Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports and the supply - demand situation in the domestic market. In the short term, it is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern. The RM2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2580 - 2640 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal shows a volatile upward trend. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market is affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling and shows a relatively strong volatile pattern [8]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation. - China's preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain. - The global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU rapeseed production and the lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Multiple and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Likely to Fall**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the possibility of a small - probability settlement in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2650, with a basis of 60, indicating a premium over futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward. The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2580 - 2640. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 32,000 tons, up 18.52% week - on - week from 27,000 tons last week and up 14.29% year - on - year from 28,000 tons in the same period last year. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply and demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators over the years [8][23][24]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-15 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，获利盘回吐和加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕 现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面。但进口油菜籽到港量8月小幅增多但油 厂库存短期无压力，盘面短期受反倾销初步裁定影响偏强震荡。偏多 2.基差：现货2640，基差34，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存3.2万吨，上周2.7万吨，周环比增加18.52%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比增 加14.29%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力空单增加，资金流出，偏空 6.预期：菜粕短期 ...