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未名宏观|2025年6月进、出口点评——日内瓦会谈效果显现,中美贸易降幅明显收窄
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-07-23 09:36
Core Insights - The article highlights a significant narrowing of the trade deficit between China and the U.S. following the Geneva high-level economic talks, with a notable increase in export growth rates and a slight uptick in import growth due to base effects [1][2][3]. Export Analysis - In June 2025, China's total exports reached $325.18 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, which is a 1.0 percentage point rise from the previous month [1][3]. - The decline in exports to the U.S. has significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.13%, an improvement of 18.39 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. - Exports to ASEAN countries continued to grow rapidly, while traditional export categories saw declines, with integrated circuits and automobiles showing strong growth [5][6]. Import Analysis - China's total imports in June 2025 amounted to $210.41 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, reversing from negative growth due to base effects [2][6]. - Imports from the U.S. decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, but this decline was 2.6 percentage points less than the previous month [2][6]. - The import growth rates from Japan and ASEAN were positive, while imports from traditional bulk commodities continued to face challenges [7]. Future Outlook - The external environment for trade is expected to remain complex and volatile, with potential risks and opportunities for export growth in 2025 [8]. - Domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy are anticipated to support a gradual recovery in import growth, although challenges from the real estate market and global trade barriers may persist [8].
前5月进出口同比增长2.5%—— 我国货物贸易延续平稳增长态势
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-09 21:44
Core Insights - China's total goods trade import and export value reached 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] - Exports amounted to 10.67 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, declining by 3.8% [1] - The growth rate of imports and exports accelerated significantly after high-level Sino-U.S. economic talks [1] Trade Performance - General trade and processing trade both saw year-on-year growth in the first five months, with general trade at 11.51 trillion yuan (up 0.8%) and processing trade at 3.21 trillion yuan (up 6.2%) [1] - Trade with African countries reached a record high for the same period, totaling 963.21 billion yuan, an increase of 12.4% [1] - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner with a total trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, growing by 9.1% [1] Private and Foreign Investment - Private enterprises' import and export value reached 10.25 trillion yuan, a growth of 7%, accounting for 57.1% of China's total foreign trade [2] - Foreign-funded enterprises also showed stable growth, with a total import and export value of 5.21 trillion yuan, up 2.3% [2] - The number of foreign-funded enterprises with import and export performance exceeded 73,000, the highest in five years [2] Export Structure - The export of equipment manufacturing products was robust, totaling 6.22 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, and accounting for 58.3% of total exports [2] - Notable growth in specific sectors included electric vehicles (up 19%), engineering machinery (up 10.7%), and industrial robots (up 55.4%) [2] Regional Trade Dynamics - The central region's import and export value reached 1.5 trillion yuan, growing by 11.1%, with exports increasing by 16.9% [3] - The central region's growth rate outpaced the national average by 8.6 percentage points, reflecting the potential of the region under the "Rise of Central China" strategy [3] - The overall resilience of China's goods trade has improved, with growth accelerating from 1.3% in the first quarter to 2.5% currently [3]