Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].

以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者紫金天风 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 2025年中国经济面临的关键考题之一，是如何在复杂国际环境下通过出口撬动增长引擎。作为国民经 济"压舱石"的大宗商品，其6月出口同环比数据不仅折射出全球产业链重构的微妙信号，更暗藏中国的 产业韧性。 最新数据显示，6月大宗商品及其下游出口呈现结构分化与趋势调整，比如汽车船舶等制成品出口同 比保持相对强势，但光伏产业链出口出现承压状态。 本次课题我们聚焦大宗商品出口持续性展开研究，系统梳理了各主要大宗商品及其核心下游出口的6 月环比，6月同比，1-6月累计同比等关键指标。 从我们统计的数据来看，平板玻璃、电解铝、锌锭、铅锭、镍、碳酸锂等品种及特定品种下游如复合 肥、焊锡等出口持续性较好。 | 板块 | 品种名/ | 6月环比 | 6月同比 | 1-6月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 核心下游 | | | 累计同比 | | | PTA | -3.8% | -39.9% | -16.9% | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector: The international raw sugar market is under pressure and may continue to fluctuate within a range. The domestic sugar market has a supply - demand gap, and the spot price is firm. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Paper pulp fundamentals change little, but may be driven by market sentiment. The global cotton market has a slight inventory build - up, and the domestic cotton market is in a game between supply tightening expectations and weak downstream consumption. The price increase is expected to slow down [3][4][6]. - Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector: Apple futures prices continue to oscillate at a high level, supported by overall commodity sentiment, the influence of the jujube market, and its own fundamentals. Jujube futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather during the fruit - setting period in the producing areas [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - Apple 2510: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The consumption is average, and the initial production estimate for the new season is better than before, putting pressure on the overall futures price. Support range is 7300 - 7350, and pressure range is 7900 - 8000 [17]. - Jujube 2601: Hold long positions. The overall commodity sentiment is strong, and in the third quarter, jujubes enter the production - forming period, and the price is likely to rise due to weather concerns. Support range is 10200 - 10400, and pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [17]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2509: Short - term band trading. Raw sugar has rebounded, the domestic spot price is firm, but import pressure restricts the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. Support range is 5750 - 5770, and pressure range is 5850 - 5870 [17]. - Pulp 2507: Temporarily wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, the finished paper price is weak, overseas prices are lowered, and the domestic re - inflation trading expectation is positive for pulp. Support range is 5000 - 5100, and pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [17]. - Cotton 2509: Hold long positions cautiously. The previous negative factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices affect the market. Support range is 13200 - 13300, and pressure range is 14400 - 14500 [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamentals**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 3.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 tons. As of July 17, it was 73.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.03 tons. The estimated national apple production is 3659.04 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.03%, but according to another estimate, the 2025 - 2026 production season shows a slight increase [18]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable. In the northwest production area, early - maturing varieties are on the market, and the price is high [19]. - **Jujube Market**: As of July 18, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. Affected by the rising futures price, the spot price in each sales area increased slightly. The market is in the off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Attention should be paid to the new - season production in the producing areas [20]. - **Sugar Market**: Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of July 2025 increased by 9.78% year - on - year. As of Tuesday morning, the spot price of Guangxi sugar - making enterprises decreased to 6010 - 6040 yuan/ton [22]. - **Pulp Market**: The demand is weak, the supplier's quotation is firm, the port inventory is high, and the downstream paper - making market is in the off - season. Arauco lowered the price of its Uruguayan factory's bleached broadleaf pulp by 10 dollars/ton to 490 dollars/ton [25]. - **Cotton Market**: In June 2025, Pakistan's textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year. China's cotton imports in June 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. As of July 15, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased [26][27]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: Apple 2510 closed at 7929, up 0.08%; Jujube 2509 closed at 9485, up 1.23%; Sugar 2509 closed at 5823, down 0.27%; Pulp 2509 closed at 5368, up 0.64%; Cotton 2509 closed at 14225, up 0.28% [27]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 3.90 yuan/jin, down 0.15 yuan month - on - month and 0.25 yuan year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year; sugar was 6050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 410 yuan year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 150 yuan year - on - year; cotton was 15549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan month - on - month and 193 yuan year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 10 - 1 spread is 126, unchanged month - on - month and up 41 year - on - year, expected to oscillate repeatedly, recommend waiting and seeing. