2025年的市场有两个比较明显的分水岭。第一个是今年四月初，关税事件落地。 如果站在2024年年底展望2025年，最大的风险事件就是关税问题，尤其是2024年10月份美国政府换届选 举之后，市场普遍预期今年可能会出现关税相关的突发性事件。因此，今年一季度市场走势相对震荡、 纠结，直到四月初关税事件落地，大盘出现了较快下跌。 当然，一季度市场也存在一些结构性行情。比如国内的deepseek、机器人等领域，在产业趋势的催化 下，科技成长板块中仍有不少可挖掘的机会。 但四月的关税事件，是影响巨大的分水岭，整个市场迎来了快速下跌。关税落地初期，大家普遍担忧出 口导向型行业，可能会面临较大问题，这种担忧其实是比较正常的。 但后续我们发现，这一轮关税冲突的进程比2018年快很多——双方在几天之内就将关税加到了较高水 平，随后很快进入谈判阶段。短期之内双边仍存在较强的依赖性，双方都有着较深的联系。因此，关税 问题后续进入谈判阶段，双边关系也有所修复和缓和。再叠加二季度英伟达GB200机柜进入加速出货阶 段，所以二季度和三季度，整个A股产业链中，光模块、服务器、光纤光缆等相关公司的股价表现非常 突出。如果大家在二三季度配置了 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's FOMC meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity has further heated up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate, Hasset, has an increasing probability of being nominated. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for the trading of liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic macro: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December analyzed and studied the economic work for 2026. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, and the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance will continue. Food prices have rebounded significantly, and prices of household appliances, clothing, airplane tickets, domestic services, and catering have also increased [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous metals like tin and lithium carbonate. Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for industrial commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. On the equity side, the stock index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings have set the tone and is relatively defensive [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Stock index futures**: CSI 300 futures are at 4499.4 with a daily increase of 1.02%, a weekly decrease of 0.14%, a monthly decrease of 2.57%, a quarterly increase of 14.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.75%. Other stock index futures also show different price changes and trends [2]. - **Treasury bond futures**: 2 - year treasury bond futures are at 102.43 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.04%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, a quarterly increase of 0.14%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.53%. Different - term treasury bond futures have different performance [2]. - **Foreign exchange**: The US dollar index is at 98.28 with a daily increase of 0.10%, a weekly increase of 0.226%, a monthly increase of 3%, a quarterly increase of 0.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.40%. Exchange rates between different currencies also show various changes [2]. - **Interest rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is at 1.48 with a daily change of 0 bp, a weekly increase of 2 bp, a monthly decrease of 2 bp, a quarterly increase of 3 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 27 bp. Other interest rates also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Hot industries**: Industries such as comprehensive finance, commerce and trade retail, and consumer services show different price movements and gains or losses in different time periods. For example, the comprehensive finance index is at 880 with a daily increase of 1.139%, a weekly increase of 1.13%, a monthly decrease of 1.78%, a quarterly decrease of 6.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.08% [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 56.68 with a daily decrease of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 51.48%, a monthly decrease of 3.08%, a quarterly increase of 20.225%, and a year - to - date decrease of 21.2%. Different overseas commodities have different price trends [2]. 3.2 Viewpoints on Different Sectors | Sector | Variety | Recent Market Logic | Attention Points | Short - term Judgment | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial | Stock index futures | Technology events catalyze the activity of the growth style | Crowded funds in small - cap stocks | Oscillatory rise | | | Stock index options | The overall market turnover has slightly declined | Insufficient liquidity in the options market | Oscillation | | | Treasury bond futures | The bond market remains weak | Policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises | Oscillation | | Precious metals | Gold/Silver | Geopolitical and trade relations have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals | US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends | Oscillation | | Shipping | Container shipping to Europe | The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and loading pressure lacks upward driving force | The rate of freight decline in September | Oscillation | | Black building materials | Steel, iron ore | The market is still weak, and attention is paid to cost support and demand changes | Special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics | Oscillation | | | Coke | Cost support is strong, and the market oscillates | Steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Coking coal | Supply is difficult to improve, and spot prices continue to rise | Steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Ferrosilicon | Cost support exists, but upward driving force is insufficient | Raw material costs and steel procurement | Oscillation | | | Manganese silicon | Supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the market is under pressure | Cost prices and overseas quotes | Oscillation | | | Glass | Supply cuts have been implemented, and spot prices have risen | Spot sales | Oscillation | | | Soda ash | Downstream replenishment at low prices, and spot prices have slightly increased | Soda ash inventory | Oscillation | | Non - ferrous metals | Copper | Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term | Supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession | Oscillation | | | Aluminum oxide | The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure | Insufficient ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends | Oscillation | | | Aluminum | Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are rising oscillatingly | Macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand | Oscillatory rise | | | Zinc | Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly | Macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply | Oscillation | | Energy and chemical | Crude oil | Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist | OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations | Oscillation | | | LPG | Supply is still in surplus, and attention is paid to cost developments | Cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane | Oscillation | | | Asphalt | Asphalt futures prices may test the 3200 resistance level again | Sanctions and supply disruptions | Oscillatory decline | | | High - sulfur fuel oil | The fuel oil market oscillates weakly | Geopolitics and crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Low - sulfur fuel oil | Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates weakly | Crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Methanol | There is some support at the 2100 level, and methanol oscillates | Macro - energy and overseas dynamics | Oscillation | | | Urea | High inventory suppresses while cost supports, and it oscillates narrowly | Coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference | Oscillation | | | Ethylene glycol | The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimism is hard to reverse | Fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions | Oscillatory decline | | | PX | The market lacks clear guidance, and cost and sentiment compete to maintain oscillation | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | PTA | Xin Fengming starts new and stops old, and short - term new supply is limited | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | Short - fiber | Downstream factories are digesting previous inventories, and processing fees are expected to be compressed | Downstream yarn mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand | Oscillation | | | Bottle - grade polyester chips | Cost is stalemate, and supply - demand driving force is limited | Implementation of bottle - grade polyester chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning | Oscillation | | | Propylene | Downstream transactions have limited improvement, and the market oscillates | Oil prices and domestic macro - situation | Oscillation | | | PP | Fundamental support is limited, and PP weakens | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Plastic | Maintenance has decreased in the short term, and the plastic market is in a weak pattern | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Styrene | There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene oscillates weakly | Oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics | Oscillatory decline | | | PVC | Market sentiment has cooled, and PVC oscillates weakly | Expectations, costs, and supply | Oscillation | | | Caustic soda | Low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates | Market sentiment, production start - up, and demand | Oscillation | | Agriculture | Oils and fats | Market sentiment has improved, waiting for positive factors to ferment | US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data | Oscillation | | | Protein meal | Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong | Weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars | Oscillatory rise | | | Corn/starch | Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates | Demand, macro - situation, and weather | Oscillation | | | Live pigs | Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices oscillate | Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies | Oscillatory decline | | | Natural rubber | The market oscillates and adjusts, and the bearish sentiment remains | Producing area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes | Oscillatory decline | | | Synthetic rubber | It has rebounded from the bottom, and attention is paid to changes in trading sentiment | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil | Oscillatory decline | | | Cotton | The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space | Demand and inventory | Oscillation | | | Sugar | The idea of shorting at high prices is maintained | Imports and Brazilian production | Oscillatory decline | | | Pulp | The market volume has increased, and the enthusiasm for spot - futures arbitrage has risen | Macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes | Oscillation | | | Offset printing paper | Offset printing paper follows the pulp market and strengthens | Production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production start - up dynamics | Oscillation | | | Logs | Logs oscillate at the bottom | Special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume | Oscillation | [6][8]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the polyester industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the polyester industry chain was affected by factors such as macro - sentiment fluctuations, tariff conflicts, cost oscillations, device changes, and weak demand, leading to intensified price fluctuations and a further downward shift in the price center, hitting a historical low since 2007 [2][21]. - In 2026, the cost is expected to maintain relatively weak wide - range fluctuations. The oversupply of crude oil will put further downward pressure on oil prices, with Brent crude oil mainly fluctuating in the range of $50 - 75 per barrel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - The price of the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly in 2025, showing different trends in each quarter due to various factors such as cost, tariffs, and device maintenance. For example, in the first quarter, it showed a trend of rising first and then falling; in the second quarter, it was affected by tariffs and device maintenance, showing a deep V - shaped trend [21][22][23]. 3.2 Crude Oil: Supply Surplus and Price Pressure - In 2025, crude oil prices continued to decline under the pressure of continuous production increase, but were also affected by US tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, resulting in sharp price fluctuations. Brent crude oil fell below $59 per barrel, and WTI crude oil fell below $56 per barrel, both hitting new lows since February 2021 [29]. - In 2026, crude oil demand is expected to grow slowly, and supply growth will slow down, but there will still be an oversupply situation, and oil prices will continue to be under pressure. It is expected that Brent crude oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of $50 - 75 per barrel [34]. 