结构性错配
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越南楼市陷入“越涨越抢”怪圈,供需错配与价格狂飙交织
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 09:24
近期,越南河内等主要城市掀起抢房潮——部分新盘开盘即"日光"、社会住房申请者通宵排队、房价持 续飙升。 有人倒卖社会住房赚差价,高额价差让他们宁愿彻夜排队;有人则盯上"行政区划调整传言",通过消息 炒作让房价暴涨。 这波越南"抢房潮"究竟是真实需求爆发,还是"谣言式炒作"的泡沫游戏?在结构性矛盾与投资热潮交织 下,越南楼市未来走势备受关注。 "排队抢房"正在越南上演 排队购房、房价越涨越抢手、倒卖房子赚差价……这些熟悉的套路正在越南上演。 据越南当地媒体报道,2025年第三季度,在越南的河内等大城市出现了一种现象——新开盘的项目价格 高于去年同期,但仍有良好去化,不少楼盘在开盘首日就"售罄"。 今年10月,一个位于河内、名为"阳光传奇城(Sunshine Legend City)"的经济适用房楼盘推出1000套房 源,竟吸引4000人次登记预订,正式开盘当天就"日光"了。 越南建设部(Ministry of Construction)数据显示,今年第三季度,河内全市场平均初级销售价格达到 8000万越南盾/平方米(约合人民币2.1万元/平方米),较年初上涨5.6%,较2024年同期上涨33%。许多 高端项目的 ...
教师短缺,正在成为全球教育系统的“结构性地震”
3 6 Ke· 2025-11-27 08:15
导语 同时,空岗问题日益严重。报告指出,在14个国家中,开学时尚未被完全合格教师填补的岗位比例一般低于3%,但在瑞典,这 一数字高达6704个,远高于多数国家。这些问题集中出现在偏远地区、特需教育岗位及技术类课程,进而引发教育机会不均、 教学质量参差等一系列衍生问题。 教师短缺已经不再是资源"总量"问题,而是以"结构性错配"的形式,系统性地侵蚀教育系统的稳定与公平。 02 结构性塌方:当教师队伍的"根"开始松动 教师队伍短缺的本质,不是人员减少,而是体系失衡。从全球经验看,职业吸引力下降、资格体系僵化、教师支持机制缺失等 问题交织,正在导致一场潜在的结构性危机。 首先是职业吸引力的下降。在许多国家,教师面临的薪酬待遇并不具备市场竞争力,职业晋升路径缺乏弹性,社会地位边际 化,导致"教书不如转行"成为不少年轻人的现实选择。在OECD调查中,高离职率的国家普遍伴随着对教师职业满意度降低的反 馈。以色列数据显示,教师主动辞职比例居高不下,超过34%的辞职者为职业初期教师。 在许多国家,教师岗位曾经是稳定、受尊敬、值得托付终身的职业象征。但在当下的教育系统中,这一职业正面临空前的结构 性挑战。根据OECD(经济与合作 ...
普惠保险破局:从“牙签”到支柱的生态重构
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-26 12:18
普惠保险,为何难以真正"靠得住"?在"十五五"从"广覆盖"迈向"高质量"的关键阶段,如何破解"低保费、高保障、多盈利"这一"不可能三 角",让普惠保险成为普通人可信赖的风险屏障? 这场关乎风险兜底的探索,亟待找到破局答案。 21世纪经济报道 记者杨希 实习生刘晴 在医疗保障体系中,如果将基本医保比作一根承重柱,居民自费是另一根支柱,那么商业健康保险目前还只是一根"牙签"。 公开信息显示,2023年,我国医保支出达2.8万亿元,占居民总医疗支出的50%;个人卫生支出2.5万亿元,占比44%;而商业健康保险赔付额 约为0.38万亿元,仅占7%左右。 普惠保险的演进与使命:从"广覆盖"到"高质量" 这一结构性失衡背后,是灵活就业人员、60岁以上老人等群体面临的个性化风险保障缺失。传统商业保险因"高门槛"形成覆盖盲区,而"惠民 保"等普惠产品又面临参保率下滑、盈利承压等挑战。 普惠保险的核心要义,在于以可负担的成本为更广泛人群提供适当、有效的保险保障。这一属性与我国保险市场当前的需求现状高度契合—— 截至 2024 年末,基本医保和基本养老保险覆盖率达95%以上,仍有灵活就业人员、60岁以上老人等群体面临个性化风险, ...
