据蒙古央行1月6日消息，2025年12月蒙古官方外汇储备达到70.05亿美元，环比增长19%，创历史新 高。2025年第四季度大宗商品出口增加，特别是铜和黄金价格处于历史高位，系推动外汇储备大幅增长 主要原因。 ...

格隆汇12月18日｜随着黄金价格持续迅猛上涨，且尽管部分地区钢铁产量下滑但铁矿石价格保持坚挺， 澳大利亚上调了大宗商品出口收入预测。澳大利亚政府在其《资源与能源季度报告》中表示，截至2026 年6月的一年内，预计所有原材料出口额将达到3830亿澳元（约合2530亿美元），较三个月前的预测高 出近4%。对随后12个月的预测则上调了200亿澳元，至3740亿澳元。报告称，澳大利亚资源和能源大宗 商品的总体出口前景已显著改善。黄金出口正在快速增长，铁矿石出口表现好于预期，同时澳元兑美元 的汇率并未如预期般上涨。报告预测，随着新供应进入市场以及钢铁需求减弱，铁矿石价格到2027年将 仅会逐步下降。基准价格预计在2026年平均为每吨85美元，2027年平均为每吨82美元，低于2024年的每 吨93美元。黄金预计将在本财年超过液化天然气，成为澳大利亚第二大最有价值的出口商品，其价格可 能保持坚挺。澳政府表示，截至6月的一年内，国内黄金产量预计将增长16%，达到约340吨。 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading at approximately 0.6594 against the US dollar, showing a slight increase of 0.04% from the previous close of 0.6591 [1] - Australia ranks 11th globally in GDP, yet the AUD is the 6th most traded currency, indicating its significant position in the global forex market [1] - The AUD is the only currency among the top ten in trading volume that operates under a fully floating exchange rate regime while having substantial market influence [1] Group 2 - The AUD's exchange rate is closely linked to commodity exports, making it highly sensitive to global economic growth [1] - Investors often use AUD assets to express risk appetite, allowing for both long positions in optimistic markets and short positions to hedge against risks during market turmoil [1] - Australia has the fourth-largest retirement savings assets globally, amounting to 150% of its GDP, with expectations that this will rise to 180% of GDP in the next decade [1] Group 3 - The key support level for AUD/USD is at the August low of 0.6414, followed by the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6393 and the June low at 0.6372 [2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 66, indicating potential for further upward movement in the exchange rate [2] - The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at approximately 21, suggesting that while the current trend is moderate, it is beginning to gain momentum [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities for China's economy in 2025, particularly focusing on how to leverage exports to stimulate growth amidst a complex international environment. It highlights the resilience of China's industrial sector as reflected in the export data of bulk commodities and their downstream products in June [3]. Summary by Sections Bulk Commodity Exports - The export data for June shows a structural differentiation and trend adjustment in bulk commodities and their downstream products. While exports of manufactured goods like automobiles and ships remain strong, the photovoltaic industry is facing pressure [3]. - Key commodities such as flat glass, electrolytic aluminum, zinc ingots, lead ingots, nickel, and lithium carbonate, along with specific downstream products like compound fertilizers and solder, show good export sustainability [3]. June Export Data - The article provides detailed statistics on various commodities, indicating changes in exports for June compared to previous months and the first half of the year. For instance, PTA saw a decrease of 3.8% month-on-month and a significant drop of 39.9% year-on-year, while long lines experienced a 21.7% increase year-on-year [5]. - Notable increases include urea, which surged by 2658% month-on-month, and compound fertilizers, which rose by 62.9% month-on-month [5]. Specific Commodity Performance - The performance of specific commodities in June includes: - Automotive exports increased by 7.4% month-on-month and 22.2% year-on-year [7]. - Flat glass exports decreased by 25% month-on-month but increased by 87% year-on-year [8]. - The photovoltaic glass sector showed a 34% increase month-on-month and a 25% increase year-on-year [9]. - The article also notes that while some sectors like aluminum and copper faced declines, others like lithium carbonate and certain machinery categories showed resilience [8][9].