【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国 GDP 数据数据公布，三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%，创两年 最快增速，整体表现相对强劲，在一定程度上打击了降息预期。美国就业市场回温，上周 首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落，整体数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。在缺乏新催化剂、 流动性偏紧的背景下，美联储会议纪要未能提振美股。接下来重点关注特朗普公布的下任 美联储主席人选情况。国内方面，政治局会议与中央经济工作会议延续"稳中求进"总基调， 继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策；明年重点工作以扩大内需为首要任 务，核心在于推进城乡居民增收与释放服务消费潜力，同时依托创新推动新旧动能转换。 而 11 月经济数据显示工业生产韧性尚存，社会消费品零售同比增速降至 1.3%，内需表现 偏弱，仍需政策托底。关注国内 PMI 数据公布情况。 人民币汇率：7 关口迎终局检验 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 6.9901，较上一交易日上涨 197 个基点，创 2023 年 5 月以来新高，夜盘收报 6.9940。在岸、离岸人民币对美元一度 均升破 6.99 关口。人民币对美元中间价报 7.0348，较上 ...

碳酸锂收盘站上12万元／吨关口镍价刷新逾两个月新高 金属板块12月23日延续强势，除金银铂钯继续飙升以外，碳酸锂也进一步刷新了本轮反弹的高点，在23日尾盘成功收复12万元／吨关口，逼近2024年3月4日 的高位。基本面供需紧平衡格局延续，推动锂价持续走高。储能需求的持续强劲，抵消了动力需求季节性回落对碳酸锂基本面的影响，使得国内碳酸锂库存 持续去化，进而也强化了资金对碳酸锂的看多情绪。不过，机构也提示，需留意后期碳酸锂供需面的边际变化。一方面，在供应端，虽然11月国内碳酸锂进 口量环比减少，但机构判断随着智利发运恢复至正常水平，12月碳酸锂进口量或环比增加。同时，进口锂矿陆续到港，锂矿库存存在继续累积的可能。此 外，在需求端，下游正极材料厂对当前锂价态度趋于谨慎。整体看，碳酸锂市场暂时仍维持供应高弹性压制价格上行空间，储能需求表现较强支撑锂价下跌 空间的局面，短期在资金作用下保持冲高动能，但整体或高位震荡运行。盘面上看，尽管碳酸锂主力合约23日午盘市场震荡攀高，但持仓整体呈现减仓态 势，终盘主力2605合约净减仓超300手，近月2601合约则减仓近5200手。 沪镍在印尼收紧镍矿供应政策的影响下，近五个交易日 ...

国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2025/12/23 有色截面动量分化 商品本周多头占比小幅上升,主要表现 贵金属因子强度维持高位,农产品板块 小幅下降。目前,截面偏强的板块是贵 金属和有色,黑色和能源也位于中性以 上区间,截面偏弱的是农产品。具体来 看,黄金时序动量小幅上升,白银的持 仓量边际上升幅度更大,持续处于偏强 区间,截面两端分化扩大。有色板块短 周期动量回升,期限结构分化收窄,截 面上铜和锡均偏强。黑色板块,时序动 量显示边际回落,铁矿和螺纹持仓量维 持中性,焦煤焦炭持仓量仍然位于高位 。能化板块短周期动量因子回升,纯碱 处于截面偏空端。农产品方面,油粕截 面分化收窄,虽然时序动量层面下行趋 势边际减弱,但持仓量处于近期低位。 玻 寶 策略净值方面,上周供给因子上行 1.51%,需求因子走强1.62%,库存因子 走弱0.13%,价差因子走高0.29%,利润 因子走强0.21%，合成因子上行1.38%， 本周综合信号空头。基本面因子上,浮 法玻璃企业开工环比持平,供给端中 性;二线城市商品房成交数量增多,需 求端中性偏多;河北、湖北浮法玻璃企 业小幅累库,库存端多头强度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - Overseas, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone. The US job market is cooling, and CPI data is suspected of being distorted. The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, causing the global bond market to decline. Domestically, fiscal and monetary policies remain positive, but domestic demand is weak and needs policy support [2]. - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may "break 7" and depreciate moderately in 2026, supported by factors such as narrowing monetary policy differentials, strengthening domestic economic fundamentals, and inflows of international capital [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to be volatile; the bond market is not pessimistic in the medium - term, and short - term trading should avoid chasing highs [5][6]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver prices are strong. In the short - term, silver should be cautiously chased due to rising price risks. In the long - term, factors such as the Fed's rate - cut rhythm, dollar index, and demand for gold by central banks should be considered [11][12]. - Copper prices may break through or return to a volatile pattern. Buying on dips is recommended [15]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [16]. - Zinc is expected to have a high - level wide - range shock in the short - term [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices have rebounded, but the market is affected by various factors. Tin prices should be cautiously chased above 340,000 [18][19]. - Lithium carbonate prices may have a short - term correction but are expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance in the long - term. Buying on dips is recommended [21]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon trading should focus on technical analysis [21]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 [23]. Black Commodities - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be volatile, with the rebar 2605 contract in the range of 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the range of 3000 - 3400 [26]. - Iron ore prices are range - bound, with upper pressure from high supply and lower support from steel mill profits and expected iron - water recovery [26][27]. - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by supply and demand and inventory. The third - round price cut of coke is expected to land, and the coking coal inventory structure may improve [30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, but the upside is limited [31]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp prices are expected to be volatile, and offset paper can be lightly shorted [32]. - Crude oil prices may rise due to the tense situation between the US and Venezuela [34]. - LPG is supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term [35]. - PX and PTA are expected to be in a good supply - demand pattern, but PTA processing fees have limited upside. Buying on dips is recommended [38][39]. - MEG prices are under pressure from supply and demand and cost, and the upside is limited [41]. - Methanol is in a mixed situation, and the 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage can be held [43]. - PP may have reduced supply in January, and buying on dips can be considered [45]. - PE is affected by the weak spot market, but the downside is limited due to potential supply reduction [47]. - Pure benzene is in a surplus situation, and styrene is changing from a strong to a weak situation [48][49]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak situation, and low - sulfur fuel oil is improving [50][51]. - Rubber is expected to be under pressure and volatile, and