Wind数据显示，神玉飞管理贝莱德中国新视野混合基金和贝莱德行业优选混合基金的任职回报分别为22.18%和-1.34%。 | 离任基金经理姓名 | 神玉飞 | | --- | --- | | 离任原因 | 个人原因 | | 离任日期 | 2025-09-18 | | 转任本公司其他工作岗位的说 | | | 明 | | | 是否已按规定在中国证券投资 | 是 | | 基金业协会办理变更手续 | | | 是否已按规定在中国证券投资 | | | 基金业协会办理注销手续 | | 公开资料显示，神玉飞是贝莱德基金的首席权益投资官，此前曾任银河基金宏观策略研究员、行业研究员、基金经理助理以及基金经理等职务，主要从事宏 观策略行业研究，股票投资策略研究以及银河基金研究部管理工作。 近期，贝莱德基金除了神玉飞清仓卸任基金以外，基金经理李倩和杨栋也纷纷清仓卸任基金。 6月26日，贝莱德港股通远景视野混合基金发布公告称，基金经理杨栋因个人原因离任，这位基金经理仅在管1只产品，任职回报为-13.22%。 8月16日，贝莱德基金发布公告称，基金经理李倩因个人原因离任贝莱德中债0-3年政金债指数基金、贝莱德欣悦丰利债券基金、贝莱德浦悦 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, suggesting holding [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Suggesting range trading; bearish on near-term glass contracts [1][8] - Non-ferrous Metals: Suggesting moderately holding long positions at low levels for copper; buying on dips for aluminum; suggesting range trading for nickel and tin; buying on dips for silver and gold after price corrections [1][10] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; soda ash suggests a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy; other products are mostly expected to oscillate [1][19] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate strongly; apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate [1][34] - Agricultural and Livestock: Bearish on pigs and eggs when prices are high; corn is expected to oscillate within a range; soybean meal is expected to have limited upside; oils are expected to oscillate at high levels [1][38] Core Views - The global stock market has shown a synchronized upward trend after the tariff conflict, mainly due to the global pricing of interest rate cut expectations and the recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The A-share market is expected to enter an upward trend, with the realization of profit improvement expectations as the main driver in the next stage [5] - The bond market shows a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market is under pressure from the strong performance of the equity market, there is still room for the central bank to increase its holdings of treasury bonds, and the market expects a bond market recovery [5][6] - The prices of black building materials such as coking coal, steel, and glass are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and safety inspections, and are expected to maintain an oscillating or weakening trend in the short term [7][8] - The prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are influenced by factors such as global central bank policies, supply and demand, and inventory. Some metals are expected to have upward potential in the future [10][11] - The prices of energy and chemical products such as PVC, caustic soda, and styrene are affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and macro policies, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [19][22] - The prices of agricultural products such as cotton, apples, and jujubes are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, and are expected to oscillate or show a strong oscillating trend [34][35] - The prices of agricultural and livestock products such as pigs, eggs, and corn are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and consumption seasons, and are expected to show different trends in the short and long term [38][40] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Stock Indices: On Tuesday, the market oscillated and adjusted, with the three major indices showing different trends. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 10 consecutive days. The market is expected to enter an upward trend, and investors should maintain positions, choose opportunities, and make appropriate internal high-low switches [5] - Treasury Bonds: On Tuesday, the bond market showed a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market was under pressure from the equity market, the news that the central bank has room to increase its holdings of treasury bonds boosted the bond market. The bond market is expected to recover [5][6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: On August 25, coal prices continued to decline, with the sales atmosphere being cold and the decline slightly increasing. The downstream market has a low willingness to purchase, and safety inspections continue to be upgraded. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [7] - Steel: On Tuesday, steel futures prices were weak. The supply and demand in the real economy have weakened, but the off-season is coming to an end. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [8] - Glass: On August 26, glass futures declined. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices. The near-term contract is expected to decline slightly, while the long-term contract can be observed for signs of stabilization [8] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: After the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell's dovish remarks boosted copper prices. The domestic market demand has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with a suggested strategy of moderately holding long positions at low levels [10] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the production and transportation have been affected by the rainy season. The domestic downstream demand is expected to enter the peak season, and the inventory has shown marginal improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [11] - Nickel: The price of nickel ore is expected to remain stable, and the refined nickel market is in a surplus situation. The price of nickel iron is stable, and the price of stainless steel has declined. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium and long term [14][15] - Tin: The domestic refined tin production has increased, and the import of tin concentrate has decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15] - Silver and Gold: Powell's dovish remarks at the central bank summit have increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The trade negotiation results have been announced, and the market is optimistic about the signing of a trade agreement between Europe and the United States. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real estate market and exports. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy and cost disturbances [19][20] - Caustic Soda: The spot price increase has slowed down, and there is a short-term callback due to warehouse receipt factors. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and export conditions [22] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply and demand are expected to be weak, and the macro policy is favorable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and pure benzene supply [24] - Rubber: The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little, and the inventory has decreased. The tire companies' willingness to purchase high-priced raw materials has decreased. It is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26] - Urea: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, the compound fertilizer inventory is high, and the enterprise inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price support level [28] - Methanol: The supply has increased slightly, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate due to the influence of industrial product prices [29][30] - Polyolefins: The cost is supported by coal-based olefins, the supply of polyethylene has decreased due to maintenance, the downstream demand has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the L contract is expected to have stronger support [30][31] - Soda Ash: The spot market is still sluggish, and the 09 contract faces delivery pressure. The supply is still at a high level, and the downstream demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to implement a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, the macro environment has become better, and the peak season is approaching. The cotton price is expected to be strong [34][35] - Apples: The early-maturing apples are on the market, with the quality and price varying. The inventory of Fuji apples is stable and light. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating trend based on low inventory and growth factors [35] - Jujubes: The jujube trees are in the fruit expansion period, and the weather may affect the quality. The market price is expected to oscillate upward in the near term [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The market has a bullish expectation for the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the spot performance is disappointing. The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to take a short position on the 11 and 01 contracts and consider a long 05 and short 03 arbitrage strategy [38][40] - Eggs: The current main contract has a large premium. The spot price may rebound slightly, and it is recommended to short when the price rebounds. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to factors such as chicken culling and cold storage eggs [40][42] - Corn: The new corn is about to be listed, and the supply is expected to increase. The cost has decreased, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds or implement a 11-1 reverse arbitrage strategy [42][44] - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure from state reserves. However, the cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [44][45] - Oils: The prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and policies. They are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a rolling long strategy. Attention should be paid to the palm oil 1-5 spread arbitrage opportunity [46][51]

Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares have shown strong performance since August, driven by improved global manufacturing sentiment and rising domestic demand[3] - The overall valuation of the TMT and military sectors has reached historical highs, indicating limited room for further expansion[4] - The shift from small-cap growth represented by the National Index 2000 to large-cap growth represented by the ChiNext Index is evident, reflecting accelerated industry rotation[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing sector's profitability is expected to improve, with the lower limit of net profit margins confirmed by February 2025[4] - As of July, the electricity consumption in the secondary industry has shown a continuous recovery for five months, indicating a positive trend in production activity[4] - The average ROE for non-financial companies in the A-share market is projected to improve in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, suggesting a broadening of profit recovery across sectors[4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery, such as industrial metals and capital goods, as they are expected to see increased demand[5] - The insurance sector is likely to benefit from capital returns reaching a bottom, alongside brokerage firms[5] - Opportunities in domestic demand-related sectors are emerging, particularly in food and beverage and electric equipment, as large-cap stocks begin to outperform[5] Group 4: Risks - There is a risk that domestic economic recovery may fall short of expectations, which could impact market performance[6] - A significant downturn in the global economy could also pose risks to the A-share market[6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the opportunities and challenges for Chinese enterprises in overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) by 2025, highlighting the significant changes in global trade dynamics and the need for compliance, financing, and transaction structuring considerations [1][5][11]. Group 1: M&A Market Overview - As of June 2025, M&A transactions involving Chinese mainland companies accounted for 13% of the global market share, totaling $252 billion, a 130% increase year-over-year, with transaction numbers up by 13% [6]. - The number of mega-deals (over $5 billion) globally increased by 67% compared to the previous year, while transactions over $1 billion involving Chinese mainland companies surged by 440% [6]. - However, cross-border transactions involving Chinese mainland companies totaled $7.4 billion, a decrease of 32% from the previous year, with Sino-American cross-border M&A down by 30% [6]. Group 2: Regional Insights and Trends - Southeast Asia has seen nearly $500 billion in cross-border M&A over the past decade, primarily in high-tech, finance, and industrial sectors, with Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia being popular target countries [6]. - Indonesia is highlighted as a growing market with a young workforce and a projected economy ranking seventh globally by 2030, attracting more companies for investment [12]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The article outlines the risks and challenges of entering the Indonesian market, including significant changes in economic trends and industry distributions, particularly in infrastructure and public construction [12]. - Legal considerations for investments in Indonesia are emphasized, including requirements for LLCs and specific industry regulations [12]. Group 4: Strategic Insights - The article notes that Chinese enterprises are increasingly adopting strategies such as nearshoring and brand acquisitions to navigate global tariff challenges, with examples of companies successfully leveraging local production to reduce costs [19]. - The importance of risk management tools is highlighted, with companies utilizing geopolitical due diligence and digital tools to monitor tariff policies and streamline decision-making processes [19].

