玻璃二月报 价格相对低位 关注做多机会 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-2-2 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 投资策略：谨慎做多 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货宽幅震荡，周线报收上影小阴线。供给方面，上周一条产线点火复产，日熔量回升至15万吨以上。 全国厂家库存继续保持稳定，但明显高于往年年前水平。沙河库存进一步向中游转移，但下游刚需缩量加快，市场成交受限。 华中前期风雪交通情况恢复，叠加部分家电小板订单，区域走货产销情况较好，厂家借此现货也小幅提涨。华东华南有部分订 单赶工情况，但供需还是向弱势方向发展。需求方面， 北方市场仍旧表现乏力，部分加工厂下旬将逐步放假，南方区域生产订 单多维持至月底。年前整体产销有重新下滑的可能。纯碱方面，远兴二期预计1月末出货，天然碱带来的成本重心下移效果强 于煤炭的短期扰动，关注多玻璃空纯碱的机会。 后市展望：库存、需求、放假等利空因素仍存，但期货价格已处于相对低位，主力到期前仍有时间酝酿变数。宏观地产端 出现多种利好消息。技术上看，空方力量略占优，但强 ...

玻璃：下游临近放假 缺少向上动力 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-1-26 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 01 投资策略：短期观望 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货先跌后涨，周线报收中阴线。供给方面，上周无产线变动，日熔量在14.9万吨。全国厂家库存稳 定，市场投机需求转弱。沙河低价支持厂家库存进一步降低，但期货价格下跌影响，期现商价格更有优势，中游整体库存高位。 华中受风雪天气影响，出货阶段性受限，厂家库存由降转增。华东华南有部分订单赶工情况，刚需形成局部价格支撑。需求方 面， 北方市场仍旧表现乏力，部分加工厂下旬将逐步放假，南方区域生产订单多维持至月底。年前整体产销有重新下滑的可能。 纯碱方面，远兴二期预计1月末出货，天然碱带来的成本重心下移效果强于煤炭的短期扰动，关注多玻璃空纯碱的机会。 后市展望：厂家出货速度放缓，中下游消化高位库存有限，年底前产销有持续走弱的预期。此外，宏观政策预期降温，盘 面缺少实质性的上涨动力。技术上看，多方力量略占优，价格处于震荡调整阶段。综上，预计玻璃价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the glass futures weakened, with speculative sentiment cooling down. Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the inventory in the middle - stream has reached a high level. The daily melting volume remained unchanged at 149,000 tons. The national factory inventory continued to decline due to the release of local speculative demand, and the inventory was further transferred to the middle and lower reaches. Before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises will take holidays, and the decline of visible inventory is expected to slow down, with overall production and sales gradually declining. Macro - policy expectations have cooled down, and the market lacks substantial upward momentum. Technically, the short - side still has the upper hand, and the price is at a critical position in the adjustment stage. It is expected that the glass price will continue to operate in a weak and volatile manner, with the upper resistance level at 1130 - 1140 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that the glass futures weakened last week. With the cooling of speculative sentiment, although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the middle - stream inventory has reached a high level. The daily melting volume remained stable, and the national factory inventory decreased due to speculative demand. Before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises will rest, the decline of visible inventory will slow down, and production and sales will decline. Macro - policy expectations have cooled, and there is no substantial upward momentum in the market. Technically, the short - side dominates, and the price is in a critical adjustment position. It is expected that the glass price will be weak and volatile, with the upper resistance at 1130 - 1140. There is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash [3]. - The operation strategy is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3][4]. 3.2 Market Review: Spot Price Decline - As of January 16, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,020 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,060 yuan/ton in Central China (+90), and 1,190 yuan/ton in East China (+10). Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,103 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan from the previous week [10][11]. 3.3 Market Review: Narrowing of Basis - As of January 16, the futures price of soda ash was 1,192 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,103 yuan/ton, with a spread of 89 yuan/ton (+5). Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was - 43 yuan/ton (+41), and the 05 - 09 spread was - 106 yuan/ton (-12) [12][17]. 3.4 Profit: Continuous Loss - For the natural gas - making process, the cost was 1,568 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 378 yuan/ton (+11). For the coal - gas - making process, the cost was 1,169 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 149 yuan/ton (+1). For the petroleum - coke - making process, the cost was 1,109 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 49 yuan/ton (+1) [21]. 3.5 Supply: No Change - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 149,535 tons/day (unchanged), with 212 production lines in operation [23]. 3.6 Inventory: Continued Inventory Reduction - As of January 16, the inventory of 80 glass sample production factories nationwide was 5,301.3 million weight boxes (-250.5). Among them, the inventory in North China was 837.1 million weight boxes (-95.9), in Central China was 588 million weight boxes (-68.5), in East China was 1,118.8 million weight boxes (-23.7), in South China was 658.8 million weight boxes (+26), in Southwest China was 1,097 million weight boxes (-49.8), the inventory in Shahe factories was 160 million weight boxes (-56), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 386 million weight boxes (-73) [28]. 3.7 Deep - processing: Decrease in Order Days - On January 15, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 103% (-42%). On January 16, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.1% (unchanged). In mid - January, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (+0.7) [30]. 3.8 Demand: Decline in Year - end Automobile Production and Sales - In December, China's automobile production was 3.296 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 vehicles. Sales were 3.272 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 157,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 217,000 vehicles. In December, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.337 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.1% [38]. 