1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. - For urea, suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. - For polyethylene, wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. - For PX, although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 22.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 2.94%, at 740.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 175.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.79%, at 4446.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.11%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 159.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3229 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 104 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, Shandong, Henan, and Northeast China had no price changes; Hubei decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 8 yuan/ton, reported at 1874 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene was strong in the spot market due to import demand from Japan and South Korea. As of March 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.26%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 1.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.10%, down 0.07 percentage points from last week and 5.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders declined, and the tire inventory pressure increased. As of March 22, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a decrease of 1% [10][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 198 yuan, reported at 5353 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5220 (- 230) yuan/ton, the basis was - 133 (- 32) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 106 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.9%, up 0.8% month - on - month; the calcium carbide method was 85.2%, up 0.5% month - on - month; the ethylene method was 70.7%, up 1.5% month - on - month. The overall downstream operating rate was 46%, up 4.3% month - on - month. The in - plant inventory was 339,000 tons (- 27,000 tons), and the social inventory was 1.374 million tons (+ 3,000 tons) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8940 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 8790 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene basis was 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 272 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the closing price of the styrene active contract was 10597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 192 yuan/ton; the basis was 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 268.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 168,400 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.67%, a decrease of 0.27%. The PS operating rate was 51.40%, a decrease of 0.20%, the EPS operating rate was 63.27%, an increase of 2.27%, and the ABS operating rate was 62.60%, a decrease of 4.50% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton. The basis was 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 587,900 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons month - on - month, and the trader inventory was 56,300 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% month - on - month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 149 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 9103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 499,700 tons, a decrease of 96,500 tons month - on - month, the trader inventory was 177,800 tons, a decrease of 15,840 tons month - on - month, and the port inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% month - on - month. The LL - PP spread was - 489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 140 yuan, reported at 9700 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 18 yuan (+ 20). The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month. Some plants restarted or shut down. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 311,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28,000 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 4.8 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 120 US dollars (- 11), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 364 US dollars (- 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 84 yuan, reported at 6684 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+ 4). The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The social inventory on March 27 was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons month - on - month. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 321 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 141 yuan, reported at 5218 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 116 yuan (- 9). The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The import arrival forecast was 117,000 tons, and the East China departure on March 30 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.075 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons month - on - month. The naphtha - based production profit was - 3137 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2727 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1176 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1500 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price rebounded to 690 yuan [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - The supply of raw materials in Southeast Asian producing areas is at a low level throughout the year, and the shortage is extreme. The price of glue water has been continuously pushed up in the short term. The tapping rhythm in Yunnan, China, is normal, but the amount of new rubber in the initial stage is limited, and the global supply shortage cannot be alleviated in the short term. The upstream cost supports stock prices. However, as time goes by, the supply pressure will gradually appear. On the demand side, there is still moderate restocking imagination for some agents of un - price - increased brands at the end of the month, and the overall shipment is still supported to a certain extent. However, the terminal demand has no obvious positive guidance, and the market continues to digest inventory. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate in a narrow range, with an expected operating range of 15,500 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of the US - Iran conflict [1]. Crude Oil Industry - The control of the Strait of Hormuz and the security of the energy supply chain have not been alleviated. With the participation of the Houthi armed forces, the conflict has spread to the Red Sea and the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait. The main line of oil prices is geopolitical support + policy suppression. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on whether there is substantial progress in the negotiation and whether the Mandeb Strait will be blocked. If the situation continues to deteriorate or there are new variables, the crude oil supply will be in a substantial shortage in the near future, and the crude oil still has the momentum to continue to rise. