Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Demand expectations are weakening, and prices are oscillating downward [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: The apparent demand is weakening month-on-month, with wide fluctuations [2][8] - Silico-manganese and ferrosilicon: The sentiment in the sector is weak, with wide fluctuations [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Long positions are taking profits, and the market is oscillating weakly [2][16][17] - Logs: Demand expectations are poor, and prices are falling [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 761.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The open interest decreased by 1,361 lots to 513,384 lots. Among the spot prices, the price of imported ore increased slightly, while the price of domestic ore decreased. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators regularly [4] - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For the RB2605 rebar futures contract, the closing price was 3,064 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan or 0.84%. For the HC2605 hot-rolled coil futures contract, the closing price was 3,239 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan or 0.55%. The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions showed little change, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [8][9] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on February 5th, the production of rebar decreased by 8.15 tons, and that of hot-rolled coil decreased by 0.05 tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 44.04 tons, and that of hot-rolled coil increased by 3.62 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 28.76 tons, and that for hot-rolled coil decreased by 5.87 tons. In late January 2026, the production and inventory of key steel enterprises showed different trends. BHP Billiton's first-half iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted a partial price cut in the annual contract negotiation with China. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased in quantity and price [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Silico-manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the silicon iron 2603 and 2605 futures contracts were 5,610 yuan/ton and 5,594 yuan/ton respectively, down 24 yuan and 30 yuan. The closing prices of the manganese silicon 2603 and 2605 futures contracts were 5,778 yuan/ton and 5,812 yuan/ton respectively, down 38 yuan and 44 yuan. The spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon also showed certain changes, and the price differences between futures and spot, near and far months, and cross-varieties also had corresponding adjustments [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 9th, the prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions were reported. NMT announced the March 2026 manganese ore shipment price to China, with an increase. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices and quantities of silicon iron and manganese silicon in February [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon iron and manganese silicon, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,147 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan or 0.7%. The closing price of the J2605 coke futures contract was 1,703.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.3%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed little change, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 9th, the CCI metallurgical coal index was reported. The online coking coal auction on the same day had a high rejection rate, and the transaction prices mainly decreased [17] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a bearish outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 log futures contracts showed a downward trend, and the trading volume and open interest also had certain changes. The spot prices of logs in different regions remained stable [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators regularly [22] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a consistent outlook on the commodity market for the second half of 2025, indicating a shift from previous expectations due to external factors such as tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [2][4]. Core Insights - The commodity market has experienced synchronized price movements driven by external shocks rather than fundamental factors, with U.S. tariff policies being a significant variable affecting market risk preferences [3][14]. - The report highlights that the extreme demand shock from economic recession risks has decreased, but commodity demand may still face marginal slowdowns in the second half of the year [5][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff policies and geopolitical situations, as they may lead to significant changes in market dynamics and create investment opportunities [5][50]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Market Dynamics - The U.S. tariff policy has been a major driver of market volatility, with significant capital outflows observed in April 2025, marking the largest monthly outflow since March 2020 [14][26]. - Recent developments, including tariff reductions announced during U.S.-China trade talks, have alleviated some recession fears and improved market sentiment [26][30]. Demand and Supply Factors - The report identifies three key areas of focus: the potential for marginal demand slowdowns, the impact of finalized tariff policies on industrial metals and agricultural products, and the ongoing geopolitical negotiations affecting energy supplies [5][34]. - It notes that while domestic industrial metal demand may face pressures post-construction season, energy demand in Europe and the U.S. could also be impacted by economic slowdowns and trade tensions [31][34]. Commodity Price Adjustments - The report predicts that most commodities will experience a re-evaluation of prices due to cost feedback mechanisms, with certain metals like copper and aluminum expected to maintain a premium due to supply constraints and green demand [6][25]. - It suggests that agricultural products may continue to face pricing pressures, particularly as new planting seasons approach and trade uncertainties persist [46][48]. Geopolitical Considerations - The report highlights that geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, continue to influence energy supply expectations, with OPEC+ production policies being a critical factor for oil prices [50][51]. - It indicates that while the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on oil supply has been limited, the market remains sensitive to changes in OPEC+ production strategies and broader geopolitical developments [51][52].

Group 1 - The core variable affecting the commodity market in the first half of the year was the fluctuating U.S. tariff policy, which significantly impacted market risk appetite and commodity prices [2][5][6] - The commodity market experienced a phase of synchronized price movements driven by external shocks rather than fundamental changes, with a notable increase in the correlation index of commodity prices since April [5][6] - Following signals of tariff policy easing from the U.S. government in late April and the joint statement from the U.S.-China Geneva trade talks in mid-May, there are indications that tariff uncertainty may have peaked, leading to a recovery in commodity prices and market positions [2][5] Group 2 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the impact of trade policies and geopolitical situations on the commodity market is expected to shift from anticipation to reality, with various fundamental factors potentially creating opportunities for divergence from consensus expectations [3][15] - Key areas of focus include the marginal slowdown in demand for major commodities, the ongoing adjustments in tariff policies, and the geopolitical negotiations involving the U.S. and Iran/Russia, which may affect energy supply [3][15][16] Group 3 - An updated forecast indicates an increase in the number of commodities experiencing supply surplus, reflecting widespread demand pressures, with only the domestic aluminum market and the U.S. natural gas market expected to maintain a shortfall [4][43] - The potential for price recovery in the second half of the year may hinge on cost feedback and premium reassessment, particularly for non-ferrous metals and energy, while iron ore and domestic pork prices may struggle to maintain their premiums [4][43] Group 4 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, while details on tariffs for copper and agricultural products remain pending, indicating ongoing tests of trade elasticity and supply resilience in these markets [15][25] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly negotiations involving the U.S. and Iran/Russia, continues to present uncertainties that could impact energy supply and pricing dynamics [38][39] Group 5 - The commodity market is expected to face a transition from tight supply-demand balance to potential oversupply, particularly in the oil market, influenced by OPEC+ production policies and external geopolitical factors [50][51] - The outlook for natural gas indicates challenges in rebalancing due to high inventory levels and the need for increased LNG imports in Europe, while coal prices are under pressure from weak demand and high inventory [56][57] Group 6 - The agricultural sector is anticipated to experience ongoing pressures, with soybean prices expected to fluctuate based on planting area adjustments and U.S.-China trade policy uncertainties, while pork prices may face downward pressure due to increased supply [69][75]