2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲击50新高 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 6 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 8 | | 锡：加速上行 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：冲击 50 新高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪 ...

Group 1 - The normalization of diplomatic relations between South Korea and Japan marks its 60th anniversary, with both countries emphasizing the importance of stable relations amid current international challenges [1][2] - Both nations have established dedicated entry lanes at airports to facilitate travel and enhance mutual understanding [1] - Former Japanese Prime Ministers expressed the significance of the 60-year relationship, highlighting the need for cooperation in the face of shared challenges [1][2] Group 2 - The relationship between South Korea and Japan has historically oscillated between conflict and cooperation, with recent years witnessing significant tensions due to historical grievances [2][3] - The deterioration of relations was exacerbated by a 2018 South Korean Supreme Court ruling demanding compensation from Japanese companies for wartime labor, which Japan disputes based on a 1965 agreement [3][4][5] - The political landscape shifted with the election of conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol in 2022, leading to a thaw in relations as he sought to improve ties with Japan [2][3][5] Group 3 - Under Yoon's administration, there has been a notable shift towards a more pro-Japan stance, with discussions of a "Grand Bargain" that links historical issues with security and trade cooperation [9][10][12] - Recent agreements have included the restoration of military intelligence sharing and the establishment of economic cooperation mechanisms, indicating a significant diplomatic turnaround [12][14] - However, public sentiment in South Korea remains mixed, with a significant portion of the population opposing the government's approach to historical issues [15][19] Group 4 - The political dynamics in both countries are fragile, with potential shifts in leadership impacting the future of bilateral relations [19][20] - The recent election of a progressive president in South Korea could lead to a reevaluation of the current diplomatic approach, raising concerns about a return to previous tensions [19][20] - The ongoing historical disputes, particularly regarding wartime labor and comfort women, continue to pose challenges for sustained cooperation [5][19][20]