能源化工日报 2026-01-05 2026/01/05 原油 【行情资讯】 截至节假日最后交易日，INE 主力原油期货收跌 6.40 元/桶，跌幅 1.46%，报 432.20 元/桶； 相关成品油主力期货高硫燃料油收跌 37.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.49%，报 2447.00 元/吨；低硫燃料 油收跌 65.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.17%，报 2935.00 元/吨。 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比累库 1.38 百万桶至 10.52 百万桶，环比累库 15.07%； 柴油库存环比去库 0.12 百万桶至 14.61 百万桶，环比去库 0.81%；燃料油库存环比累库 0.37 百万桶至 7.06 百万桶，环比累库 5.60%；石脑油环比去库 0.83 百万桶至 4.63 百万桶，环比 去库 15.18%；航空煤油环比去库 0.36 百万桶至 7.82 百万桶，环比去库 4.43%；总体成品油 环比累库 0.44 百万桶至 44.64 百万桶，环比累库 1.00%。 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xushaozu@wkq ...

能源化工日报 2025-12-30 2025/12/30 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 8.60 元/桶，跌幅 1.94%，报 434.80 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 44.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.76%，报 2459.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 49.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.62%，报 2974.00 元/吨。 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比累库 0.94 百万桶至 10.16 百万桶，环比累库 10.14%； 柴油库存环比去库 0.27 百万桶至 14.70 百万桶，环比去库 1.79%；燃料油库存环比累库 0.01 百万桶至 7.21 百万桶，环比累库 0.18%；石脑油环比去库 0.05 百万桶至 4.98 百万桶，环比 去库 1.07%；航空煤油环比累库 0.05 百万桶至 8.84 百万桶，环比累库 0.54%；总体成品油环 比累库 0.67 百万桶至 45.89 百万桶，环比累库 1.49%。 刘洁文 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Natural Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price may rise due to commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals are weak. Consider short - selling around 15700 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is bearish, prices are in a downward trend with occasional technical rebounds. Look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3]. - Glass: The spot market is under pressure, and the 05 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom before positive drivers emerge [3]. Crude Oil Industry - International crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The supply is in excess, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel. Monitor EIA data and geopolitical developments [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: The short - term rebound space is limited. Consider short - selling EB02/03 above 6800 and narrowing the EB spread [6]. Polyolefin Industry - PP: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the 05 contract may face pressure if there are few planned maintenance in 1 - 3 months. - PE: Supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving, and short - term pressure is relieved [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The supply - demand is weak, inventory is high, and the rebound height is limited. - PVC: The spot fundamentals are weak, and it is difficult to support price increases [8]. Urea Industry - The short - term supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the futures main contract focusing on the 1700 - 1760 range [9]. LPG Industry No clear overall view provided in the given LPG - related content. Ester Industry - PX: The short - term supply - demand may weaken, with prices adjusting before the Spring Festival. Consider exiting long positions, short - selling for the aggressive, and low - buying in the medium - term. - PTA: Follow raw material fluctuations. Exit long positions, short - sell for the aggressive, and low - buy in the medium - term. - MEG: Overseas supply may shrink, but near - month inventory accumulation is expected, and price increases face resistance. - Short - fiber: Follow raw material fluctuations, and narrow the processing spread when it is high. - Bottle chips: Domestic supply is expected to increase, and compress the processing spread when it is high [13]. Methanol Industry - The port may face inventory accumulation in December, and the supply - demand balance may turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland price oscillates narrowly. Monitor inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [16]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned full - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 15200 to 15300, with a 0.66% increase. - The full - latex basis increased by 9.43% to - 480 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 50% to 15 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Consumption - Thailand's November production decreased by 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons. - China's November production increased by 23.70 thousand tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515227 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - North China glass price remained at 1010 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of glass decreased by 5.13% to 74 yuan/ton [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - Northwest soda ash price decreased by 4.21% to 910 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 3.24% to 179 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output decreased by 1.33% to 71.18 million tons [3]. Inventory - Soda ash factory inventory decreased by 4.06% to 143.85 million tons [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.57% to 60.64 dollars per barrel [4]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB decreased by 2.86% to 169.71 cents per gallon [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 3.9% to 133 dollars/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price increased by 2.4% to 6700 dollars/ton [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.4% to 13.93 million tons [6]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 6388 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. - The L15 spread decreased by 61.70% to - 76 yuan/ton [7]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 5.99% to 45.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 1.46% to 82.6% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% decreased by 0.7% to 2218.8 yuan/ton. - V2605 increased by 1.6% to 4832 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2% to 88.7%. - PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9% to 75.4% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 2.6% to 22.1 million tons [8]. Urea Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 01 contract of urea decreased by 0.48% to 1667 yuan/ton [9]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily output remained at 19.19 million tons. - Factory inventory decreased by 9.39% to 106.89 million tons [9]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract increased by 0.07% to 4238 yuan/ton. - The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.63% to 158 yuan/ton [11]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 1.69% to 24.1%. - Downstream PDH operating rate increased by 1.81% to 76.4% [11]. Ester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - CFR China PX increased by 2.0% to 918 dollars/ton [13]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price increased by 2.0% to 6570 yuan/ton [13]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.6% to 79.5% [13]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. - The MTO05盘面 increased by 13.18% to - 191 [14]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.28% to 40.397 million tons [15]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.46% to 77.99% [16].

