国家统计局数据显示，初步核算，2018年上半年我国国内生产总值418961亿元，按可比价格计算，同比 增长6.8%。分季度看，一季度同比增长6.8%，二季度增长6.7%。 贾康认为，我国宏观经济运行如果从平台来看，从2015年下半年开始的，到现在已经三年之久，12个季 度在平台状运行，如果不出大的意外，稍微往下调整以后，仍然有望延续这种由新入常的平台运行状 态。 未来宏观经济发展的重点何在？贾康认为，进一步扩大内需、中国可选择的聪明投资或有效投资，有巨 大潜能空间，要坚定不移地全面扩大开放等方面是发展要点。 每经记者｜张钟尹 每经编辑｜毕陆名 7月21日，华夏新供给经济学研究院、中国新供给经济学50人论坛在青岛举行以"新供给、新金融：助推 高质量发展"为主题的2018年第二季度宏观经济形势分析会。 华夏新供给经济学研究院首席经济学家贾康在分析会上表示，下半年和今后的不确定性主要来自外部的 冲击和影响，对连锁反应是值得特别关注的，十分敏感的股市和汇市，可能会比实际上应该客观估量的 影响表现为升级状态。 在指出这些不确定性的同时，贾康也十分强调确定性。他强调，从全局和长远来看，这些不确定性旁 边，的确还有确定性。 ...

进入新时代，中国经济航船闯激流险滩、战艰难险阻，向着一个又一个胜利笃定前行。 "党中央集中统一领导是做好经济工作的根本保证，在关键时刻、重要节点，党中央及时研判形势、作 出决策部署，确保我国经济航船乘风破浪、行稳致远。" 关键时刻必有关键抉择。 彼时，中国经济增速从两位数滑落至8%以下，与此同时发展粗放、环境污染问题逐步显现，"速度焦 虑""转型迷茫"互相交织。中国经济将向何处去？未来发展之路怎么走？一时间众说纷纭。 "我国发展仍处于重要战略机遇期，我们要增强信心，从当前我国经济发展的阶段性特征出发，适应新 常态，保持战略上的平常心态。" 那次河南之行，习近平总书记首次公开提出"新常态"概念，深刻指明我国当前和今后一个时期经济发展 的大逻辑。 "速度再快一点，非不能也，而不为也""不能简单以生产总值增长率论英雄""经济发展动力正从传统增 长点转向新的增长点"…… 习近平总书记的一系列重要论述，直指长期存在的片面政绩观，指引行至关键阶段的中国经济校准航 向，牢牢掌握新时代发展的历史主动。 新时代以来的这些年极不寻常、极不平凡，改革发展稳定任务之艰巨世所罕见、史所罕见。一路风雨兼 程，一路劈波斩浪，我们的信心更强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of key decisions made by the Chinese leadership, particularly under Xi Jinping's economic thought, in navigating the complexities of the modern economy and ensuring sustainable growth. Group 1: Economic Strategy and Development - The Chinese economy has faced unprecedented challenges, yet it continues to progress towards modernization, driven by Xi Jinping's economic thought [1][5][8] - The concept of "new normal" was introduced to guide economic development amidst slowing growth and environmental concerns, emphasizing a shift from traditional growth drivers to new ones [3][4] - The focus on supply-side structural reforms and the establishment of a dual circulation economic model highlights the strategic shift towards domestic demand and innovation [5][9] Group 2: Policy Responses and Economic Stability - In response to economic pressures, the Chinese government has implemented a series of macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and measures to stabilize the real estate and stock markets [7][17] - The government's proactive approach during critical times has been recognized as a significant milestone in macroeconomic management, ensuring the achievement of annual economic goals [7][8] - The introduction of new policy financial tools aims to enhance support for the real economy and stimulate effective investment [17][21] Group 3: Innovation and Modernization - Emphasis on technological and industrial innovation is seen as essential for developing new productive forces and achieving high-quality growth [19][20] - The commitment to green development and addressing climate change reflects a strategic focus on sustainable economic practices [11][22] - The ongoing reforms in various sectors, including the establishment of free trade zones and market access improvements, are designed to enhance China's economic openness and competitiveness [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is considered "extremely expensive," but a deeper analysis suggests that high valuations may be justified due to the inherent qualities of current index constituents [1][4]. Group 1: Valuation Indicators - 19 out of 20 internal indicators tracked by Bank of America show that the S&P 500 index is at statistically high trading prices, with 4 indicators reaching historical highs [1]. - The S&P 500's 12-month forward P/E ratio has reached a high of 22.9, a level only surpassed during the dot-com bubble and the summer of 2020 [2]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - Current index constituents exhibit lower financial leverage, reduced earnings volatility, higher efficiency, and more stable profit margins compared to previous decades, supporting the high valuations [1]. - The S&P 500 index has surged over 30% since its low on April 8, and has not seen a decline of more than 2% for 108 consecutive trading days, marking the longest such period since July 2024 [1]. Group 3: Economic Context - Despite risks from U.S. tariff policies and their potential impact on economic growth and inflation, the quality of current index constituents may lead to better performance in a low-interest-rate environment [4]. - The likelihood of a "tail event" occurring by 2026 is considered higher than the chances of stagflation or recession, given the current fiscal policy landscape and the Fed's actions [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience and strength of China's economy, with a GDP of 66,053.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [2] - In 2014, China's economic growth rate dropped to 7.4%, the lowest in 24 years, leading to the concept of "new normal" to clarify the economic phase [3] - The focus on innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and shared development signifies a profound transformation in China's overall development strategy [4] Group 2 - Since 2025, efforts have been made to develop new productive forces, explore new fields, and strengthen the foundation of the real economy, all under the guidance of leadership aimed at high-quality economic development [5]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [1] - The concept of "new normal" was introduced by Xi Jinping in 2014 to clarify the economic phase China was in, following a growth rate of 7.4%, the lowest in 24 years [1] - Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and shared development as key elements for profound changes in China's overall development [1] - The new development pattern proposed by Xi Jinping focuses on domestic circulation as the mainstay, with mutual promotion of domestic and international circulation, leading to high-quality economic development [1] - Since 2025, efforts have been made to develop new productive forces, explore new fields, and strengthen the foundation of the real economy, while promoting characteristic industries and advancing the construction of a unified national market [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant narrowing of the trade deficit between China and the U.S. following the Geneva high-level economic talks, with a notable increase in export growth rates and a slight uptick in import growth due to base effects [1][2][3]. Export Analysis - In June 2025, China's total exports reached $325.18 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, which is a 1.0 percentage point rise from the previous month [1][3]. - The decline in exports to the U.S. has significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.13%, an improvement of 18.39 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. - Exports to ASEAN countries continued to grow rapidly, while traditional export categories saw declines, with integrated circuits and automobiles showing strong growth [5][6]. Import Analysis - China's total imports in June 2025 amounted to $210.41 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, reversing from negative growth due to base effects [2][6]. - Imports from the U.S. decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, but this decline was 2.6 percentage points less than the previous month [2][6]. - The import growth rates from Japan and ASEAN were positive, while imports from traditional bulk commodities continued to face challenges [7]. Future Outlook - The external environment for trade is expected to remain complex and volatile, with potential risks and opportunities for export growth in 2025 [8]. - Domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy are anticipated to support a gradual recovery in import growth, although challenges from the real estate market and global trade barriers may persist [8].

