审核 | 浦电路交易员 文 | 陈寒松 来源 | 银河投研黑色与有色 编辑 | 杨兰 前言概要 01 从已公示的机制电价竞价结果来看，大部分省份实际竞价结果低于地方性136号文承接文件的竞价上限，低于存量机制电价。电 价下调影响电站收益水平，从电价和组件对电站收益率敏感性分析的角度来看，组件降价无法刺激需求增加。多晶硅价格变动1 万元/吨对组件价格成本影响在0.25元/W以内，组件对多晶硅的价格约束效应不强。硅片和电池价格、排产降低，当前的多晶硅 现货价格极度脆弱，考验多晶硅企业自律执行力。 只要多晶硅企业维持限售自律不变，企业依旧掌握定价权，终端的困境很难对多晶硅现货造成显著利空。严格执行销售约束必然 结果是厂家累库且增加现金压力，企业最合理行为是自发性减产。因此， 我们认为平台公司的落地并不是"反内卷"终点，对多 晶硅行业真正的考验开始。 在需求走弱、高库存格局下，当前的多晶硅现货价格极度脆弱。平台公司的成立反映多晶硅行业自律决心，多晶硅现货价格或难 降低。仓单数量偏少，近月合约逢低买入更有性价比。全行业利润刚性约束下， 厂家联合提价高点约束在6万元/吨附近，短中 期期货价格极限高点可参考6.3-6.5万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with more contracts rising than falling, indicating increased trading activity and capital inflow into certain commodities [2][5][8]. Market Dynamics - Today's main contracts saw 45 contracts increase while 33 contracts decreased, reflecting a general bullish sentiment in the market [2]. - The top gainers included polysilicon (+6.03%), silver (+4.16%), and caustic soda (+2.82%), significantly influenced by supply and demand factors [5]. - The largest capital inflows were observed in copper (1.989 billion), silver (1.741 billion), and gold (1.488 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [8]. - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from the CSI 300 (-4.304 billion), CSI 500 (-3.721 billion), and CSI 1000 (-2.890 billion), suggesting notable withdrawals from these contracts [8]. Position Changes - Significant increases in open interest were noted in propylene (+34.15%), caustic soda (+18.80%), and silver (+12.15%), indicating new capital entering these markets [11]. - Conversely, notable decreases in open interest were seen in fuel oil (-15.68%), stainless steel (-17.71%), and tin (-22.28%), suggesting capital withdrawal from these commodities [11]. Key Events and Insights - Domestic polysilicon prices have risen to 55 yuan/kg due to recent industry self-discipline and market trading influences, with expectations of a strong long-term price trend despite short-term fluctuations [12]. - Iron ore imports at Chinese ports increased, with total arrivals at 25.26 million tons, indicating stable supply conditions but rising pressure on steel inventories [13]. - Precious metals like gold and silver are experiencing upward price movements due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and geopolitical tensions, enhancing their appeal as safe-haven assets [14][20]. - The coal market is facing volatility due to "anti-involution" policy expectations, with coking coal prices hitting new lows, influenced by production increases and inventory pressures [22]. Future Focus - Upcoming reports from USDA regarding soybean crushing and crop growth are anticipated to provide insights into market dynamics and potential price movements [16][17][18]. - The market is expected to monitor the impact of seasonal demand and policy developments on various commodities, particularly in the context of the upcoming harvest season and geopolitical developments [23].