（原标题：波黑两实体今年均呈现高额外贸逆差） 波黑《独立报》10月29日报道。根据波黑两实体的统计机构数据，波黑塞族共和 国和波黑联邦今年均呈现高额外贸逆差。 波黑塞族共和国统计局数据显示，今年1-9月塞族共和国出口额为39.5亿马克，同 比增长7%；进口额55.8亿马克，同比增长2.7%。外贸逆差达16.2亿马克，进出口覆盖率 为70.9%。 波黑联邦统计局数据显示，今年1-9月，波黑联邦出口额83.3亿马克，进口额156.6 亿马克，外贸逆差达73.3亿马克。其中出口月均增长1.77%，进口月均增长0.68%。进出 口覆盖率为53.2%， 以上数据表明，波黑联邦的出口规模是塞族共和国的两倍，但进口规模更是其四 倍。 经济学家伊戈尔·加夫兰指出，出口统计在各实体都相对可靠，因为出口地点通常 与实际生产和结算地一致。但实体层面的进口统计则存在问题，因为无法完全确定进 口商品的最终目的地和消费地。比如，总部位于波黑联邦的众多进口商和主要连锁店 在两个实体均有销售网点、分销商和客户，那么联邦进口数据中有相当部分实际会涉 及塞族共和国的消费，反之亦然。而且，波黑联邦实施周日营业禁令后进一步加剧了 统计混乱，例如现在 ...

Core Insights - Bosnia's trade deficit continues to expand despite growth in both imports and exports during the first seven months of the year [1][2] Group 1: Trade Data - Bosnia's import value from January to July 2023 reached 18.43 billion marks, while exports totaled 10.25 billion marks, resulting in a trade deficit of 8.17 billion marks [1] - In comparison, during the same period in 2022, imports were 17.75 billion marks, exports were 9.74 billion marks, and the trade deficit was 8.01 billion marks [1] Group 2: Major Import and Export Categories - Major imports included mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products (2.14 billion marks), nuclear reactors, boilers, and machinery (1.63 billion marks), and vehicles and parts (1.56 billion marks) [1] - Key exports comprised electrical machinery and equipment (937.2 million marks), nuclear reactors and machinery (826.3 million marks), and furniture and bedding (697.9 million marks) [1] Group 3: Trade Partners - Main export destinations were Croatia (1.82 billion marks), Germany (1.46 billion marks), and Serbia (1.09 billion marks) [2] - Major import sources included Croatia (3.44 billion marks), Serbia (2.44 billion marks), and Slovenia (1.54 billion marks) [2] Group 4: Economic Commentary - Economist Milenko Stanic highlighted that the trade deficit has been a persistent issue, increasing from just over 7 billion marks a decade ago to over 12 billion marks in recent years, with imports accelerating [2] - The inflation rate in Bosnia for the first half of the year was reported at 4.6%, which has significantly impacted the prices of imported and exported goods [2]

Core Insights - Algeria's foreign trade deficit reached $2.07 billion in Q1 2025, a significant shift from a surplus of $900 million in the same period last year [1] - Total exports amounted to $11.68 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.8%, with oil and gas products constituting 90% of the export total [1] - The price of oil and gas exports decreased by 2.5%, while the export volume fell by 2.9% [1] - Non-oil and gas product exports saw a price increase of 5.8%, but the export volume dropped by 16% [1] - Imports surged to $13.7 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, with a notable volume increase of 25.2% [1] - The fastest-growing import categories included beverages and tobacco (up 54.1%) and mineral fuels and lubricants (up 47.4%) [1] - Despite a 4.6% decline in overall import prices, the total import volume continued to rise, indicating strong consumer and industrial demand in Algeria [1] Trade Structure Weaknesses - The trade data highlights ongoing weaknesses in Algeria's trade structure, with oil and gas exports remaining dominant and the non-oil sector still weak [2] - The lack of export diversification continues to pose challenges for the Algerian government in mitigating external shocks [2]

Economic Growth Outlook - Morocco's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 4.3% to 4.5% by Fitch, driven by strong investment, recovering consumer markets, and improving foreign trade conditions [1][2] Investment Dynamics - Productive investment is the main driver of the current economic recovery, with total capital formation in Q1 showing a significant year-on-year increase of 17.5%, marking a post-pandemic high [1] - The Moroccan central bank has cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points, with expectations for further reductions, facilitating credit expansion across various sectors, including consumer loans [1] Infrastructure and Major Events - Preparations for major international events such as the 2025-2026 Africa Cup of Nations and the 2030 World Cup are underway, leading to increased investments in infrastructure, transportation, and hospitality [1] - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to reach 7.9% in 2025, with a slight decline to 5.9% in 2026, still significantly above historical averages [1] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending is showing signs of recovery, driven by low inflation, agricultural recovery boosting farmer incomes, rapid tourism growth, and declining financing costs [2] - Private consumption growth is projected to reach 4.5% in 2025, with continued positive momentum expected in 2026 [2] Inflation and Trade Balance - Inflation expectations for 2025 have been revised down from 1.1% to 0.7%, benefiting from stable energy prices, a weaker dollar, and improved domestic food supply [2] - The trade deficit is expected to improve in 2025 due to reduced agricultural import demand and a recovering European market, supported by Morocco's deep integration with European supply chains [2]