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the suppression of global inflation and the economy by high oil prices, the acceleration of energy substitution, and the continuous uncertainty brought about by geopolitical conflicts [2]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures opened higher and fell slightly at the end of the session. The spot was purchased on demand. The core driver of the current market comes from the supply gap caused by the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The downstream demand is resilient, and the valuation is low globally. The export volume has increased, and the domestic and foreign prices have risen synchronously. On the supply side, the profit of coal - to - methanol remains good, but there are slightly more unexpected overhauls recently. In the port market, the geopolitical conflict in Iran has escalated again, and there are doubts about the recovery of shipping capacity. The port inventory is expected to decline significantly for the 05 contract. On the demand side, the downstream olefins are driven by the rising oil price, the profit of the inland coal - integrated plant has strengthened, and the demand for MTO in the port also has a warming expectation. Overall, the fundamentals of methanol have improved, but in a high - volatility market environment, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the risk of sharp unilateral fluctuations and the callback risk brought about by the easing of the geopolitical situation [9]. Urea Industry - On the 30th, the urea futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price remained stable. Some urea plants were shut down briefly this week, and the supply decreased slightly. Driven by the previous buying sentiment, the urea inventory was at a relatively low level, which supported the price. However, the supply pattern was still loose, and the daily output of the industry was at a high level of 21 - 220,000 tons. Coupled with the continuous release of reserve supplies, the market supply was still abundant. On the demand side, the agricultural demand entered the connection gap period and gradually weakened. The industrial downstream procurement was mostly cautious and purchased on demand. The overall demand was relatively flat. The market lacked a clear driving force for rise or fall, and it was expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract should focus on the range of 1,830 - 1,900, and pay attention to the progress of downstream demand and policy dynamics [4]. Caustic Soda and PVC Industry - **Caustic Soda**: On the 30th, the caustic soda futures fell sharply, and the spot price remained stable. The supply of caustic soda increased slightly this week, the number of overhaul devices was small, the industry's operating rate increased, and the profit increased significantly. The chlor - alkali enterprises actively increased the device load, and the inventory accumulated. The price of liquid chlorine also rose synchronously. The previous bullish sentiment in exports ebbed, which led to a sharp correction in the market, and negative sentiment gradually emerged. The operating rate of downstream alumina manufacturers has gradually increased, and the non - aluminum demand has improved, but the overall supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is still weak. After the sentiment ebbs, the market has declined. Without other driving factors, it is expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cost support below [5]. - **PVC**: On the 30th, the PVC futures oscillated weakly, and the spot market maintained a weak range oscillation. There is no demand gap in Asia, especially in the Asian region. Affected by the large number of low - price exports in the early stage and the wait - and - see sentiment of foreign customers towards high prices, the recent export demand has been poor. The supply - demand contradiction in the domestic market has not been prominent. The non - cost - driven price increase resistance caused by the geopolitical influence in the early stage is relatively large, and the high - price sales of spot goods are difficult. The chemical sentiment has faded, and the PVC price has adjusted accordingly. Overall, the fundamentals of PVC have improved slightly, and the cost side has a large price increase. The price bottom has strong support. Affected by the ebb of the chemical commodity sentiment, it may be weakly adjusted in the short term. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual shutdown rhythm of the devices [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The spot price is mainly stable, and the transaction is average. On the supply side, many production lines were shut down for overhaul last week, and the overall supply decreased slightly. It is expected that the production lines will resume this week, and the load will increase. On the demand side, the downstream still purchases on a rigid - demand basis. The float glass is continuously reducing production capacity, and many production lines of photovoltaic glass were shut down last week, showing an overall weak trend. In terms of inventory, the in - plant inventory is basically the same as the previous period, and the de - stocking intensity has weakened. In terms of cost and profit, the profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) has decreased, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method has been slightly adjusted. As the spring plowing gradually ends, the profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) is expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is strengthened. At the same time, with the strong support of the current spot cost, it is expected that the soda ash will generally oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and take profit on the 5 - 9 reverse spread [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market has average trading, and the spot price is mainly stable. On the supply side, a 600 - ton production line in Guizhou was shut down over the weekend, and it is expected that there will still be production lines for cold repair this week, and the output will continue to decline. On the demand side, the demand for deep - processing and low - e glass remains weak, and the downstream purchases as needed. In terms of inventory, the in - plant inventory is high year - on - year, and the enterprises have great pressure to de - stock. The fundamentals of supply and demand are weak. At the same time, the glass is currently close to par, and the support of FG605 at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range of about 1,030 is strong. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the future. If there is no improvement in downstream demand or de - stocking intensity, the price may decline further. Attention can be paid to the inventory and warehouse receipts, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The start - up of some Asian refineries has been substantially affected, the load of some domestic and foreign refineries has decreased, and combined with the planned overhaul of some devices, the supply of pure benzene is expected to decline. The prices of downstream products have risen actively, and the load has been maintained, so the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene has improved. It is reported that the United States intends to negotiate with Iran, but Iran is still tough, and it is expected that there will still be repetitions. The oil price fluctuates greatly at a high level. In the short term, pure benzene may fluctuate with the oil price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Strategically, it is recommended to wait and see, and shrink the spread between EB05 and BZ05 (currently 1,727) when it is high [7]. - **Styrene**: A set of devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical's overhaul has been postponed, and Ningxia Baofeng has restarted. Currently, the overall supply is maintained. On the demand side, although the downstream load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, the downstream has a strong resistance to high prices, and PS factories plan to reduce the load, and the high - price procurement is weak. The supply - demand of styrene has weakened month - on - month, but with the previous export shipments, the supply - demand of styrene is still tight. Recently, due to the reduction of supply caused by the reduction of refinery load, the price of raw material ethylene has risen sharply, and the profit of styrene has been continuously compressed. In the short term, the absolute price of styrene fluctuates with the oil price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Strategically, it is