商品期权隐含波动率
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商品期权周报:2025年第47周-20251123
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-23 12:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market rebounded slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 8.54 million lots and an average daily open interest of 10.19 million lots, showing a month - on - month change of +10.09% and - 0.74% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][9] - Most of the underlying futures of commodity options declined this week, with 48 varieties closing lower. The varieties with relatively high weekly gains were lithium carbonate (+4.19%) and iron ore (+1.68%); those with relatively high weekly losses were silver (-5.62%), pulp (-4.60%), and fuel oil (-4.58%) [2][16] - This week, the implied volatility of 29 commodity options increased weekly, and 17 varieties had their current implied volatility above the 50% quantile of the past year. For varieties with implied volatility at a historical high, beware of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; for those at a historical low, buying options has a relatively high cost - performance [2][16] - The PCR of trading volume of pulp, LPG, soybean meal, live pigs, and manganese silicon is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the PCR of trading volume of styrene, industrial silicon, and pure benzene is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase. The PCR of open interest of p - xylene, lithium carbonate, apples, and iron ore is at a historical high, showing a high - level accumulation of bearish sentiment; while that of glass, plastic, palm oil, methanol, aluminum, and urea is at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of bullish sentiment [3][17] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of actively traded varieties this week included silver (1.09 million lots), lithium carbonate (0.81 million lots), and glass (0.59 million lots). Four varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, including synthetic rubber (+138%), p - xylene (+121%), lithium carbonate (+120%), and industrial silicon (109%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were crude oil (-57%), caustic soda (-52%), and PTA (-42%) [1][9] - The varieties with a relatively high average daily open interest this week were glass (0.96 million lots), soybean meal (0.82 million lots), and soda ash (0.81 million lots). The varieties with a relatively rapid month - on - month increase in average daily open interest were industrial silicon (+49%), p - xylene (+42%), and lithium carbonate (+40%) [1][9] 2. This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 2.1 Underlying Futures Price Movements - Most underlying futures of commodity options declined this week, with 48 varieties closing lower. The varieties with relatively high weekly gains were lithium carbonate (+4.19%) and iron ore (+1.68%); those with relatively high weekly losses were silver (-5.62%), pulp (-4.60%), and fuel oil (-4.58%) [2][16] 2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of 29 commodity options increased weekly, and 17 varieties had their current implied volatility above the 50% quantile of the past year. The implied volatility of lithium carbonate increased by 16.18 percentage points this week. Varieties with implied volatility at a historical high included apples, lithium carbonate, gold, silver, ethylene glycol, and methanol; those at a historical low included urea, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, cotton, manganese silicon, pulp, and rubber [2][16] 2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The PCR of trading volume of pulp, LPG, soybean meal, live pigs, and manganese silicon is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the PCR of trading volume of styrene, industrial silicon, and pure benzene is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase. The PCR of open interest of p - xylene, lithium carbonate, apples, and iron ore is at a historical high, showing a high - level accumulation of bearish sentiment; while that of glass, plastic, palm oil, methanol, aluminum, and urea is at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of bullish sentiment [3][17] 3. Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [21] 3.1 Energy - Relevant charts show data such as the total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR of crude oil [23][25] 3.2 Chemicals - **PTA**: Charts display data on total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR [30][37] - **Caustic Soda**: Similar data is presented through corresponding charts [39][40] - **Glass**: Key data is shown in relevant charts [46][47] - **Soda Ash**: Data is presented via charts [52][53] 3.3 Precious Metals - Charts show data on silver, including total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR [58][59] 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Data such as total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are presented in charts [66][69] - **Manganese Silicon**: Similar data is shown through corresponding charts [74][75] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Charts display data on total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR [82][88] - **Aluminum**: Key data is presented via relevant charts [91][94] 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Data such as total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are shown in charts [100][103] - **Palm Oil**: Similar data is presented through corresponding charts [106][107] - **Cotton**: Key data is shown in relevant charts [114][115]
商品期权周报:2025年第45周-20251109
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-09 14:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market rebounded slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 7.22 million lots and an average daily open interest of 10.01 million lots, showing a week - on - week change of +13.63% and +17.96% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance in terms of price changes. There are opportunities in varieties with high trading activity, and attention should be paid to the risks and opportunities indicated by factors such as price fluctuations, implied volatility, and option market sentiment [1][2][15]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week, the average daily actively - traded varieties included glass (650,000 lots), lithium carbonate (610,000 lots), and polysilicon (520,000 lots). Five varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with asphalt (+161%), ethylene glycol (+158%), and urea (+156%) showing significant growth. The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were p - xylene (-83%), log (-58%), and alumina (-47%) [1][7]. - The varieties with a relatively high average daily open interest were glass (1.05 million lots), soda ash (870,000 lots), and glass (840,000 lots). The varieties with a relatively rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest were synthetic rubber (+83%), styrene (+66%), and LPG (+51%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Changes**: The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed price changes. The varieties with high weekly increases included rapeseed meal (+6.32%), pulp (+3.49%), and urea (+2.58%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included asphalt (-6.04%), polysilicon (-5.66%), and red dates (-5.47%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity option implied volatilities in various sectors decreased this week. Seventeen varieties had their current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. Varieties with implied volatility at a high level in the past year included live pigs, methanol, and asphalt; those at a low level included sugar, tin, cotton, and manganese silicon [2][15]. - **Option Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of varieties such as apples, eggs, lithium carbonate, LPG, and cotton was at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of aluminum, ethylene glycol, and corn was at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ferrosilicon, soybean meal, silver, and lithium carbonate was at a historical high, while that of aluminum, corn, methanol, palm oil, and plastic was at a historical low [2][15]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview - The chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20]. - Specific sub - sections cover energy (crude oil, LPG, etc.), chemicals (PTA, caustic soda, glass, soda ash), precious metals (silver), ferrous metals (iron ore, manganese silicon), non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum), and agricultural products (soybean meal, palm oil, cotton), with corresponding data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR provided [21][28][59][66][82][97].