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is - 1005, down 960 month - on - month and down 670 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, recommend waiting and seeing. - Sugar 9 - 1 spread is 170, up 1 month - on - month and down 83 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, recommend waiting and seeing [46]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujube: 8912 warehouse receipts, down 35 month - on - month and down 2808 year - on - year. - Sugar: 21359 warehouse receipts, down 78 month - on - month and up 5068 year - on - year. - Pulp: 255819 warehouse receipts, down 100 month - on - month and down 250723 year - on - year. - Cotton: 9436 warehouse receipts, down 65 month - on - month and down 2722 year - on - year [75]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Brazilian port congestion has reduced exports, and uneven rainfall in India threatens sugarcane yield. The news of Coca - Cola North America switching to sucrose has stimulated a rebound in raw sugar, but 350,000 tons of domestic imports have suppressed the domestic market, and the gradual listing of processed sugar has increased supply pressure [3]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is supported by post - pricing of textile enterprises and low inventories, with strong short - term performance due to capital inflows. However, the accumulation of downstream finished - product inventory during the off - season may limit the upside. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [16]. - **Red Dates**: The downstream is in the off - season, with light trading. Sufficient supply of old dates and potential repair of the expected production reduction in the production area may lead to weak and volatile prices. Monitor temperature changes and new jujube fruit setting [22]. - **Apples**: Seasonal fruits impact sales, and packaging is limited in Shandong due to the busy farming season. New - season early - maturing apples have the same opening prices as last year, with limited market impact due to low supply [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On July 18, 2025, SR01 closed at 5656 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.48%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - **Basis**: The basis between Nanning and various sugar futures contracts and between Kunming and various sugar futures contracts showed different degrees of decline on July 17, 2025 [11]. - **Import Prices and Profits**: Brazilian and Thai sugar import prices had different daily and weekly changes. The profit of Brazilian sugar on the futures market also showed seasonal characteristics [14][15]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13965 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04%, and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [17]. - **Spreads**: The cotton 01 - 05 spread was 35 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 5 yuan, and other spreads also showed different changes [18]. Red Dates - **Market Outlook**: The current downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the price may be weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to temperature changes and new jujube fruit - setting [22]. Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, AP01 closed at 7751 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.64%. Spot prices of different apple varieties remained unchanged [27]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The AP01 - 05 spread was - 45 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 4.65%. The disk profit was - 878 yuan with a daily increase of 5.66% [27].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guide companies to improve product quality, and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. This policy signal has led to a noticeable recovery in the sentiment of the bulk commodity market, with some investors anticipating market benefits similar to those from the supply-side structural reforms of 2016 [3][4]. Policy Impact Analysis - Different periods may have varying policy focuses, necessitating an in-depth analysis of the core impact range of policies. Attention should be directed towards industries with severe overcapacity, widespread losses, high proportions of outdated capacity, and strong policy constraints [4]. - Industries such as polysilicon, industrial silicon, and PVC currently exhibit persistently low profit levels, aligning with the main objectives of policy regulation. The sustainability of profit improvement in these industries hinges on the enforcement strength of policies and the effectiveness of actual capacity clearance [4][5]. Historical Context - The aluminum industry serves as an example where strong policy constraints successfully led to sustained profit improvements during the last capacity reduction phase. Historical experience indicates that there is a certain lag between policy issuance and market rebound, ultimately relying on strict enforcement to achieve profit redistribution within the industry chain [4]. Current Industry Status - Leading companies in industries like polysilicon are beginning to formulate capacity optimization plans. However, due to differences in company nature, interest conflicts, and market constraints, the realization of substantial capacity clearance in the industry will require more time for validation [5]. Profit and Capacity Overview - A summary of key indicators for various bulk commodities, including profit levels, capacity concentration, and the nature of enterprises, has been compiled for reference [6]. - For example, the profit margins and capacity concentration for several commodities are as follows: - PVC: -13% profit margin, 40% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Polysilicon: -13.5% profit margin, 82.23% capacity concentration, private enterprises [10] - Urea: 20% profit margin, 28% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Copper products show varying profit margins, with electrolytic copper at 0.31% and lithium battery copper foil at 26.07% [10].

