1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period have both increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, and it is expected that both will continue to rise in the next period. As of July 11, 2025, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds is faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2023. The spread between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and Treasury bonds has narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased month - on - month. Currently, the spread exploration space for local government bonds is shrinking, but they still have certain allocation and trading value for different institutions [4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance of local government bonds has increased, and the weighted issuance term has shortened - In the current period (2025.07.07 - 2025.07.13), local government bonds issued a total of 231.79 billion yuan and had a net financing of 107.789 billion yuan (the previous period was 72.139 billion yuan/21.676 billion yuan). The next period (2025.07.14 - 2025.07.20) is expected to issue 251.183 billion yuan and have a net financing of 152.933 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 14.17 years, shorter than the previous period's 14.63 years [4][14]. - As of July 11, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 58.3% and 50.6% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 61.7% and 54.3%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 48.5%/39.4% and 48.8%/40.2%, and in 2023 it was 62.2%/57.2% and 62.7%/57.6% [6][23]. - 29 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance of local government bonds from July to September 2025 totals 257.75 billion yuan, including 140.48 billion yuan of new special bonds. As of July 11, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 519.5 billion yuan (54.7 billion yuan issued in the current period), and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1,824.6 billion yuan (28.6 billion yuan issued in the current period), with an issuance progress of 91.2% [6][27]. 3.2 In this period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and Treasury bonds have both narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased month - on - month - As of July 11, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and Treasury bonds were 11.47BP and 16.59BP respectively, narrowing by 1.20BP and 0.25BP compared to July 4, 2025. They are at the 8.90% and 64.80% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 0.71%, a month - on - month decrease from the previous period's 1.04% [6][33][34]. - The current spread exploration space for local government bonds is shrinking. For institutions such as bank self - operation, insurance, and securities firm self - operation, local government bonds have certain allocation value, especially those with a term of 7 years and above, with 15/30 - year bonds being more cost - effective. For public funds and other institutions, local government bonds still have trading value, and it is recommended to focus on 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - 30 - year local government bonds [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased this period, and it is expected that both will rise significantly next period. As of June 20, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 48.5% and 38.4% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 54.9% and 47.7%. The current local government bonds still have certain allocation and trading value [4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased, and the Weighted Issuance Term Shortened - This period (June 16 - June 22, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 261.753 billion yuan/net financing of 124.266 billion yuan (last period was 107.786 billion yuan/-43.012 billion yuan), and next period (June 23 - June 29, 2025) is expected to issue/have net financing of 585.648 billion yuan/504.4 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 10.86 years, shorter than 13.35 years of the last period [4]. - As of June 20, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 48.5% and 38.4% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 54.9% and 47.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 42.5%/33.4% and 42.9%/36.6% respectively, and in 2023 it was 56.1%/52.2% and 57.3%/54.2% respectively [6]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from July - September 2025 is 218.34 billion yuan in total, among which new special bonds are 121.85 billion yuan. As of June 20, 2025, 24 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale of local government bonds from July - September 2025, with a total of 218.34 billion yuan (July - September are 103.69 billion yuan, 64.23 billion yuan, and 50.43 billion yuan respectively), among which new special bonds are 121.85 billion yuan [6]. - This period, 2.75 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 5.27 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts were issued. As of June 20, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 27.3 billion yuan (2.75 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 173.62 billion yuan (5.27 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 86.8%, among which 22 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (Shaanxi was newly added this period) [6]. 3.2 This Period: The Spreads between 10Y and 30Y Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Narrowed, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Declined - As of June 20, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 15.04BP and 19.24BP respectively, narrowing by 4.21BP and 3.91BP compared to June 13, 2025 (19.25BP and 23.15BP respectively on June 13, 2025), and were at the 20.1% and 73.9% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [6]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 1.10%, a decline compared to 1.15% of the last period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Yunnan were better than the national average [6]. - Currently, local government bonds still have certain allocation and trading value. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the issuance spread lower limit, and the bottom may be near the issuance spread lower limit. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This period's local bond issuance and net financing decreased compared to the previous period, and it is expected that both the issuance and net financing of local bonds will increase in the next period. The current period (2025.06.09 - 2025.06.15) saw a total local bond issuance/net financing of 1077.86 billion yuan/-430.12 billion yuan (previous period was 1095.95 billion yuan/507.51 billion yuan), and the next period (2025.06.16 - 2025.06.22) is expected to have an issuance/net financing of 2617.53 billion yuan/1242.66 billion yuan [3]. - The issuance of new local bonds slowed down this period, and it is expected to speed up slightly in the next period. As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 45.1% and 35.2% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 48.5% and 36.2%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 40.5%/30.3% and 42.5%/33.4%, and in 2023 it was 52.1%/48.3% and 56.1%/52.2% [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local bonds in June 2025 is 10137 billion yuan in total, with new special bonds amounting to 5678 billion yuan. As of June 13, 2025, 27 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 10137 billion yuan for local bonds in June 2025, with new special bonds at 5678 billion yuan. The issuance in the same regions in the previous year was 4924 billion yuan and 2149 billion yuan respectively, and the national issuance in the previous year was 6714 billion yuan and 3327 billion yuan respectively [3]. - This period saw the issuance of 15 billion yuan in special new special bonds and 267 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts. As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 2454 billion yuan (15 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts reached 16835 billion yuan (267 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 84.2%. 21 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (no new regions this period) [3]. - This period saw a narrowing of the spread between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds, and a week - on - week increase in the weekly turnover rate. As of June 13, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 19.25BP and 23.15BP respectively, narrowing by 2.28BP and 0.25BP compared to June 6, 2025 (21.53BP and 23.40BP on June 6, 2025), and were at the 47.80% and 89.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local bonds this period was 1.15%, up from 0.69% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps were better than the national average [3]. - Currently, local bonds have both allocation and trading value. Taking 10 - year local bonds as an anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP. For institutions such as bank self - operations, insurance, and securities firm self - operations, local bonds have certain allocation value, and it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of local bonds with a term of 7 years and above, especially the 10/15/30 - year terms. For institutions such as public funds, local bonds still have trading value, and investment opportunities in local bonds can be seized at an appropriate time. It is recommended to focus on the participation opportunities of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year (with considerable riding income and good trading activity) and 20 - 30 - year (high absolute coupon and high trading activity) local bonds, and specifically select bonds in regions with high valuation cost - effectiveness and good liquidity [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period's local bond issuance decreased compared to the previous period, and the next period's issuance is expected to increase. The total issuance this period was 1077.86 billion yuan (previous period was 1095.95 billion yuan), and the next period's forecast issuance is 2617.53 billion yuan [3][11]. - The weighted issuance term of local bonds this period was 13.35 years, shorter than the previous period's 14.27 years [3][12]. - As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 45.1% and 35.2% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 48.5% and 36.2%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 40.5%/30.3% and 42.5%/33.4%, and in 2023 it was 52.1%/48.3% and 56.1%/52.2% [3][15][17]. - As of June 13, 2025, 27 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 10137 billion yuan for local bonds in June 2025, with new special bonds at 5678 billion yuan. The issuance in the same regions in the previous year was 4924 billion yuan and 2149 billion yuan respectively, and the national issuance in the previous year was 6714 billion yuan and 3327 billion yuan respectively [3][23]. - As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 2454 billion yuan (15 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts reached 16835 billion yuan (267 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 84.2%. 21 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (no new regions this period) [3][21]. 3.2 This period's 10Y and 30Y local bond spreads over treasury bonds both narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased month - on - month - As of June 13, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 19.25BP and 23.15BP respectively, narrowing by 2.28BP and 0.25BP compared to June 6, 2025 (21.53BP and 23.40BP on June 6, 2025), and were at the 47.80% and 89.