Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a recent phone call initiated by U.S. President Trump with Japanese Prime Minister Kishi, focusing on the Taiwan sovereignty issue and the strengthening of U.S.-Japan relations amidst rising tensions in the region [3][5]. Group 1: Phone Call Details - The phone call lasted approximately 25 minutes, during which Trump provided insights about the recent U.S.-China leaders' conversation on November 24 [3][4]. - Kishi emphasized the confirmation of the close cooperation between the U.S. and Japan, discussing various topics including the situation in the Indo-Pacific region [3][5]. Group 2: Implications of the Call - The call is seen as significant due to the rarity of U.S.-China leader communications occurring within a month of each other, indicating heightened awareness of current tensions and the need for dialogue [5]. - Trump's proactive approach in reaching out to Kishi signals a clear message regarding the importance of U.S.-Japan relations and the ongoing geopolitical dynamics [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The construction industry is in the off - season, with limited bright spots in the fundamentals of the black building materials sector, and prices are under pressure. However, with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, there may be positive macro and policy news, and attention should be paid to potential phased upward opportunities driven by improved macro sentiment [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, with reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil and increased shipments from non - mainstream regions. Port inventories decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis. Iron water is expected to continue a slight downward trend, but there is still an expectation for iron ore restocking demand, and iron ore prices are firm. Scrap steel supply increases while demand remains stable, with limited price decline space, and prices are expected to oscillate [4] Carbon Element - After profit restoration and environmental protection relaxation, coke supply has stabilized. In the short term, steel mills' rigid demand support remains, but the cost support for spot goods continues to weaken, and the expectation of price cuts in the market is rising. Coke futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal. Domestic coking coal supply remains low, with no obvious weakening in fundamentals. After the spot price correction, there is still an expectation for downstream winter restocking. The near - term contracts of coking coal futures are suppressed by delivery, while the far - term contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [4] Alloys - Manganese silicon has cost support, but the market supply - demand is loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level around the cost. Silicon iron also has cost support, but supply - demand is also loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level around the cost [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass supply has potential disruptions, but high inventory restricts price increases. If there is no further cold - repair by the end of the year, prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are near the cost, with obvious bottom support, but the oversupply situation restricts price increases. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [7] Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: In the off - season, fundamentals are lackluster, and the futures market is under pressure. Spot market trading is weak. Steel mills' profit margins continue to decline, and production is expected to decrease. Construction site funds are in short supply, and demand is weakening. Although inventory is decreasing, it is still higher than the same period last year. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [9] - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production is decreasing, but ore prices are still resilient. Overseas mine shipments have decreased, and port arrivals have increased. Iron water is expected to continue a slight downward trend, but there is an expectation for restocking demand. Ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [9] - **Scrap Steel**: The profit of electric furnaces has improved, and daily consumption has slightly increased. Supply has increased slightly, demand is stable, and prices are expected to oscillate [11] - **Coke**: Costs are continuously decreasing, and the expectation of price cuts is strong. Supply has stabilized after profit restoration and environmental protection relaxation, and inventory is decreasing. However, the cost support for spot goods is weakening, and the market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12] - **Coking Coal**: Coal mines continue to accumulate inventory, and pressure on the futures market remains. Domestic supply remains low, and there is an expectation for downstream restocking after the price correction. The near - term contracts are expected to oscillate, and the far - term contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13] - **Glass**: The uncertainty of cold - repair remains, and the improvement of actual supply - demand is limited. Supply is expected to decrease, but high inventory restricts price increases. If there is no further cold - repair by the end of the year, prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices may rise [14] - **Soda Ash**: Production remains flat on a month - on - month basis, and spot trading is weak. Prices are near the cost, with obvious bottom support, but the oversupply situation restricts price increases. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [14] - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and the futures market oscillates at a low level. Cost support remains, but the market supply - demand is loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [16] - **Silicon Iron**: Market confidence is insufficient, and futures prices are running weakly. Cost support is strong, but supply - demand is loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullish and buying on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to stay on the sidelines [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is recommended for buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for sidelines or buying on dips with short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended for buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel is recommended for sidelines or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][11][15][16][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; Soda ash is recommended for shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][19][21][23][25][26][28][29][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is expected to oscillate within the range of 4600 - 4950; Apples are expected to oscillate strongly; Jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][34][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for shorting on rallies; Corn is expected to oscillate widely; Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly; Oils are expected to oscillate strongly after a high - level correction [1][38][40][41][42][43] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading strategies for various futures products based on their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It believes that the macro - financial market has long - term potential, while different sectors in the commodity market have different trends. For example, some products are in a range - bound state, some are affected by seasonal factors, and some are influenced by policy and international trade factors [1][5][7][11][34][38] Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: The market is in a short - term shock, but in the medium - term, it is expected to benefit from the loose US dollar liquidity environment. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market adjusted on Friday, and the technical repair may be over. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and focus on the results of the China - US presidential call [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, with coal prices rising across the board [7] - **Rebar**: The short - term pattern of weak industry and strong macro remains. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The fundamentals are stable, and it is affected by coal news. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 1130 - 1160 support [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to remain in high - level shock before the holiday, and it is recommended to trade cautiously on the long side [11] - **Aluminum**: The price is under pressure from alumina, but the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the long AD short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply - demand side changes little, and it is recommended to short moderately on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading, with reference ranges of 9800 - 10500 for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and 820 - 855 for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [16][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: Considering pre - holiday restocking and alumina production expectations, it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2550 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate, focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [25] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range arrangement, focusing on the 15600 support [25] - **Urea**: The supply is slightly lower than last year, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the 1630 - 1650 support for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The downstream demand is improving, and the supply pressure is relieved. It is expected to oscillate, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [30] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and go long on the 05 contract due to the expected supply surplus [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply - demand situation is improving, but the new cotton production may increase. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: The cost and supply - demand are in a tug - of - war. It is expected to oscillate within the 4600 - 4950 range [34] - **Apples**: Affected by weather and market conditions, the price is expected to be strong [35] - **Jujubes**: The consumption is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies and focus on the long 05, 07 short 03 arbitrage [38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the long - term growth rate may slow down. It is recommended to short lightly on rallies for the near - term contracts and be cautious about shorting for the 12 and 01 contracts [40] - **Corn**: It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is under seasonal pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and focus on the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient in September - October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by cost. It is recommended to focus on the 2980 support for the M2601 contract [42] - **Oils**: The domestic oils have a high - level correction, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on some arbitrage opportunities [43]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Steel: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have a short - term rebound [3][4][5]. - Iron ore: Due to macro - level benefits, the short - term market is expected to be strong, and short - selling positions should be reduced [7][8][9]. - Coke: The market sentiment has improved, and there may be a short - term rebound [10][12][13]. - Coking coal: Market sentiment improvement may lead to a short - term rebound [14][16][17]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term prices are under pressure [18][19][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Variety Views - Rebar: In a state of weak supply and demand, strong exports relieve supply pressure, while the raw material end has shipment pressure. The real - world fundamentals have not improved significantly, but may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - atmosphere [1][4]. - Hot - rolled coil: Output has increased, apparent demand has declined, and inventory has started to increase. Exports may decline later, and the overall surplus in the black chain suppresses the market. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - atmosphere [1]. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices: Rebar 01 is 2951 with a decline of 19; Rebar 05 is 2952 with a decline of 14; Rebar 10 is 2959 with a decline of 15. Hot - rolled coil 01 is 3075 with a decline of 15; Hot - rolled coil 05 is 3072 with a decline of 16; Hot - rolled coil 10 is 3077 with a decline of 20 [2]. - Spot prices: Tangshan billet is 2880 with a decline of 20. Rebar prices in different regions range from 3100 - 3220, and hot - rolled coil prices range from 3120 - 3400 [2]. - Basis and spreads: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spots have different changes [2]. Iron Ore Variety Views - Fundamentally, iron ore demand is supported by steel enterprise profits, but the short - term supply - demand structure is neutral to weak. Due to positive news from Sino - US talks, the short - term market is strong [1][8]. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices: Iron ore 01 is 665 with a decline of 1; Iron ore 05 is 647 with a decline of 2; Iron ore 09 is 701 with a decline of 4 [6]. - Spot prices: PB powder is 728 with a decline of 5; Yangdi powder is 620 with a decline of 5; BRBF powder is 749 with a decline of 5 [6]. - Spreads and basis: Different spreads and basis of iron ore futures and spots have various changes [6]. Coke Variety Views - Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts, reducing coke enterprise profits. Although there is some production reduction, overall output is still high. Demand is guaranteed to some extent, but procurement is cautious. The overall inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - sentiment [1][12]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Coke 1 - month contract is 1358.5 with a decline of 17.5; Coke 5 - month contract is 1363.0 with a decline of 19.5; Coke 9 - month contract is 1342.0 with a decline of 25.5 [11]. - Spot prices: Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1100 with no change; Rizhao Port first - grade metallurgical coke is 1340 with no change [11]. - Weekly data: Data such as capacity utilization, output, and inventory of coke have different changes [11]. Coking Coal Variety Views - Domestic coking coal production is still at a relatively high level, and there is no large - scale production reduction. Mine inventory is rising, and the supply - demand is loose. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved market sentiment [1][16]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Coking coal 1 - month contract is 773.0 with a decline of 13.0; Coking coal 5 - month contract is 802.5 with a decline of 2.0; Coking coal 9 - month contract is 757.0 with a decline of 11.0 [15]. - Spot prices: Lvliang main coking coal is 1150 with no change; Gujiao main coking coal is 1020 with no change [15]. - Weekly data: Data such as wash - coal plant开工率, output, and inventory of coking coal have different changes [15]. Ferroalloys Variety Views - Manganese silicon: The production reduction space in the production area is limited, and some factories may resume production. The manganese ore market is weak, and some mines' far - month quotes have a slight increase. It may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term price is under pressure [1][19]. - Ferrosilicon: There is an expectation of electricity price reduction, and some enterprises have resumed production. The current supply is at a low level, and the inventory is being reduced. It may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term price is under pressure [1][19]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Manganese silicon 01 is 5514 with a decline of 28; Manganese silicon 05 is 2238 with a decline of 38; Manganese silicon 09 is 5482 with a decline of 20. Ferrosilicon 01 is 5110 with a decline of 48; Ferrosilicon 05 is 5140 with a decline of 34; Ferrosilicon 09 is 5102 with a decline of 44 [18]. - Spot prices: Silicon - manganese 6517 in different regions is 5300 - 5450, and ferrosilicon 72 in different regions is 5230 - 5300 [18]. - Weekly data: Data such as enterprise开工率, output, and inventory of ferroalloys have different changes [18].