Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Aluminum, Alumina, Stainless Steel, Nickel, Copper, Zinc [1] - **Bearish**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Shandong Gasoline, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, PVC, LPG [1] - **Neutral or Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Benzene, Styrene, Chlor - Alkali, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the stock index is likely to fluctuate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - The market uncertainty has resurfaced, and the gold price has stabilized and rebounded. The macro and commodity attributes may still support the silver price, but the fundamentals may limit its upside [1] - The recent improvement in market sentiment and the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventory have led to a strong aluminum price. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has boosted market risk appetite and commodity prices [1] - The supply - side impact of some metal - related events is limited, and metal prices are affected by macro - sentiment and related metal price movements [1] - For agricultural products, factors such as production forecasts, policy changes, and price differentials affect market trends. For example, Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and domestic corn and soybean meal have different outlooks [1] - In the energy and chemical sectors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors influence prices. For instance, the cooling of the Middle East situation and OPEC+ actions affect oil prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is likely to fluctuate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Currently in a period of asset - liability and weak economy, but the central bank's recent interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside [1] - **Gold**: The market uncertainty has resurfaced, and the price has stabilized and rebounded [1] - **Silver**: The macro and commodity attributes may still support the price, but the fundamentals may limit its upside [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Recently, the market risk appetite has recovered, and the short - term price is strong due to the squeeze - out situation of US copper and LME copper [1] - **Aluminum**: The recent improvement in market sentiment and the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventory have led to a strong price [1] - **Alumina**: The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has boosted market risk appetite and commodity prices, and it is short - term strong [1] - **Zinc**: Affected by news, it fell in the short term, but rebounded with the sharp rise in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment [1] - **Nickel**: After the improvement in commodity sentiment, the price rebounded from the short - term bottom, but the upside is limited. In the long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot trading has improved periodically, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Short - term operation is recommended [1] - **Tin**: The supply of mines is difficult to recover in the short term, and the price rebounded with the improvement of macro - sentiment [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: There are short - term factory production restrictions. Temporarily wait and see [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term production has increased slightly, demand is weakening, supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Focus on selling hedging opportunities when the futures are at a premium [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: According to Malay high - frequency data, it is likely to accumulate inventory in June, which is bearish [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Before the anti - dumping investigation result of Canadian rapeseed is announced, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums; in the long term, macro - uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the long - term production may be affected by the crude oil price [1] - **Corn**: The short - term is affected by import and auction news, and the C09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly later [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to be tight, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: The Middle East situation has cooled, OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose [1] - **Shandong Gasoline**: Affected by cost and demand factors, it is bearish [1] - **Natural Rubber and BR Rubber**: The downstream demand is weakening, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is bearish [1] - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol**: The market is affected by factors such as device maintenance, supply - demand, and cost [1] - **PVC and Chlor - Alkali**: After the end of maintenance, new devices are put into production, and the supply pressure increases, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **LPG**: The 7 - month CP price has been lowered, and the short - term price has a downward space [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: The freight rate is expected to peak in mid - July, and the subsequent capacity deployment is sufficient [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].