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [3][25][30]. - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds this period was 1.15%, up from 0.69% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps were better than the national average [3][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased both in the current period and are expected to decline in the next period. The current period (2025.06.02 - 2025.06.08) saw a total issuance/net financing of RMB 109.595 billion/RMB 50.751 billion, and the next period (2025.06.09 - 2025.06.15) is expected to be RMB 107.786 billion/RMB -43.012 billion [3]. - The issuance of new local government bonds has not accelerated, and the cumulative issuance progress is lower than that in 2023 but higher than in 2024. As of June 6, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 45.0% and 35.1% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 45.1% and 35.2% [3]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in June 2025 totals RMB 886.6 billion, including RMB 496.3 billion of new special bonds. As of June 6, 2025, 26 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of RMB 886.6 billion, with RMB 496.3 billion of new special bonds [3]. - The current period saw the issuance of RMB 1.6 billion of special new special bonds and RMB 27.7 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts. As of June 6, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached RMB 243.9 billion, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts reached RMB 1656.8 billion, with an issuance progress of 82.8% [3]. - Currently, local government bonds have both allocation and trading value. For institutions such as bank self - operations, insurance, and securities firm self - operations, local government bonds have allocation value, especially those with maturities of 7 years and above, particularly the 10/15/30 - year bonds. For institutions such as public funds, local government bonds still have trading value, and investment opportunities can be seized. Attention can be paid to 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - 30 - year local government bonds [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds decreased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The current period's total issuance of local government bonds was RMB 109.595 billion (compared to RMB 228.212 billion in the previous period), and the next period's forecasted issuance is RMB 107.786 billion. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 14.27 years, longer than the previous period's 13.26 years [3][11]. - As of June 6, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 45.0% and 35.1% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 45.1% and 35.2%. The cumulative issuance progress is lower than that in 2023 but higher than in 2024 [3][19]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in June 2025 totals RMB 886.6 billion, including RMB 496.3 billion of new special bonds. As of June 6, 2025, 26 regions have disclosed the planned issuance [3]. - The current period saw the issuance of RMB 1.6 billion of special new special bonds and RMB 27.7 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts. As of June 6, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached RMB 243.9 billion, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts reached RMB 1656.8 billion, with an issuance progress of 82.8% [3]. 3.2 This period, the spread between 10 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed slightly, and the weekly turnover rate decreased month - on - month - The spread between 10 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed by 1.35 BP, currently at 21.53 BP as of June 6, 2025. The spread between 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds remained unchanged, currently at 23.40 BP [27][31]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.69%, a month - on - month decrease from the previous period's 0.73% [36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that local government bond issuance may accelerate in the second quarter of 2025, but the impact on the market is expected to be relatively limited due to monetary policy coordination [2][23][28] - In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance pace of new bonds was slower compared to the same period in 2023, but the progress of replacing hidden debts was faster, with over two-thirds of the 2 trillion yuan quota already issued [2][11] - The second quarter is expected to see a significant increase in the issuance of special bonds, particularly those with a maturity of 10 years or more, driven by growth stabilization demands and policy guidance [2][13][16] Group 2 - Banks remain the main investors in local government bonds, but there has been a noticeable increase in the willingness of broad-based funds to allocate to these bonds since October 2023, with their investment share rising from 5.44% to 8.54% by February 2025 [3][28] - Different types of institutions have varying preferences for bond maturities, with insurance companies favoring long-term bonds (10 years and above), while fund companies have shown a tendency to chase market trends and are now focusing on bonds with maturities of 7 years and above [3][32] Group 3 - Local government bonds currently offer high value for both allocation and trading, with their liquidity being weaker than that of treasury bonds, leading to a lag in market performance [4][38] - The current yield spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds indicates a favorable price-performance ratio, with the spread for 10-year bonds reaching around 30 basis points, suggesting good investment opportunities [5][43][47] - The article recommends focusing on bonds with maturities of 5 years and above, particularly 15-year bonds, which exhibit strong value for allocation [6][43]