the same as for pure benzene [7]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: As the Strait blockade time prolongs, the risk of raw material supply interruption for PX factories in Asia is increasing. Some refineries in other Asian countries have continued to reduce their loads, but some domestic devices have postponed their overhauls due to sufficient raw materials. Relatively speaking, the risk of supply interruption in China is slightly smaller. The downstream polyester has difficulty in cost transmission under high raw material prices, and some polyester factories have implemented production cuts with increasing intensity. In the short term, the supply and demand of PX are both weak, but the overall supply - demand expectation of PX in April is tight. Coupled with the current low valuation and the continuous geopolitical situation, the PX price still has support. Strategically, it is recommended to go long at a low position and pay attention to the oil price trend [11]. - **PTA**: Although the interruption of crude oil supply in the Middle East has had a substantial impact on Asian PX factories, the overall load of PTA has been maintained. However, affected by the high - price raw materials, the downstream polyester production and sales have been poor. In April, PTA is expected to have an inventory build - up, and the basis has been weak recently. The downstream cost transmission is not smooth, and some polyester factories have implemented production cuts with increasing intensity, and the demand side may drag down the raw materials. Overall, PTA has limited self - driving force in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. Strategically, it is the same as for PX, and attention should be paid to the oil price trend [11]. - **MEG**: In the second quarter, the impact of the Middle East situation on ethylene glycol will continue to ferment, and the cost support of ethylene glycol is still strong. From the perspective of supply and demand, under the influence of the Middle East conflict, the main contradiction in the fundamentals in the second quarter is the significant decline in the domestic and foreign ethylene glycol supply. Many oil - based ethylene glycol devices have reduced their loads, and the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has decreased significantly in the second quarter. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly affects the transportation of goods from Iran, Kuwait, and the east coast of Saudi Arabia, so the import volume is expected to decline significantly in the second quarter, and the port inventory will enter the de - stocking channel. The de - stocking amplitude of ethylene glycol social inventory in the second quarter is considerable. Driven by the Middle East situation, the ethylene glycol price still has the momentum to rise in the second quarter. Strategically, before the restoration of oil transportation in the Middle East, EG still has the momentum to rise, but the market fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. It is recommended to buy EG call options lightly at a low position [11]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term supply - demand of short - fiber has weakened month - on - month due to the increase in supply. The Middle East situation is repeated, the oil price remains high, the terminal is reluctant to follow the price increase, and the direct - spinning polyester short - fiber market is in a tug - of - war. The market is cautious and wait - and - see at a high level, and some short - fiber factories and downstream have the intention to moderately reduce production. In the short term, the short - fiber has weak self - driving force and mainly fluctuates with the raw materials. Attention should be paid to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission. Strategically, it is the same as for PX; when the PF disk processing fee is below 800, it is recommended to expand the spread [11]. - **Bottle - chip**: In April, with the warming of the weather and the limited long - term procurement of the downstream at the end of the first quarter this year, the demand is expected to increase in April. It is expected that there will be high - price rigid - demand restocking or concentrated low - price procurement of bottle - chips by the downstream. At the same time, affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, the supply of polyester raw materials is in short supply, and it is expected that the cost of crude oil and polyester raw materials will remain high in April, and the supply of bottle - chips is limited. Therefore, the supply - demand of bottle - chips in April is expected to be tight, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. Strategically, the unilateral operation of PR is the same as for PTA; it is expected that the processing fee of the PR main contract disk will be strong, and it is recommended to buy PR call options lightly at a low position [11]. Polyolefin Industry - The prices of LLDPE and PP futures fell on the 30th. The upstream price was inverted, the market was priced by futures - spot traders, and the basis strengthened slightly passively. The trading on Monday was generally neutral. LLDPE and PP continue to have a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand. PP is de - stocking, and PE inventory is accumulating. Dynamically, the supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, expected decline in imports, and increase in exports makes the end - of - contract inventory of the 05 contract at a low level. Geopolitical premium and cost support, as well as the reduction in the supply side, still dominate. In April, refineries have shifted from preventive production cuts to substantial production cuts, and raw material interruption and high - price procurement have pushed up costs. The domestic device overhauls and the contraction of overseas imports have further solidified the already tight supply pattern. The core is the underlying logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" that dominates the pricing power. It is expected that the spot will tighten and the basis will strengthen in April [12]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex decreased by 0.30% to 16,350 yuan/ton; the full - latex basis decreased by 80 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton; the price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 0.64% to 15,800 yuan/ton; the non - standard price difference increased by 8.64% to - 740 yuan/ton; the FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 1.28% to 20.50 Thai baht/kg; the FOB intermediate price of glue water in the international market increased by 2.58% to 79.50; the price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna Prefecture increased by 1.49% to 13,600 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue water in Xishuangbanna Prefecture increased by 2.07% to 14,800 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.61% to - 745 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.94% to 770 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 44.44% to - 55 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, Thailand's production increased by 11.09% to 549.00 (unit not specified); Indonesia's production decreased by 14.90% to 161.10 (ten tons); India's production decreased by 3.48% to 108.10; in December, China's production decreased by 84.50 to 51.20; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles decreased slightly to 78.24%; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires for automobiles increased slightly to 70.75%; in December, the domestic tire production increased by 4.65% to 10,656.3; in February, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 12.40% to 5,607.0 (ten thousand pieces); in February, the total import volume of natural rubber decreased by 28.46% to 46.15; in February, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) decreased by 25.00% to 60.