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地方债周度跟踪:减国债利差皆收窄,下周发行明显提速-20251123
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-23 09:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this period, but are expected to increase significantly next period. The issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.11.17 - 2025.11.23) was 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan, and the expected issuance/net financing for next period (2025.11.24 - 2025.11.30) is 351.461 billion yuan/326.313 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds slowed down this period and is expected to speed up significantly next period. As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 91.4% and 100.7% considering the expected issuance next period [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan in total, with new special bonds amounting to 347.5 billion yuan [2]. - The spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds for 10 - year and 30 - year terms narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of November 21, 2025, the spreads were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025 [2]. - The spreads between 15/20/30 - year, especially 15 - year, local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain value for investment [2]. 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased this period compared to the previous period, but is expected to increase next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.30 years, longer than 13.90 years in the previous period [2][5][10]. - As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 91.4% and 100.7% considering the expected issuance next period. The cumulative issuance progress is lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2][13][16]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan in total, with new special bonds amounting to 347.5 billion yuan. As of November 21, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed the planned issuance [2][24][25]. - This period, special new special bonds worth 4.9 billion yuan were issued, and special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued at 0 billion yuan and 40 billion yuan respectively [2][20][21]. 3.2 This period, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis - As of November 21, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025, and are at the 18.00% and 69.70% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][30][34]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.80%, up from 0.71% in the previous period [2][37][38]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Xiamen, Beijing, and Jiangxi are better than the national average [2]. - The spreads between 15/20/30 - year, especially 15 - year, local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain value for investment. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread [2].
7Y以上地方债减国债利差收窄,下周发行明显提速:地方债周度跟踪20251107-20251110
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-10 03:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a sequential basis this period, and are expected to increase significantly on a sequential basis next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds lengthened. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a sequential basis. The current spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Current Situation of Local Government Bond Issuance - This period (from November 3, 2025, to November 9, 2025), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 9.1607 billion yuan/-3.3641 billion yuan (compared to 27.0682 billion yuan/17.5677 billion yuan in the previous period). It is expected that the issuance/net financing next period (from November 10, 2025, to November 16, 2025) will be 28.5067 billion yuan/24.2792 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.57 years, longer than 13.72 years in the previous period [2][6]. - As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 86.2% and 90.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 87.8% and 93.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.6%/97.0% and 88.9%/97.2%, and in 2023 was 91.5%/94.4% and 91.6%/94.4% [2][15]. - As of November 7, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance scale of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 71.33 billion yuan (70.16 billion yuan and 1.17 billion yuan in November and December respectively), including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds (34.39 billion yuan and 0.36 billion yuan in November and December respectively). The issuance in the same period last year in the same regions was 189.76 billion yuan and 7.18 billion yuan, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 240.54 billion yuan and 10.68 billion yuan [2]. - This period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 100 million yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 0 yuan and 570 million yuan respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 125.18 billion yuan (100 million yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.34 billion yuan (0 yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.7%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance (no new regions this period); since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 - billion - yuan unused quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 5.07 billion yuan (570 million yuan issued this period) [2]. 3.2 Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of November 7, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.58BP and 20.19BP respectively, narrowing by 2.88BP and 3.50BP compared to October 31, 2025 (23.46BP and 23.69BP on October 31, 2025), and were at the 58.70% and 77.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.87%, increasing on a sequential basis compared to 0.70% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qingdao were better than the national average this period [2]. - Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].
