交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-24 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2400至2460区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息面影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2540，基差93，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力空单减少，资金流 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-23 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2480至2540区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，中加贸易关系仍有变数和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加 拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位 支撑盘面，但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息面 影响维持震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2620，基差92，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2440 - 2500. It is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of tariff reduction. It has fallen after a rise and will return to a short - term shock pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal fluctuates narrowly. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and there are still variables in Sino - Canadian trade consultations, causing the market to fall due to news [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final result is still variable [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 10th to 18th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3004 - 3059 yuan, and the trading volume ranged from 4.9 - 39.05 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2560 - 2620 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.08 million tons on September 15th. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 434 - 459 yuan [13]. - From September 10th to 18th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2460 - 2567 yuan, the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2357 - 2420 yuan, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian ranged from 2540 - 2620 yuan [15]. - From September 8th to 18th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 10403 to 9504 [16]. - The price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downwards, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium increased slightly [17]. - The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated at a low level [19]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [22]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remained low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal decreased slightly [24]. - The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly [26]. - The price of aquatic fish increased slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [33]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2440 - 2500. It has returned to a volatile pattern due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada. The market is waiting for further developments [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season in the short term, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade consultations are still uncertain, causing the market to decline due to news [9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the 2440 - 2500 range. The fundamental situation is neutral, the basis is positive, inventory is positive, the disk is negative, the main position is negative, and the future is expected to be volatile [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains good expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result between China and Canada [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 8th to 16th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2580 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small [13]. - From September 9th to 17th, the price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated, and the spot price was relatively stable. The spot premium slightly expanded [15][18]. - From September 5th to 17th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts first increased and then decreased [17]. - The import volume of rapeseed in September remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed inventory remained low, rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly, and the oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly [23][25][27]. - Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - Not provided

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 近期要闻： 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2480至2540区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面， 但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受反倾销初步裁定影 响偏强震荡。偏多 2.基差：现货2580，基差59，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存2.1万吨，上周2.55万吨，周环比减少17.65%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减 少25%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports and the supply - demand situation in the domestic market. In the short term, it is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern. The RM2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2580 - 2640 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal shows a volatile upward trend. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market is affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling and shows a relatively strong volatile pattern [8]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation. - China's preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain. - The global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU rapeseed production and the lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Multiple and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Likely to Fall**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the possibility of a small - probability settlement in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2650, with a basis of 60, indicating a premium over futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward. The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2580 - 2640. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 32,000 tons, up 18.52% week - on - week from 27,000 tons last week and up 14.29% year - on - year from 28,000 tons in the same period last year. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply and demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators over the years [8][23][24]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The short - term trend of rapeseed meal is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, resulting in a short - term shock - strengthening pattern. [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell. The short - term shock - strengthening pattern is due to factors such as the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, high demand in the short - term, and low inventory. The price range for RM2601 is expected to be between 2540 and 2600. [8] 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market while maintaining good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and import deposit collection has begun. Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, and the geopolitical conflict still has the potential to rise, which supports commodity prices. [10] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, the spot is at a premium to the futures, the price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, and the oil mill's rapeseed meal inventory is not under pressure in the short term. Bearish factors: Rapeseed meal inventory has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, and the main short positions have increased with capital outflows. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is still uncertain. [8] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the supply - demand situation. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has affected the market. [10] - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 tons, a 18.52% week - on - week increase and a 14.29% year - on - year increase. [8] - **Price**: The spot price is 2640, with a basis of 34, indicating a premium to the futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. [8] 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and capital has flowed out. [8]