synthetic rubber's upside is limited [52][53]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short - term [54]. - Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are expected to be volatile, with soda ash facing surplus pressure and glass having high inventory [54][55][56]. - Log prices may improve due to supply reduction expectations, and a short put option strategy can be considered [58]. - Propylene is expected to be weakly volatile [60]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be affected by policies in the long - term, but the short - term is based on fundamentals. The near - term has high supply pressure, and the far - term is stronger [61]. - Oilseeds have a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Soybean meal's near - term is supported, and rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [62][63]. - Oils are running weakly following the external market. Buying near - term contracts can be tried [63][64]. - Cotton prices lack a short - term driver but may rise in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream order situation before the festival [66]. - Sugar prices have rebounded after a sharp decline, and the downward trend continues [67]. - Egg prices may have a short - term rebound, but the long - term capacity is still excessive [68]. - Apple prices may have a pull - back, and buying on dips can be considered [69]. - Red date prices have limited downside in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - festival procurement [70]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes the State Council meeting, TikTok news, price rules, Hainan's customs - closure, Trump's policies, Fed news, the Bank of Japan's rate hike, and international negotiations [1]. - The core logic is the Fed's rate cut, the Bank of Japan's rate hike, and the domestic economic policy of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose. Important news includes the US Treasury Secretary's statement and Trump's pharmaceutical agreement. The 2026 exchange rate is expected to be volatile and depreciate moderately [3][4]. Stock Index - The previous trading day's stock index rose, but the trading volume was low. The short - term is expected to be volatile [4][5]. Treasury Bond - The previous week's bond market rebounded. The market is not pessimistic in the medium - term, and short - term trading should avoid chasing highs [5][6]. Container Shipping to Europe - The SCFI European line slightly declined, and futures prices were volatile at a high level. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [7][8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are strong. In the short - term, silver price risks are rising; in the long - term, multiple factors need to be considered [11][12]. - **Copper**: Prices may break through or be volatile. Buying on dips is recommended [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - term; alumina is weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [16]. - **Zinc**: Short - term high - level wide - range shock [17]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices have rebounded, affected by various factors [18]. - **Tin**: Prices should be cautiously chased above 340,000 [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: May have a short - term correction, but long - term supply - demand is tight. Buying on dips is recommended [20][21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon trading should focus on technical analysis [21]. - **Lead**: Expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 [23]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices are volatile, affected by cost support and demand weakness [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are range - bound, with supply pressure on the upside and demand support on the downside [26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by supply, demand, and inventory. The third - round price cut of coke is expected to land, and the coking coal inventory structure may improve [30]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Volatile and strong in the short - term, but the upside is limited [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices are expected to be volatile, and offset paper can be lightly shorted [32]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices may rise due to the tense US - Venezuela situation [34]. - **LPG**: Supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term [35]. - **PTA - PX**: In a good supply - demand pattern, but PTA processing fees have limited upside. Buying on dips is recommended [36][38]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Prices are under pressure from supply, demand, and cost, and the upside is limited [40][41]. - **Methanol**: In a mixed situation, and the 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage can be held [43]. - **PP**: May have reduced supply in January, and buying on dips can be considered [44][45]. - **PE**: Affected by the weak spot market, but the downside is limited due to potential supply reduction [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in a surplus situation, and styrene is changing from a strong to a weak situation [48][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is improving [49][51]. - **Rubber**: Expected to be under pressure and volatile, and synthetic rubber's upside is limited [52][53]. - **Urea**: Expected to be volatile in the short - term [54]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Volatile, with soda