地方债周度跟踪:7Y以上地方债减国债利差收窄,下周发行明显提速-20251110
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-10 02:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week-on-week basis this period, and are expected to increase significantly on a week-on-week basis next period. The current weighted issuance term of local government bonds has lengthened compared to the previous period [2]. - The current issuance progress of new local government bonds is relatively slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 71.33 billion yuan, including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds [2]. - The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis. The spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain cost-effectiveness [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased this period, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds this period (November 3 - November 9, 2025) was 91.607 billion yuan (compared to 270.682 billion yuan in the previous period), and the net financing was -33.641 billion yuan. The expected issuance and net financing next period (November 10 - November 16, 2025) are 285.067 billion yuan and 242.792 billion yuan respectively [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.57 years, which was longer than 13.72 years in the previous period [2][10]. - As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 86.2% and 90.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 87.8% and 93.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.6%/97.0% and 88.9%/97.2%, and in 2023 it was 91.5%/94.4% and 91.6%/94.4% [2][13][16]. - As of November 7, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 71.33 billion yuan for local government bonds from November to December 2025 (70.16 billion yuan in November and 1.17 billion yuan in December), including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds (34.39 billion yuan in November and 0.36 billion yuan in December) [2][24]. - This period, 1 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 0 billion yuan and 5.7 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 125.18 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.34 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.7%, and 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 5.07 billion yuan [2][20]. 2. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis - As of November 7, 2025, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.58BP and 20.19BP respectively, narrowing by 2.88BP and 3.50BP compared to October 31, 2025. They are at the 58.70% and 77.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][30][34]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.87%, increasing on a week-on-week basis compared to 0.70% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qingdao are better than the national average [2][37]. - Taking the 10Y local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].
地方债周度跟踪:发行持续放缓,减国债利差表现分化-20251012
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-12 13:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased both in the current period and are expected to decline in the next period. The current issuance and net financing are 825.28 billion yuan and 386.37 billion yuan respectively, and the next period's expected issuance and net financing are 323.01 billion yuan and -197.81 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The issuance progress of new local government bonds has slowed down, and the cumulative issuance progress is lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024. As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 83.9% and 83.0% of the annual quota respectively [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from October to November 2025 is 892.1 billion yuan, including 500.9 billion yuan of new special bonds [3]. - The yield spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, while the spread for 30Y local government bonds narrowed. The weekly turnover rate decreased compared to the previous period [3]. - The cost - effectiveness of exploring the yield spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has increased, and 10Y local government bonds are more cost - effective [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased in the current period, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The current issuance of local government bonds totaled 825.28 billion yuan (compared to 1960.51 billion yuan in the previous period), and the next - period forecast issuance is 323.01 billion yuan [3][10]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 12.93 years, significantly shorter than the 19.81 years in the previous period [3][12]. - As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 83.9% and 83.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the next - period forecast issuance, they are 83.9% and 83.4% respectively [3][13][17]. - As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds is 1202.9 billion yuan (1.7 billion yuan was issued in the current period), and the cumulative issuance of replacement hidden - debt special refinancing bonds is 1986.2 billion yuan (0 billion yuan was issued in the current period), with an issuance progress of 99.3% [3]. 2. The yield spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period widened for 10Y and narrowed for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of October 10, 2025, the yield spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds are 25.40BP and 15.71BP respectively, widening by 3.08BP and narrowing by 2.59BP compared to September 26, 2025 [3][27][32]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 0.35%, a decrease compared to 0.89% in the previous period [3][40]. - The yield and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Jilin, Tianjin, and Sichuan are better than the national average [3].
