Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Demand expectations are weakening, and prices are oscillating downward [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: The apparent demand is weakening month-on-month, with wide fluctuations [2][8] - Silico-manganese and ferrosilicon: The sentiment in the sector is weak, with wide fluctuations [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Long positions are taking profits, and the market is oscillating weakly [2][16][17] - Logs: Demand expectations are poor, and prices are falling [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 761.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The open interest decreased by 1,361 lots to 513,384 lots. Among the spot prices, the price of imported ore increased slightly, while the price of domestic ore decreased. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators regularly [4] - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For the RB2605 rebar futures contract, the closing price was 3,064 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan or 0.84%. For the HC2605 hot-rolled coil futures contract, the closing price was 3,239 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan or 0.55%. The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions showed little change, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [8][9] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on February 5th, the production of rebar decreased by 8.15 tons, and that of hot-rolled coil decreased by 0.05 tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 44.04 tons, and that of hot-rolled coil increased by 3.62 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 28.76 tons, and that for hot-rolled coil decreased by 5.87 tons. In late January 2026, the production and inventory of key steel enterprises showed different trends. BHP Billiton's first-half iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted a partial price cut in the annual contract negotiation with China. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased in quantity and price [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Silico-manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the silicon iron 2603 and 2605 futures contracts were 5,610 yuan/ton and 5,594 yuan/ton respectively, down 24 yuan and 30 yuan. The closing prices of the manganese silicon 2603 and 2605 futures contracts were 5,778 yuan/ton and 5,812 yuan/ton respectively, down 38 yuan and 44 yuan. The spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon also showed certain changes, and the price differences between futures and spot, near and far months, and cross-varieties also had corresponding adjustments [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 9th, the prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions were reported. NMT announced the March 2026 manganese ore shipment price to China, with an increase. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices and quantities of silicon iron and manganese silicon in February [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon iron and manganese silicon, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,147 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan or 0.7%. The closing price of the J2605 coke futures contract was 1,703.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.3%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed little change, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 9th, the CCI metallurgical coal index was reported. The online coking coal auction on the same day had a high rejection rate, and the transaction prices mainly decreased [17] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a bearish outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 log futures contracts showed a downward trend, and the trading volume and open interest also had certain changes. The spot prices of logs in different regions remained stable [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators regularly [22] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

大宗商品展望 证券研究报告 2025.06.08 大宗商品 2025 下半年展望综述：一致 预期后的变局 郭朝辉 分析员 李林惠 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070006 SFC CE Ref：BBU524 chaohui.guo@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524060004 linhui.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 上半年，大宗商品市场频繁发生同涨同跌的共振行情，背后驱动却并非基本面的内生同频，而更多源于意外变量的外部 冲击。我们认为美国关税政策反复是商品市场共同面对的核心变数，从贸易政策不确定性驱动跨市套利交易、提振海外 金属价格，到"对等关税"超预期、商品市场迎来抛售。市场资金的剧烈流动中或已显示，本次美国关税政策对商品市 场风险偏好的冲击并不亚于 2020 年全球疫情和 2022 年俄乌冲突时期，我们认为一致预期的演绎和定价可能已经较为 充分。继特朗普政府在 4 月 23 日传递关税政策缓和信号1，再到 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 上半年，大宗商品市场频繁发生同涨同跌的共振行情，背后驱动却并非基本面的内生同频，而更多源于意外变量的外部冲击。我们认为美国关税政策反复 是商品市场共同面对的核心变数，从贸易政策不确定性驱动跨市套利交易、提振海外金属价格，到"对等关税"超预期、商品市场迎来抛售。市场资金的剧 烈流动中或已显示，本次美国关税政策对商品市场风险偏好的冲击并不亚于2020年全球疫情和2022年俄乌冲突时期，我们认为一致预期的演绎和定价可能 已经较为充分。继特朗普政府在4月23日传递关税政策缓和信号[1]，再到5月12日中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布[2]，关税不确定性似乎初步见顶，全 球经济衰退担忧缓和，商品价格和市场持仓的回补或均显示一致预期的修正进程已经开始。 一致预期后的变局可 能来自 于商品基本面的易变因素 展望下半年，贸易政策和地缘局势对商品市场的影响或将从预期到现实，而这本身也是不确定性从检验到修正的过程，不同商品基本面所面临的易变因素 可能带来预期差机会，成为一致预期后的市场变局 ...