Group 1 - Huawei has become a model for large company management, but faced internal strife in 1998, leading to a significant investment in consulting services from IBM costing 2 billion [1][25] - McKinsey has laid off over 10% of its workforce in the past 18 months, reducing its employee count from 45,100 to approximately 40,000 [1][2] - The consulting industry is experiencing a downturn, with McKinsey's layoffs marking one of the largest in its history, reversing previous expansion plans [2][3] Group 2 - McKinsey's layoffs included 1,400 employees in March 2023, representing 3% of its workforce, and new hires' salaries have been frozen [5][6] - The company has faced legal challenges, agreeing to pay $650 million and $122 million in fines related to opioid marketing and bribery allegations [6] - McKinsey's revenue reached $16 billion in 2023, but it did not disclose revenue figures for 2024, marking a significant change in its reporting practices [6] Group 3 - The consulting industry is undergoing significant changes, with predictions of disruption affecting traditional business models [8][28] - The economic downturn in 2008 led to reduced consulting budgets, and clients are now more focused on short-term, targeted projects rather than large-scale consulting engagements [28][30] - The average fee rates for consulting projects have decreased by 15%-20% from 2015 to 2020, impacting profit margins and consultant salaries [29] Group 4 - The rise of AI and the availability of information have diminished the traditional value of consulting services, necessitating a redefinition of the industry's value proposition [30][34] - Scandals and failures have led clients to question the value of consulting, with notable cases involving McKinsey and Accenture highlighting performance issues [32][33] - The consulting industry is at a crossroads, facing challenges that require adaptation to survive in an era of information abundance [35][36]

Core Insights - The tea industry is undergoing transformation as consumer confidence stabilizes and shifts towards personal achievement and quality consumption [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Acceptance of the New Normal - Consumers are beginning to adapt to the "new normal," characterized by single-digit growth and cautious spending behavior, with tea consumption showing resilience [6][7] - The annual total consumption is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2025, remaining stable compared to the 2.4% growth expected in 2024, despite a decline in household income growth expectations from 2.5% to 1.4% [6][7] - The proportion of consumption to disposable income has shifted from -0.5% to 0.0%, indicating a cautious yet stable approach to spending [6] Group 2: Stability of Consumer Confidence - Overall consumer confidence is stabilizing, but there is a noticeable structural differentiation within tea consumption groups [11] - Rural consumers, particularly high-income and younger demographics, are showing increased optimism and willingness to spend, driven by rural revitalization policies [14] - In contrast, consumer confidence in first and second-tier cities is declining, particularly among high-income groups, with a notable drop in optimism among older generations [15][17][18] Group 3: Focus on Personal Value - There is a shift in consumer intent, with a decreasing correlation between overall consumption willingness and individual consumption intentions, leading to more rational purchasing decisions [19] - Consumers are increasingly willing to invest in education, health products, and travel, indicating a preference for products that enhance personal value [21] - The tea industry can capitalize on this trend by developing educational programs, functional tea products, and integrating tea culture with tourism, which are expected to see accelerated growth [22][25]