1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's FOMC meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity has further heated up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate, Hasset, has an increasing probability of being nominated. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for the trading of liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic macro: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December analyzed and studied the economic work for 2026. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, and the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance will continue. Food prices have rebounded significantly, and prices of household appliances, clothing, airplane tickets, domestic services, and catering have also increased [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous metals like tin and lithium carbonate. Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for industrial commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. On the equity side, the stock index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings have set the tone and is relatively defensive [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Stock index futures**: CSI 300 futures are at 4499.4 with a daily increase of 1.02%, a weekly decrease of 0.14%, a monthly decrease of 2.57%, a quarterly increase of 14.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.75%. Other stock index futures also show different price changes and trends [2]. - **Treasury bond futures**: 2 - year treasury bond futures are at 102.43 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.04%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, a quarterly increase of 0.14%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.53%. Different - term treasury bond futures have different performance [2]. - **Foreign exchange**: The US dollar index is at 98.28 with a daily increase of 0.10%, a weekly increase of 0.226%, a monthly increase of 3%, a quarterly increase of 0.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.40%. Exchange rates between different currencies also show various changes [2]. - **Interest rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is at 1.48 with a daily change of 0 bp, a weekly increase of 2 bp, a monthly decrease of 2 bp, a quarterly increase of 3 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 27 bp. Other interest rates also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Hot industries**: Industries such as comprehensive finance, commerce and trade retail, and consumer services show different price movements and gains or losses in different time periods. For example, the comprehensive finance index is at 880 with a daily increase of 1.139%, a weekly increase of 1.13%, a monthly decrease of 1.78%, a quarterly decrease of 6.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.08% [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 56.68 with a daily decrease of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 51.48%, a monthly decrease of 3.08%, a quarterly increase of 20.225%, and a year - to - date decrease of 21.2%. Different overseas commodities have different price trends [2]. 3.2 Viewpoints on Different Sectors | Sector | Variety | Recent Market Logic | Attention Points | Short - term Judgment | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial | Stock index futures | Technology events catalyze the activity of the growth style | Crowded funds in small - cap stocks | Oscillatory rise | | | Stock index options | The overall market turnover has slightly declined | Insufficient liquidity in the options market | Oscillation | | | Treasury bond futures | The bond market remains weak | Policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises | Oscillation | | Precious metals | Gold/Silver | Geopolitical and trade relations have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals | US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends | Oscillation | | Shipping | Container shipping to Europe | The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and loading pressure lacks upward driving force | The rate of freight decline in September | Oscillation | | Black building materials | Steel, iron ore | The market is still weak, and attention is paid to cost support and demand changes | Special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics | Oscillation | | | Coke | Cost support is strong, and the market oscillates | Steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Coking coal | Supply is difficult to improve, and spot prices continue to rise | Steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Ferrosilicon | Cost support exists, but upward driving force is insufficient | Raw material costs and steel procurement | Oscillation | | | Manganese silicon | Supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the market is under pressure | Cost prices and overseas quotes | Oscillation | | | Glass | Supply cuts have been implemented, and spot prices have risen | Spot sales | Oscillation | | | Soda ash | Downstream replenishment at low prices, and spot prices have slightly increased | Soda ash inventory | Oscillation | | Non - ferrous metals | Copper | Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term | Supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession | Oscillation | | | Aluminum oxide | The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure | Insufficient ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends | Oscillation | | | Aluminum | Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are rising oscillatingly | Macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand | Oscillatory rise | | | Zinc | Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly | Macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply | Oscillation | | Energy and chemical | Crude oil | Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist | OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations | Oscillation | | | LPG | Supply is still in surplus, and attention is paid to cost developments | Cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane | Oscillation | | | Asphalt | Asphalt futures prices may test the 3200 resistance level again | Sanctions and supply disruptions | Oscillatory decline | | | High - sulfur fuel oil | The fuel oil market oscillates weakly | Geopolitics and crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Low - sulfur fuel oil | Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates weakly | Crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Methanol | There is some support at the 2100 level, and methanol oscillates | Macro - energy and overseas dynamics | Oscillation | | | Urea | High inventory suppresses while cost supports, and it oscillates narrowly | Coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference | Oscillation | | | Ethylene glycol | The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimism is hard to reverse | Fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions | Oscillatory decline | | | PX | The market lacks clear guidance, and cost and sentiment compete to maintain oscillation | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | PTA | Xin Fengming starts new and stops old, and short - term new supply is limited | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | Short - fiber | Downstream factories are digesting previous inventories, and processing fees are expected to be compressed | Downstream yarn mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand | Oscillation | | | Bottle - grade polyester chips | Cost is stalemate, and supply - demand driving force is limited | Implementation of bottle - grade polyester chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning | Oscillation | | | Propylene | Downstream transactions have limited improvement, and the market oscillates | Oil prices and domestic macro - situation | Oscillation | | | PP | Fundamental support is limited, and PP weakens | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Plastic | Maintenance has decreased in the short term, and the plastic market is in a weak pattern | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Styrene | There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene oscillates weakly | Oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics | Oscillatory decline | | | PVC | Market sentiment has cooled, and PVC oscillates weakly | Expectations, costs, and supply | Oscillation | | | Caustic soda | Low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates | Market sentiment, production start - up, and demand | Oscillation | | Agriculture | Oils and fats | Market sentiment has improved, waiting for positive factors to ferment | US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data | Oscillation | | | Protein meal | Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong | Weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars | Oscillatory rise | | | Corn/starch | Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates | Demand, macro - situation, and weather | Oscillation | | | Live pigs | Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices oscillate | Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies | Oscillatory decline | | | Natural rubber | The market oscillates and adjusts, and the bearish sentiment remains | Producing area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes | Oscillatory decline | | | Synthetic rubber | It has rebounded from the bottom, and attention is paid to changes in trading sentiment | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil | Oscillatory decline | | | Cotton | The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space | Demand and inventory | Oscillation | | | Sugar | The idea of shorting at high prices is maintained | Imports and Brazilian production | Oscillatory decline | | | Pulp | The market volume has increased, and the enthusiasm for spot - futures arbitrage has risen | Macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes | Oscillation | | | Offset printing paper | Offset printing paper follows the pulp market and strengthens | Production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production start - up dynamics | Oscillation | | | Logs | Logs oscillate at the bottom | Special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume | Oscillation | [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, with the stock index having a short - term oscillatory rebound; attention should be paid to the domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies later [3][4] - Precious metals are expected to have a short - term oscillatory rebound and a long - term upward trend [5] - For the black commodity sector, it will be in short - term oscillation; the non - ferrous sector will have a short - term oscillatory rebound; the energy and chemical sector will be in short - term oscillation; and the precious metals sector will have a short - term oscillatory rebound [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The market anticipates that a large amount of economic data to be released after the US government reopens will strengthen the Fed's expectation of a December interest rate cut, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an overall increase in global risk appetite [3] - Domestic: China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and exports decreased unexpectedly, but inflation data rebounded beyond expectations, and the central bank's policy increased liquidity, boosting domestic risk appetite [3] Equity Index - Affected by sectors such as cultivated diamonds, photovoltaics, and batteries, the domestic stock market declined slightly. With short - term macro upward driving force increasing, the stock index will have a short - term oscillatory rebound, but attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and policy implementation later [4] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Wednesday night. Due to the decline in US Treasury yields and the weakening of the US dollar index, the precious metals market is expected to have a short - term oscillatory rebound, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [5] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to oscillate at the bottom. In November, the macro - policy was in a vacuum period, demand weakened, and supply was restricted. The steel market will continue to oscillate in the short term, and the decline space below 3000 points for rebar is limited [8] - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded on Wednesday. Although the Simandou iron ore was put into production, the market had already priced in some of the negative news. The key factor for the iron ore price is the decline process and the bottom of pig iron production, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined to varying degrees on Wednesday. Affected by the decline in coal prices and the decrease in demand, the prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [9] Chemicals - Soda Ash: The main contract of soda ash oscillated on Wednesday. Supply increased, and there is a capacity expansion plan in the fourth quarter. With stable demand, the supply pressure remains, and a bearish view is recommended in the medium - to - long term [10] - Glass: The main contract of glass oscillated in a range on Wednesday. Supply remained stable, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Supported by anti - involution policies, it is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term oscillatory range [11] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The Fed has increasing differences on the December interest rate cut. US copper inventories are at a historical high, and domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine will support the price, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [12] - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price rose strongly on Wednesday. The market sentiment is positive, but there are concerns about future supply. It is expected to be strong in the short term, but there may be a significant correction later [12] - Tin: The supply of tin is still tight, and demand is weak. The social inventory of tin ingots has increased. The tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - to - short term [13] - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate declined on Wednesday. The market digested the negative news quickly, and the demand logic dominates. It is expected to oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to supply disturbances and hedging pressure [15] - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon declined on Wednesday. After the end of the wet season, production decreased, and demand was stable. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is advisable to operate within the range and buy on dips [15] - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Wednesday. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and it is advisable to buy on dips [16] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC indicates that global oil supply exceeds demand earlier than expected, and the market is under bearish pressure due to the lack of positive catalysts and stable geopolitical risks [17] - Asphalt: Asphalt prices fell again following crude oil. With weakening cost support and demand, it will continue to explore the bottom, and inventory pressure is increasing [17] - PX: The polyester sector's previous positive factors have been priced in, and terminal demand has declined slightly. PX is still in a tight supply situation, and its price is mainly driven by crude oil cost fluctuations [18] - PTA: Affected by crude oil prices and terminal demand, the expected inventory accumulation in November - December has decreased, but there is still downward pressure in the later period [19] - Ethylene Glycol: The main contract of ethylene glycol continued to decline. Port inventory has increased significantly, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in mid - to - late November [19] - Short - fiber: Short - fiber prices declined slightly following the polyester sector, and there is still significant pressure in the later period, with limited upward space [19] - Methanol: The domestic methanol market was stable, and the port market was weak. Inventory increased both inland and at ports. The price is expected to oscillate downward in the short term, but the decline rate may slow down [20] - PP: The PP price oscillated weakly. Demand improved, but supply growth led to inventory increase. With the approaching of the off - season, the price is expected to continue to decline [21] - LLDPE: The LLDPE price was adjusted. Supply pressure continued to accumulate, demand weakened, and the price is expected to remain under pressure [22] - Urea: The domestic urea market was stable with a slight decline. Supply is expected to increase, demand is differentiated, and the price is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term [23] Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The CBOT soybean price rose overnight. The market is optimistic about the repair of Sino - US soybean trade relations. Attention should be paid to the USDA report, and if the single - yield is lowered, the US soybean's ending inventory will shrink [24] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the basis is weak. With the repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the import cost of domestic soybeans has increased, and the inventory may rise. Rapeseed meal generally follows the soybean meal market [24] - Oils: Palm oil prices stabilized with cost fluctuations. It is in the production - reduction cycle, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains. Soybean oil's supply - demand pressure has been relieved, and rapeseed oil's inventory has decreased, with a strong basis [25] - Corn: The futures price of corn has been rising recently, driving up the price in the Northeast. With low inventory and increasing processing profits, the price is expected to remain strong [25] - Hogs: The average price of live hogs declined. Supply is loose, but demand is expected to increase seasonally. The price is expected to be weakly stable, and there may be strong support under the futures discount [26][27]