3.3 PX: Capacity Increase and Supply - Demand Expected to Be Tight First and Then Loose - **Market Review**: In 2025, PX prices were affected by multiple factors and fluctuated widely, with the price center shifting downwards. In the first half of the year, prices declined, and in the second half, they showed a relatively strong performance, and the PX - Nap spread strengthened [45]. - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of PX is expected to be relatively weak. Naphtha supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose, and the cracking spread is expected to decline to the range of $50 - 100 per ton. The supply - demand of MX is also expected to be loose, and the PX - MX spread will remain at a relatively strong level above $80 per ton [58][66]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PX capacity expansion is coming to an end. In 2026, the supply - demand structure is expected to be tight first and then loose. The supply - demand will be relatively tight in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter during the maintenance season, and the PX - Nap spread is expected to widen [79][114]. - **Price Forecast and Operation Suggestions**: PX prices are expected to be relatively strong, especially in the second quarter, but the absolute price will still be restricted by cost. The main price fluctuation range is 5400 - 7700 yuan per ton. It is recommended to buy on dips and seize short - selling opportunities. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the basis, with a target of 300 - 600 yuan per ton, and go long on the PX05 - 09 spread, with a target of 100 - 200 yuan per ton [116]. 3.4 PTA: Stable Supply and Increasing Demand, Supply - Demand Structure to Improve - **Market Review**: In 2025, PTA prices fluctuated widely, with the price center shifting downwards. The market was affected by factors such as trade conflicts, cost fluctuations, and anti - involution [127]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In 2026, there is no new PTA capacity plan, but downstream polyester capacity will continue to expand, which will improve the PTA supply - demand structure. The processing fee is expected to rise to the range of 300 - 500 yuan per ton, and the operating rate is expected to increase to the range of 80% - 90% [137][144]. - **Price Forecast and Operation Suggestions**: PTA prices will still follow cost fluctuations. The main price fluctuation range is 3800 - 5600 yuan per ton. It is recommended to buy high and sell low according to cost trends and seasonal laws. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the basis and seize opportunities to go long on the PTA05 - 09 spread [186]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol: Capacity Continues to Increase, Price Still Under Pressure - **Market Review**: In 2025, ethylene glycol prices continued to decline, hitting a new low in nearly five years. In the first half of the year, it showed a good supply - demand structure, but in the second half, the price was under pressure due to factors such as increased supply and weak cost [195]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2026, ethylene glycol supply and demand will both increase, but the supply will be relatively loose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 4500 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short on rallies and seize short - term long - buying opportunities [256]. - **Arbitrage Suggestions**: It is recommended to short the basis on rallies and seize opportunities to go long on the ethylene glycol 05 - 09 spread [248]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber: Capacity Expansion, Supply - Demand Weakening - **Market Review**: In 2025, polyester staple fiber prices were affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and cost decline, with the absolute price declining, but the processing fee remained stable around the break - even point [266]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In 2026, the supply and demand of polyester staple fiber will both increase, but the supply increase will be greater than the demand increase, which will put pressure on the processing fee. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 5800 - 6800 yuan per ton [331]. - **Operation and Arbitrage Suggestions**: It is recommended to mainly short according to the cost, and try to go long from August to September according to the seasonal law. For arbitrage, pay attention to fundamental changes and seize opportunities to go long on the basis and the PF05 - 09 spread [331]. 3.7 Polyester Bottle Chips: Continued Capacity Expansion, Profit Still Under Pressure - **Market Review**: In 2025, polyester bottle chip prices were affected by factors such as capacity expansion and cost fluctuations, with the price center shifting downwards, and the processing fee was at a low level [338]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2026, the supply of polyester bottle chips is expected to increase, and the demand will increase steadily. The supply - demand will maintain a dynamic wide - balance, which will still strongly suppress the processing fee. The price is expected to be strong first and then weak, with the main fluctuation range of 5200 - 6400 yuan per ton [382]. - **Operation and Arbitrage Suggestions**: It is recommended to short on rallies and seize short - term long - buying opportunities according to seasonal laws, cost trends, and device maintenance dynamics. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the basis on rallies and pay attention to opportunities to short the PR03/05 spread [382]. 3.8 Polyester Industry Chain - Related Stocks As of December 12, different stocks in the polyester industry chain showed different trends. For example, the stock price of PetroChina increased by 8.67%, while the stock price of Sinopec decreased by 11.89% [383].