能源化工日报 2025-12-29 原油 2025/12/29 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.20 元/桶，跌幅 0.27%，报 441.80 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 18.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.73%，报 2491.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 5.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.17%，报 3017.00 元/吨。 新加坡 ESG 油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存累库 0.06 百万桶至 15.06 百万桶，环比累库 0.43%； 柴油库存累库 0.07 百万桶至 8.43 百万桶，环比累库 0.85%；燃料油库存去库 1.40 百万桶至 24.66 百万桶，环比去库 5.39%；总成品油去库 1.27 百万桶至 48.15 百万桶，环比去库 2.57%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低 ...

能源化工日报 2025-12-25 原油 2025/12/25 原油 能源化工组 INE 主力原油期货收涨 3.00 元/桶，涨幅 0.68%，报 444.70 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 2.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.08%，报 2480.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 14.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.47%，报 3014.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 0.70 百万桶至 6.27 百万桶，环比去库 10.08%； 柴油库存去库 0.38 百万桶至 2.29 百万桶，环比去库 14.25%；燃料油库存去库 1.02 百万桶至 10.38 百万桶，环比去库 8.95%；总成品油去库 2.10 百万桶至 18.94 百万桶，环比去库 10.00%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 甲醇 2025/12/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Natural Rubber**: With geopolitical tensions affecting supply in Thailand and domestic产区 entering the off - season, there is support at the bottom of rubber prices. However, due to high production and sales pressure and the seasonal demand slump, the market is weak. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely between 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the supply may increase with the potential output from new projects, and demand is shrinking, so the price is expected to continue to decline with occasional technical rebounds. For glass, the spot price is stable but facing weakening demand in the north and high inventory in the middle - stream, so the futures price may be under pressure and continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda industry still has supply - demand pressure, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is affected by high supply, low demand, and cost pressure, and is expected to maintain range - bound trading and then weaken after a rebound [4]. - **Polyolefins**: The market is trading on the expectation of high production in 2026 and weak current conditions. Both PE and PP are facing downward pressure on prices, with the price center expected to decline further [6]. - **Methanol**: Although the port may face inventory accumulation in December, there is an expected shift to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland market is expected to be stable with prices fluctuating slightly [10]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term driving force for pure benzene is weak due to weak downstream demand and cost support, but there is an expectation of improvement after the spring maintenance. Styrene is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton due to sufficient supply and weak cost support [13]. - **LPG**: The LPG market shows a pattern of stable prices, inventory reduction, and some improvement in downstream demand. The price is expected to be relatively stable with some fluctuations [15]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, it may continue to be strong unless there is substantial production reduction in the polyester sector. PTA is expected to follow the raw material price with limited independent movement. MEG is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - fiber prices follow the raw material, and the processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to be compressed [17]. - **Crude Oil**: The market is dominated by geopolitical factors. With high supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the price of Brent crude at $60 per barrel [18]. - **Urea**: The futures price is weak, while the spot price is rising. The Indian tender is beneficial for exports, but high supply and weak demand in the domestic market lead to a difficult price trend. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned rubber, Thai - standard mixed rubber, etc. have decreased. The basis and inter - contract spreads have also changed. For example, the all - milk basis decreased by 25.93% [1]. - **Production and Supply**: Thailand's production decreased slightly in October, while India's increased. China's production decreased. The opening rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, and tire production and exports increased in November [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda ash in different regions were mostly stable, with some futures prices decreasing. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, while the melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased slightly, the soda ash factory inventory increased slightly, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the V - basis increased by 2600% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's supply - demand pressure remains, and the PVC industry has high supply and low demand. The opening rates of related industries changed slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory increased while the total social inventory decreased [4]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE, PP futures and spot decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the LP01 spread decreased by 39.39% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: The PE and PP enterprise inventories and social inventories changed, and the device opening rates of PE and PP also changed [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures and spot decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the MA15 spread increased by 23.81% [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [9]. - **Production and Supply**: The upstream and downstream opening rates of methanol changed slightly [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures and spot changed slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 0.3% [13]. - **Inventory and Production**: The pure benzene inventory remained unchanged, and the opening rates of related industries decreased [13]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures and spot changed slightly, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.83% [15]. - **Inventory and Production**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio remained stable, the port inventory decreased, and the upstream and downstream opening rates changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as PX and downstream polyester products changed. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed. For example, the PX - naphtha spread increased by 12.4% [17]. - **Inventory and Production**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the opening rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the Brent - WTI spread increased by 3.40% [18]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as RBOB, ULSD, and Gasoil changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [18]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of urea decreased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts changed. The spot price increased [20]. - **Inventory and Production**: The urea production is at a high level, the factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. - The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. - The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance. [31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a 0.40% decline, at 426.