Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of new models in the real estate sector, empowering industry development from a long-term perspective [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The rise of "good houses" as an industry standard may further amplify product capability differences, reshaping the competitive landscape among enterprises [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The company continues to recommend "three good" real estate stocks characterized by "good credit, good cities, and good products," as well as leading property management companies with stable dividends and performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a new model in the real estate sector, empowering industry development from a long-term perspective [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The rise of "good houses" as an industry standard may further amplify product capability differences, reshaping the competitive landscape among enterprises [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The company continues to recommend "three good" real estate stocks characterized by "good credit, good cities, and good products," as well as leading property management companies with stable dividends and performance [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is experiencing pressure on sales year-on-year, with a total sales area of 45,851 million square meters in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.50% [4][8]. - In June 2025, the monthly sales area was 10,535.81 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 49.37% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.46% [4][8]. - The total sales amount for the first half of 2025 was 44,241 billion yuan, down 5.50% year-on-year, with June's sales amounting to 10,150.16 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 43.85% but a year-on-year decline of 10.79% [4][8]. - The average sales price for the first half of 2025 was 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 2.07% year-on-year [4][8]. Sales Summary - National Market: The sales area in the eastern region was 20,800 million square meters, down 5.2% year-on-year; the central region saw a decline of 1.2% with a sales area of 11,926 million square meters; the western region's sales area was 11,515 million square meters, down 2.5% [8]. - Regional Sales Amount: The eastern region's sales amount was 26,945 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year; the central region's sales amount was 7,988 billion yuan, also down 5.8%; the western region's sales amount was 8,163 billion yuan, down 4.30% [8]. Investment Summary - Investment in real estate development for the first half of 2025 totaled 46,658 billion yuan, down 11.20% year-on-year [14]. - In June 2025, the monthly development investment was 10,424 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 22.58% but a year-on-year decline of 12.90% [14]. - New construction area for the first half of 2025 was 30,364 million square meters, down 20.00% year-on-year, with June's new construction area at 7,180 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 34.27% [17]. - The completion area for the first half of 2025 was 22,567 million square meters, down 14.80% year-on-year, with June's completion area at 4,182 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 52.77% [19]. Funding Summary - Total funds available to real estate companies in the first half of 2025 were 50,202 billion yuan, down 6.20% year-on-year [23]. - Domestic loans accounted for 8,245 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.60% [23]. - Self-raised funds were 17,544 billion yuan, down 7.20%, while personal mortgage loans were 6,847 billion yuan, down 11.40% [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the real estate sector's configuration value is highlighted under supportive policies, with a focus on leading companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group [41][40]. - Recommended stocks include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others, with a focus on quality developers and property management firms [41][39].

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes a stable yet progressive economic approach, maintaining a GDP growth target of around 5% and a budget deficit target of approximately 4%, indicating a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy aimed at promoting the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy - The fiscal policy is set to be more aggressive, with a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [2]. - The monetary policy will focus on optimizing tools to support the real estate and stock markets [2]. - The budget deficit target of around 4% is a record high, with specific allocations for long-term special bonds and local special bonds being raised [2]. Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion - The primary task for 2025 is to expand domestic demand, particularly addressing the consumption shortfall [2]. - Key measures include issuing 300 billion yuan in ultra-long special bonds for "old-for-new" exchanges and promoting new types of consumption in digital, green, and intelligent sectors [2]. Group 3: Technological Development - The focus on new productive forces emphasizes the digital economy and advanced manufacturing, with new industry priorities including biomanufacturing, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G [3]. - The report highlights the importance of digital transformation and the cultivation of digital service providers [3]. Group 4: Capital Market Reform - The report outlines reforms aimed at increasing medium- and long-term capital inflows into the market, along with optimizing IPO and merger and acquisition processes [3]. Group 5: Real Estate Policy - New measures in real estate include reducing restrictive policies and granting local authorities greater autonomy in managing existing housing stock [3]. Group 6: Population and Social Policies - The report addresses community-based elderly care and mentions the introduction of childcare subsidies [4]. Group 7: State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The establishment of a strategic mission evaluation system for state-owned enterprises is highlighted [5].