Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Steel: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have a short - term rebound [3][4][5]. - Iron ore: Due to macro - level benefits, the short - term market is expected to be strong, and short - selling positions should be reduced [7][8][9]. - Coke: The market sentiment has improved, and there may be a short - term rebound [10][12][13]. - Coking coal: Market sentiment improvement may lead to a short - term rebound [14][16][17]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term prices are under pressure [18][19][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Variety Views - Rebar: In a state of weak supply and demand, strong exports relieve supply pressure, while the raw material end has shipment pressure. The real - world fundamentals have not improved significantly, but may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - atmosphere [1][4]. - Hot - rolled coil: Output has increased, apparent demand has declined, and inventory has started to increase. Exports may decline later, and the overall surplus in the black chain suppresses the market. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - atmosphere [1]. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices: Rebar 01 is 2951 with a decline of 19; Rebar 05 is 2952 with a decline of 14; Rebar 10 is 2959 with a decline of 15. Hot - rolled coil 01 is 3075 with a decline of 15; Hot - rolled coil 05 is 3072 with a decline of 16; Hot - rolled coil 10 is 3077 with a decline of 20 [2]. - Spot prices: Tangshan billet is 2880 with a decline of 20. Rebar prices in different regions range from 3100 - 3220, and hot - rolled coil prices range from 3120 - 3400 [2]. - Basis and spreads: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spots have different changes [2]. Iron Ore Variety Views - Fundamentally, iron ore demand is supported by steel enterprise profits, but the short - term supply - demand structure is neutral to weak. Due to positive news from Sino - US talks, the short - term market is strong [1][8]. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices: Iron ore 01 is 665 with a decline of 1; Iron ore 05 is 647 with a decline of 2; Iron ore 09 is 701 with a decline of 4 [6]. - Spot prices: PB powder is 728 with a decline of 5; Yangdi powder is 620 with a decline of 5; BRBF powder is 749 with a decline of 5 [6]. - Spreads and basis: Different spreads and basis of iron ore futures and spots have various changes [6]. Coke Variety Views - Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts, reducing coke enterprise profits. Although there is some production reduction, overall output is still high. Demand is guaranteed to some extent, but procurement is cautious. The overall inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - sentiment [1][12]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Coke 1 - month contract is 1358.5 with a decline of 17.5; Coke 5 - month contract is 1363.0 with a decline of 19.5; Coke 9 - month contract is 1342.0 with a decline of 25.5 [11]. - Spot prices: Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1100 with no change; Rizhao Port first - grade metallurgical coke is 1340 with no change [11]. - Weekly data: Data such as capacity utilization, output, and inventory of coke have different changes [11]. Coking Coal Variety Views - Domestic coking coal production is still at a relatively high level, and there is no large - scale production reduction. Mine inventory is rising, and the supply - demand is loose. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved market sentiment [1][16]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Coking coal 1 - month contract is 773.0 with a decline of 13.0; Coking coal 5 - month contract is 802.5 with a decline of 2.0; Coking coal 9 - month contract is 757.0 with a decline of 11.0 [15]. - Spot prices: Lvliang main coking coal is 1150 with no change; Gujiao main coking coal is 1020 with no change [15]. - Weekly data: Data such as wash - coal plant开工率, output, and inventory of coking coal have different changes [15]. Ferroalloys Variety Views - Manganese silicon: The production reduction space in the production area is limited, and some factories may resume production. The manganese ore market is weak, and some mines' far - month quotes have a slight increase. It may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term price is under pressure [1][19]. - Ferrosilicon: There is an expectation of electricity price reduction, and some enterprises have resumed production. The current supply is at a low level, and the inventory is being reduced. It may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term price is under pressure [1][19]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Manganese silicon 01 is 5514 with a decline of 28; Manganese silicon 05 is 2238 with a decline of 38; Manganese silicon 09 is 5482 with a decline of 20. Ferrosilicon 01 is 5110 with a decline of 48; Ferrosilicon 05 is 5140 with a decline of 34; Ferrosilicon 09 is 5102 with a decline of 44 [18]. - Spot prices: Silicon - manganese 6517 in different regions is 5300 - 5450, and ferrosilicon 72 in different regions is 5230 - 5300 [18]. - Weekly data: Data such as enterprise开工率, output, and inventory of ferroalloys have different changes [18].