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Policy boots have landed, risk appetite has recovered, and the idea of balanced allocation is maintained. With the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the end of balance - sheet reduction, the achievement of phased economic and trade results in the China - US summit, and the release of specific contents of the Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal", market sentiment has improved. The marginal improvement in liquidity and the easing of China - US economic and trade relations will benefit domestic and overseas equity assets again, especially in the directions of technology, independent manufacturing, and innovation. However, the short - term policy benefits have been fully priced in, and valuation pressure and capital congestion may cause the stock index to fluctuate and consolidate. In the medium term, as the "15th Five - Year Plan" is implemented and the policies of the Two Sessions next year are put into effect, the upward momentum of the equity market still exists. At present, it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation idea. Non - ferrous metals perform relatively well supported by the technology cycle and trade recovery. Black commodities have phased rebound opportunities due to policy expectations and valuation repair. Bonds maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Precious metals are sorted out in the short term but the medium - and long - term allocation value remains unchanged. The overall strategy framework of "balanced allocation, structural attack" is continued [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% in the October meeting and announced to end balance - sheet reduction and fully renew Treasury bonds and agency MBS from December to cope with the rising reserve demand and short - term interest rate fluctuations. This operation reflects the risk management idea in the economic data vacuum period, taking into account both stable growth and liquidity stability [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" set the tone of "technological self - reliance, anti - involution, and expanding domestic demand" and strengthen the "focus on economic construction". The PMI in October dropped to 49.0%. The manufacturing industry slowed down in the short term, but the construction and service industries remained expanding. Policy - based financial instruments and special bonds were accelerated to be implemented, investment repair accelerated, and the economy continued to stabilize [6]. - **Asset View**: With the implementation of policies, risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation. The improvement of liquidity and the easing of China - US economic and trade relations will benefit equity assets at home and abroad, especially in the technology, independent manufacturing, and innovation directions. In the short term, the stock index may fluctuate due to valuation pressure and capital congestion. In the medium term, the equity market still has upward momentum. Non - ferrous metals perform well, black commodities have rebound opportunities, bonds are volatile and slightly stronger, and precious metals have medium - and long - term allocation value [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. Concerns include the congestion of small - and micro - cap funds. Short - term judgment is volatile upward [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market turnover has slightly declined. Concerns include the liquidity of the options market falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Concerns include the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. Concerns include the rate of freight rate decline in September. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The macro - sentiment is volatile, and the market first rises and then falls. The supply - demand relationship weakens marginally, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is proposed. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is difficult to improve, and upstream inventory is continuously reduced. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost support still exists, but loose supply - demand suppresses prices. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand driving force is insufficient, and the price first rises and then falls. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Glass**: The meeting expectations have been realized, and downstream demand remains weak. Concerns include spot sales. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support is strengthened, but there is a lack of upward driving force. Concerns include soda ash inventory. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term. Concerns include supply disruptions, domestic policy exceeding expectations, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and domestic demand recovery falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure. Concerns include ore复产 falling short of expectations, electrolytic aluminum复产 exceeding expectations, and extreme sector trends. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices have risen in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile upward [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Lead**: The resumption of production of secondary lead smelters is imminent, and lead prices are volatile. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons, and nickel prices are weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro and geopolitical changes exceeding expectations, Indonesian policy risks, and supply release falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the stainless - steel market has rebounded slightly. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and demand growth exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are volatile. Concerns include the resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment is volatile, but supply is abundant, and silicon prices are volatile in the short term. Concerns include supply - side production cuts exceeding expectations and photovoltaic installation exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and lithium prices are slightly stronger. Concerns include demand falling short of expectations, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus, and attention should be paid to the cost side. Concerns include the cost of crude oil and overseas propane. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Asphalt**: Entering the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and asphalt futures prices are weak. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is an expected decline in Asia - Pacific fuel oil supply in November. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Methanol**: There is still port inventory pressure, and olefins have declined. Methanol fluctuates downward. Concerns include macro - energy and overseas dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Urea**: Market sentiment has cooled down. Urea may fluctuate and consolidate at the cost - support level after the decline. Concerns include coal prices. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The macro - environment lacks support, and the fundamentals are under pressure in the medium term. The price elasticity is average. Concerns include coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and China - US trade frictions. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **PX**: The "anti - involution" meeting has no conclusion but boosts the market. The downstream demand improvement still drives the upstream. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **PTA**: Macro - sentiment boosts the market, and downstream demand improvement supports the lower valuation. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The "anti - involution" disturbance of polyester raw materials has increased the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the market returns to fundamentals. Concerns include the downstream yarn factory's purchasing rhythm and the quality of peak - season demand. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee is under great pressure. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants. Concerns include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction targets. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Propylene**: The propane CP price has been lowered again. PL is weaker than PP in the short term. Concerns include oil prices and domestic macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **PP**: Maintenance is stable, and the propane CP price is lowered. PP is in a range. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance has increased slightly. Plastic is in a range. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Styrene**: Disturbed by macro - events, styrene fluctuates. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and plant dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and PVC is weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Demand support is limited, and caustic soda fluctuates downward. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The trends are differentiated, and palm oil sentiment is weak. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Disturbed by China - Canada relations, rapeseed meal has risen sharply. Concerns include weather, domestic demand, macro - environment, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market has declined again. It is recommended to hold short positions and observe. Concerns include demand, macro - environment, and weather. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is abundant, and prices are weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The willingness to sell has increased, and rubber prices have fallen from high levels. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw materials have continued to weaken, and the market has temporarily stabilized at a low level. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Cotton**: The expected benefits have been mostly digested, and the upward momentum of cotton prices has weakened in the short term. Concerns include demand and inventory. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have rebounded, but the upward space is limited. Concerns include imports and Brazilian production. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Pulp**: The spot market is generally weak, and futures are difficult to rise significantly. Concerns include macro - economic changes and US dollar - priced quotes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Offset Paper**: Offset paper follows pulp to strengthen. Concerns include production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Logs**: It is difficult to rise or fall, and the market is bottom - fluctuating. Concerns include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume. Short - term judgment is volatile [9].

Gold Market - The gold market shows signs of a potential short-term rebound after a brief decline, with the overall upward trend remaining intact despite short-term disruptions from Fed Chair Powell's speech [1] - The resolution of the tariff conflict between the US and China, following a meeting between their leaders, suggests that tariff impacts on the market are no longer a concern [1] - Increased global security risks are anticipated due to Trump's announcement to resume nuclear tests, which may lead to a new arms race, thus elevating market risk aversion and driving funds into gold [1] - Technically, gold has formed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, indicating a potential stop to the decline, with support at $3951 and resistance at $4015 [1] Oil Market - The oil market remains weak, with a decline in US crude oil inventories failing to reverse the downward trend in oil prices, reflecting low market confidence [2] - For the week ending October 24, API crude oil inventories fell by 4.02 million barrels, and EIA inventories dropped by 6.858 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations [2] - Despite a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China alleviating concerns over demand shrinkage, oil prices did not respond positively, indicating a focus on actual market reactions [2] - Technically, oil prices are under pressure, with resistance at $60.50 despite a small daily gain [2] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index experienced a short-term spike due to hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell but subsequently retreated, maintaining a bearish technical outlook [3] - The Fed's recent rate