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.06 million barrels to 15.06 million barrels, a 0.43% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.07 million barrels to 8.43 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.40 million barrels to 24.66 million barrels, a 5.39% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 48.15 million barrels, a 2.57% decrease [8]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 38 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by 25 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2148 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was reported at - 159 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 20 yuan/ton, in Henan by 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 20 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The total basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 11 yuan/ton, reporting 1697 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has been consolidating. The exchange's RU inventory warrants are at a low level, and the buying demand for winter storage is a bullish factor. The bulls believe in seasonal expectations and improved demand, while the bears are concerned about macro uncertainties and weak demand. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tires has increased. As of December 14, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 115.2 tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous month [10][11]. - **Strategy**: A neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 56 yuan, reporting 4652 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4400 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 252 (+ 26) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 129 (+ 1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 2.1% decrease from the previous period. The demand - side overall downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period. The factory inventory was 32.9 tons (- 1.6), and the social inventory was 105.7 tons (- 0.3) [12]. - **Strategy**: The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5394 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene basis was - 119 yuan/ton, narrowing by 13 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6402 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The basis was 98 yuan/ton, weakening by 67 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 129.12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated plant profit was - 406.75 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, up 1.02%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.47 tons, a decrease of 1.21 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.60%, down 1.67%. The PS operating rate was 54.50%, down 3.80%, the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, down 1.96%, and the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, up 0.47% [16]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6320 yuan/ton, down 156 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6450 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. The basis was 130 yuan/ton, strengthening by 96 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.58%, a 0.92% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 48.78 tons, a 1.72 - ton increase from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 3.56 tons, a 0.20 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, narrowing by 9 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy**: Although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6213 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 62 yuan/ton, strengthening by 66 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.74%, a 1.66% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 53.78 tons, a 0.07 - ton increase from the previous week, the trader inventory was 19.83 tons, a 0.9 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the port inventory was 6.75 tons, a 0.07 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 107 yuan/ton, narrowing by 90 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 208 yuan, reporting 7070 yuan. The PX CFR rose 26 dollars, reporting 866 dollars. The basis was - 28 yuan (unchanged), and the 3 - 5 spread was 54 yuan (+ 22). The PX operating rate in China was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 78.9%, down 0.4%. In terms of plants, a 26 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos restarted, and a 55 - ton plant of South Korea's GS was under maintenance. The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first ten days of December were 13.9 tons, a 0.5 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a 4.8 - ton increase from the previous month. The PXN was 305 dollars (+ 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 143 dollars (+ 1), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 dollars (+ 9) [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 134 yuan, reporting 4882 yuan. The East - China spot price rose 100 yuan, reporting 4750 yuan. The basis was - 10 yuan (+ 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 72 yuan (+ 4). The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. The downstream operating rate was 91.2%, unchanged. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 79%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 5% to 62%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 215 tons, a 1.9 - ton decrease from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee fell 37 yuan to 130 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 3 yuan to 244 yuan [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 29 yuan, reporting 3738 yuan. The East - China spot price fell 34 yuan, reporting 3633 yuan. The basis was - 16 yuan (+ 6), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 66 yuan (+ 1). The ethylene glycol operating rate was 72%, up 2%. The synthetic - gas - based operating rate was 75.5%, up 3.3%, and the ethylene - based operating rate was 70%, up 1.3%. In terms of plants, Zheng Dakai restarted, and a line of Yankuang was under maintenance. The import arrival forecast was 11.8 tons, and the East - China departure on December 18 was 0.86 tons. The port inventory was 84.4 tons, a 2.5 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 834 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 964 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 29 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 570 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chips: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing downward pressure and some having potential for short - term strength or long - term improvement [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summary of Each Section Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures dropped significantly. Production enterprises faced inventory pressure and increased the incentive to sell at a discount. The demand was negatively