3.9 Demand: Year - on - Year Decline in Real Estate Data - In November, China's real estate completion area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the new construction area was 43.9531 million square meters (-28%); the construction area was 31.2717 million square meters (-42%); and the commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million square meters (-18%). From January 4 to January 11, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.33 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 52% and a year - on - year decrease of 40%. In November, real estate development investment was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [43]. 3.10 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Weak Performance in the Futures Market - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,260 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,235 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged), 1,250 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,425 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,192 yuan/ton (-36). The basis of soda ash 05 contract in Central China was 58 yuan/ton (+36) [45][47]. 3.11 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Deterioration of Profit - As of last Friday, the profit of soda ash was - 44 yuan/ton (-4). The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash production was 1,330 yuan/ton (+17), and the gross profit was - 96 yuan/ton (-38); the cost of the combined - soda process was 1,734 yuan/ton (+7), and the gross profit was - 44 yuan/ton (-4) [52][53]. 3.12 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Increase in Production - Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons), including 413,800 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons) and 361,500 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons). The loss was 117,600 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 20,600 tons). At the end of last week, the exchange soda ash warehouse receipts were 3,221 (a month - on - month decrease of 1,699). As of January 16, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.575 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 2,300 tons) [59][63]. 3.13 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Average Apparent Demand - Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 412,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,600 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 361,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 116,200 tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 99.7%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52%. In December, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 27.2 days [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the glass industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [2][91] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass futures strengthened last week, with the weekly line closing as a medium阳线. The cold - repair of multiple production lines at the end of the month, combined with Hubei's environmental protection rectification and gas - conversion plan, drove up the market due to positive supply - side expectations. Considering the supply - side pressure of soda ash and the expected contraction of float glass factory capacity, there is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash. After the New Year's Day, there are still expectations of some production lines shutting down, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by spot - futures traders will boost production and sales. Technically, the bullish force is dominant, so the glass price is expected to maintain a short - term bullish trend [2][91] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review: Rebound in the Market and Narrowing of the Basis - **Futures Price**: The glass 05 contract closed at 1,087 yuan/ton last week, up 39 yuan from the previous week. As of December 31, the spot prices of 5mm float glass were 1,000 yuan/ton (-20) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1,170 yuan/ton (-10) in East China [13] - **Price Difference**: As of December 31, the soda ash - glass price difference was 122 yuan/ton (-14). The basis of the glass 05 contract was -67 yuan/ton (-59) last Friday, and the 05 - 09 spread was -138 yuan/ton (-31) [14][18] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Decline in Daily Melting and Deterioration of Profits - **Profit**: The spot price of glass decreased, leading to a deterioration in gross profit. The cost of the natural - gas production process was 1,572 yuan/ton (-1), with a gross profit of -402 yuan/ton (-9); the cost of the coal - gas production process was 1,164 yuan/ton (+2), with a gross profit of -164 yuan/ton (-22); the cost of the petroleum - coke production process was 1,090 yuan/ton (-1), with a gross profit of -30 yuan/ton (+1) [22] - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 151,055 tons/day (-3,050). Currently, there are 218 production lines in operation, and 4 lines were cold - repaired last week [24] - **Inventory**: As of December 31, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 56.866 million weight boxes (-1.757 million). The inventory in North China was 10.146 million weight boxes (-0.716 million), in Central China was 6.75 million weight boxes (-0.295 million), in East China was 11.47 million weight boxes (-0.253 million), in South China was 7.246 million weight boxes (-0.459 million), in Southwest China was 11.7 million weight boxes (-0.207 million), the warehouse inventory in Shahe was 1.15 million weight boxes (-0.61 million), and in Hubei was 4.53 million weight boxes (-0.52 million) [28][33] - **Production and Sales**: On December 31, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 108% (+10%). On December 30, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.1% (-0.8%). In mid - December, the number of available days for glass deep - processing orders was 9.7 days (-0.4) [34] - **Automobile Demand**: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 0.173 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.095 million; sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 0.107 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.113 million. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.321 million, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [44] - **Real Estate Demand**: In November, China's real estate completion area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the new construction area was 43.9531 million square meters (-28%); the construction area was 31.2717 million square meters (-42%); the commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million square meters (-18%). From December 22 to 28, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.44 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 35% and a year - on - year decrease of 23%. The real estate development investment in November was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [49] - **Import and Export**: In November, China imported 310,900 weight boxes of float glass (a year - on - year increase of 27%) and exported 1.69 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 47%) [51] - **Soda Ash - Cost Side**: The spot prices of heavy soda ash were 1,325 yuan/ton (0) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (0) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (0) in South China. The soda ash 05 contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton (+25), and the basis of soda ash in Central China 05 was 91 yuan/ton (-25) last Friday. The ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,312 yuan/ton (-7), with a gross profit of -57 yuan/ton (+9); the co - production process cost was 1,738 yuan/ton (-29), with a gross profit of -21 yuan/ton (+21). As of December 31, the national factory - level inventory of soda ash was 1.4083 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons), including 676,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 26,900 tons) and 732,200 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 3,300 tons). The apparent consumption of heavy soda ash last week was 454,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 45,200 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 318,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,100 tons. The production - sales ratio of soda ash was 108.54%, a week - on - week increase of 9.23% [58][60][79][88] 3. Investment Strategy: Short - Term Speculation, Oscillating with a Bullish Bias - **Main Logic**: The glass futures strengthened last week. The cold - repair of multiple production lines at the end of the month, combined with Hubei's environmental protection rectification and gas - conversion plan, drove up the market due to positive supply - side expectations. The supply decreased as 3 production lines shut down last week, with the daily melting volume decreasing by nearly 150,000 tons. The demand in the northern market decreased as terminal projects were coming to an end, and the end - of - year demand in the southern market was lower than last year, with poor restocking willingness among middle - and lower - stream enterprises. Most manufacturers focused on collecting payments and were bearish on the market next year. Given the supply - side pressure of soda ash and the expected contraction of float glass factory capacity, there is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash. After the New Year's Day, there are still expectations of some production lines shutting down, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by spot - futures traders will boost production and sales. Technically, the bullish force is dominant [2][91] - **Operation Strategy**: Oscillating with a Bullish Bias [2][91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to be moderately bullish with short - term fluctuations [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, glass prices are expected to fluctuate and be moderately bullish around New Year's Day. Although the supply - demand situation of glass has deteriorated in the medium - to - long - term, there are short - term speculative opportunities due to the planned shutdown of multiple glass production lines around New Year's Day and the mid - stream replenishment before the Spring Festival. Technically, the bulls slightly dominate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that last week, the glass futures rebounded slightly. With the clear cold - repair of multiple production lines at the end of the month and the rumored shutdown plans in Hubei, the expectation of supply reduction was hyped, slightly pushing up the market. The demand for thin - plate glass from home appliance orders supports the market, but most manufacturers focus on collecting payments and are bearish on next year's market. Given the high supply pressure of soda ash and the expected contraction of float glass production capacity, there is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash. The outlook is that glass prices are expected to fluctuate and be moderately bullish around New Year's Day [3]. - The operating strategy is to be moderately bullish [4]. 3.2 Market Review - **Spot price**: As of December 26, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,010 yuan/ton (-20) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (-20) in Central China, and 1,180 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. The futures price of the glass 05 contract closed at 1,057 yuan/ton last Friday, up 16 yuan from the previous week [11]. - **Monthly spread**: As of December 26, the futures price of soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, and that of glass was 1,057 yuan/ton, with a spread of 143 yuan/ton (+8). The basis of the glass 05 contract was - 37 yuan/ton (-36) last Friday, and the 05 - 09 spread was - 103 yuan/ton (-6) [12][17]. 