cut of 25 basis points was accompanied by Powell's hawkish stance, creating uncertainty about future monetary policy direction [3] - The dollar index is facing significant resistance from long-term moving averages, with a potential short-term rebound focus [4] Japanese Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a steady upward trend, supported by moving averages, although caution is advised regarding potential market peaks [5] - Short-term corrections are likely, with support at 51150 [5] Copper Market - The copper market has seen a slight daily gain, but prices are approaching previous highs, indicating potential resistance [6] - A short-term adjustment is expected, with support at $5.10 [6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, although Powell downplayed the likelihood of further cuts in December [7] - The Fed announced the end of its balance sheet reduction program effective December 1, which may lead to increased liquidity in the banking system [8] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting [8]

Group 1 - The article highlights that market sentiment has declined due to the ongoing tariff conflicts and the impending approval of the 14th Five-Year Plan, leading to increased uncertainty [1] - There is a notable sector rotation with coal and banking industries leading the gains, while dividend stocks continue to show relative strength [1] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the Cash Flow ETF (159399), which has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] Group 2 - The Cash Flow ETF (159399) focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices [1] - The ETF has consistently distributed dividends for eight consecutive months since its listing, making it an attractive option for interested investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is gaining attention due to its high dividend value amidst increasing macroeconomic uncertainties and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" approval, presenting potential investment opportunities in the fourth quarter [1][3]. Group 1: Market Environment - The macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly uncertain, leading to cautious investor behavior and a rotation in market sectors, with coal and banking industries showing strong performance [3]. - The new U.S. tariff policies are impacting market sentiment, prompting investors to seek stable assets, highlighting the investment value of coal as a high-dividend cash cow [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coal supply-demand landscape is improving, with domestic supply constraints and seasonal demand increases expected to support price rebounds for both thermal and coking coal [4]. - Policies aimed at reducing overproduction are leading to a contraction in domestic coal supply, while the demand for imported coal is rising due to price increases [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The only coal ETF in the market (515220) has surpassed 13.5 billion yuan in scale, with a dividend yield exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months, making it an attractive investment option in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [6]. - The coal sector is characterized by high profitability, strong cash flow, and significant dividend yields, making it a compelling investment choice as the fundamentals reach a turning point [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, maintain a callback buying strategy considering the continuous tightness of the mine end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is recommended to hold at low prices in the long term while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but the potential opening of the export window, it is advisable to wait and see or focus on short - selling opportunities for LME zinc. Consider gradually taking profits on long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets and focus on reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, with weak short - term fundamentals and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with short - term macro uncertainties and potential price - supporting motives from Indonesian policies [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systematic risk in the macro, the tin price has a large downside space. In the medium - to - long term, hold at low prices close to the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong with a de - stocking trend. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market conditions are dominated by tariff negotiation progress. The impact of this round of tariffs is not higher than that of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival perturbation when LME copper dropped 12% and gold rose 2.6%. There is still room for negotiations, and the progress of the South Korean negotiation should be monitored [1]. - Fundamentally, the smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream price - fixing quantity and receiving sentiment are acceptable, and the downstream price - fixing psychological price has significantly increased. The copper cable and aluminum cable starts have a significant divergence, and attention should be paid to whether the start stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules on the demand side has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September has significantly rebounded. There is seasonal inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots and bars due to the festival effect, and the de - stocking amplitude after the festival is considerable, with the apparent demand rising [1]. - The global economic recovery signs are emerging, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened, but the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has deepened, resulting in a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and foreign markets [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillates this week. On the supply side, domestic TC further decreases, and imported TC further increases. The domestic zinc ore will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas ore increment in the second quarter has exceeded expectations. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43%. In October, the smelting side has a slight month - on - month recovery [2]. - On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak and may continue to oscillate weakly after the September peak season. Overseas, the European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestically, the social inventory oscillates, and the overseas LME inventory is decreasing, with the visible inventory approaching the lowest level in the past two years [2]. Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. In terms of inventory, both domestic and overseas inventories are continuously increasing [5]. - There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. The short - term macro uncertainty has increased [5]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the steel mill's production schedule in October has a slight month - on - month increase. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. In terms of inventory, the inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are stable [9]. Lead - This week, the lead price oscillates slightly at a high level. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits is expected to lead to an incremental production of 20,000 - 50,000 tons in October. The macro sentiment combined with the tight supply of waste batteries may drive recyclers to support prices. The concentrate production has increased, and the high smelting profit of primary lead has led to a shortage of concentrates, with the TC quotation declining in a chaotic manner [11]. - On the demand side, the battery start - up rate has increased this week, but the battery finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day stocking, the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50, and the recycled lead production has gradually started discharging materials [11]. Tin - This week, the tin price oscillates. On the supply side, the ore processing fee is at a low level. Although some scattered orders have tried to raise the quotation, large - scale transactions have not occurred. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August was still low, but the recovery in October is highly expected, with an expected maintenance of over 600 metal tons. The export of Indonesia's PT Timah has resumed in mid - to - late September, and the Indonesian president announced that the tin ingot export will return to normal in 2026 [13]. - On the demand side, there is a slight recovery during the solder peak season, mainly supported by rigid demand at high prices. After the festival, the arrival of goods is slow, and the domestic inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas LME inventory oscillates at a low level [13]. Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continue to resume production, with 35 furnaces in the west and 55 furnaces in the east. Subsequently, the number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will significantly decrease. In the dry season, the overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month. Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 will be in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, the lithium carbonate price oscillates strongly. On the raw material side, the ore end continues to support prices, and holders are reluctant to sell due to the significant reduction of previous inventories, resulting in a tight spot market [15]. - On the lithium salt side, the consumption trend and de - stocking level continue to exceed expectations. With the acceleration of warehouse receipt cancellation this week, the basis of first - tier brands also runs strongly. In the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and there is a de - stocking trend. In October, the de - stocking level is expected to be 8,000 - 10,000 tons. At the end of the year, there are multiple expected games such as the weakening of power demand in the off - season, the sustainability of energy - storage demand, and supply disturbances in Jiangxi [15].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the expected increase in domestic demand driven by the 14th Five-Year Plan and renewed tariff conflicts, suggesting a focus on sectors with strong price-driving capabilities and industry self-discipline [6] - Cement prices have shown a slight decline, while float glass prices continue to rise, indicating mixed market conditions [2] - The report highlights the resilience of companies like Sanke Tree and the potential for growth in new business areas such as fire safety technology and specialty electronic fabrics [6][7] Summary by Sections Cement Market - The national average cement price is 347 RMB/ton, down 0.7% from the previous week, with price increases observed in Hunan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi [2][24] - The report notes that the average shipment rate for key cement enterprises is 45.2%, indicating a slight increase [24] Float Glass and Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of float glass is 1300.97 RMB/ton, up 0.87% from the previous week, while photovoltaic glass prices remain stable [2] - The report mentions that the price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is around 13 RMB/sqm, unchanged from the previous week [2] Real Estate Transactions - In the 42nd week, new home transaction area in 30 major cities was 211.75 million sqm, down 20% year-on-year but up 107.52% month-on-month [3][19] - The report indicates that second-hand home transactions in 15 monitored cities also improved month-on-month, with a 14% year-on-year increase in cumulative transaction area [3][19] Recommended Companies - Companies recommended include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, benefiting from cost and scale advantages [6] - The report also highlights the strong performance of Sanke Tree, which achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion RMB, up 2.7% year-on-year, and a net profit increase of 81.2% [6][7] - Fire safety leader Qingniao Fire is recommended due to its upcoming commercialization of fire robots and compliance with new national standards [6][7] - The report suggests investment in China Jushi and China National Materials Technology, which are expected to benefit from high demand for specialty electronic fabrics [6][7]