原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年8月7日 | | | Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 8月7日 | 8月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent | 66.92 | 66.89 | 0.03 | 0.04% | | | WII | 64.41 | 64.35 | 0.06 | 0.09% | 美元/桶 | | SC | 502.10 | 504.20 | -2.10 | -0.42% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 0.01 | 0.93% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 1.65 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 98.80% | 美元/桶 | | SC MI-M3 | 12.10 | 8.80 | 3.30 | 37.50% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 2.51 | 2.54 | -0.03 | -1.18% | | | EFS | 0.70 | 0.89 | -0 ...

| Million | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月06日 | | 尿素 | なな女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 塑料 | な女女 | | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | ★★★ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | 女女女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | な女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ななな | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | 女女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主力合 ...

| Million | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月05日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | ☆☆☆ | 苯乙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 爱两烯 | ☆☆☆ | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | ☆☆☆ | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | な女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货尾 ...

从需求端来看，新能源车轻量化趋势刺激工程塑料需求激增，间接拉动苯乙烯、苯酚消费；风电产业扩 张带动环氧树脂产能投放，进一步增加苯酚消耗；可降解材料政策驱动下，己二酸下游聚己二酸丁二醇 酯大规模扩产，开启需求增量空间。 国际话语权将从跟随型向主导型转变 7月，纯苯期货和期权在大连商品交易所正式挂牌上市，我国纯苯市场迎来了重要金融工具。业内人士 表示，稳定市场工具箱的丰富，将为规模化行业的可持续发展提供技术支撑。未来随着产能加速扩张、 供需趋向平衡以及市场主导权增强，我国纯苯行业或将步入由大至强的转型发展期。 产能扩张步伐加快 据隆众资讯数据统计，2007年以来国内纯苯产能呈现快速增长态势，2007年国内纯苯有效产能不足500 万吨，2015年突破1000万吨，2019年达到1500万吨，此后投产速度加快，2024年国内纯苯产能达3234万 吨，产量为2513万吨，占全球产量的39%；表观消费量为2926万吨，占全球消费量的43%；进口量为 431万吨，对外依存度为15%；贸易量为1340万吨，商品化率约53%。 河南省石油和化学工业协会相关负责人表示，从数据来看，近年来我国纯苯行业产能扩张明显，步伐在 加快，除 ...