上海财经大学刘莉亚:银行风控逻辑与科创企业长周期需求出现结构性错配,建议构建多元化科创金融体系
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-17 11:21
Group 1: Event Overview - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference is scheduled to take place from October 16 to 18 in Shanghai at the Expo Park [1] - The conference is co-hosted by the World Green Design Organization (WGDO) and Sina Group, with support from the Shanghai Huangpu District Government [1] - Shenneng Group serves as the global partner for the conference, focusing on sustainable development and industrial upgrades in Shanghai [1] Group 2: Financial System Challenges - Liu Liya, Vice President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, highlighted a structural mismatch between traditional banking's risk assessment and the uncertainty of tech innovation companies [3] - In Q2 2025, bank-led financial support for tech innovation reached 3.46 trillion, with tech innovation bonds at 1.38 trillion, indicating a reliance on banks for financing [3] - The mismatch arises as banks seek guaranteed returns and collateral, while tech companies face high uncertainty and long cycles [3] Group 3: Bond Market Issues - The structural contradiction is evident in the tech innovation bond market, where low-risk commercial banks dominate, leading to shorter bond durations and a lack of high-yield options [4] - This situation fails to meet the long-term, high-risk financing needs of tech innovation companies [4] - Liu Liya suggests creating a tech innovation financial mechanism to foster win-win scenarios for innovators and investors, promoting risk-sharing and attracting social and international capital [4]
36.9亿大单竟是″空气合同″?股东暴增17.8万,董事长却套现41.8亿
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 03:24
Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the significant stock sell-off by major shareholders, particularly the chairman of Xinyiseng, who cashed out 4.18 billion yuan in Hainan Huatie stocks, raising concerns about the implications for retail investors [1][17] - Hainan Huatie's stock price surged after announcing a 3.69 billion yuan contract, only to later reveal the contract was voided, resulting in no revenue or product delivery [1][11] - The number of shareholders in Hainan Huatie increased dramatically from 46,000 to 224,000, indicating a large influx of retail investors during a speculative phase [1][11] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry, particularly in computing power chips, has seen explosive growth, with companies like Xinyiseng and Zhongji Xuchuang experiencing stock price increases of 345% and 228% respectively [3][4] - However, the market is becoming saturated with numerous companies entering the space, leading to intense competition and concerns about the sustainability of such growth [4][7] - The performance of domestic chips is reportedly inadequate, with only about 10% of projects in intelligent computing centers being operational due to poor performance and low utilization rates [5][15] Group 3 - Major shareholders are strategically selling their stocks at peak prices, with Xinyiseng's chairman and Zhongji Xuchuang's controlling shareholder planning significant sell-offs [8][9] - The current market valuations for companies like Cambricon are extraordinarily high, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 400, raising questions about the sustainability of such valuations [12][14] - The disparity between high valuations of domestic companies compared to established players like AMD and NVIDIA, which have more robust market positions, highlights potential overvaluation risks in the sector [14][18] Group 4 - The current state of intelligent computing centers reveals a mismatch in supply and demand, with a significant portion of purchased chips not being utilized effectively [15][18] - The industry is experiencing a structural mismatch, where high-end computing power is still in demand, but low-end, ineffective chips are oversupplied [15][18] - Historical parallels are drawn to the "chip fever" of 2018, suggesting that the current hype around computing power chips may lead to a similar outcome of market correction [15][18]
外卖小哥住地下室,200平农村房空置,3亿人消费缺口谁来填?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 11:06
Core Insights - The article highlights the structural mismatch in China's real estate and consumption patterns, where migrant workers own homes in rural areas but live in inadequate conditions in cities, indicating a broader economic issue [1][5] - Consumption in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, with only 45% of GDP attributed to consumer spending, suggesting a lack of confidence among consumers due to financial pressures [1][5] Group 1: Structural Issues - Many migrant workers own homes in rural areas but live in cramped conditions in cities, reflecting a disconnect between housing availability and affordability [1][2] - The current economic slowdown has revealed that the issue is not a lack of money but rather the misallocation of spending, particularly in real estate [1][5] - The disparity in consumption levels between urban and rural populations is exacerbated by high living costs and inadequate social security, leading to a reluctance to spend [1][4] Group 2: Proposed Solutions - The first proposed solution is the construction of affordable housing for migrant workers in cities, which could stimulate consumption in home furnishings and appliances [4] - Increasing pensions for rural elderly individuals is suggested as a way to boost their spending power, potentially adding over 80 billion yuan to annual consumption and increasing GDP by 0.5% [4] - The article advocates for the opening of urban-rural land transactions to facilitate economic mobility and investment opportunities, promoting a second wave of urbanization [4][5] Group 3: Implementation Challenges - The article notes that while the proposed reforms are necessary, they face significant implementation challenges, such as funding for pensions and land allocation for affordable housing [4][5] - There is a concern that simply building houses without adequate infrastructure, such as schools and hospitals, will not resolve the underlying issues faced by migrant workers [4][5] - The need for a comprehensive approach to address both housing and social services is emphasized, as financial security is crucial for encouraging consumer spending [5]
部分国产芯片闲置率高达80%?智算中心建设“点刹”背后
3 6 Ke· 2025-04-28 10:25
Core Insights - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology has intensified global strategic competition, with intelligent computing centers becoming a new infrastructure in tech competition [1] - Investment in intelligent computing centers in China has surged from hundreds of billions to trillions, with nearly 150 operational projects and close to 400 under construction or planning as of November 2024 [2][3] Investment Trends - As of August 2024, the total number of intelligent computing center projects in China exceeded 300, with a computing power scale surpassing 500,000 PFlops, and over 50 new projects launched in 2024 alone [3] - The total investment in 128 disclosed projects reached over 430 billion yuan, but only 16 projects are in operation or trial phases, indicating a significant gap between planned and actual deployment [3][9] Structural Issues - The market is experiencing a "structural mismatch" rather than an outright surplus of computing power, with significant demand growth in AI inference driving the need for more efficient resource allocation [5][9] - Some intelligent computing centers report utilization rates as low as 10-15%, with certain centers having GPU utilization below 30%, leading to concerns about resource wastage [9][11] Management and Operational Challenges - The supply chain uncertainties, particularly regarding NVIDIA chips, pose challenges for intelligent computing centers, prompting a shift towards domestic chip manufacturers providing comprehensive solutions [12][14] - The industry is moving towards "refined management," with traditional leasing models becoming less profitable, necessitating mergers and resource reallocation to enhance efficiency [14][15] Future Outlook - The ongoing demand for AI inference and the acceleration of domestic chip development are critical for the industry's future, with a focus on building a sustainable computing power system [14] - The integration of AI technology with industry applications requires a skilled workforce, emphasizing the need for professionals who understand both AI and industry-specific needs [14]