证券分析师 2025 年 08 月 24 日 新增地方债发行提速，30Y 减国债 利差大幅走阔 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250822 相关研究 《发行继续降速，10Y 地方债减国债 利差走阔 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250815》 2025/08/17 《发行开始降速，近期流动性下降 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250808》 2025/08/10 《发行继续提速，减国债利差走阔— —地方债周度跟踪 20250801》 2025/08/04 《新增地方债发行提速，挖利差行情 或接近尾声——地方债周度跟踪 20250725》 2025/07/27 《新增地方债发行开始提速——地 方债周度跟踪 20250718》 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearch.com ⚫ 风险提示：部分数据统计可能不完全，数据统计存在误差。 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 研 究 债 券 周 评 证 券 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week-on-week basis this period, but are expected to increase significantly next period. The weighted issuance term shortened. The spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, while the spread for 30Y narrowed. The weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis. The current cost-effectiveness of exploring the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds is not high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Issuance and Net Financing - This period (2025.8.11 - 2025.8.17), local government bonds issued a total of 914.32 billion yuan, with a net financing of -137.36 billion yuan (last period was 1654.59 billion yuan/828.48 billion yuan). Next period (2025.8.18 - 2025.8.24), it is expected to issue 3691.50 billion yuan and have a net financing of 2088.00 billion yuan [2][4][6]. 2. Issuance Progress - As of August 15, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 71.9% and 63.9% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 73.1% and 69.3%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 58.3%/49.2% and 61.1%/52.1%, and in 2023 it was 70.4%/67.7% and 73.7%/69.0% [2][4][15]. 3. Planned Issuance in August - September 2025 - As of August 15, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 1638.8 billion yuan for local government bonds in August - September 2025 (8 - 9 months are 963.3 billion yuan and 675.5 billion yuan respectively), including 969.3 billion yuan for new special bonds [2][4][17]. 4. Special Bond Issuance - This period, 12.4 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 1.2 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of August 15, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 807.7 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1883 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 94.2%. 26 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (Dalian was newly added this period) [2]. 5. Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of August 15, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 19.35BP and 11.25BP respectively, widening by 6.26BP and narrowing by 2.75BP compared to August 8, 2025. They are at the 51.50% and 34.70% historical quantiles since 2023. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.65%, up from 0.57% last period [2][21][25]. 6. Cost - Effectiveness of Spread Exploration - Taking 10 - year local government bonds as the observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - From July 7th to July 13th, local government bonds were issued with a total of 231.79 billion yuan, including 78.487 billion yuan in new bonds and 153.303 billion yuan in refinancing bonds. From July 14th to July 20th, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 251.183 billion yuan, including 189.046 billion yuan in new bonds and 62.137 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [2][4][5]. - As of July 13th, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 4.194012 trillion yuan, with 1.805487 trillion yuan disclosed in 2025. The total disclosed special new special - purpose bonds in 2025 reached 486.526 billion yuan, and 1.677039 trillion yuan since 2023 [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - The net supply of local government bonds from July 7th to July 13th was 110.2 billion yuan, and the forecasted net supply from July 14th to July 20th is 150.5 billion yuan [12][15]. - Comparing the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in June and July shows differences in new bonds, new general bonds, new special - purpose bonds, and refinancing bonds [14][17]. Local Bond Net Supply - As of July 13th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 56.80%, and that of new special - purpose bonds was 50.25%. The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities for the year is presented in the relevant chart [26]. Special Bond Issuance Details - As of July 13th, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds' issuance statistics by region are provided, with different amounts in each round and region. The issuance statistics of special new special - purpose bonds from 2023 to 2025 by region are also shown [32][35]. Local Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds are presented, including the changes in spreads for different maturities and regions [39][42]. New Special - Purpose Bond Investment Directions - The investment directions of new special - purpose bonds are presented, with a note that the latest monthly statistics only consider issued new bonds [45].