高初蕾 华创证券分析师: 基药政策专家石老师: 信号不通畅。 好的，各位领导，大家晚上好。我是华创医药的中药研究员高出磊，欢迎大家来参加由我 们团队主办的基药目录管理办法专家解读会那首先也感谢大家这么晚还来参加我们的专家 会。那今天傍晚我们看到卫健委联合 10 个部委共同印发了基药目录管理办法。非常的振 奋人心，确实是大家期盼了 4~5 年的政策终于有了一个明确的启动和催化。那今天我们团 队也是第一时间邀请专家来为我们做一个解读。因为今天时间比较晚，我希望咱们的专家 会还是尽量能够高效简短，希望各位领导如果有问题，也能尽早的提问，私信或者线上留 言都可以。 那首先我们先请专家就此次基药目录管理办法的这个文件上面表述的一些变化，未来政策 推进的节点，哪些品种进入的概率更大，以及后续执行后落地的配套政策等等，这些大家 比较关心的核心问题，来给大家做一个分享。那在专家分享之前，我也想提醒各位投资者 因为政策的方向比较难去预测，那我们希望专家的观点也仅供各位领导来参考。具体以最 后卫健委出台的目录为准，那我们也欢迎专家的时间，有请您来给我们做一个介绍。 基药政策专家石老师: 是。在线的各位老师好，今天是这个，政策一出 ...

Summary of Kang En Bei's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kang En Bei - **Industry**: Pharmaceutical Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: 4.976 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.72% [2][3] - **Total Profit**: 697 million CNY, up 7.57% year-on-year [2][3] - **Net Profit**: Increased by 12.65%, with a non-recurring net profit growth of 1.6% [2][3] - **Contribution from Jiahe Bio**: 79 million CNY in floating profit, compared to 25.87 million CNY in the same period last year, significantly impacting profit growth [2][3] Product Performance - **Chronic Diarrhea Series**: Over 25% year-on-year growth, attributed to capturing market opportunities from Norovirus, strengthening partnerships with chain pharmacies, stabilizing prices, and enhancing visibility [2][7] - **Jin Di Series**: Declined by 11.6% due to high base effects and a mild flu season [2][6] - **Jin Kang Su Li**: Experienced a 66% decline due to losing bids in centralized procurement [2][6] - **Respiratory Medications**: Some products also saw a decline [2][6] Strategic Goals - **2030 Revenue Target**: 11 billion CNY, with 2 billion CNY from external acquisitions and 9 billion CNY from organic growth [2][8] - **Net Profit Target**: 1 billion CNY, with 200 million CNY from acquisitions and 800 million CNY from organic growth [2][8] - **Management Reforms**: Streamlining management departments from 16 to 11, merging health and sales companies, optimizing distributor structures, and introducing a new executive team to enhance operational quality [2][10] Future Plans - **2026 Revenue Target**: 6.8 billion CNY, with plans to develop multiple brands achieving revenue scales of 500 million to 1 billion CNY [2][11] - **Core Strategy**: Entering the essential drug directory, focusing on products like Execution Dan, Jin Ai Kang, and Long Jin Tong Ling, with expected sales growth rates of over 10% [2][12][13] Challenges and Market Dynamics - **Challenges**: Facing pressure from centralized procurement leading to price reductions, and competition in the pharmaceutical industry [2][6][16] - **Market Opportunities**: Aging population creating unmet medical needs, and the clinical value of traditional Chinese medicine being validated through evidence-based medicine [2][16] R&D and M&A Strategy - **R&D Investment**: Maintaining a 4% investment in R&D, viewing the R&D team as a cost center to foster innovation [2][17] - **M&A Goals**: Aiming for 2 billion CNY in acquisitions by 2030, with ongoing discussions for multiple targets, including overseas projects [2][17] Conclusion - **Overall Performance**: Despite challenges, Kang En Bei has shown resilience with positive growth metrics and a clear strategic direction towards 2030 [2][19] - **Investor Focus**: The company encourages investors to monitor its growth trajectory and strategic initiatives [2][19]

Market Overview - The A-share index showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.19%, while the North China 50 index fell by 3.79% during the week of November 3-7, 2025 [7][5] - The average daily trading volume in the market was 2.01 trillion yuan, down from 2.32 trillion yuan the previous week, indicating a contraction in trading activity [5][7] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector's Q3 performance revealed a divergence among sub-sectors, with the mother and baby segment showing a significant year-on-year net profit increase of 69.48%, while the supermarket and department store segments faced severe declines in net profit, with decreases of 31.23% and 229.10% respectively [5][19] - The overall Q3 revenue growth for major consumer segments was as follows: home appliances +1.66%, textiles -1.31%, food and beverages -6.57%, and consumer services +3.51% [18][19] Health Sector - The new essential drug directory is expected to be implemented, which may benefit traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) products. The current essential drug directory includes 417 chemical drugs and 