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PVC: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, which affects the prices of oil and chemical products [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations, and their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated below the 5 - day moving average. The circulation volume in the northern mainstream propylene market increased temporarily, and downstream enterprises' resistance to receiving goods remained unchanged, with a cautious trading atmosphere [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures showed a relatively strong consolidation. For polyethylene, the cost was supported by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the supply side provided support. The demand side was in the spring plowing season, but the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited. For polypropylene, the upstream refineries' ex - factory prices remained high, the middlemen actively sold goods, but the high - price transaction pressure was prominent, and the downstream's enthusiasm and willingness to start work were weak [2] Polyester - Affected by the situation between the US and Iran, oil prices were strong, and PX and PTA prices fluctuated. The overall single - side trend was dominated by energy and closely related to the Middle East situation. PTA was dragged down by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [3] - Ethylene glycol's load decreased slightly, the port inventory increased, and the downstream recovery was slow. There was an expectation of tight supply due to the un - recovered external supply of Middle East energy chemical products [3] - Short fiber's load increased weekly, the downstream weaving's load increase slowed down, and new orders were not negotiated smoothly. The market was mainly affected by the Middle East situation and followed the raw material fluctuations [3] - Bottle chip's efficiency was good, the load increased significantly last week, the price was under pressure, and the monthly spread continued to weaken. The load decreased slightly in the new period [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene futures contract rose significantly. The domestic pure benzene's starting load decreased, downstream consumption increased, and the port inventory continued to decrease. The import volume was expected to decrease, and the East China port was expected to continue destocking [5] - The styrene futures contract rose significantly. The sharp rise in the pure benzene price provided strong support from the cost side. The production of styrene might increase slightly, the inventory might continue to decline, and the demand side was expected to weaken slowly [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures rose strongly. The import volume decreased, the MTO start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased, and the East China port continued to destock. The domestic methanol plant's start - up increased, the profit of inland olefin enterprises continued to rise, and the downstream plant's start - up load increased. The supply - demand situation was expected to be strong [6] - The urea futures continued to consolidate at a high level. The domestic output decreased slightly, the agricultural fertilizer demand declined, the start - up of industrial compound fertilizer and melamine plants increased, and the urea production enterprises continued to destock. The urea market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The overall supply increased slightly, the downstream procurement was poor, the inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased seasonally but was still at a relatively low level compared with history. The export was expected to improve from March to April [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. The liquid caustic soda inventory increased, the chlor - alkali profit continued to rise, the industry's capacity utilization rate increased, the high - strength caustic soda had good support from export orders, and the downstream alumina production was stable, but the downstream traders' enthusiasm for purchasing decreased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated. The industry inventory increased, the maintenance increased this week, the start - up and weekly production decreased, the rigid demand for float glass was stable, the photovoltaic glass had a serious oversupply, and there was a trend of cold repair and production reduction, which was expected to drag down the demand for soda ash [8] - Glass fluctuated. The industry continued to destock, but the intensity slowed down, the inventory pressure in the middle and upper reaches was large, and the downstream was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The production capacity fluctuated slightly, and the glass futures price was expected to fluctuate widely within a range [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades in the Platts market before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, consider that it already includes the current geopolitical premium, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, expect high production in the first quarter. With supply and demand both strong, suggest short - selling at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market is volatile. Suggest flexible trading, gradually taking profits on butadiene rubber, and holding the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [10][13]. - For PVC, in the short term, the price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to geopolitical conflicts, suggest staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired and the market is volatile [20]. - For polyethylene, after the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline, and it will enter a de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 12.40 yuan/barrel, or 1.70%, to 740.80 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 118.00 yuan/ton, or 2.72%, to 4464.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 140.00 yuan/ton, or 2.79%, to 5157.00 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 130.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3296 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 89 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, etc. remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1877 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil declined, RU rebounded. Butadiene was strong. Butadiene rubber production lines had heavy losses and reduced production. The price had room for repair. The overall market changed rapidly [10]. - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly, gradually take profits on butadiene rubber, and hold the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 35 yuan to 5615 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5450 (- 50) yuan/ton. The basis was - 165 (- 15) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 110 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.9%, with an increase of 0.8%. Downstream demand was gradually recovering [15]. - **Strategy**: The price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price remained unchanged. The basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene fell, and the futures price rose. The basis weakened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the supply was relatively abundant [19]. - **Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines due to geopolitical impacts and market volatility [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8868 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 268 yuan/ton, weakening by 101 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41%. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% [22]. - **Strategy**: After the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9313 yuan/ton, up 193 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 163 yuan/ton, weakening by 143 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72%. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 142 yuan to 9916 yuan. The 5 - 7 spread was - 42 (- 54) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6%; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1%. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 2.8 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of February increased by 16 tons month - on - month [28]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline further, enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 98 yuan to 6876 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 120 (+ 20) yuan. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 tons. The processing fee on the disk rose 5 yuan to 371 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 221 yuan to 5279 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 146 (+ 81) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The port inventory increased by 2.8 tons to 103.9 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, short at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, trade flexibly according to the market, gradually take profit on butadiene rubber, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10][12]. - For PVC, expect prices to rise in the short term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, stay on the sidelines due to large geopolitical impacts on the market [19]. - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessel passages through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production mismatch [25]. - For PX, expect the valuation to rise as the raw material shortage logic intensifies, but be cautious of large short - term increases [28]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [31]. - For ethylene glycol, expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to de - stock, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 5.90 yuan/barrel, or 0.81%, to 733.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.18%, to 4393.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 69.00 yuan/ton, or 1.34%, to 5066.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 145.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3202 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by - 194 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, others remained unchanged; the main contract changed by 12 yuan/ton, reported at 1875 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 15 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil fell, RU rebounded. Butadiene was strong due to import demand from Japan and South Korea. Butadiene rubber production lines had serious losses, reducing the operating rate. The overall market changed rapidly, with different views on the rise and fall [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly according to the market, gradually take profit on butadiene rubber, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 150 yuan to 5703 yuan, the cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials changed, the overall operating rate decreased, the downstream operating rate increased, and both factory and social inventories decreased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect prices to rise in the short term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene remained unchanged, the basis decreased; the spot and futures prices of styrene fell, the basis weakened. The upstream operating rate decreased, the port inventory increased, and the demand - side operating rate increased [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stay on the sidelines due to large geopolitical impacts on the market [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract price rose 52 yuan/ton to 8767 yuan/ton, the spot price rose 100 yuan/ton, the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate decreased, both production enterprise and trader inventories increased, the downstream operating rate increased, and the LL5 - 9 spread decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessel passages through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract price rose 145 yuan/ton to 9120 yuan/ton, the spot price rose 125 yuan/ton, the basis weakened. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased, the downstream operating rate increased, and the LL - PP and PP5 - 9 spreads decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 272 yuan to 9774 yuan, the 5 - 7 spread decreased. The PX load in China and Asia decreased, some devices restarted or shut down, the PTA load increased, imports from South Korea decreased, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the valuation to rise as the raw material shortage logic intensifies, but be cautious of large short - term increases [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 186 yuan to 6778 yuan, the 5 - 9 spread decreased. The PTA load increased, the downstream load decreased, and the social inventory was 285.4 tons on March 6th. The processing fee rose by 7 yuan to 366 yuan [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 22 yuan to 5058 yuan, the 5 - 9 spread decreased. The supply - side load decreased, the downstream load decreased, imports were expected to be 11.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.8 tons. The cost of raw materials changed, and the profit of different production methods varied [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to de - stock, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Rubber Industry - The market sentiment has eased with the expectation of a cease - fire and peace talks between the US and Iran, leading to a halt in the decline and a rebound in rubber prices. However, as the domestic rubber - producing areas are fully tapped, supply pressure will gradually dominate the market, and rubber prices are expected to remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran conflict [2][4]. Urea Industry - The urea futures market is volatile, and the spot price has risen slightly. The current situation of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term, and the spot market deviates from the futures. The supply remains in a loose pattern, and demand is generally cautious. Policy factors suppress prices, and the short - term rise in futures driven by emotions cannot be transmitted to the spot market. The urea market is highly volatile in the short term due to the expected escalation of the Middle East conflict [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - For caustic soda, the supply has further decreased this week, the profit has increased significantly, and the export expectation is high. Although the downstream demand has improved, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak. The price has been affected by the Middle East conflict and has fluctuated sharply, and it has fallen recently as the market sentiment has ebbed. For PVC, the futures price has weakened, and the spot price has retreated from a high level. The ethylene - based PVC has a rising trend driven by cost, while the calcium - carbide - based PVC has insufficient upward momentum. The overall market price is likely to be difficult to fall, but regional trends and raw material prices should be carefully observed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has shrunk, and the demand is weak. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the market is expected to be a game between supply - demand fundamentals and cost support, with a weak and volatile trend. For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The weekly output has shown a declining trend due to equipment maintenance, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is also expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, some Asian refineries' operations are affected, and the supply is expected to decline. The downstream product prices are rising, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. However, the short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices, and it may fluctuate with oil prices. For styrene, the overall supply is expected to remain stable, and the supply - demand situation is still tight. The profit has been continuously compressed due to the sharp rise in raw material ethylene prices, and the absolute price also fluctuates with oil prices [8]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market is highly volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply side shows an increase in domestic production and a possible decrease in imports. The demand side has a warming expectation for MTO demand in ports. Currently, the decrease in imports dominates the market, but the sustainability of demand and policy risks should be noted [9]. LPG Industry - No specific core view is provided in the report, but price and inventory data show that LPG prices have fallen, and the inventory of refineries and ports has increased. The upstream refinery operating rate has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has increased [10]. Crude Oil Industry - The current conflict in the Middle East has entered the fourth week, and the focus is on the control of the Strait of Hormuz and energy supply chain security. The market sentiment has eased, but there are doubts about the negotiation and cease - fire. The oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, mainly supported by geopolitics and suppressed by policies. Short - term attention should be paid to the actual通航 recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of negotiations [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to decrease further, and the downstream polyester has a cost - transmission problem, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices. For PTA, there is an inventory - accumulation expectation, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply has decreased significantly, and the price has the momentum to rise. For short - fiber, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. For bottle - chips, the supply is expected to be tight, and the processing fee of the main contract is expected to be strong [13]. Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the expectation of possible negotiations between the US and Iran, the polyolefin futures market has fallen significantly, and the basis has strengthened passively. The current fundamentals are based on the logic of "strong cost and reduced supply", but the downstream demand is limited. The unilateral price fluctuates greatly, and long - positions can be reduced [14]. 3. Summary by Directory Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various rubber products have shown different degrees of changes, such as the increase in the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex and the decrease in the price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna. The basis of some products has also changed [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the change in the 9 - 1 spread and the 1 - 5 spread [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in different countries and regions in different months has changed, and the operating rates of tire enterprises and the production and export volume of tires have also fluctuated. The inventory of rubber in bonded areas and warehouses has also shown different trends [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of urea futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [5]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of some upstream raw materials have changed slightly, such as the increase in the price of动力煤 in Yijinhuoluo Banner [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot prices of urea in different regions have shown different trends, with some prices rising slightly [5]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea has decreased, the inventory of enterprises and ports has decreased, and the order days of production enterprises have increased [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products in the spot and futures markets have changed, with some prices rising and some falling [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have increased [6]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have decreased, and the profits of different production methods have changed [6]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC in factories and society have decreased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of glass and soda ash products have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads changing [7]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The daily melting volume of glass has decreased, and the weekly production of soda ash has increased slightly [7]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of glass and soda ash in factories have decreased, and the inventory days of glass factories' soda ash have increased [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in real - estate data such as new construction area, sales area, and construction area have shown different trends [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and related products have also changed [8]. - **Benzene - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of benzene - styrene products in the spot and futures markets have changed [8]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products of pure benzene and styrene have changed [8]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports have changed, and the operating rates of related industries in the产业链 have also changed [8]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of methanol futures contracts and spot prices have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads narrowing [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of methanol in enterprises and ports have decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol have changed, with the operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises increasing and the operating rate of some downstream industries also changing [9]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **LPG Outer - Market Prices**: The outer - market prices of LPG have increased [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of LPG in refineries and ports have increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil products such as Brent, WTI, and SC have changed, and the spreads between different contracts and different crude oil varieties have also changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products and the spreads between different contracts have changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed, with some prices falling and some cash flows improving [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX products have changed, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA products have changed, and there is an inventory - accumulation expectation [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG products have changed, and the supply has decreased significantly [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts have fallen [14]. - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of polyolefin products have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of PE and PP have changed [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of PE and PP in enterprises and society have decreased [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it has fully included the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, with a strong expectation of high first - quarter production, although there are still positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Suggest short - selling at high prices and expect short - term demand support when the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market fluctuates greatly. Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations. Allocate out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, in the short - term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will rise mainly, but beware of risks due to large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, suggest empty - position waiting and watching [19]. - For polyethylene, wait for the increase in the number of vessel passages in the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production - mismatch - driven [24]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline further, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but beware of short - term over - increases [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of short - term over - increases [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation is at a historical low, but beware of short - term over - increases [32]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogues Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 66.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 8.20%, at 739.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 350.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.09%, at 4590.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 520.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.93%, at 5301.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (96.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3139 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 43 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: It has fully included the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 20 yuan/ton, and Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton; others remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 24 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 43 yuan/ton, reported at 1884 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: With a strong expectation of high first - quarter production, although there are still positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Suggest short - selling at high prices and expect short - term demand support when the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene rubber rose sharply, while stock - market and economy - sensitive commodities fell. The overall market changed rapidly. The reasons for the rise were macro - bullish expectations and seasonal expectations, while the reasons for the fall were weak demand. As of March 19, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still suspended. As of March 15, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.49 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 tons, a decline of 1.13%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 92.1 tons, a decrease of 1.34%. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 tons to 69.21 tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15250 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1945 (+10) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1945 (+5) US dollars, Shandong butadiene was 17500 (+2000) yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 17900 (+1700) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 16300 (+1200) yuan. The Asian butadiene operating rate decreased, and supply decreased, with butadiene expected to be strong [9][10][11]. - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly. Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations. Allocate out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 398 yuan, reported at 5853 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5860 (-160) yuan/ton, the basis was 7 (+238) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 87 (-51) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide in Wuhai was quoted at 2735 (+85) yuan/ton, semi - coke medium - sized material price was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1450 (+25) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda spot was 726 (+18) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; among them, the calcium - carbide method was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the ethylene method was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. The in - factory inventory was 36.5 tons (-1.2), and the social inventory was 137.1 tons (-3.6) [14]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will rise mainly, but beware of risks due to large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan/ton; the pure benzene active contract closing price was 8501 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was 134 yuan/ton, an increase of 364 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 11100 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton; the styrene active contract closing price was 10242 yuan/ton, a decrease of 828 yuan/ton; the basis was 858 yuan/ton, an increase of 1628 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 47.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 202.65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 286.4 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.46%, a decrease of 1.33%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 16.25 tons, an increase of 0.60 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.93%, an increase of 0.60%. The PS operating rate was 51.60%, a decrease of 0.10%; the EPS operating rate was 61.00%, an increase of 3.22%; the ABS operating rate was 67.10%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Strategy**: Due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, suggest empty - position waiting and watching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8918 yuan/ton, a decrease of 605 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 580 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 56.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71 tons; the trader inventory was 5.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 182 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the increase in the number of vessel passages in the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 9114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 679 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was 136 yuan/ton, an increase of 654 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 59.62 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14 tons; the trader inventory was 19.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.244 tons; the port inventory was 7.19 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The LL - PP spread was - 196 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 74 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 334 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 165 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production - mismatch - driven [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 682 yuan, reported at 9708 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 40 (-74) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The restart of Daxie was postponed, Zhejiang Petrochemical stopped production, and the Kuwaiti overseas device stopped production. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. Fuhai Chuang and Fujian Baihong reduced their loads, Jiaxing Petrochemical resumed after a short - stop, Yisheng New Materials planned to reduce its load, and Yihua restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 31.1 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of March, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 480 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 113 US dollars (+32), South Korea's PX - MX was 91 US dollars (+4), and the naphtha cracking spread was 485 US dollars (+110) [26]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline further, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but beware of short - term over - increases [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 440 yuan, reported at 6694 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 110 (-78) yuan. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. Fuhai Chuang and Fujian Baihong reduced their loads, Jiaxing Petrochemical resumed after a short - stop, Yisheng New Materials planned to reduce its load, and Yihua restarted. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 tons. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 326 yuan [29]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of short - term over - increases [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 455 yuan, reported at 5119 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 82 (-68) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%, among which the syngas - made was 72.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%; the ethylene - made load was 63.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. One line of Zhongkun was under maintenance; in the oil - chemical sector, Fulei and Hainan Refining and Chemical reduced their loads, while Zhejiang Petrochemical and Satellite increased their loads. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 tons, and the East China departure on March 23 was 1.12 tons. The port inventory was 103.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - made profit was - 3074 yuan, the domestic ethylene - made profit was - 2434 yuan, and the coal - made profit was 1310 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1450 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam - coal price rebounded to 640 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation is at a historical low, but beware of short - term over - increases [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily market information and strategy recommendations for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, methanol, urea, rubber, PVC, pure benzene & styrene, polyethylene, polypropylene, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol [2][3][6]. - Due to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, it has a significant impact on the supply and price trends of energy and chemical products [18][21]. - Different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 38.50 yuan/barrel, or 5.41%, to 750.80 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil; before the mid - year production increase in Libya, widen the price difference between different crude oil varieties at low prices; short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil; short the INE - Brent cross - region spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (43.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3132 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 11 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Since methanol already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits at high prices [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Shanxi it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 19 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by - 18 yuan/ton, reported at 1841 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With a high expectation of the first - quarter production peak, although there are still positive expectations for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Consider short - selling at high prices. When the alternative valuation of urea reaches the limit, there may be short - term positive support for demand [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Concerns about the economic outlook due to the Middle East situation led to a decline in the stock market and sensitive commodities. As of March 19, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, and that of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%. China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.13% [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market fluctuates greatly, so trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. Below 16,700 for RU, it has turned bearish technically. Consider allocating out - of - the - money call options for butadiene rubber. Continue to hold the position of buying the main NR contract and short - selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 15 yuan to 5875 yuan. The overall operating rate was 80.1%, with the calcium carbide method at 84.7% and the ethylene method at 69.2%. Factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (- 1.2), and social inventory was 137.1 million tons (- 3.6) [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises has rebounded to a high level. Although there is an expectation of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance, and domestic demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, and there is an expectation of overseas production cuts, the short - term trend is upward before the Iranian issue is resolved, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [14][15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and its futures price also remained unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, while the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate was 70.46%, down 1.33%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.60 million tons [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The supply is still relatively abundant, and the port inventory is continuously increasing. It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8818 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.37%, up 0.39%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.71 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 0.48 million tons [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price fell. The PE valuation still has downward space. After the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9019 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.5%, up 0.17%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 6.14 million tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.244 million tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price fell. The supply pressure will be alleviated in the first half of 2026. The downstream operating rate rebounds seasonally. The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 232 yuan to 9682 yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84.6%, down 0.1%, and the Asian load was 74.8%, down 2.1%. The inventory decreased by 1 million tons month - on - month at the end of January [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The PX load is expected to further decline, and the downstream PTA load is expected to rise. PX will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle in March. The valuation is currently moderately low, and it is expected to increase, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 184 yuan to 6650 yuan. The PTA load was 80.8%, up 3.5%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased by 2.6 million tons on March 6. The on - disk processing fee fell 32 yuan to 298 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is difficult for PTA to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 133 yuan to 5353 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 66.5%, down 0.3%. Port inventory decreased by 5.7 million tons [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Overseas plant maintenance volume has increased significantly, and domestic plants are gradually entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to continue to decline, and imports are expected to decrease significantly from March. The port inventory will gradually shift to de - stocking. The current oil - chemical profit has dropped to a historical low level, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].