地方债周度跟踪:发行回落,新增地方债累计发行进度约80%-20250921
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-21 14:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this period, and it is expected to increase on a week - on - week basis in the next period. The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.9.15 - 2025.9.21) was 188.519 billion yuan/30.855 billion yuan (the previous period was 301.672 billion yuan/192.779 billion yuan), and it is expected to be 196.051 billion yuan/122.461 billion yuan in the next period (2025.9.22 - 2025.9.28) [3]. - The cumulative issuance progress of new local government bonds is higher than that of the same period in 2024 but lower than that of the same period in 2023. As of September 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 82.0% and 79.2% of the annual quota respectively, and it will be 82.7% and 82.6% considering the expected issuance in the next period [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from September to October 2025 is 1.1384 trillion yuan, of which new special bonds account for 668.8 billion yuan [3]. - The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of September 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 16.11BP and 17.04BP respectively, narrowing by 3.19BP and 0.56BP compared to September 12, 2025 [3]. - Currently, the cost - effectiveness of exploring the spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds is not high [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.9.15 - 2025.9.21) was 188.519 billion yuan/30.855 billion yuan, compared with 301.672 billion yuan/192.779 billion yuan in the previous period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period was 15.89 years, shorter than 17.84 years in the previous period [3]. - As of September 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 82.0% and 79.2% of the annual quota respectively, and it will be 82.7% and 82.6% considering the expected issuance in the next period. In 2024, the cumulative issuance progress was 77.1%/71.7% and 82.1%/85.0% respectively, and in 2023, it was 85.6%/81.6% and 89.6%/84.7% respectively [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from September to October 2025 is 1.1384 trillion yuan (753.8 billion yuan in September and 384.6 billion yuan in October), of which new special bonds account for 668.8 billion yuan (438.5 billion yuan in September and 230.3 billion yuan in October) [3]. - As of September 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1.1506 trillion yuan (52.1 billion yuan was issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1.9747 trillion yuan (21.4 billion yuan was issued this period), with an issuance progress of 98.7%, and 31 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (Guizhou was added this period) [3]. 3.2 This period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis - As of September 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 16.11BP and 17.04BP respectively, narrowing by 3.19BP and 0.56BP compared to September 12, 2025, and were at the 30.40% and 66.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [3]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in this period was 0.87%, increasing from 0.78% in the previous period on a week - on - week basis. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shandong and other regions were better than the national average [3]. - Taking the 10 - year local government bond as the observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [3].
地方债周度跟踪:新增地方债发行提速,30Y减国债利差大幅走阔-20250824
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-24 13:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the next period. The current period (August 18 - August 24, 2025) saw a total issuance/net financing of RMB 369.15 billion/RMB 208.80 billion (previous period: RMB 91.432 billion/RMB -13.736 billion), and the next period (August 25 - August 31, 2025) is expected to have an issuance/net financing of RMB 351.597 billion/RMB 243.653 billion [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds started to accelerate in the current period. As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 73.1% and 69.3% of the annual quota respectively, higher than the same period in 2024 but comparable to 2023 [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from August to September 2025 totals RMB 1.7503 trillion, including RMB 1.063 trillion of new special bonds [2]. - The current period saw the issuance of RMB 9.75 billion of special new special bonds, RMB 2.12 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, and RMB 0.33 billion of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts [2]. - The spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, while the spread between 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened significantly in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased compared to the previous period. As of August 22, 2025, the spreads were 18.82BP and 21.25BP respectively, narrowing by 0.53BP and widening by 10.00BP compared to August 15, 2025 [2]. - The cost - effectiveness of exploiting the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds is not high at present [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local government bond issuance volume increased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (August 18 - August 24, 2025) was RMB 369.15 billion, compared to RMB 91.432 billion in the previous period. The next period (August 25 - August 31, 2025) is expected to issue RMB 351.597 billion [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 17.35 years, longer than 12.42 years in the previous period (August 11 - August 17, 2025) [2][10]. - As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 73.1% and 69.3% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 77.6% and 73.6%. In 2024, the cumulative issuance progress was 61.1%/52.1% and 67.7%/60.6%, and in 2023, it was 73.7%/69.0% and 80.7%/75.1% [2][18]. - As of August 22, 2025, 30 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of local government bonds of RMB 1.7503 trillion from August to September 2025 (RMB 1.0238 trillion in August and RMB 0.7265 trillion in September), including RMB 1.063 trillion of new special bonds [2][22]. - In the current period, RMB 9.75 billion of special new special bonds were issued, and the cumulative issuance reached RMB 90.52 billion. RMB 2.12 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued, with a cumulative issuance of RMB 190.42 billion and a progress of 95.2%. RMB 0.33 billion of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued in Guizhou [2]. 3.2 This period's 30Y local government bond - treasury bond spread widened significantly, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of August 22, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 18.82BP and 21.25BP respectively, narrowing by 0.53BP and widening by 10.00BP compared to August 15, 2025, and were at the 49.40% and 83.60% historical quantiles since 2023 [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.62%, a decrease from 0.65% in the previous period [2]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Qingdao, Sichuan, and Qinghai are better than the national average [2]. - Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].
