转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月30日电（王菁）2025年的全球债券市场，在主要央行货币政策从"协同"走向"分裂"的宏大叙事中，度过了惊心动魄的一年。 作为全球资产定价的基石，美国、德国、英国及日本国债的收益率曲线剧烈波动，不仅反映了投资者对主要经济体增长与通胀预期的博弈，更深刻揭示了市 场对财政可持续性的空前担忧。这一年，债市交易的核心逻辑，已从追逐利率下行趋势，彻底转向对"期限溢价"和"国家风险"的艰难定价。 货币政策分化：全球债市波动之源 2025年，全球主要央行的政策路径呈现出金融危机后最为明显的分化格局，这构成了债券市场波动的核心宏观背景。 美联储货币政策转向贯穿全年，成为主导美债市场情绪的"指挥棒"。年初，美债尚在交易"更高更久"的利率预期，但美国一季度通胀数据连续超预期降温， 加之就业市场显现裂痕，促使美联储于6月启动本轮周期首次降息。随后，在经济增长韧性犹存与通胀反复的拉锯中，美联储采取了"走一步看一步"的谨慎 策略，至年末累计降息75个基点。高盛首席经济学家哈祖斯（Jan Hatzius）称，"美联储的降息步伐是克制且数据依赖的，这抑制了市场对激进宽松的幻 想，使美债收益率始终保有韧性。" ...

Core Insights - The Argentine central bank conducted its largest single-day dollar sale in nearly six years, amounting to $678 million, to support the peso amid political instability and increased demand for dollars from institutional investors [1] - The total dollar sales over the past three trading days reached $1.1 billion, indicating a significant intervention to manage liquidity as the peso hovers at historical lows [1] - Economic Minister Luis Caputo stated that the central bank will sell every dollar in reserves at the upper limit of the floating exchange rate [1] Group 1 - The peso fell to a historical low of 1,520 per dollar in the parallel exchange market, depreciating over 6% this week [3] - Since the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in mid-April, the central bank had not intervened in the market until now [4] - Analysts estimate that if the current pace of dollar sales continues, reserves could decrease by approximately $10 billion before the elections, which is about 70% of the funds already disbursed by the IMF [4] Group 2 - The central bank's net international reserves are reported at $39.26 billion, but usable reserves for intervention are estimated to be only around $6 billion [4] - Continuous dollar sales may accelerate the depletion of reserves, jeopardizing short-term debt repayments, and could lead to increased issuance of local currency bonds to cover funding gaps [5] - The "country risk" indicator has risen to its highest level since August 2024, hovering around 1,500 basis points, with off-market bonds averaging a decline of 1.4% this week [6] Group 3 - The stability of the Argentine peso is deemed crucial; failure to maintain it could lead to soaring prices and undermine President Milei's support for necessary reforms [8] - President Milei vowed to defend the peso at all costs, echoing statements from his chief economic advisor [8] - Analysts warn that maintaining the current exchange rate could risk returning the country to rampant inflation, which contradicts Milei's promise to end it [10]

Core Viewpoint - Colombian business leaders express concerns over the potential economic consequences of the U.S. government's cancellation of drug certification for Colombia, emphasizing the need for immediate action to mitigate risks [1] Economic Impact - The cancellation could lead to additional aid restrictions and negatively affect multilateral banking operations, which may weaken investor confidence and put pressure on the dollar exchange rate [1] - There is a risk of threatening macroeconomic stability if timely measures are not implemented [1] Trade Relations - The move is expected to impact bilateral trade relations, reducing the willingness of U.S. companies to operate in Colombia and increasing national risk [1] - This situation may also raise credit costs, directly affecting employment, investment, and social welfare in Colombia [1] Regional Security - The current scenario could prolong regional security challenges and increase the risk of trade sanctions [1]