268 TCMs, with TCM accounting for 39.1% [30][31] - The CXO (Contract Research Organization) segment within the biopharmaceutical industry showed notable revenue growth, while other segments faced challenges due to policy changes and market conditions [27][29] Hard Technology - The global demand for AI continues to drive high demand in the wafer foundry sector, with TSMC reporting a Q3 revenue growth where 3nm and 5nm process revenues accounted for 37% and 14% of total revenue respectively [5][10] - Domestic wafer foundries also experienced significant revenue growth in Q3, reflecting strong domestic demand driven by local IC design companies and the return of some orders to domestic manufacturers [5][11] High-end Manufacturing - The high-end manufacturing sector showed a steady recovery in Q3, with traditional equipment manufacturing experiencing a rebound in demand, particularly in the metal cutting machine tool industry [5][12] - Companies like XPeng Motors are diversifying into humanoid robotics, indicating a trend towards intelligent manufacturing and collaborative innovation within the industry [5][14]

Summary of Guizhou Sanli Conference Call Company Overview - Guizhou Sanli primarily operates in the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on both hospital and over-the-counter (OTC) sales channels. The sales distribution is approximately 60%-70% from hospital channels and 30%-40% from OTC channels [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Channels**: The OTC channel is currently under pressure from retail pharmacies, which may limit short-term revenue growth. However, it holds significant long-term potential as a growth driver [2][3]. - **Acquisitions**: The company has expanded its product matrix through acquisitions of subsidiaries such as Dechangxiang, Haosite, Hanfang Pharmaceutical, and Wudi Pharmaceutical. This strategy enhances market competitiveness and covers various therapeutic areas including gynecology and orthopedic conditions [2][5][10]. - **Core Product Performance**: The core product, Kaihoujian, is crucial for revenue, with significant contributions from both children’s and adult formulations. The company aims to expand its presence in the OTC market while also pushing for inclusion in the essential drug list to boost hospital sales [4][7][8]. - **Financial Performance of Subsidiaries**: - Hanfang Pharmaceutical generates approximately 300-400 million yuan in revenue with a net profit of 40-60 million yuan. - Dechangxiang has around 100 million yuan in revenue and a net profit of about 15 million yuan. - Wudi Pharmaceutical focuses on orthopedic products, with revenue between 20-30 million yuan and a net profit of 3-5 million yuan [2][9][10]. Future Growth Drivers - The future growth of Kaihoujian is expected to come from: - Expanding the children’s formulation in the OTC market. - Enhancing the adult formulation's coverage across all sales channels. - Successful inclusion in the essential drug list, which would significantly increase hospital market penetration [7][8]. Key Factors for Future Development - The ability of Kaihoujian to be included in the essential drug list is critical for increasing market share. - The development of the OTC channel, including coverage in chain pharmacies and grassroots medical institutions, is essential. - Effective integration of newly acquired subsidiaries to improve overall productivity and profitability is vital for long-term success [8][11]. Challenges - Guizhou Sanli faces significant challenges from pressure in the OTC retail sector, which is expected to limit short-term revenue and profit growth. The company must closely monitor the impact of essential drug list adjustments and the integration of acquired subsidiaries to achieve expected returns [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the biopharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The market for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in musculoskeletal diseases is expected to grow significantly due to an aging population and increasing prevalence of related conditions [2][18] - The oral medication segment presents structural opportunities, while external patches are anticipated to continue expanding [3][32] Summary by Sections 1. Demand Growth in Musculoskeletal TCM Market - The aging population in China reached 202 million people aged 65 and above in 2023, leading to a rise in musculoskeletal disorders [2][18] - The penetration rate of musculoskeletal pain among the population aged 56 and above is 