固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 化债见效，地方国企首发债有何特点?——"源 头活水"地方政府转型系列报告（二） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary] 2025 年，在中央"积极有序化解地方政府债务风险"的部署下，城投债市场迎来转型的关键期。 虽然城投类主体融资环境整体依然严格，但 2025 年却出现值得关注的现象：以城投为代表的 地方国企首次发债主体、债券数量及规模较 2024 年有所增长，这可能表明地方国企融资环境 出现积极信号。未来，地方国企新增债券以及城投平台转型后发行的债券或将成为信用债增量， 有助于缓释目前利差大幅收敛的压力，但区域禀赋差异、发行主体资质分化，或将重塑原有城 投债定价逻辑，以城投为代表的地方国企债券或迎来分化及重定价。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 22 %% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 %% %% research. ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that city investment platforms are accelerating the separation from government financing functions, transitioning from nominal withdrawal to substantial market-oriented transformation due to strict regulatory policies and tightened financing conditions since the new round of debt cycle began [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The dual pressure of strict regulation and financing tightening is driving city investment platforms to enhance their market-oriented operations [1] - The deadline for nominal withdrawal from platforms is approaching in June 2027, leading to significant regional differentiation [1] Group 2: Regional Performance - Economically strong provinces are leading the way in asset integration to break through challenges, while weaker regions face a vacuum dilemma of "decoupling without transition" [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - It is expected that high-quality leading platforms will better adapt to the identity of market-oriented operators and participate in market competition [1] - The focus of debt resolution may shift from implicit debt to operational debt of platforms, with the transformation of financing platforms moving from reduction to quality enhancement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new round of debt restructuring cycle is characterized by strict regulatory policies and tightened financing, leading local government financing platforms to accelerate the separation of their financing functions and transition from nominal withdrawal to substantial market-oriented transformation [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The dual pressure from regulatory strictness and financing constraints is driving local government financing platforms to evolve [1] - There is a significant regional differentiation as the deadline for platform withdrawal approaches in June 2027 [1] Group 2: Regional Performance - Economically strong provinces are leading the way in asset integration to break through challenges, while weaker regions face a vacuum due to the disconnect between withdrawal and transformation [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - It is expected that high-quality leading platforms will better adapt to the identity of market-oriented operators and participate in market competition [1] - The focus of debt restructuring may shift from implicit debt to operational debt of platforms, with the transformation of financing platforms moving from reduction to quality enhancement [1]

Core Insights - The city investment bond market is transitioning from a risk mitigation phase to a new cycle focused on operational capability and transformation as debt resolution becomes normalized and city investment bond supply continues to shrink by 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The city investment bond market is expected to experience a contraction in issuance, with a focus on "controlling growth and preserving existing bonds," leading to a year-on-year decrease in total issuance and continued negative net financing [2] - The market is shifting from regional credit risk to the operational capabilities and sustainable transformation of platforms, indicating a structural change in focus [3] Group 2: Platform Transformation - City investment platforms are accelerating the cleanup of non-core businesses and reallocating resources towards infrastructure, industrial investment, and technology projects, which is expected to enhance cash flow sustainability [3][4] - The transformation of city investment platforms is characterized by a shift from relying on government credit to establishing operational credit, with platforms actively reducing scale and exiting inefficient projects to stabilize cash flow [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - By 2026, the market is anticipated to present both opportunities and challenges, with high-quality platforms remaining a primary choice for stable funding, while platforms with transformation potential may offer structural opportunities [6] - The liquidity pressure in weaker regions is expected to remain a concern, particularly as large-scale debt maturities from previous borrowing practices will become evident in 2026 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of urban investment companies (城投公司) from government financing platforms to modern state-owned enterprises is accelerating, driven by policy changes and market pressures [1][2][5]. Group 1: Factors Driving Transformation - A total of 210 urban investment companies have shed their roles as local government financing platforms from January to August 2025 [1]. - Policy initiatives aimed at reducing local government hidden debt risks have mandated urban investment companies to divest their financing functions [1]. - Increasing financing pressures and regulatory constraints have compelled many urban investment companies to exit the platform model to access broader financing channels [1][5]. Group 2: Characteristics of Companies Exiting the Platform - Companies opting to exit the platform primarily hold credit ratings of AA and AA+ and are mainly at the county-level administrative tier [1]. - The majority of these companies are located in economically developed regions with stringent debt management, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Shandong [1]. Group 3: Market-Oriented Transformation - Urban investment companies must focus on sectors that directly create new growth points, moving beyond traditional infrastructure projects to modern service industries that enhance consumption and improve livelihoods [2]. - Successful examples of