商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询证号：Z0022217 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：lizy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, with the stock index having a short - term oscillatory rebound; attention should be paid to the domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies later [3][4] - Precious metals are expected to have a short - term oscillatory rebound and a long - term upward trend [5] - For the black commodity sector, it will be in short - term oscillation; the non - ferrous sector will have a short - term oscillatory rebound; the energy and chemical sector will be in short - term oscillation; and the precious metals sector will have a short - term oscillatory rebound [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The market anticipates that a large amount of economic data to be released after the US government reopens will strengthen the Fed's expectation of a December interest rate cut, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an overall increase in global risk appetite [3] - Domestic: China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and exports decreased unexpectedly, but inflation data rebounded beyond expectations, and the central bank's policy increased liquidity, boosting domestic risk appetite [3] Equity Index - Affected by sectors such as cultivated diamonds, photovoltaics, and batteries, the domestic stock market declined slightly. With short - term macro upward driving force increasing, the stock index will have a short - term oscillatory rebound, but attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and policy implementation later [4] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Wednesday night. Due to the decline in US Treasury yields and the weakening of the US dollar index, the precious metals market is expected to have a short - term oscillatory rebound, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [5] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to oscillate at the bottom. In November, the macro - policy was in a vacuum period, demand weakened, and supply was restricted. The steel market will continue to oscillate in the short term, and the decline space below 3000 points for rebar is limited [8] - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded on Wednesday. Although the Simandou iron ore was put into production, the market had already priced in some of the negative news. The key factor for the iron ore price is the decline process and the bottom of pig iron production, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined to varying degrees on Wednesday. Affected by the decline in coal prices and the decrease in demand, the prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [9] Chemicals - Soda Ash: The main contract of soda ash oscillated on Wednesday. Supply increased, and there is a capacity expansion plan in the fourth quarter. With stable demand, the supply pressure remains, and a bearish view is recommended in the medium - to - long term [10] - Glass: The main contract of glass oscillated in a range on Wednesday. Supply remained stable, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Supported by anti - involution policies, it is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term oscillatory range [11] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The Fed has increasing differences on the December interest rate cut. US copper inventories are at a historical high, and domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine will support the price, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [12] - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price rose strongly on Wednesday. The market sentiment is positive, but there are concerns about future supply. It is expected to be strong in the short term, but there may be a significant correction later [12] - Tin: The supply of tin is still tight, and demand is weak. The social inventory of tin ingots has increased. The tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - to - short term [13] - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate declined on Wednesday. The market digested the negative news quickly, and the demand logic dominates. It is expected to oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to supply disturbances and hedging pressure [15] - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon declined on Wednesday. After the end of the wet season, production decreased, and demand was stable. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is advisable to operate within the range and buy on dips [15] - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Wednesday. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and it is advisable to buy on dips [16] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC indicates that global oil supply exceeds demand earlier than expected, and the market is under bearish pressure due to the lack of positive catalysts and stable geopolitical risks [17] - Asphalt: Asphalt prices fell again following crude oil. With weakening cost support and demand, it will continue to explore the bottom, and inventory pressure is increasing [17] - PX: The polyester sector's previous positive factors have been priced in, and terminal demand has declined slightly. PX is still in a tight supply situation, and its price is mainly driven by crude oil cost fluctuations [18] - PTA: Affected by crude oil prices and terminal demand, the expected inventory accumulation in November - December has decreased, but there is still downward pressure in the later period [19] - Ethylene Glycol: The main contract of ethylene glycol continued to decline. Port inventory has increased significantly, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in mid - to - late November [19] - Short - fiber: Short - fiber prices declined slightly following the polyester sector, and there is still significant pressure in the later period, with limited upward space [19] - Methanol: The domestic methanol market was stable, and the port market was weak. Inventory increased both inland and at ports. The price is expected to oscillate downward in the short term, but the decline rate may slow down [20] - PP: The PP price oscillated weakly. Demand improved, but supply growth led to inventory increase. With the approaching of the off - season, the price is expected to continue to decline [21] - LLDPE: The LLDPE price was adjusted. Supply pressure continued to accumulate, demand weakened, and the price is expected to remain under pressure [22] - Urea: The domestic urea market was stable with a slight decline. Supply is expected to increase, demand is differentiated, and the price is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term [23] Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The CBOT soybean price rose overnight. The market is optimistic about the repair of Sino - US soybean trade relations. Attention should be paid to the USDA report, and if the single - yield is lowered, the US soybean's ending inventory will shrink [24] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the basis is weak. With the repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the import cost of domestic soybeans has increased, and the inventory may rise. Rapeseed meal generally follows the soybean meal market [24] - Oils: Palm oil prices stabilized with cost fluctuations. It is in the production - reduction cycle, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains. Soybean oil's supply - demand pressure has been relieved, and rapeseed oil's inventory has decreased, with a strong basis [25] - Corn: The futures price of corn has been rising recently, driving up the price in the Northeast. With low inventory and increasing processing profits, the price is expected to remain strong [25] - Hogs: The average price of live hogs declined. Supply is loose, but demand is expected to increase seasonally. The price is expected to be weakly stable, and there may be strong support under the futures discount [26][27]

