Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - The bond market showed a mixed performance last week. Although social financing data increased year-on-year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and credit demand remained weak. The manufacturing PMI was below the boom-bust line, strengthening the market's judgment of weak economic conditions and supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and external uncertainties increased risk aversion, which was also beneficial to the bond market. However, the Lujiazui Forum did not introduce unexpectedly loose measures, cooling the market's expectations of the central bank's bond trading. The bond market generally rose due to the unchanged LPR in June, the weak stock market, and the relatively stable capital situation. The market's expectations for loose policies in the second half of the year increased, and trading in ultra-long-term bonds was active, but overall, it was still affected by the policy vacuum period [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - The monthly Chinese CPI decreased by -0.10% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by -3.30% year-on-year. The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of +0.51%. M2 decreased by -0.10% month-on-month, with a decline rate of -1.25%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of +1.02%. The daily updated indicators included the US Dollar Index, USD/CNH (offshore), SHIBOR 7-day, DR007, R007, AAA-rated negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) 3M, and AA-AAA credit spread (1Y) [8]. 3.2 Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.53 yuan, 106.28 yuan, 109.16 yuan, and 121.29 yuan respectively. The price changes were -0.01%, 0.00%, -0.01%, and -0.04% respectively. The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were -0.068 yuan, -0.049 yuan, -0.087 yuan, and -0.396 yuan respectively [2]. 3.3 Overview of Money Market Capital - On June 23, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 220.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase rates, including 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M, were 1.367%, 1.497%, 1.713%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 3.4 Overview of Spreads - The report provides various spread trend charts, including the inter - delivery spread trends of treasury bond futures, the term spread between spot bonds and cross - variety spreads in futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [7][39][43]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the implied repo rate (IRR) of the TS main contract and the capital rate, the basis spread trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis spread trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [46][49][59]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the implied repo rate (IRR) of the TF main contract and the capital rate, the basis spread trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis spread trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [55][59][61]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the implied repo rate (IRR) of the T main contract and the capital rate, the basis spread trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis spread trend of the T main contract in the past three years [66][69][71]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the implied repo rate (IRR) of the TL main contract and the capital rate, the basis spread trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis spread trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [74][77][80].