transformation include companies diversifying into advanced manufacturing and modern services, thereby shifting from passive development to proactive engagement in emerging industries [3]. Group 4: Enhancing Operational Capabilities - The key to successful transformation lies in improving the "self-sustaining" capabilities of urban investment companies, allowing them to operate independently of government support [4][6]. - Future strategies include strengthening data governance, enhancing collaboration with technology firms, and optimizing service ecosystems to stimulate market vitality [6]. Group 5: Policy Support for Transformation - Experts emphasize the need for clear and detailed transformation policies to guide urban investment companies [7]. - Recommendations include easing market financing restrictions, providing diversified financing channels, and favoring market-oriented urban investment companies in resource allocation for infrastructure projects [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the financial performance of 2,088 urban investment platforms as of May 30, 2025, and finds that the integration of urban investment platforms has achieved significant results, with a slowdown in the growth rates of assets and debts, and an acceleration of the transformation from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Asset Side - The total asset scale of urban investment platforms increased steadily in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.26%, a decrease of 4.40 percentage points compared to 2023. The asset growth rates of platforms with asset sizes above 100 billion, between 50 and 100 billion, and below 50 billion were 8.79%, 3.12%, and -0.38% respectively, indicating faster growth for leading platforms [4][14]. - The growth rate of public welfare assets was 4.97%, and that of operating assets was 10.81%, with the growth rate difference expanding to 5.84 percentage points, reflecting an accelerated transformation from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" [4][14]. - In terms of public welfare assets, the growth rate of inventory decreased from 8.69% in 2023 to 3.35% in 2024, mainly due to debt supervision and the impact of the land market. The growth rate of accounts receivable decreased from 10.99% to 8.35%, and the proportion of growing entities decreased by 2.83 percentage points, indicating improved collection of public welfare projects [5][15]. - In 2024, the growth rates of cash inflows and outflows related to other operations of platforms decreased significantly, reflecting a decreasing dependence between urban investment platforms and the government [5][18]. - The operating asset scale of urban investment platforms reached 18.32 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for about 13.00% of the total asset scale, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.81%. The growth rate of provincial platforms increased from 10.45% to 12.09%, while those of municipal and county-level platforms slowed down significantly [6][18]. Liability and Equity Side - In terms of the financing environment, the growth rate of the monetary funds of urban investment platforms was -9.27% in 2024, and the proportion of growing entities decreased by 9.48 percentage points. The proportions of growing entities in cash inflows and outflows from financing activities both decreased, indicating a tight refinancing environment [7][32]. - The total scale of interest-bearing debts increased in 2024, with the growth rate decreasing from 19.68% to 4.77%, and the proportion of entities with increased interest-bearing debts decreased by 22.89 percentage points [7][32]. - In terms of debt structure, affected by financing policies, the proportion of bank loans increased significantly, the bond scale decreased slightly, and the non-standard scale decreased significantly. The proportion of short-term debts increased, showing a short-term debt structure [7][32]. - The owner's equity scale of urban investment platforms continued to grow in 2024, with the growth rate decreasing from 8.61% to 4.02%, and the proportion of entities with increased net assets decreased by 8.86 percentage points. Provincial platforms with higher asset - equity scales and stronger financing capabilities received more resource support, with a net asset growth rate of over 6% [7][40]. Financial Indicators - The financing cost of urban investment platforms continued to decline in 2024, but the growth rate increased slightly compared to 2023, and the proportion of entities with increased comprehensive financing costs increased by 21.12 percentage points [45]. - In terms of debt burden, the overall asset - liability ratio of sample urban investment platforms was 61.90% in 2024, an increase of 0.83 and 0.46 percentage points compared to 2022 and 2023 respectively, with a narrowing increase [45]. - In terms of liquidity, the current ratio of sample urban investment platforms was 2.04 times in 2024, and the monetary - short - debt ratio was 0.38 times, indicating a weakening of short - term solvency indicators, but still within a reasonable range [45]. Regional Changes in 2024 - In terms of interest - bearing debt scale, provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Shandong, and Hubei had large interest - bearing debt scales, all above 3 trillion yuan, with an average growth rate of 6.22%. Provinces with interest - bearing debt scales above 1 trillion yuan had an average growth rate of 2.80%, and those below 1 trillion yuan had an average growth rate of 1.08% [47][49]. - In terms of direct financing, the average growth rate of the outstanding bond scale of urban investment in 2024 was 3.71%, concentrated in provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Sichuan, and Guangdong, which accounted for about 50% of the total urban investment bond scale [50][51]. - In terms of bank loans, the average growth rate of bank borrowing scale in 2024 was 8.42%. Provinces such as Hainan, Guangxi, Jilin, Yunnan, and Chongqing had a bank loan proportion of over 70% [52]. - In terms of non - standard financing, the growth rate of non - standard financing decreased from 2.06% to - 44.71% in 2024, showing an overall downward trend [52].