国际话语权将从跟随型向主导型转变 7月，纯苯期货和期权在大连商品交易所正式挂牌上市，我国纯苯市场迎来了重要金融工具。业内人士 表示，稳定市场工具箱的丰富，将为规模化行业的可持续发展提供技术支撑。未来随着产能加速扩张、 供需趋向平衡以及市场主导权增强，我国纯苯行业或将步入由大至强的转型发展期。 产能扩张步伐加快 据隆众资讯数据统计，2007年以来国内纯苯产能呈现快速增长态势，2007年国内纯苯有效产能不足500 万吨，2015年突破1000万吨，2019年达到1500万吨，此后投产速度加快，2024年国内纯苯产能达3234万 吨，产量为2513万吨，占全球产量的39%；表观消费量为2926万吨，占全球消费量的43%；进口量为 431万吨，对外依存度为15%；贸易量为1340万吨，商品化率约53%。 河南省石油和化学工业协会相关负责人表示，从数据来看，近年来我国纯苯行业产能扩张明显，步伐在 加快，除了"三桶油"的大炼化新增项目不断投产，民营炼化产能也在集中释放。2023—2025年民营炼化 新增产能超800万吨，推动国内自给率升至90%。在全球化工产业格局中，我国纯苯市场已成为全球产 能、消费与进口规模最大的市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Olefins: ★★☆ (suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish or bearish bias, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally affected by macro - policies, and different sectors show different trends and influencing factors. Some sectors are driven by policies, while others are restricted by supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures rose on the day, with macro - positives still boosting the market. The restart of propylene plants and downstream start - up rhythms are in a game, with increased propylene supply weakening the fundamentals and suppressing price rebounds. The market may remain weak in the short term [2] - Polyolefin futures continued to rise. For polyethylene, although macro - policies are positive, demand is weak and domestic supply is abundant. For polypropylene, after the sale of low - price resources, the price center has risen, but short - term demand is affected by the off - season, and the short - term increase may be limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene has strengthened significantly due to the rebound of oil prices and domestic commodity sentiment and policies. The weekly output has declined, and the expectation of hydrogenated benzene is strong. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the mid - to - late third quarter, but it will face pressure again in the fourth quarter. Band operation of monthly spreads is recommended [3] - Styrene futures rose, hitting the half - year line. The macro - aspect continues to boost the market. Downstream buyers operate according to the market, mainly digesting existing raw materials, and spot procurement is on - demand, with poor spot trading [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose significantly, driven by oil prices, market sentiment, and policies. PX has limited fundamental drivers. The inventory pressure of filaments has eased, and the drag on upstream raw materials is expected to weaken. PTA processing margins are low and have room for repair, waiting for the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Ethylene glycol continued to rise with increased positions, boosted by the positive sentiment in the coal market and domestic policies. Downstream demand is stable on a weekly basis, domestic supply has increased slightly, and ports have slightly accumulated inventory. Overseas device operation is unstable, which may disrupt the market [4] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices rebounded with raw materials. Short - term demand for short fiber is still in the off - season, but new capacity is limited, and the recovery of future demand is expected to boost the industry. For bottle chips, the load continues to decline, and price repair is limited under low - start conditions [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures continued to rise, mainly affected by relevant policies. The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and ports are expected to see unexpected destocking this week. Domestic main - producing area enterprises are starting autumn maintenance, but some enterprises may resume work early or postpone maintenance due to good profits. Downstream procurement is for rigid demand, and enterprise inventory has decreased slightly [5] - Urea futures fluctuated strongly. The peak season of agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the current operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is still low. Domestic downstream demand is weak. Export goods are being shipped to ports, and production enterprises are continuously destocking, but the destocking rate has slowed down. The market supply remains sufficient, and with policy support, the urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices were pushed up by cost due to the fermentation of anti - involution policies, and the futures price was strong. The demand of downstream product enterprises is in the off - season, and social inventory has been accumulating since July. Domestic demand is weak, and export deliveries have decreased. Supply is expected to increase next week. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with cost; in the long term, if the elimination of backward production capacity does not meet expectations, the price may not rise continuously [6] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. Upstream salt has issued an anti - involution document, and attention should be paid to whether it will affect the raw salt industry and drive up the price of caustic soda raw materials. Downstream buyers resist high prices, supply has increased, and inventory has increased month - on - month. Alumina demand provides some support, but non - aluminum downstream demand is average. The short - term market is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the elimination of backward production capacity [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to be strong due to the temporary shutdown of Haitian's device and positive sentiment. Inventory continued to decline, and the spot price increased. The supply is under high pressure. The photovoltaic industry is suffering large losses and is reducing production due to anti - involution policies. In the short term, the market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to whether actual policies will be introduced for the small amount of backward production capacity [7] - Glass prices continued to rise, with a 50 - yuan increase in Shahe today. Middle - stream buyers are stocking up, and the industry is in a destocking mode. Industry profits have slightly recovered, and production capacity has fluctuated slightly. Processing orders are weak. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash at low levels can be considered [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The market saw double destocking in both inland and ports. Reasons include slower port unloading and improved MTO profits leading to port purchases. Inland prices fluctuated slightly, with high maintenance losses in July and复产 expectations later. Demand was restricted by the traditional off - season, and new capacity launches affected the market. In ports, the basis strengthened, and with the return of Iranian production, imports were expected to be 1.25 million tons in July and decline slightly in August. MTO maintenance was uncertain after profit repair [1]. - **Urea**: The market was in a state of 'strong expectation vs. weak reality'. The potential for large - scale and long - term maintenance in major production areas was a potential positive factor, but demand was in a lull. The market was mainly affected by the contradiction between supply contraction expectations and weak actual demand, and policy sentiment also had an impact. Future price breakthroughs depend on substantial improvement in demand [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved slightly, but with high import expectations and port inventory, its own driving force was limited. Short - term trends may be under pressure. For styrene, the supply - demand outlook was weak, port inventory increased, and the basis weakened. Short - term trends may also be under pressure [18]. - **Polyolefins**: In terms of valuation, marginal profits were gradually recovering, but supply and demand for PP and PE both contracted, and inventories accumulated while demand remained weak. In the dynamic dimension, PP maintenance reached its peak, PE maintenance first increased and then decreased, and imports were still scarce. There was a seasonal improvement in demand at the end of July. Strategically, the market sentiment was warm, with PP expected to fluctuate weakly and PE to be bought within a range [22]. - **Crude Oil**: Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to the structural contradiction between crude oil destocking and macro - level suppression of long - term demand. Although EIA data showed a large reduction in crude oil inventory, the inventory structure was differentiated. The market was also concerned about tariff frictions, which restricted the upward space of oil prices. Short - term trends were likely to maintain a weak oscillation [25]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, although supply was generally stable, demand support was limited, and short - term trends may be under pressure. PTA supply - demand was expected to be weak, and short - term trends may also face pressure. MEG supply - demand was expected to improve in the short term, with support at the bottom. Short - fiber supply and demand were both weak, and the absolute price fluctuated with raw materials. Bottle - chip supply - demand showed some improvement, but absolute prices still followed raw materials [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, but high profits led to high production. Downstream non - aluminum demand was in a relative off - season, but there was phased restocking. Short - term macro - level disturbances increased trading risks, and it was recommended to take profits on previous long positions. For PVC, the market was in a season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with no significant improvement in fundamentals. Short - term trading was mainly affected by macro - level sentiment, and it was recommended to wait and see [47]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased, while the MA91 spread and some regional spreads changed. Spot prices in different regions also showed various fluctuations [1]. - **Inventory**: Middle - sized methanol enterprises' inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all decreased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates had different changes [1]. Urea - **Futures**: Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, and contract spreads changed [9][10]. - **Positions**: Long and short positions of the top 20 decreased, and the long - short ratio slightly increased [11]. - **Raw Materials and Spot**: Some upstream raw material prices were stable, while spot prices in different regions showed small fluctuations [12]. - **Downstream Products**: Prices of some downstream products were stable, and the fertilizer market also had price changes [14][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, plant operating rates, and inventory levels had different changes [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices, and prices of related products such as CFR Japan naphtha and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed. Spreads between products also changed [18]. - **Styrene - Related**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and related spreads and cash flows changed [18]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased, and industry operating rates had different trends [18]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot**: Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, and spot prices in different regions also declined. Spreads and basis also changed [22]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, and inventory levels in different sectors increased [22]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices and related spreads changed [25]. - **Refined Oil**: Refined oil prices, spreads, and cracking spreads had different fluctuations [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream raw material prices such as Brent crude oil and PX changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also showed various trends [29]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: MEG port inventory and arrival expectations, and industry operating rates in different segments had different changes [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures**: Spot and futures prices of PVC and caustic soda changed, and spreads and basis also had different trends [47]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side operating rates and profit levels, and demand - side downstream operating rates and inventory levels had different changes [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].