2025 年 12 月 14 日 策略研究 新一轮政策部署护航，A 股跨年行情可期 ——策略周专题（2025 年 12 月第 2 期） 要点 本周 A 股主要宽基指数大多收涨 本周 A 股主要宽基指数大多收涨。从主要宽基指数来看，本周 A 股主要宽基指 数大多收涨，仅上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300 下跌，其余指数均收涨，其中， 创业板指、科创 50、中证 500 涨幅居前。从估值来看，当前科创 50、万得全 A 等指数估值分位数相对偏高，截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，其 2010 年以来 PE(TTM) 分位数均高于 80%。 本周中盘成长风格占优，申万一级行业走势分化，通信、国防军工等行业涨幅靠 前，而煤炭、石油石化等行业跌幅居前。从市场风格来看，本周主要风格指数分 化，中盘成长、小盘成长涨幅靠前，中盘价值、小盘价值跌幅居前。分行业来看， 本周申万一级行业走势分化，通信、国防军工、电子、机械设备涨幅居前，煤炭、 石油石化、钢铁、房地产跌幅居前。 本周重要事件回顾 政策方面，中央经济工作会议提出"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，明确延续"更 加积极的财政政策"和"适度宽松的货币政策"；此外，两部门部 ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a weak adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark, closing at 3990.49, down 0.97% [4][7] - The market saw a decrease in trading volume, with total market turnover dropping to 1.98 trillion, a 4.1% decline from the previous day [7][9] - Defensive sectors outperformed, while technology growth sectors faced significant declines, with electronic, communication, and computer sectors down by 2.88%, 2.45%, and 2.32% respectively [7][9] Bond Market - The bond market remained stable, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.03% to 116.160, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts held steady [10] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 212.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a net liquidity injection of 71.1 billion yuan [10] Commodity Market - Agricultural product prices increased, with notable rises in soybean and apple prices, up 2.26% and 2.25% respectively [10] - Precious metals experienced slight declines, with gold and silver futures down by 0.29% and 0.04%, respectively, amid changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation strategy focusing on dividend stocks, micro-cap stocks, and technology sectors, while closely monitoring external environmental changes [9][13] - The bond market is expected to remain loose in the short term, presenting potential allocation opportunities as the stock-bond dynamic adjusts [13] Key Investment Themes - The report highlights several key investment themes, including artificial intelligence, nuclear fusion, domestic chip production, and quantum technology, emphasizing the importance of technological breakthroughs and policy support [15] - The report also notes the potential for gold and silver investments to gain value following further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside the impact of geopolitical risks [15]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a pullback this week, influenced by declining risk appetite and increased uncertainty in US-China relations, with the STAR 50 index dropping 6.2% and the Shanghai 50 index only 0.2% [1][11][20] - The overall market is still in a bull market phase, but may enter a wide fluctuation stage in the short term, with the current maximum drawdown being 4.01%, which is within historical levels [3][39][41] - Short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention should be on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors [4][43][46] Group 2 - The market style this week favored value stocks, with large-cap value stocks increasing by 2.1%, while mid-cap growth stocks decreased by 5.8% [15][18] - In terms of industry performance, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors performed relatively well, with respective increases of 4.9%, 4.2%, and 0.9% [15][70] - The TMT sector is expected to become a mid-term focus due to various catalysts, including the ongoing development of AI and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [46][48]

Group 1 - The China Securities Bank Index (399986) has shown a strong increase of 1.82%, with constituent stocks such as Chongqing Bank (601963) rising by 4.74%, Jiangsu Bank (600919) by 3.30%, and Everbright Bank (601818) by 2.69% [1] - The Bank ETF Index (512730) has also risen by 1.61%, marking a three-day consecutive increase, driven by heightened demand for defensive sectors due to tariff uncertainties [1] - China Galaxy Securities indicates that the increased uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to greater volatility in global asset prices, creating opportunities for defensive allocations in the banking sector [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Bank Index (399986) include China Merchants Bank (600036), Industrial Bank (601166), and Agricultural Bank of China (601288), collectively accounting for 64.6% of the index [2]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced a collective decline on September 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.25%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.25. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 25,443 billion [1] - High dividend stocks rose against the trend, with bank stocks continuing to strengthen, and several bank stocks hitting historical highs. The Bank ETF (512800) saw an increase of nearly 1% [1] - In contrast, the optical module sector and other computing hardware experienced significant declines, with the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) dropping 9.28% [1] ETF Performance - The Bank ETF (512800) rose by 0.96%, while the S&P Dividend ETF (562060) and Value ETF (510030) saw smaller gains of 0.34% and 0.28%, respectively [2] - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) recorded a significant drop of 9.28%, with a trading volume exceeding 2.3 billion [3][5] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) also fell by 1.52%, but showed strong buying interest despite the decline, with a trading volume of over 