Core Insights - The raw sugar market is experiencing wide fluctuations in prices, influenced by reduced sugar beet planting area in Germany and projected sugar production in India for the 2024/25 season [1] - The cotton market is facing a decline in global production, particularly in China and Australia, while demand shows signs of slowing down despite a year-on-year increase in retail [1] Sugar Market Analysis - Germany's sugar beet planting area for the 2025/26 season is down by 6.6% to approximately 408,500 hectares due to low EU sugar prices [1] - India's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 26.11 million tons, with ending stocks of 4.8 to 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic demand in late 2025 [1] - Domestic sugar prices in China range from 6,120 to 6,200 CNY/ton in Guangxi and 5,910 to 5,960 CNY/ton in Yunnan, with import prices estimated at 4,760 to 4,790 CNY/ton for quota imports and 6,060 to 6,090 CNY/ton for non-quota imports [1] - The total sugar production in Yunnan for the 2024/25 season is projected at 2.45 million tons, with a national production estimate of 11.2 million tons, slightly above the Ministry of Agriculture's forecast [1] - The import sugar profit window has opened, but pressure remains as prices are expected to gradually decline [1] Cotton Market Analysis - The USDA forecasts a year-on-year decline in global cotton production for the 2025/26 season, with significant reductions in China and Australia, while Brazil's production is expected to increase and the US remains stable [1] - Retail sales in April showed a year-on-year increase, but the growth rate is slowing, and textile companies' operating rates are stable month-on-month, indicating limited support from seasonal demand [1] - China's clothing export value decreased year-on-year in April, and US cotton imports are low [1] - Commercial cotton stocks have decreased month-on-month and are at a near historical low, while textile companies' finished goods inventory has started to decline [1] - The international market is currently dominated by macroeconomic factors, with limited impact from fundamentals, leading to expectations of low fluctuations in ICE cotton prices [1] - In the domestic market, macro influences are weakening, and there are no significant drivers from fundamentals, with Zheng cotton prices entering a new fluctuation range [1]

Agriculture - Soybeans: High temperatures and low rainfall in the U.S. during July-August affect the quality and yield, while La Niña may cause drought in Brazil and Argentina, impacting logistics and shipments to China [3] - Corn: Abnormal rainfall in South America due to El Niño and La Niña disrupts crop growth, while extreme heat in Ukraine from late June to early September negatively impacts corn yields [4] - Apples: Unpredictable weather in spring can lead to severe frost damage, as seen in 2018 when temperatures dropped to -6°C, causing over 30% yield loss [5] - Canola: La Niña causes high temperatures in Canada from May to September, leading to significant yield reductions, while Europe faces spring frost issues in 2024 [6] - Palm Oil: El Niño results in low temperatures and rainfall in Malaysia and Indonesia, causing delayed production impacts seen in previous years [7] - Live Pigs: Winter increases the likelihood of disease outbreaks, but extreme weather impacts are generally localized and short-term [10] - Eggs: High summer temperatures lead to a slight decrease in egg production rates, but do not alter the overall supply-demand balance [11] Soft Commodities - Cotton: Low temperatures and excessive rainfall in Xinjiang affect seedling emergence, while drought in the U.S. during June-August raises abandonment rates and reduces production [12] - Sugar: Drought in Brazil and India during September-October affects sugarcane quality and yield, while heavy rainfall in Thailand and Guangxi also impacts production [13] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: North American cold waves in January-February affect shale oil production, while hurricanes from June to November impact refinery operations [15] - Urea: Extreme heat affects production, while rainfall patterns influence application timing [16] - Methanol: Cold weather in Iran reduces chemical demand, leading to decreased imports [17] - PTA: Typhoons in summer disrupt logistics in China, causing temporary supply shortages [18] - Ethylene Glycol: Cold waves in North America lead to reduced imports [19] - LPG: Severe drought in Panama Canal region raises shipping costs, significantly increasing domestic LPG prices [21] Non-Ferrous & New Energy - Copper: Extreme weather poses risks to copper mining operations, with 19% of mines facing such threats [23] - Zinc: Production at McArthur River mine was halted due to hurricane-related rainfall, resulting in a significant decrease in output [24] - Aluminum: Seasonal rainfall fluctuations in Yunnan affect production costs and capacity [25] - Nickel: Rainy seasons in the Philippines impact shipment volumes, leading to price spikes [27][28] Black Metals - Iron Ore: Weather events in Australia and Brazil, such as cyclones and heavy rainfall, restrict shipments, significantly affecting supply [33]