商品期权周报:2025年第43周-20251026
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-26 14:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (October 20 - October 24, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market declined slightly, with an average daily trading volume of 6.29 million lots and an average daily open interest of 8.95 million lots, showing a -8.93% and +3.79% change respectively compared to the previous period. It is recommended that investors focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, most of the underlying futures of commodity options rose, with 45 varieties closing higher for the week. The energy sector had relatively high weekly gains, while precious metals such as silver and gold had relatively high weekly losses. Most sectors, except for agricultural products, saw an increase in the implied volatility of commodity options this week. It is advisable to be vigilant against unilateral risks and pay attention to opportunities for short - selling volatility or buying options with high cost - effectiveness based on different implied volatility levels [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - This week, the average daily trading volume of the commodity options market decreased by 8.93% compared to the previous period, and the average daily open interest increased by 3.79%. Actively traded varieties included silver, styrene, and glass. The trading volume of lead, double - gum paper, and aluminum alloy increased significantly, while that of polysilicon and industrial silicon decreased significantly. In terms of open interest, varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal, glass, and soda ash. The open interest of double - gum paper, lead, and short - fiber increased rapidly [1][8]. 3.2 Main Data Review of Commodity Options - **Underlying Price Movements**: 45 varieties of underlying futures of commodity options closed higher this week. The energy sector had high weekly gains, with fuel oil (+7.12%), crude oil (+6.87%), and asphalt (+5.23%) leading the way. Silver (-7.49%) and gold (-6.17%) had high weekly losses [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Except for agricultural products, most sectors saw an increase in the implied volatility of commodity options this week. 25 varieties had their current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. Varieties with implied volatility at a one - year high included crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and fuel oil; those at a one - year low included rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and sugar [2][15]. - **Option Market Sentiment**: Varieties such as rapeseed oil, soybean oil, sugar, and live pigs had a high volume PCR, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. Aluminum, alumina, nickel, tin, and copper had a low volume PCR, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. Silver, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, and rapeseed oil had a high open interest PCR, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment, while asphalt, corn, methanol, and alumina had a low open interest PCR, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20]. - **Energy**: Key data such as trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators of energy varieties like crude oil are presented, with relevant charts provided [21][23][25]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Key data and relevant charts of PTA are presented [28][29][35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Key data and relevant charts of caustic soda are presented [37][38][40]. - **Glass**: Key data and relevant charts of glass are presented [44][45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: Key data and relevant charts of soda ash are presented [50][51][52]. - **Precious Metals**: Key data and relevant charts of precious metals such as silver are presented [56][57][58]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Key data and relevant charts of iron ore are presented [62][63][66]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Key data and relevant charts of manganese silicon are presented [70][71][72]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Key data and relevant charts of copper are presented [77][78][83]. - **Aluminum**: Key data and relevant charts of aluminum are presented [85][86][89]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean Meal**: Key data and relevant charts of soybean meal are presented [93][95][96]. - **Palm Oil**: Key data and relevant charts of palm oil are presented [100][101][102]. - **Cotton**: Key data and relevant charts of cotton are presented [114][109][110].
商品期权周报:隐波下降,市场震荡回落-20250825
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 06:43
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the trading volume of commodity options decreased significantly by 24.45% compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 24.29%. The market sentiment of commodity options cooled significantly, and the implied volatility of options generally declined [2][4]. - The implied volatility of lithium carbonate and soda ash options decreased by more than 4 percentage points compared to last Friday and are currently at the 60%-70% and 30%-40% historical quantile levels respectively [2][4]. 3. Summary of Relevant Content Volatility - As of Friday's close, the implied volatility of crude oil options was 28.91%, a decrease of 4.35% from a week ago; lithium carbonate options was 42.69%, a decrease of 5.54%; rebar options was 11.35%, a decrease of 0.46%; soda ash options was 18.20%, a decrease of 1.48%; gold options was 15.51%, a decrease of 0.25%; silver options was 18.06%, a decrease of 0.21%; palm oil options was 15.61%, an increase of 0.14%; soybean oil options was 21.60%, an increase of 2.06%; rapeseed oil options was 19.84%, a decrease of 0.35%; rubber options was 12.69%, a decrease of 2.85% [1][4]. Figures - There are multiple figures in the report, including those showing the trading volume and open interest, implied volatility and historical volatility, skewness structure, and term structure of various commodity options such as crude oil, lithium carbonate, rebar, soda ash, gold, silver, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and rubber [5][13][20].