affected by the increase in the number of shutdown or planned shutdown of polypropylene plants [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures may enter an accelerated downward phase. The supply pressure of polyethylene increased due to high - load operation and slow inventory digestion, and the demand was weak. The cost support of polypropylene weakened, and the demand was relatively weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rebounded slightly from a low level. The import pressure decreased slightly, and the supply - demand pressure may ease. It is recommended to consider long - term positive spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures showed a weak consolidation. The cost support was insufficient, the de - stocking slowed down, and the market was in a weak downward trend [3] Polyester - PX and PTA increased in positions and prices, and the basis weakened. PX is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded and then weakened. Although the supply may shrink, the long - term pressure remains due to expected new production capacity [5] - Short - fiber's supply - demand seasonally weakened, and its long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chips' demand faded, and the long - term pressure comes from over - capacity [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol futures prices fell. The port continued to de - stock, and the short - term port market is expected to be strong [6] - Urea prices corrected slightly. The daily production decreased, and the demand was strong. The short - term price may fluctuate strongly within a range [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices dropped. The supply pressure eased, but the demand was low. It is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short - term [7] - Caustic soda prices declined. The supply pressure was high, and the profit is expected to be compressed in the long - term [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell again. The supply pressure was high, and it is recommended to short on rebounds in the long - term [8] - Glass prices also declined again. The inventory pressure was large, and the demand was insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term long - short stalemate. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 - 15,500. Supply - side support exists due to geopolitical tensions in Thailand and domestic产区停割, while demand - side growth is restricted by slow tire sales and low profits in some sectors [1]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene face a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating higher. The port market may be weak in the near term due to Iranian supply, while the inland market has increasing supply and demand. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after reduced shipments [6][8]. LPG No specific overall view is provided other than presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have limited downside. The BZ2603 may oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600. Styrene has limited driving force and is expected to be weak in the short - term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Rolling low - buying operations are recommended. - PTA: TA rolling low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are suggested. - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and selling EG2605 - C - 4100 is advisable to obtain time value. - Short - fiber: It follows raw material fluctuations, and the disk processing fee can be shorted when it is high. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Selling PR2602 - P - 5500 is recommended, and the main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [15]. Crude Oil - The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Brent crude should be monitored at the $60/barrel level. Attention should be paid to US - Russia talks, Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [16]. Urea - The 2605 contract's main logic is the support of spring plowing fertilizer demand under high - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at 1,700 and the spirit of the urea meeting [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and the price outlook is not optimistic. Short - term observation and shorting on rebounds are recommended [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling opportunities after rebounds should be noted. - Glass: The market has pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December, while the 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 15,050 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 20.59%. Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 16.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 66.67% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 0.29%, Indonesia's by 1.53%, and China's by a certain amount. November domestic tire production increased by 3.96%, and exports increased by 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory increased by 2.08%, and上期所factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 3.87% [1]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: L2601 and L2605 decreased slightly, PP2601 increased by 0.10%, and PP2605 decreased by 0.40%. Some spot prices changed slightly [4]. - **Spreads**: L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed to different extents [4]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 1.28%, and some PP开工率 and inventory indicators changed [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86%, while port inventory decreased by 1.26% [7]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators increased or decreased [8]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory increased [12]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators changed [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: Some prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Benzene and styrene port inventories changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some开工率 indicators of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Crude oil, PX, and polyester product prices changed to different extents [15]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads, PTA - related spreads, and MEG - related spreads changed [15]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 indicators and MEG port inventory changed [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, and some spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Some refined oil prices and spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Some refined oil crack spreads changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and some spot prices changed [18]. - **Spreads and Positions**: Some spreads and positions changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and订单天数 changed [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Some prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**:开工率, demand - side开工率, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass and Soda Ash Prices**: Some prices of glass and soda ash changed [20]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率, production, and inventory, as well as glass inventory and some related data changed [20]. - **Real Estate Data**: Some real - estate data changed [20].