Market Overview - The US dollar index declined by 0.56%, closing at 98.17, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts following comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - Spot gold prices fell by 0.35%, ending at $3368.97 per ounce after reaching a near two-week high, marking the end of a four-day rally [1][2] - Spot silver remained relatively stable, closing up 0.05% at $37.809 per ounce [1][2] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical tension between the US and Russia is intensifying, with President Trump indicating a potential three-party summit next week, while Senator Rubio warned of possible secondary sanctions against Russia within 24-36 hours, creating a mixed risk environment that raises safe-haven premiums [3] - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve policy are increasing, with Kashkari advocating for two interest rate cuts this year, which reinforces easing expectations, while Trump's potential appointment of a temporary Fed board member poses risks to the credibility of monetary policy [3] Commodity Trading Insights - Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern in the short term, with gold's safe-haven premium strengthening [4] - A strong support level for gold is identified around $3400, while a resistance level is seen near $3450, which may present a breakthrough opportunity [4] - Silver, despite facing pressure from tariffs affecting industrial demand, could see a rebound if it holds above the critical support level of $37, with potential to challenge the $38 mark [4]

Group 1 - Procter & Gamble reported a net sales of $84.284 billion for fiscal year 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.29%, and a net profit of $16.065 billion, up 7.29% year-on-year [1] - The company indicated that the overall sales volume remained stable due to price increases driven by cost pressures from tariffs and other factors [1][2] - Procter & Gamble's CFO noted that despite significant investments in local production, some materials still need to be imported, leading to ongoing tariff pressures [1] Group 2 - Procter & Gamble plans to raise prices on about 25% of its products in the U.S. by approximately 5% starting in August to offset new tariff costs [2] - Other consumer goods companies, such as Hasbro, have also acknowledged the inevitability of price increases due to tariff-related costs, with potential profit reductions of $60 million to $180 million [3] - Nike has already increased prices on certain footwear and apparel due to tariffs, while Skechers warned that high tariffs could significantly impact its business operations and lead to price hikes and reduced sales [4] Group 3 - Adidas expects to see an increase in product costs by €200 million in the U.S. due to tariffs, reflecting the broader impact of tariff policies on the industry [4]

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is negotiating with the Trump administration to resolve tariff conflicts, with a deadline set for August 1 [1] - Major Canadian exports such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles face high tariff threats, but approximately 80% of exports to the U.S. meet the USMCA's duty-free standards [1] - Economists predict that even if a new agreement is reached, it may not completely eliminate Canada's tariff burdens [1] Group 2 - National Bank Financial's economist Ethan Currie suggests that the new agreement is unlikely to fully relieve Canada's tariff pressures, predicting that the Bank of Canada may cut interest rates up to two more times due to ongoing trade uncertainties [1] - Conversely, Royal Bank of Canada's economist Claire Fan believes that the Bank of Canada will not further lower interest rates, arguing that the effects of previous rate cuts have not fully transmitted to the economy [1] - Fan also indicates that the upcoming fall budget from the Liberal government may allocate hundreds of billions of Canadian dollars in new spending to mitigate the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing-driven economy [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the precious metals market was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and Trump's tariffs, with increased market volatility, and the silver price fluctuated more significantly. The Shanghai Silver market continued its strong trend, and market activity increased significantly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview and Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the price difference between the near - month contract 2508 and the main contract 2509 of Shanghai Silver futures was 16 points, and the overall market volatility was not large. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 9246, up 123 points or 1.35%, with a trading volume of 90514 and an amplitude of 2.05%, and a position of 136900. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2509 was 9262, up 129 points or 1.41%, with a trading volume of 14917, an amplitude of 2.01%, and a position of 35200 [3]. 3.2 Influence Factor Analysis - **International Aspect**: On the 18th local time, US President Trump urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates on social media. Recently, Trump has repeatedly pressured Powell to cut interest rates. On July 15, Trump said that the Fed should cut interest rates by 3 percentage points, which could save one trillion dollars a year [9][10]. - **Data Aspect**: In June, the US PPI was flat month - on - month, and the May data was revised up to a 0.3% increase. It was the mildest annual increase since last September, up 2.3% year - on - year. The core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, was also flat, up 2.5% year - on - year, the smallest increase since the end of 2023. The previously released CPI increased by 0.3% monthly [10]. - **Tariff Aspect**: The current breakthrough in the market may be driven by the intensification of tariff conflicts. After Trump announced a 30% tariff increase on Mexico and the EU, Mexico quickly condemned it as "unfair treatment" and launched an anti - dumping investigation on caustic soda, with the possibility of further escalation of policy confrontation [10]. 3.3 Conclusion and Outlook Trump's renewed pressure on Powell to cut interest rates soon boosted the silver price to a certain extent. However, the good economic data released by the US last week cooled the expectations of interest - rate cuts, and the US dollar rebounded. In the short - term, the silver price will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump to impose a 25% tariff on South Korean products poses significant challenges for the newly elected President Lee Jae-myung, complicating his efforts to address domestic issues while facing external pressures [4][6]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on South Korea - The 25% tariff is a strategic pressure tactic by the U.S., with South Korea serving as a demonstration target for other nations [6]. - If implemented, the automotive industry in South Korea will be severely affected, with annual exports to the U.S. amounting to $34.7 billion, nearly half of its total automotive exports [10]. - The cost per vehicle for Hyundai could increase by approximately $3,800, leading to a profit margin reduction of over 30% [10]. Group 2: South Korea's Response - The South Korean government is attempting to frame the tariff threat as a temporary measure and has committed to urgent negotiations before August 1 [12]. - A domestic industry rescue fund of 30 trillion won has been initiated to mitigate the impact of the tariffs [12]. - Despite having a 40% share in the global memory chip market and a quarter of the U.S. electric vehicle battery market, South Korea's leverage is limited due to its military and financial dependence on the U.S. [12][14]. Group 3: Diplomatic and Economic Context - The recent tariff conflict reflects deeper issues in the U.S.-South Korea alliance, with South Korea's trade deficit with the U.S. reaching $66 billion in 2024, primarily in the automotive sector [15]. - The exclusion of South Korea from tariff exemptions, while other countries like the UK and Vietnam were granted such exemptions, has sparked significant domestic outrage [15]. - International reactions include criticism from Brazil and the EU, with potential retaliatory measures being discussed by other nations, indicating a broader economic impact [15].

Group 1 - The report covers the performance of the Dongfanghong Yixin Pure Bond Fund for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting its investment strategy and financial indicators [1][2][3]. - The fund aims for long-term stable returns through effective allocation of bond portfolios based on various market factors [3][4]. - The fund's total share at the end of the reporting period was approximately 1.6 billion shares [3]. Group 2 - The fund's net value growth rates for different classes during the reporting period were: A class at 0.95%, C class at 0.91%, and E class at 0.90%, with the benchmark return at 1.06% [17]. - The fund's investment strategy focuses on investment-grade credit bonds, adjusting the duration significantly in response to market conditions [15][16]. - The fund's total assets in bonds amounted to approximately 1.84 billion yuan, representing 98.97% of the total fund assets [18]. Group 3 - The fund management company, Shanghai Dongfang Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd., emphasizes compliance with relevant laws and regulations while managing the fund [14]. - The fund has not engaged in any stock investments, maintaining a pure bond investment strategy [18][19]. - The report indicates that there were no significant trading anomalies or regulatory issues affecting the fund during the reporting period [14][20].