700 million [5][8] Sector Analysis - The AI sector faced severe volatility, particularly in the optical module segment, which saw major players like "Yizhongtian" drop over 13% [3][5] - The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase after rapid rotations, with a focus on balancing investments between technology growth and defensive sectors [2][3] - The electronic and power equipment sectors are highlighted for their potential, with the storage industry showing signs of demand recovery and policy support for the electronic information manufacturing sector [18][20] Investment Insights - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) is recommended for capturing opportunities in the AI computing space, with a focus on optical module leaders [6] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) is seen as a key player in the AI narrative, benefiting from the revaluation of tech stocks and global fund allocation [10][11] - The dual innovation leader ETF (588330) has shown a significant increase of 59% since its low point in April, outperforming other indices [14][15] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may maintain an upward trend in September, driven by the accumulation of profit effects and continued inflow of incremental funds [2][3] - The AI sector is expected to remain a strong investment focus, particularly in the context of improving fundamentals and potential performance recovery in the optical module industry [5][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent panic in A-shares is seen as an opportunity for smart money to hunt for bargains amidst the turmoil in the US stock market, particularly following disappointing US non-farm payroll data [1][3]. - The US stock market's decline was triggered by a significant drop in July's job additions, which were only 73,000, less than half of expectations, leading to a 75% market expectation for a rate cut in September [3]. - The Chinese central bank has indicated a continuation of monetary easing, providing a buffer for A-shares despite external pressures [3]. Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that the Shanghai Composite Index tested the 20-day moving average at 3,550 points, with a critical gap at 3,542 points that needs to be maintained for a potential rebound towards 3,674 points [4]. - Volume is highlighted as a crucial indicator, with a baseline of 1.5 trillion yuan and a target of 1.8 trillion yuan for a bullish signal [5]. - There is a notable shift in capital flows, with significant activity in the CSI 300 ETF, suggesting either institutional reallocation or state intervention, while retail investors are advised against panic selling [6]. Group 3 - The technology sector is experiencing a divergence, with institutional investors aggressively buying computing hardware, while speculative funds are offloading positions in robotics and other sectors [7]. - Retail investors are advised to adhere to three key rules: avoid impulsive trading in the first half hour, exit positions if stocks fall below the 20-day moving average for three consecutive days, and focus on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations [8]. - Key data points include the support level at 3,542 points for the Shanghai Composite Index, with specific strategies for investing in hard technology and defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and electricity [9].

Key Points - The article discusses the recovery of equity market sentiment and the fluctuating bond market in May 2025, influenced by the US-China tariff agreement and monetary policy adjustments [2][5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of balancing growth and defensive strategies in investment portfolios, highlighting the need to capture structural opportunities while being cautious of external disturbances and domestic economic data fluctuations [2][14] - The performance of various fund styles is analyzed, showing that value and balanced styles outperformed growth styles in May 2025, with significant movements in sector-specific funds, particularly in healthcare and military themes [9][10][11] Equity Market Overview - In May 2025, the equity market experienced a "rise, fall, and stabilization" pattern, with major indices showing gains due to supportive monetary policies and the US-China tariff agreement [6][7] - The overall trading volume decreased, indicating a lower risk appetite among investors, with small-cap stocks seeing increased activity [11][12] Bond Market Overview - The bond market exhibited a narrow range of fluctuations, with government bond issuance and tariff negotiations impacting interest rates [8][18] - The yields on 1-year, 3-year, and 10-year government bonds changed slightly, reflecting the market's response to monetary policy and external factors [18][26] Fund Performance Review - The article reviews the performance of public funds, noting that all major equity fund indices recorded gains, with the Wande Stock Index and Wande Ordinary Stock Index leading with increases of 1.59% and 1.23%, respectively [7][8] - The article highlights the performance of thematic funds, particularly in healthcare and military sectors, which saw significant gains due to market dynamics and geopolitical events [10][11] Fund Strategy Insights - The article outlines strategies for equity and fixed-income fund allocations, suggesting a focus on growth and defensive sectors while maintaining a balanced approach [2][3][14] - It discusses the construction of various fund indices, including low, medium, and high volatility fixed-income funds, aimed at providing stable returns while managing risks [19][28][30]