Group 1: Economic Growth and Trade - China's economic growth target for 2025 is set at around 5% [2] - GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8%, with an average of 5.2% [2] - Domestic fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year during the same period, indicating steady domestic demand [2] - Exports rose by 6.1% year-on-year from January to September, aided by the easing of US-China trade tensions [2][3] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - A meeting between the US and Chinese leaders on October 30 resulted in the cancellation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a one-year suspension of a 24% tariff [3] - The easing of trade tensions has alleviated market concerns and increased risk appetite, contributing to a rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations - The necessity for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut has decreased, with the current RRR at 9% [4] - The likelihood of further RRR cuts this year is low due to the current economic conditions and the easing of trade tensions [4] - The central bank has resumed trading in government bonds, which serves as an alternative to RRR cuts for liquidity management [4] - Increased operations in reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) indicate a compensatory measure for the market [4] - Overall, the expectation of monetary easing is diminishing, leading to a potential decline in government bond futures prices in the fourth quarter [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant economic growth expected in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an estimated economic increment exceeding 35 trillion yuan, showcasing the country's resilience and contribution to global economic growth [1][9]. Economic Growth and Contributions - China's economic increment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is projected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, with an average economic growth rate of 5.5% from 2021 to 2024 [2][11]. - By the end of 2024, China's total economic output is expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan, marking a substantial increase from previous years [9][10]. - China has maintained a contribution rate of around 30% to global economic growth, emphasizing its role as a major player in the world economy [11]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand is projected to contribute an average of 86.4% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024, with final consumption accounting for an average contribution rate of 56.2%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [12][13]. - Investment in high-tech industries has consistently outpaced overall investment growth, reflecting a strategic focus on optimizing supply structures [13][14]. Social and Economic Indicators - The number of private enterprises has increased by over 40% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," reaching more than 58 million [16]. - The average life expectancy in China has risen to 79 years, indicating improvements in public health and living standards [16]. - The cumulative reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP over four years is 11.6%, equivalent to a decrease of 1.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions [16]. Infrastructure and Employment - The logistics cost savings for society are projected to exceed 400 billion yuan by 2024, with an additional expected savings of around 300 billion yuan this year [16]. - Urban employment has remained stable, with over 12 million new jobs created annually since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant economic growth and achievements of China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the expected economic increment and the contributions of domestic demand to overall growth [2][4]. Economic Growth - The economic increment over the past five years is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, with the total economic volume projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan by the end of this year [2][4]. - This increment is comparable to recreating the "Yangtze River Delta" or the combined economic volume of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, which are the top three provinces in terms of economic output [3]. Contribution of Domestic Demand - Domestic demand has contributed an average of 86.4% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024, emphasizing the importance of a strong domestic market for a stable economy [5]. - Final consumption has accounted for an average contribution of 56.2% to economic growth, which is an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [6]. Investment Trends - Investment has contributed an average of 30.2% to economic growth, focusing on optimizing supply structure and enhancing long-term development [7]. - High-tech industry investments have consistently outpaced overall investment growth, indicating a shift towards more advanced sectors [7]. Social and Economic Progress - The article highlights the progress in various social and economic goals, including the establishment of a unified national market and the increase in the number of private enterprises to over 58 million, a growth of more than 40% since the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [9]. - The reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP by 11.6% over four years reflects China's commitment to its "dual carbon" goals, equating to a reduction of 1.1 billion tons of CO2 emissions [9]. Infrastructure and Employment - The logistics costs have been reduced by over 400 billion yuan, with an additional expected savings of around 300 billion yuan this year, showcasing improvements in infrastructure efficiency [10]. - The annual urban employment has remained stable at over 12 million, contributing to relatively full employment in a country with a population exceeding 1.4 billion [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of Bank Indonesia emphasizes the need to strengthen domestic economic growth to mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariffs [1] Group 1 - The Indonesian central bank is focusing on enhancing economic resilience in response to external pressures, particularly from U.S. trade policies [1] - Strengthening domestic growth is seen as a crucial strategy to counterbalance the adverse effects of tariffs imposed by the United States [1]

Global Economy and Inflation - Global economic activity is on the rise, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaging 791.6 points as of February 14, 2025, an increase of 17.60 points from the previous week [3][14] - The CRB Commodity Price Index averaged 312.46 points during the same period, up by 4.23 points week-on-week, indicating rising inflation levels [3][18] Domestic Economy and Inflation - China's official manufacturing PMI for January 2025 is at 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [4][23] - The average price of pork in China was 28.24 yuan per kilogram as of February 6, 2025, a decrease of 0.06 yuan from the previous week, reflecting stable inflation [4][31] Industrial Production - The operating rate of high furnaces in China was 78% as of February 14, 2025, unchanged from the previous week, indicating stable industrial production [5][39] - The operating rate for rebar in major steel mills increased by 0.64 percentage points to 34.76% [5][40] Consumption - Essential goods consumption remains stable, with the Keqiao Textile Price Index at 104.07 points as of January 27, 2025, down 0.24 points from the previous week [6][52] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in China decreased to 24,400 units as of February 9, 2025, down by 40,700 units from the previous week, indicating a decline in discretionary spending [6][57] Investment - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities averaged 164,900 square meters per day as of February 16, 2025, an increase of 71,000 square meters from the previous week [7][61] - The operating rate of PTA in China was 82.33% as of February 13, 2025, up by 1.04 percentage points, indicating a strengthening manufacturing sector [7][43] Exports - The export container freight index was 1,387.16 points as of February 14, 2025, down by 27.87 points, reflecting a slight decline in export activity [8][75] - The foreign trade cargo throughput at major Chinese ports was 18,710.3 million tons for the week ending February 9, 2025, an increase of 3.46 million tons from the previous week [8][76] Emerging Industries - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached an average of 5,114.15 points as of February 14, 2025, an increase of 95.19 points, indicating a rising sentiment in the semiconductor sector [9][78] - The production of integrated circuits in China for the year ending December 2024 was 45,142,296.5 million pieces, up 22.20% year-on-year, reflecting strong growth in the electronics sector [9][83]