ash facing surplus pressure and glass having high inventory [54][55][56]. - **Log**: Prices may improve due to supply reduction expectations, and a short put option strategy can be considered [58]. - **Propylene**: Expected to be weakly volatile [60]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: May be affected by policies in the long - term, but the short - term is based on fundamentals. The near - term has high supply pressure, and the far - term is stronger [61]. - **Oilseeds**: Near - strong and far - weak pattern. Soybean meal's near - term is supported, and rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [62][63]. - **Oils**: Running weakly following the external market. Buying near - term contracts can be tried [63][64]. - **Cotton**: Prices lack a short - term driver but may rise in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream order situation before the festival [66]. - **Sugar**: Prices have rebounded after a sharp decline, and the downward trend continues [67]. - **Egg**: Prices may have a short - term rebound, but the long - term capacity is still excessive [68]. - **Apple**: Prices may have a pull - back, and buying on dips can be considered [69]. - **Red Date**: Prices have limited downside in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - festival procurement [70].

（记者 王晓波） 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——中标企业频频弃标 大型医疗设备采购有何难言之隐？ 每经AI快讯，广东宏大（SZ 002683，收盘价：40.22元）12月16日晚间发布公告称，公司第六届2025年 第十三次董事会会议于2025年12月16日在公司56层会议室召开。会议审议了《关于修订 <高级管理人员 薪酬管理办法> 的议案》等文件。 2025年1至6月份，广东宏大的营业收入构成为：矿山开采占比70.36%，民爆及其他收入占比15.11%， 能化业务占比12.85%，防务装备占比0.88%，其他行业占比0.8%。 截至发稿，广东宏大市值为306亿元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a more dovish tone than expected. The subsequent non - farm data will affect the direction of interest rate cut expectations. Domestically, the government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task for next year [2]. - In the short term, the RMB is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, with low - volatility trading. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the bond market sentiment is weak, but the downside of the index is limited. The container shipping market for the European route will continue to see a tug - of - war between bulls and bears [5][8][9]. - For commodities, precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - long term and volatile in the short term; base metals have different trends, such as copper showing an internal - weak and external - strong pattern, aluminum being oscillatingly strong, and zinc having short - term wide - range fluctuations; energy and chemical products also have diverse trends, like crude oil being weakly volatile, and LPG being oscillating; agricultural products have different outlooks, for example, the supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification, and the oil market is weakly operating [16][19][20][23][43][44][83] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to the release of the US non - farm payroll report. The Fed's interest rate cut decision and domestic economic data, such as the industrial production in November showing resilience while consumption and investment facing pressure, are important factors affecting the market [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It continues the callback trend. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on the previous trading day. In the short term, it is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, supported by policy, seasonal factors, and the external environment [3][5]. - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's stock index closed down, and the trading volume decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [6][8]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market closed down on Monday, and the market sentiment is weak. The economic data in November shows weakening economic momentum, but the market focus is not on the fundamentals. The policy focus on expanding domestic demand has not yet formed a clear impact on the bond market [8][9]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase is less than expected. The market is in a tug - of - war between the support of spot prices and the expectation of future capacity release. In the short term, the market will continue this situation, and different contracts need to pay attention to different factors [9][10][12] Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices rose sharply at night. The Fed's expected loose monetary policy and the EU's relaxation of the fuel - vehicle ban are beneficial to the demand for platinum and palladium in automobile catalysts. It is recommended to pay attention to the internal - external price difference of platinum [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices are in a high - level shock. Focus on the release of the US non - farm payroll report tonight. In the short term, it is expected to be in a high - level shock, and bullish in the medium - long term [17][18][19]. - **Copper**: The fixed - asset investment growth rate declined, and the copper price shows an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Pay attention to the high - level adjustment risk and support at 90,000 [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The trends are different. Aluminum is expected to be oscillatingly strong in the medium term; alumina is weakly operating; cast aluminum alloy is oscillatingly strong [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: It is in short - term wide - range fluctuations. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals show tight supply at the mine end and support from inventory de - stocking [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is in a technical correction. Although the supply at the mine end is tight, the downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is expected to enter a wide - range shock stage [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillatingly strong. In the short term, it is driven by market sentiment, and in the medium - long term, it has a long - value support from the demand side [27][28]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downside space in the medium - long term; polysilicon is in a wait - and - see situation, with the trading logic mainly based on technical aspects [29][30]. - **Lead**: The inventory accumulation exerts pressure. The price is in a weak shock, and it is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 in the short term [31]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are oscillatingly weak. After the central economic work conference, the market pricing returns to the fundamentals. The supply may slow down in the reduction, and the demand is seasonally weak. The prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [32][33]. - **Iron Ore**: The price first fell and then rose. The trading logic returns to the fundamentals. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the price is expected to have limited downside space [34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are in a weak consolidation. The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, and the demand is weak, resulting in a marginal oversupply. The supply of coke may increase in the future, and the price is likely to continue to decline [36][37]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They face a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with limited upside space. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is at a high level [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is in an oscillating state. The high - price pulp has poor sales, and the demand is weak. The offset paper is affected by the pulp price and supply factors. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The price hit a new low this year due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. It is weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the potential support of Brent crude oil at $60 per barrel [42][43]. - **LPG**: It is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. The external market is in an oscillating pattern, and the domestic spot is relatively strong [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious driving force, and it fluctuates with the cost side. The supply of PX is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand for polyester will decline in the later stage. The PTA processing fee has limited repair space [46][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The supply negative feedback appears, but it is difficult to reverse the situation. The demand is declining, and the supply has some support signals. The short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the long - term oversupply situation remains [50][52]. - **Methanol**: Maintain the reverse - spread view. The 1 - 5 spread shows a positive - spread pattern, mainly due to market trends and unloading problems. It is recommended to add positions in the 1 - 5 reverse - spread [53][54]. - **PP**: The cost side still has strong support. The supply pressure may be alleviated in January, and the demand has some support. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot situation [56][57]. - **PE**: Pay attention to the spot situation. It shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The supply pressure is large, and it is difficult to form strong support [58][59]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Styrene's inventory decreased on Monday. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [60][61][62]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cracking is weak. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking is rising. The supply is tightening, and the cracking has an upward driving force. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom - space is limited, and the winter - storage policies are gradually introduced. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is weakening, and the cost side is weakly oscillating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [65][66]. - **Rubber**: The macro atmosphere is warm, but the fundamental benefits are limited. The supply of natural rubber is slightly tightened, the downstream demand support is weakening, and the inventory is still accumulating. It is expected to oscillate [68][70]. - **Urea**: The futures and spot prices tend to converge. The supply is high, and the price is under pressure, but the export policy weakens the downward driving force. It is expected to oscillate [71][72]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They fluctuate at a low level. Soda ash has an increasing over - supply expectation, and glass may have some production - line cold - repairs in the future. Caustic soda has weak fundamentals and is expected to decline weakly [73][74][75]. - **Log**: The short positions left the market intensively, and the price rose and then fell. The price is in a game state, with limited trading value [76][78][79]. - **Propylene**: It is weakly oscillating. The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is not strong. It will remain in a weak state before more maintenance [79][80]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The supply - demand situation in the peak season needs verification. The policy may affect the long - term supply, and the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals. The near - month has an over - supply pressure, and the far - month is stronger [82][83]. - **Oilseeds**: The customs - clearance time is extended. The import soybean buying sentiment is reduced, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different supply - demand situations. The external market of soybeans is weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal is in a positive - spread trend in the short term [84][85][86]. - **Oils**: They are weakly operating. Palm oil is under supply pressure, soybean oil is affected by soybean auctions, and rapeseed oil is affected by market news. The short - term price center of gravity is moving down [87][88]. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to downstream orders. The domestic cotton supply - demand is expected to be tight in the long term, and the price is relatively strong, but there is short - term pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips [89]. - **Sugar**: The price hits a new low. Affected by the high - supply situation in major producing countries, the sugar price is in a weak state [90][91][92]. - **Eggs**: The chicken culling is in progress. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, but there is a turning point. It is recommended to participate in long positions lightly if betting on a rebound [93]. - **Apples**: The price has a large retracement. The consumption is not smooth, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips [94][95]. - **Jujubes**: The new - product supply is sufficient. The new - season jujube production is expected to decrease slightly, and the short - term price has limited downside space. Pay attention to downstream pre - holiday purchases [96][97].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor strength of the black and chemical sectors declined, while that of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in cross - section, and the chemical and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak [3]. - For the CTA strategy, the signals vary across different commodities. For example, the comprehensive signal for methanol is short, for glass is long, for iron ore changes from long to short, and for lead remains short [3][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Commodities in General - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor strength of the black and chemical sectors declined, while that of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in cross - section, and the chemical and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, the demand factor weakened by 0.01%, the inventory factor increased by 0.36%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.01%. The comprehensive signal this week is short [3]. Black Sector - The short - cycle momentum of the black sector decreased. The term structure shows narrowing differentiation. The positions of coking coal and coke remained low, and the short - cycle momentum of iron ore reversed and declined [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, last week the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week the comprehensive signal is long [9]. Non - Ferrous Sector - The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, and the cross - section momentum differentiation narrowed. Copper and zinc are relatively strong, and tin is relatively weak in cross - section [3]. - The time - series momentum of gold declined, the position of silver remained high, and the cross - section differentiation at both ends widened [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - The long - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemical sector decreased, and ethylene glycol is at the short end in cross - section [3]. Agricultural Product Sector - The cross - section differentiation of oil and meal narrowed, and the position of soybean oil decreased marginally [3]. Glass - In terms of strategy net value, last week the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week the comprehensive signal is long. The production of float glass enterprises, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities, and the continuous destocking of float glass enterprises all release long signals. The spot price of glass is neutral, and the profit of glass remains short [9]. Iron Ore - In terms of strategy net value, last week the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week the comprehensive signal changes from long to short. The cumulative year - on - year decline of iron ore production has narrowed, the port daily dredging volume has decreased, the inventory of port iron ore and trade ore has accumulated, and the spot price center has moved down [11]. Lead - In terms of strategy net value, last week the supply factor increased by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.46%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.5%, the spread factor weakened by 0.33%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%, and this week the comprehensive signal remains short. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, the inventory of lead has decreased, the position of the main contract of Shanghai lead has decreased, and the spread of lead has moved down [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is currently dragged down by the "weak volume and price" situation, with significant marginal decline. In the short - term, it will face pressure and maintain a weak oscillation. In the long - term, it is expected to enter a repair channel in 2025 [2]. - The upward space of the US dollar index is limited, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term. The release of November non - farm payroll data and the determination of the Fed chair candidate will test its resilience [2]. - The RMB exchange rate will likely show a complex pattern of depreciation trend (appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar) and volatility risks coexisting within the year. In the short - term, it will be robust and strong, but the appreciation speed may slow down, and the two - way fluctuation will be more obvious [4][5]. - The stock index trading atmosphere is sluggish and is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - The mid - term outlook for treasury bonds is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [8]. - The container shipping European line futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. - Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals. Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23][25]. - Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. - Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's November official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2, and the high - tech manufacturing PMI remained above 50 for 10 consecutive months. The US "Black Friday" sales increased by 4.1% year - on - year, and the AI traffic soared by 600%. The US - Ukraine negotiation was considered "productive" [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0794 on the previous trading day, up 12 points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was 7.0789, down 10 points. The RMB exchange rate is expected to show a complex pattern of appreciation and volatility risks [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The trading atmosphere is sluggish, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The mid - term outlook is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [7][8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals [23][24]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - **LPG**: LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - **PP**: PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - **PE**: PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - **Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 28 日 从信念到模型验证：估值与周期双轮驱动 ——大宗商品中观轮动系列（二） | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | 李翔云（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03149627 | lixiangyun@gtht.com | 报告导读： 商品中观轮动的研究初衷，是将"主观+量化"理念有机结合并付诸实践。我们希望尽可能降低策略 中因子、参数及模型的特异性，注重策略的可解释性及可归因性，给出经得起时间验证的模型。我们构建 的月频品种簇中观轮动模型，样本内平均年化收益率 17.79%，夏普比率 1.44，回撤-5.70%，月度胜率 68.98%；样本外 2025 年 1-11 月总收益录得 15.43%，回撤录得 1.09%，月度胜率 70%，仅三个月录得负 收益率。 本篇报告是中观轮动系列的模型搭建部分： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity market experienced a widespread decline on November 21, primarily influenced by external market weaknesses, with significant drops in various sectors, particularly lithium carbonate and precious metals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1458.04 points, down 16.46 points or 1.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2015.90 points, down 22.76 points or 1.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - Most active commodities, except for some agricultural products, saw declines, with lithium carbonate hitting a daily limit down of 9% [1][2]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market faced a rapid cooling, with multiple contracts, including the main contract, closing at the daily limit down, leading the commodity market decline on November 21 [2]. - The market's downturn was exacerbated by the announcement from the Guangxi Futures Exchange to raise trading fees and margin requirements for certain lithium carbonate contracts, further dampening bullish sentiment [2]. - The main contract saw a significant reduction in positions, with over 68,000 contracts reduced and a net outflow of more than 2.2 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals also suffered from the overall market weakness, with the main silver contract dropping 3.7% and gold down 1.4% [3]. - The release of better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data diminished expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, contributing to the decline in precious metals [3]. - Despite short-term pressures, analysts believe the long-term fundamentals supporting precious metals remain intact, suggesting a potential rebound after adjustments [3]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Performance - In contrast to industrial commodities, certain agricultural products showed resilience, with starch and corn contracts rising over 1%, leading the commodity market [4]. - The strength in the corn market is attributed to reduced new grain supply from Northeast China and strong demand from feed enterprises, with average feed enterprise inventory increasing by 2.42% week-on-week [4][5]. - The oilseed sector exhibited mixed performance, with soybean oil and meal generally declining, while rapeseed meal saw a rebound after reaching a low point [5].