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阿根廷,突然最大规模救市
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-09-20 22:54
Core Insights - The Argentine central bank conducted its largest single-day dollar sale in nearly six years, amounting to $678 million, to support the peso amid political instability and increased demand for dollars from institutional investors [1] - The total dollar sales over the past three trading days reached $1.1 billion, indicating a significant intervention to manage liquidity as the peso hovers at historical lows [1] - Economic Minister Luis Caputo stated that the central bank will sell every dollar in reserves at the upper limit of the floating exchange rate [1] Group 1 - The peso fell to a historical low of 1,520 per dollar in the parallel exchange market, depreciating over 6% this week [3] - Since the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in mid-April, the central bank had not intervened in the market until now [4] - Analysts estimate that if the current pace of dollar sales continues, reserves could decrease by approximately $10 billion before the elections, which is about 70% of the funds already disbursed by the IMF [4] Group 2 - The central bank's net international reserves are reported at $39.26 billion, but usable reserves for intervention are estimated to be only around $6 billion [4] - Continuous dollar sales may accelerate the depletion of reserves, jeopardizing short-term debt repayments, and could lead to increased issuance of local currency bonds to cover funding gaps [5] - The "country risk" indicator has risen to its highest level since August 2024, hovering around 1,500 basis points, with off-market bonds averaging a decline of 1.4% this week [6] Group 3 - The stability of the Argentine peso is deemed crucial; failure to maintain it could lead to soaring prices and undermine President Milei's support for necessary reforms [8] - President Milei vowed to defend the peso at all costs, echoing statements from his chief economic advisor [8] - Analysts warn that maintaining the current exchange rate could risk returning the country to rampant inflation, which contradicts Milei's promise to end it [10]
哥伦比亚商界担忧美取消哥禁毒认证影响贸易投资
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-09-18 16:41
Core Viewpoint - Colombian business leaders express concerns over the potential economic consequences of the U.S. government's cancellation of drug certification for Colombia, emphasizing the need for immediate action to mitigate risks [1] Economic Impact - The cancellation could lead to additional aid restrictions and negatively affect multilateral banking operations, which may weaken investor confidence and put pressure on the dollar exchange rate [1] - There is a risk of threatening macroeconomic stability if timely measures are not implemented [1] Trade Relations - The move is expected to impact bilateral trade relations, reducing the willingness of U.S. companies to operate in Colombia and increasing national risk [1] - This situation may also raise credit costs, directly affecting employment, investment, and social welfare in Colombia [1] Regional Security - The current scenario could prolong regional security challenges and increase the risk of trade sanctions [1]