大宗商品周度报告 2026年2月25日 ●行情回顾：节前商品市场整体微跌0.23%，其中贵金属领涨3.29%，有 色和农产品分别上涨1.58%和0.23%，黑色和能化分别下跌1.1%和1.11%。 宏观不确定性主导下 短期商品或震荡偏强 具体品种收盘价来看，涨幅居前的品种为豆一、白银和苹果，涨幅分别 为6.76%、5.23%和3.15%；跌幅较大的品种为棕榈油、沥青和苯乙烯，跌 幅分别为3.63%、3.56%和3.49%。 商品市场20日平均波动率小幅下降，各板块波动均有所收敛。资金方 面，全市场规模大幅增加，各板块资金均表现为净流入。 ●展望：假期期间，美联储官员释放的信号整体偏鹰，美元指数偏强运行。 随着美国最高法院裁定政府大规模关税政策违法，美元有所走弱。不过特朗 普新征收的10%的全球关税开始生效，白宫正在制定行政令以提高税率。美 伊局势依然焦灼，对油价形成明显支撑。短期在宏观不确定性主导下，商品 市场或震荡偏强。 贵金属方面，假期期间外盘贵金属在剧烈震荡后冲高，美国GDP不及预 期，但核心PCE较强，另外美国最高法院裁定政府大规模关税政策违法，美 元指数走弱。美伊谈判无实质性进展，短期风险事件关键节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market in 2025 exhibited a clear structural differentiation, with precious metals leading the market, while non-ferrous and new energy metals also performed well. The year 2026 is expected to see a moderate economic recovery and a more accommodative liquidity environment, with investment strategies focusing on selecting sectors and controlling pace as key to success [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The global economy is projected to recover moderately in 2026, with an upward trend in the global manufacturing cycle and a stable domestic economy despite differentiation. Inflation and corporate profits are likely to rise moderately [3]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to lower global short-term rates, further enhancing the upward potential of the global manufacturing cycle [3]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - The core feature of the capital market in 2026 will be a multi-dimensional "K" type differentiation, characterized by strong external factors versus weak internal factors, old versus new economy, AI versus non-AI, and supply bottlenecks versus supply elasticity [3][4]. - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are anticipated to be the main asset allocation varieties in 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The allocation value of precious metals continues to rise, making them one of the main varieties for 2026. The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the U.S. strategic shift towards Europe and South America are expected to enhance gold's safe-haven and allocation value [4]. - The growth in gold ETFs, particularly in European countries, reflects the increasing allocation value of gold [4]. Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals - The pricing logic of non-ferrous metals is undergoing reconstruction, with a likely upward trend in price centers in 2026. Demand from sectors such as new energy, data centers, and infrastructure investment is driving this change, while traditional real estate demand is declining [4]. - Major countries, led by the U.S. and China, are focusing on resource and key mineral reserves, which will significantly alter short-term supply-demand balance and drive non-ferrous metal prices higher [4]. Group 5: Black and Energy Chemical Sectors - The black metal sector is expected to present limited investment opportunities in 2026, with a tendency towards oscillation due to significant supply elasticity in the industrial chain [5]. - The energy chemical sector offers opportunities primarily in the stock market, with a focus on left-side interventions as capacity cycles peak. The polyester industry is noted for its relatively better fundamentals [5]. Group 6: Geopolitical Factors - Despite an overall optimistic outlook for the commodity market in 2026, a single upward trend is unlikely. Geopolitical disturbances are identified as a key factor influencing market rhythm, with a pattern of "seasonal price increases and actual declines" expected to continue [6][7]. - Geopolitical conflicts may create short-term panic, leading to indiscriminate declines in asset valuations, but these are not expected to evolve into systemic risks. Investors are encouraged to seek out undervalued assets during these periods [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is reminiscent of the 1970s, where fiscal expansion and geopolitical tensions are driving a new commodity bull market, with significant implications for pricing and demand in various sectors [3][4]. - The U.S. is expected to implement a tax reduction of $396 billion in 2026, which could directly boost consumer growth by 1.8 percentage points, while the AI revolution and green transition are creating new demand dynamics [3][4]. - The commodity market is shifting from a supply-demand pricing model to one focused on liquidity and risk hedging, indicating that commodities may outperform other asset classes [4]. Group 2 - AI capital expenditure is reshaping the demand for non-ferrous metals, with significant increases in copper consumption driven by data center construction and energy storage systems [5][6]. - The first phase of AI investment is expected to double copper usage in power distribution systems, with an anticipated increase of 400,000 tons in copper consumption by 2026, representing 2% of global production [6]. - The second phase involves a surge in lithium demand, projected to grow at an annual rate of 15%-20%, while aluminum's application in energy storage systems is expected to rise above 15% [6]. Group 3 - There is a consensus in the market ranking commodities as "non-ferrous > precious metals > agricultural products > energy > ferrous," but this consensus is fragile, with risks of underestimating fundamental pricing and macro structural changes [8]. - The black metal sector faces pressure due to traditional demand drivers, and if fiscal signals do not exceed expectations by March 2026, valuation recovery for black metals may be constrained [8]. - The risk of a rollback in global decarbonization efforts could lead to a reassessment of demand premiums for green metals like copper and aluminum, with potential price adjustments exceeding expectations [9]. Group 4 - In the precious metals market, gold is viewed as a more stable investment compared to silver, supported by strong demand from central banks and ETFs, which enhances its "safe haven" status [10][11]. - Gold's unique financial attributes insulate it from industrial demand fluctuations, and its relatively low volatility makes it attractive for long-term investment [11]. - The current speculative net long positions in gold are below levels seen during last year's rate cuts, suggesting potential for price increases if monetary easing resumes [11].

