Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the divergence in commodity markets, highlighting the lack of intrinsic demand momentum as a key obstacle for bullish narratives, contrasting with the robust performance of capital markets [5][6]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is experiencing a split, with bullish sentiment being challenged by a lack of internal demand momentum, which is crucial for sustaining price increases [5]. - In the energy sector, particularly crude oil, rising inventories have weakened bullish momentum, and despite geopolitical tensions, there is no significant bullish trend in prices [6]. - The EIA has revised down its 2025 demand growth forecast to 900,000 barrels per day, likely linked to the U.S. economic outlook, while OPEC's recent decisions to increase production reflect a persistent oversupply situation expected to last until early 2026 [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key judgments to make include whether the market's second pricing of supply pressures and weak demand is nearing a marginal end and if the current downward volatility in commodities has reached a bottom, potentially leading to an upward shift in volatility following the Fed's interest rate decisions [7]. - The article suggests continuing to embrace the bullish logic surrounding precious metals, as the self-fulfilling nature of expectations could drive prices higher, although caution is advised regarding potential corrections following interest rate announcements [8]. - Focus on commodities with bullish trading opportunities, particularly those with supply constraints, such as coking coal and polysilicon, while also monitoring external variables affecting supply [8]. Group 3: Export and Demand Trends - The article highlights that China's export sector shows potential for exceeding expectations, with a reported export value of 17.61 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [9]. - The structure of exports is improving, with high-value and high-tech products seeing significant growth, such as integrated circuits and automotive exports, which are expected to support demand for basic metals [9]. - The diversification of export markets is also noted, with significant growth in trade with emerging markets, particularly ASEAN and Africa, indicating reduced reliance on single markets [9]. Group 4: Specific Commodity Insights - The article points out that global aluminum demand is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year, while production growth remains sluggish at around 1.5%, suggesting potential upward price elasticity for aluminum [10]. - The current visible inventory of aluminum is approximately 1.13 million tons, which, while slightly up from the year's low, remains significantly below levels seen in 2024, indicating a potential for price increases [10]. - The relationship between alumina and aluminum has weakened, suggesting that trading strategies focusing on long aluminum and short alumina could have further potential [10].

(原油) gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月18日 国投期货研究院 隔夜国际油价基本收复此前跌幅，布伦特08合约涨6.47%。伊以冲突仍在持续，在美伊重返谈判泉 前中东供应减量的风险依然存在，霍尔木兹海峡附近电磁波干扰增加，油轮通行量已出现短期回 落。上周美国API原油库存大幅下降1013.3万桶，关注今晚EIA库存表现。原油仍持震荡偏强判断， 投资者仍可继续持有低成本看涨期权应对极端地缘风险。考虑到中东地缘风险升温对中质含统原油 的供应犹动更为直接，中东到中国的油轮运费亦受到支撑，我们相对看涨SC较布伦特的价差。 (责金属) 隔夜黄金震荡，白银延续强势表现。伊以间军事打击延续，目前暂未有明确缓和信号出现，后续发 展尚待观察。本周市场面临美联储议息会议和地缘风险的双击,商品波动率抬升,黄金在前期高点 位置存在阻力，观望为主谨慎参与。 【铜】 隔夜铜价阴线震荡，美国5月零售销售录得年初以来最大降幅，市场关注联储议息会议。国内现铜换 月后沪粤升水低于前期。技术上，伦铜依托MA20日均线稳固震荡,美伦两市显性库存呈强翘翘板效 应,两市合计库存与年初相比减少4-5万吨 ...