Group 1: Coal Industry - Domestic coal production has increased to an average of 4 million tons per day, with Ordos region's coal operating rate at 78% and Yulin region at 46%, indicating a stable supply [1] - Coal prices have started to decline from high levels, while demand from power plants has shown a gradual increase, with current port inventories rising to over 26 million tons [1][2] - The operating rate of coal-based urea production is at 87.53%, up 4 percentage points from last month, with daily production at 19.8 million tons, indicating a further loosening of domestic supply [2] Group 2: Urea Market - Urea prices are holding steady at 1660-1700 RMB per ton, with cash flow profits for coal-based urea around 200 RMB per ton for fixed bed units and 280 RMB per ton for gas flow bed units [2] - Urea inventory levels are high, with total inventory at 1.2905 million tons, down 73,400 tons from the previous week, but still at historically high levels [5] - The demand for urea is supported by increased procurement activities in Northeast China and the upcoming spring fertilizer production in Central China, which may provide some price support [4][7] Group 3: Compound Fertilizer - The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is steadily increasing, with Northeast regions actively procuring fertilizers, which strengthens the demand for urea [4] - The fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons has been issued, but the impact on the domestic market is expected to be short-lived as the focus returns to domestic fundamentals [4] - As of the end of November, overall inventory levels for compound fertilizers are expected to reach around 30%, indicating a stable supply situation [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week's view was that high prices were being resisted and spot price increases were losing momentum; this week's view is that downstream demand is slowing and urea prices are correcting [3] - Market sentiment has cooled as factory prices have been continuously raised, with mainstream urea spot factory quotes in major regions being weakly stable and trading lackluster [3] - Gas - fired plants are starting to undergo maintenance, with a daily output of around 1.95 million tons. The impact of the Indian tender on domestic exports is small [3] - In the short term, domestic demand is stable, agricultural demand is rigid, compound fertilizer production is rising, and urea prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, overall demand will be weak, and the urea fundamentals remain loose [3] - Trading strategies: for single - sided trading, short at high prices but do not chase short positions; for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: High prices are being resisted, downstream demand is slowing, and the market sentiment is cooling. Gas - fired plants are under maintenance, and the Indian tender has little impact on domestic exports. Short - term demand is stable, while medium - term demand is weak [3] - **Trading Strategies**: Single - sided trading, short at high prices without chasing short positions; arbitrage and over - the - counter trading, wait - and - see [3] 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply**: In the 48th week of 2025 (20251127 - 1203), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 86.70%, a 0.50% week - on - week decrease; that of gas - based urea was 65.12%, a 6.65% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 85.27%, a 1.40% week - on - week increase [4] - **Demand**: In the 47th week of 2025 (20251114 - 1120), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.20%, a 4.72 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 34.61%, a 4.29 - percentage - point week - on - week increase. As of December 5, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer producers in Linyi, Shandong was 1210 tons, a 18.24% week - on - week decrease. This week (20251128 - 20251205), the urea arrival volume in Northeast China was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons from the previous week. As of December 3, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.35 days, a 10.53% week - on - week increase [4] - **Inventory**: On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a 5.38% week - on - week decrease. As of December 4, 2025 (the 49th week), the port sample inventory was 105,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton week - on - week increase [4] - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is weak, the decline of Yulin pulverized coal has widened, the urea spot price has rebounded, and the urea production profit has expanded. The fixed - bed production breaks even, the water - coal - slurry production has a profit of 70 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production has a profit of 300 yuan/ton. The basis has converged to around 0 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 50 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data (Directory Items 7 - 20) - No detailed data content provided for these items, so no specific summary can be made.

Report Title - Urea Industry Chain Weekly Report [1][2] Report Date - June 29, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The loosening of export policies provides short - term support, but the high domestic inventory, scattered agricultural top - dressing, and weak industrial demand mean that the loose supply - demand situation has not been substantially reversed [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental and Viewpoints - Market rumors suggest that China's urea export quota has increased by about 2 million tons. The relief of international supply shortages and the boost from Indian tenders support domestic prices [4] - Shanxi enterprises plan to conduct maintenance, reducing the national daily production to 197,400 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease, and inventory has decreased by 6.9% week - on - week, alleviating pressure [4] - The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has dropped to a low level. The end of summer fertilizer has led to a decline in industrial demand, and end - users have strong resistance to high prices [4] - International crude oil prices have dropped by 7.2% in a week, breaking through $70 per barrel. The sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has weakened, and the weak operation of coal has weakened cost support [4] Urea Fundamental Data - Multiple data charts are presented, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, urea futures main contract positions and trading volume, urea warehouse receipt quantity and effective forecasts, market prices and basis of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, price differences between large and small - sized urea, seasonal price differences between different urea contracts, production costs and profits of different urea production methods, production enterprise's pending order days, capacity utilization rates of urea and compound fertilizer, compound fertilizer inventory, production costs and profits of compound fertilizer in Shandong, FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, spot prices of thermal coal, and thermal coal port inventory [7][10][17][28][38][43][47]