60.8%, while it is 42.2% among those aged 35 and below, indicating a younger demographic is increasingly affected [2][23] - The global pain management drug market is projected to reach $110.4 billion by 2030, with significant growth potential in China compared to markets in the US and Japan [2][28] 2. Structural Opportunities in Oral Medications - The oral TCM market is stable, with the top 10 products each generating sales below 1 billion yuan, indicating a lack of large-scale products [3][47] - Three innovative TCM products in the musculoskeletal field are expected to be approved and enter the national medical insurance directory from 2020 to 2024, which may lead to rapid market growth [3][53] - The basic drug policy aims to increase the usage of essential medicines, providing a competitive advantage for unique insurance products [3][69] 3. Expansion of External Patches - Compared to mature markets like Japan and South Korea, China's external patch market has significant room for growth, with external patches likely to gradually replace oral medications [3][30] - The concentration of external patches in public medical institutions and retail pharmacies is high, allowing leading companies to increase their market share [3][30] - Price increases are expected to continue driving growth in the external patch industry [3][32] 4. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, Panlong Pharmaceutical, Lingrui Pharmaceutical, and Qizheng Tibetan Medicine, which have significant advantages in musculoskeletal TCM products [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **pharmaceutical industry** in China, focusing on upcoming policies and their implications for innovation and market dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Introduction of Class B Directory**: The anticipated launch of the Class B directory or commercial insurance directory in the second half of 2025 is expected to shift the focus of national policy towards efficiency, benefiting innovative drug pricing and commercial insurance development [1][3][5]. 2. **Optimized National Procurement Policy**: An optimized national procurement policy is being formulated, with expectations that the 11th batch of procurement rules will be more favorable than the 10th batch, indicating a positive trend in domestic pharmaceutical policies [1][6][7]. 3. **Impact of Class B Directory on Innovative Drugs**: The Class B directory is crucial for the innovative drug sector as it allows for higher demand satisfaction through commercial insurance, facilitating market access and pricing for innovative drugs [1][5]. 4. **Medicare Negotiations**: Ongoing Medicare negotiations for 2025 are expected to follow similar timelines as previous years, with some drug prices potentially exceeding expectations, particularly for major products [1][9]. 5. **Support for Innovative Drug Development**: The government is implementing various policies to support innovative drug development, including reducing review and approval times to 30 days, reflecting an increased focus on the pharmaceutical industry [1][10]. 6. **International Market Expansion**: Domestic companies are increasingly supported in their international market expansion efforts, with policies aimed at promoting the export of high-quality products to regions like Southeast Asia and Europe [1][11][12]. Additional Important Content 1. **Changes in Basic Drug Directory Importance**: The importance of the basic drug directory is diminishing due to annual updates in the Medicare directory and the existence of procurement varieties, making the medical alliance drug directory more significant for hospital access [1][4][13]. 2. **DRG Policy Impact**: The DRG policy, which was fully implemented in 2024, has had a significant impact on the pharmaceutical industry, with adjustments expected to make its effects more manageable by 2025 [1][14][15]. 3. **Regional Variations in Healthcare Reform**: The implementation of the Sanming healthcare reform varies by region, with larger cities adapting the model to fit local needs rather than following it strictly [1][16]. 4. **Drug Lifecycle Pricing Management**: There are expectations for progress in drug lifecycle pricing management policies, with potential actions anticipated in the second half of 2025 [1][17]. 5. **Tariff Implications on Exports and Imports**: Current tariff discussions, particularly regarding the U.S., may not significantly impact China's pharmaceutical exports, while imports remain unaffected due to low tariffs [1][18][19].