3.3 Profit - **Cost and profit of different processes**: For the natural - gas - based process, the cost was 1,572 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the gross profit was - 392 yuan/ton (-10). For the coal - gas - based process, the cost was 1,162 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 152 yuan/ton (-19). For the petroleum - coke - based process, the cost was 1,087 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the gross profit was - 27 yuan/ton (-20) [21]. - **Fuel prices**: On December 26, the industrial natural - gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US sulfur 3% shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 573 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass was 154,105 tons/day (-1,000) last Friday, with 218 production lines in operation. The fourth line of Dongguan Humen of Guangdong Xinyi with a capacity of 900 tons/day shut down last week [23]. 3.5 Inventory - As of December 26, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 5,862.3 million weight boxes. The inventory in North China was 1,086.2 million weight boxes (+41.2), in Central China was 704.5 million weight boxes (+19.5), in East China was 1,172.3 million weight boxes (-37), in South China was 770.5 million weight boxes (-26.8), in Southwest China was 1,190.7 million weight boxes (-6.5), the inventory in Shahe factories was 394 million weight boxes (+44), and in Hubei factories was 501 million weight boxes (+26) [27]. 3.6 Deep - processing - The order days of glass deep - processing were 9.7 days in mid - December (-0.4). The comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 100% on December 25 (+11%). The operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.1% on December 26 [31][34]. 3.7 Demand - **Automobile**: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 95,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 113,000 vehicles. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.321 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [40]. - **Real estate**: In November, China's real - estate completion area was 45.9293 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the new - construction area was 43.9531 million m² (-28%); the construction area was 31.2717 million m² (-42%); and the commercial - housing sales area was 67.1974 million m² (-18%). From December 3 to December 21, the total commercial - housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.55 million m², a month - on - month increase of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 25%. The real - estate development investment in November was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [45]. 3.8 Cost - end - Soda Ash - **Futures price**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,200 yuan/ton (+24), and the basis of the soda ash Huazhong 05 contract was 100 yuan/ton (-24) [51][52]. - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the soda - ash profit was - 21 yuan/ton (+21). The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1,312 yuan/ton (-7), with a gross profit of - 57 yuan/ton (+9); the cost of the co - production method was 1,738 yuan/ton (-29), with a gross profit [61]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26, the number of soda - ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 4,544 (a weekly increase of 12). The national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4385 million tons (a monthly decrease of 60,800 tons), including 703,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a monthly decrease of 68,700 tons) and 735,500 tons of light soda ash (a monthly decrease of 7,900 tons) [65][68]. - **Apparent consumption**: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 454,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 45,200 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 318,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,100 tons. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.54%, a week - on - week increase of 9.23% [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★☆ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure from demand, with different products facing various supply - demand situations. Positive and negative factors coexist, and investors need to pay attention to specific product trends and relevant influencing factors [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summaries by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had narrow intraday fluctuations. The demand is weak, but the maintenance of Binzhou PDH device may support price stabilization [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. The supply of polyethylene increased due to reduced maintenance and new production, while demand weakened. Polypropylene faced supply pressure from new capacity and reduced maintenance, and demand was limited by low profit [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated around 5,500 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased, and there are medium - term negatives. The strategy is mainly month - spread reverse arbitrage [3] - Styrene futures were weak. The cost support was insufficient, and the high inventory pressure continued [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. Supply increased, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation. The strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly, but inventory increased. The supply pressure is high, and the strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Short fiber had a good spot pattern but may face inventory accumulation in mid - to late November. Bottle chip demand weakened, and the cost was the main driver [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell sharply. High inventory and weak demand persisted, waiting for supply reduction and demand improvement [6] - Urea prices oscillated narrowly. Downstream demand increased, and inventory decreased, but the market may continue to oscillate at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC was at a low level due to weak cost support, high supply, and weak demand [7] - Caustic soda prices were slightly stronger, but high inventory and weak demand may keep prices low. Attention should be paid to liquid chlorine prices [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to increased supply and reduced demand. Consider the strategy of long glass and short soda ash [8] - Glass prices rose. Inventory is expected to decrease, but cost increase and insufficient orders may limit the rise [8]