2025 年 07 月 13 日 发行和净融资环比提升, 减国债利 差持续收窄 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250711 相关研究 《7 月发行或放量, 减国债利差继续 收窄——地方债周度跟踪 20250704 》 2025/07/06 《发行明显提速，但下周再度放缓— —地方债周度跟踪 20250627 》 2025/06/29 《减国债利差整体收窄，下周发行将 明显提速——地方债周度跟踪 20250620 》 2025/06/22 《发行继续降速，10Y 和 30Y 减国 债利差小幅收窄——地方债周度跟 踪 20250613 》 2025/06/15 《新增地方债发行降速，10Y 减国债 利差小幅收窄——地方债周度跟踪 20250606 》 2025/06/08 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基 ...

2025 年 06 月 22 日 减国债利差整体收窄，下周发行将 明显提速 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250620 相关研究 《发行继续降速，10Y 和 30Y 减国 债利差小幅收窄——地方债周度跟 踪 20250613 》 2025/06/15 《新增地方债发行降速，10Y 减国债 利差小幅收窄——地方债周度跟踪 20250606 》 2025/06/08 《发行与净融资环比均下降，10Y 减 国债利差大幅回升——地方债周度 跟踪 20250530 》 2025/06/02 《10Y 地方债减国债利差大幅收窄 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250523 》 2025/05/26 《发行和净融资环比上升，除 30Y 外其他期限减国债利差皆收窄—— 地方债周度跟踪 20250516 》 2025/05/18 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearch.com ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This period's local bond issuance and net financing decreased compared to the previous period, and it is expected that both the issuance and net financing of local bonds will increase in the next period. The current period (2025.06.09 - 2025.06.15) saw a total local bond issuance/net financing of 1077.86 billion yuan/-430.12 billion yuan (previous period was 1095.95 billion yuan/507.51 billion yuan), and the next period (2025.06.16 - 2025.06.22) is expected to have an issuance/net financing of 2617.53 billion yuan/1242.66 billion yuan [3]. - The issuance of new local bonds slowed down this period, and it is expected to speed up slightly in the next period. As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 45.1% and 35.2% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 48.5% and 36.2%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 40.5%/30.3% and 42.5%/33.4%, and in 2023 it was 52.1%/48.3% and 56.1%/52.2% [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local bonds in June 2025 is 10137 billion yuan in total, with new special bonds amounting to 5678 billion yuan. As of June 13, 2025, 27 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 10137 billion yuan for local bonds in June 2025, with new special bonds at 5678 billion yuan. The issuance in the same regions in the previous year was 4924 billion yuan and 2149 billion yuan respectively, and the national issuance in the previous year was 6714 billion yuan and 3327 billion yuan respectively [3]. - This period saw the issuance of 15 billion yuan in special new special bonds and 267 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts. As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 2454 billion yuan (15 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts reached 16835 billion yuan (267 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 84.2%. 21 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (no new regions this period) [3]. - This period saw a narrowing of the spread between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds, and a week - on - week increase in the weekly turnover rate. As of June 13, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 19.25BP and 23.15BP respectively, narrowing by 2.28BP and 0.25BP compared to June 6, 2025 (21.53BP and 23.40BP on June 6, 2025), and were at the 47.80% and 89.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local bonds this period was 1.15%, up from 0.69% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps were better than the national average [3]. - Currently, local bonds have both allocation and trading value. Taking 10 - year local bonds as an anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP. For institutions such as bank self - operations, insurance, and securities firm self - operations, local bonds have certain allocation value, and it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of local bonds with a term of 7 years and above, especially the 10/15/30 - year terms. For institutions such as public funds, local bonds still have trading value, and investment opportunities in local bonds can be seized at an appropriate time. It is recommended to focus on the participation opportunities of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year (with considerable riding income and good trading activity) and 20 - 30 - year (high absolute coupon and high trading activity) local bonds, and specifically select bonds in regions with high valuation cost - effectiveness and good liquidity [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period's local bond issuance decreased compared to the previous period, and the next period's issuance is expected to increase. The total issuance this period was 1077.86 billion yuan (previous period was 1095.95 billion yuan), and the next period's forecast issuance is 2617.53 billion yuan [3][11]. - The weighted issuance term of local bonds this period was 13.35 years, shorter than the previous period's 14.27 years [3][12]. - As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 45.1% and 35.2% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 48.5% and 36.2%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 40.5%/30.3% and 42.5%/33.4%, and in 2023 it was 52.1%/48.3% and 56.1%/52.2% [3][15][17]. - As of June 13, 2025, 27 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 10137 billion yuan for local bonds in June 2025, with new special bonds at 5678 billion yuan. The issuance in the same regions in the previous year was 4924 billion yuan and 2149 billion yuan respectively, and the national issuance in the previous year was 6714 billion yuan and 3327 billion yuan respectively [3][23]. - As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 2454 billion yuan (15 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts reached 16835 billion yuan (267 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 84.2%. 21 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (no new regions this period) [3][21]. 3.2 This period's 10Y and 30Y local bond spreads over treasury bonds both narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased month - on - month - As of June 13, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 19.25BP and 23.15BP respectively, narrowing by 2.28BP and 0.25BP compared to June 6, 2025 (21.53BP and 23.40BP on June 6, 2025), and were at the 47.80% and 89.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [3][25][30]. - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds this period was 1.15%, up from 0.69% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps were better than the national average [3][36].

2025 年 06 月 08 日 新增地方债发行降速，10Y 减国债 利差小幅收窄 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250606 相关研究 《发行与净融资环比均下降，10Y 减 国债利差大幅回升——地方债周度 跟踪 20250530 》 2025/06/02 《10Y 地方债减国债利差大幅收窄 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250523 》 2025/05/26 《发行和净融资环比上升，除 30Y 外其他期限减国债利差皆收窄—— 地方债周度跟踪 20250516 》 2025/05/18 《发行和净融资环比下降，7Y 及以 上减国债利差均收窄——地方债周 度跟踪 20250509》 2025/05/11 《发行和净融资均下降，10Y 和 30Y 减国债利差表现分化——地方债周 度跟踪 20250430 》 2025/05/05 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsrese ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that local government bond issuance may accelerate in the second quarter of 2025, but the impact on the market is expected to be relatively limited due to monetary policy coordination [2][23][28] - In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance pace of new bonds was slower compared to the same period in 2023, but the progress of replacing hidden debts was faster, with over two-thirds of the 2 trillion yuan quota already issued [2][11] - The second quarter is expected to see a significant increase in the issuance of special bonds, particularly those with a maturity of 10 years or more, driven by growth stabilization demands and policy guidance [2][13][16] Group 2 - Banks remain the main investors in local government bonds, but there has been a noticeable increase in the willingness of broad-based funds to allocate to these bonds since October 2023, with their investment share rising from 5.44% to 8.54% by February 2025 [3][28] - Different types of institutions have varying preferences for bond maturities, with insurance companies favoring long-term bonds (10 years and above), while fund companies have shown a tendency to chase market trends and are now focusing on bonds with maturities of 7 years and above [3][32] Group 3 - Local government bonds currently offer high value for both allocation and trading, with their liquidity being weaker than that of treasury bonds, leading to a lag in market performance [4][38] - The current yield spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds indicates a favorable price-performance ratio, with the spread for 10-year bonds reaching around 30 basis points, suggesting good investment opportunities [5][43][47] - The article recommends focusing on bonds with maturities of 5 years and above, particularly 15-year bonds, which exhibit strong value for allocation [6][43]