地方债周度跟踪:发行继续降速,10Y地方债减国债利差走阔-20250817
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-17 13:08
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week-on-week basis this period, but are expected to increase significantly next period. The weighted issuance term shortened. The spread between 10Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, while the spread for 30Y narrowed. The weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis. The current cost-effectiveness of exploring the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds is not high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Issuance and Net Financing - This period (2025.8.11 - 2025.8.17), local government bonds issued a total of 914.32 billion yuan, with a net financing of -137.36 billion yuan (last period was 1654.59 billion yuan/828.48 billion yuan). Next period (2025.8.18 - 2025.8.24), it is expected to issue 3691.50 billion yuan and have a net financing of 2088.00 billion yuan [2][4][6]. 2. Issuance Progress - As of August 15, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 71.9% and 63.9% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 73.1% and 69.3%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 58.3%/49.2% and 61.1%/52.1%, and in 2023 it was 70.4%/67.7% and 73.7%/69.0% [2][4][15]. 3. Planned Issuance in August - September 2025 - As of August 15, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 1638.8 billion yuan for local government bonds in August - September 2025 (8 - 9 months are 963.3 billion yuan and 675.5 billion yuan respectively), including 969.3 billion yuan for new special bonds [2][4][17]. 4. Special Bond Issuance - This period, 12.4 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 1.2 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of August 15, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 807.7 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1883 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 94.2%. 26 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (Dalian was newly added this period) [2]. 5. Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of August 15, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 19.35BP and 11.25BP respectively, widening by 6.26BP and narrowing by 2.75BP compared to August 8, 2025. They are at the 51.50% and 34.70% historical quantiles since 2023. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.65%, up from 0.57% last period [2][21][25]. 6. Cost - Effectiveness of Spread Exploration - Taking 10 - year local government bonds as the observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].
政府债周报(7、13):新增专项债发行进度50.25%-20250714
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-14 11:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - From July 7th to July 13th, local government bonds were issued with a total of 231.79 billion yuan, including 78.487 billion yuan in new bonds and 153.303 billion yuan in refinancing bonds. From July 14th to July 20th, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 251.183 billion yuan, including 189.046 billion yuan in new bonds and 62.137 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [2][4][5]. - As of July 13th, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 4.194012 trillion yuan, with 1.805487 trillion yuan disclosed in 2025. The total disclosed special new special - purpose bonds in 2025 reached 486.526 billion yuan, and 1.677039 trillion yuan since 2023 [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - The net supply of local government bonds from July 7th to July 13th was 110.2 billion yuan, and the forecasted net supply from July 14th to July 20th is 150.5 billion yuan [12][15]. - Comparing the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in June and July shows differences in new bonds, new general bonds, new special - purpose bonds, and refinancing bonds [14][17]. Local Bond Net Supply - As of July 13th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 56.80%, and that of new special - purpose bonds was 50.25%. The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities for the year is presented in the relevant chart [26]. Special Bond Issuance Details - As of July 13th, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds' issuance statistics by region are provided, with different amounts in each round and region. The issuance statistics of special new special - purpose bonds from 2023 to 2025 by region are also shown [32][35]. Local Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds are presented, including the changes in spreads for different maturities and regions [39][42]. New Special - Purpose Bond Investment Directions - The investment directions of new special - purpose bonds are presented, with a note that the latest monthly statistics only consider issued new bonds [45].