turning points: - **Policy Turning Point**: The government has emphasized building a strong aerospace nation, leading to increased policy support [3][7]. - **Performance Turning Point**: Accelerated launches are expected to boost the performance of listed companies, with a forecast of 2 to 4 launches per month starting in 2025 [3]. - **Technical Turning Point**: Innovations in reusable rockets and mobile direct connection technology are anticipated to break through existing limitations [3][4]. 4. **Impact of Reusable Rockets**: The introduction of reusable rockets is projected to reduce launch costs significantly, from 60,000-80,000 RMB per kilogram to 200-300 USD, representing a 30-fold decrease [4][5]. 5. **Mobile Direct Connection Technology**: This technology is expected to integrate satellite communication with terrestrial cellular networks, enhancing user access and expanding coverage [6]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Investment Opportunities**: The investment landscape in the commercial aerospace sector is shifting towards rocket manufacturing, satellite production, and NTN (Non-Terrestrial Network) applications, particularly those related to low Earth orbit satellite networks [2][10][11]. 2. **Government Support**: The strategic elevation of commercial aerospace as a key industry by the government is expected to provide clear direction and accelerate industry growth through local government initiatives [7]. 3. **Comparative Development**: The call outlines the contrasting development trajectories of China and the US in commercial aerospace, with China starting from a nascent stage in 2015 and the US advancing rapidly with projects like Starlink [8][9]. Conclusion - The commercial aerospace industry in China is at a pivotal moment, with significant policy support, technological advancements, and emerging investment opportunities that could reshape the landscape in the coming years [1][10].