Core Viewpoint - In January, domestic policies aimed at stabilizing demand were implemented intensively, leading to significant support for market demand and a strong performance in the commodity market, as evidenced by the rise in the China Securities Commodity Futures Index and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index [1][5]. Index Performance Analysis - In January, the China Securities Commodity Futures Index rose by 13.57%, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index increased by 13.64%, indicating a strong upward trend in the commodity indices with a volatility of 19.71% throughout the month [2]. - The commodity market's strong performance was influenced by international factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and geopolitical risks, which heightened market sentiment towards commodities [4]. Domestic Policy Impact - The implementation of a series of fiscal and financial policies aimed at boosting domestic demand has led to a significant improvement in the commodity market, with a broad-based increase replacing the previous differentiated performance [5]. - The People's Bank of China lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, which has positively impacted the industrial sector [5]. Sector-Specific Analysis Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector showed a strong performance in January, with the China Securities Energy Chemical Industry Futures Index rising by 7.54%, driven by improved demand and cost support [8][10]. - The demand for energy products, such as gasoline and diesel, improved due to the implementation of domestic policies and international geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [10]. Steel Sector - The China Securities Steel Futures Index increased by 0.64%, supported by high demand and inventory reduction, with hot-rolled coil export orders rising by 12% year-on-year [12]. - The supply side faced tightening due to disruptions in Brazilian iron ore shipments, which provided additional cost support for the steel sector [12]. Construction Materials Sector - The China Securities Construction Materials Futures Index rose by 1.87%, reflecting a recovery in demand driven by accelerated infrastructure projects and supply-side adjustments [13]. - The market sentiment improved as the issuance of long-term special government bonds directed funds towards construction material projects [13]. Agricultural Products Sector - The China Securities Agricultural Products Index increased by 1.72%, with notable performance in oilseeds and soft commodities, driven by supply constraints and recovering demand [14]. - Palm oil prices rose due to adverse weather conditions in Malaysia, while cotton prices were supported by rising domestic purchase prices and weakening dollar index [14]. Contribution to Index Returns - The top contributors to the China Securities Commodity Futures Index in January were silver (4.09%), gold (1.47%), and crude oil (1.01%), while the only negative contributor was soda ash (-0.01%) [15][17]. - The strong performance of precious metals was attributed to increased safe-haven buying amid Federal Reserve policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [17].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights a resilient industrial production alongside rapid export growth, while domestic demand indicators such as consumption and investment remain weak, indicating a year-long trend of "strong production versus weak demand, and better external demand than internal demand" [1] Economic Environment - The monetary policy remains accommodative, with the central bank governor indicating room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions this year [1] - The current macroeconomic environment shares similarities with the investment peak period of 2020-2021, as interbank rates have dropped to nearly the lowest levels since 2020 [1] Investment Opportunities - The combination of weak macro demand and loose liquidity favors structural investment opportunities in thriving sectors [1] - Key sectors include AI semiconductors and renewable energy, which are currently at the core of economic vitality [1] - Emerging hotspots are continuously catalyzing growth, with strong policy support for AI applications and accelerated commercialization [1] Sector Performance - The global capacity planning for space photovoltaics exceeds expectations, and technological breakthroughs are opening up trillion-dollar markets [1] - The resource sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, shows a high forecast for 2025 earnings, indicating a positive outlook [1] - As monetary easing continues, funds are expected to shift from the financial system to the real economy, benefiting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery, and consumer goods [1] Market Trends - Since December, the South China Metal Index has risen by 12.5%, while the energy and industrial product indices have only increased by around 7%, suggesting better investment value in the current market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that while industrial production remains resilient and exports are growing rapidly, domestic demand indicators such as consumption and investment are still weak, highlighting a characteristic of "strong production versus weak demand" throughout the previous year [1] Economic Environment - The current macroeconomic environment shows similarities to the investment peak period of 2020-2021, with interbank interest rates at their lowest levels since 2020 [1] - The combination of weak macro demand and loose liquidity is expected to favor structural investment opportunities in certain sectors [1] Sector Insights - In the technology sector, AI semiconductors and new energy are identified as the core areas of current prosperity, with strong policy support for AI applications and accelerated commercialization [1] - The global capacity planning for space photovoltaics has exceeded expectations, and technological breakthroughs are opening up trillion-dollar markets [1] - The innovative drug sector is seeing value realization driven by business development transactions, clinical breakthroughs, and new drug approvals [1] Resource Sector - The non-ferrous metals industry has the highest forecasted performance improvement rate for 2025, with attention on the subsequent transmission of prosperity to the energy and machinery sectors [1] - As monetary easing continues, funds are expected to gradually shift from the financial system to the real economy, benefiting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery, and consumer goods [1] - Since December 2025, the South China Metal Index has risen by 12.5%, while the energy and industrial product indices have only increased by around 7%, suggesting better investment value in the current market [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for high-growth sectors, suggesting that they possess investment value in the medium to long term [3][9]. Core Insights - The A-share market has experienced a pullback, influenced by policy guidance, leading to a rational market return. Short-term themes have adjusted, but the market is expected to benefit from a slow bull trend after consolidation [3][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting industries with upward momentum, particularly as selling pressure diminishes [3][9]. Summary by Sections Stock Market Factor Tracking - The market style remains biased towards small-cap stocks, with a continued preference for growth over value styles. Both small-cap and growth style volatilities have reached near one-year highs, indicating increased fluctuations in returns between styles [10][11]. - The report notes a rebound in the dispersion of excess returns across industries, while the speed of industry rotation continues to decline. The proportion of rising stocks in the 300 and 500 indices has significantly decreased [10][11]. - Market activity shows a decline in volatility for most indices, except for the 1000 index, while turnover rates are on the rise [10][11]. Commodity Market Factor Tracking - The energy and precious metals sectors have seen an increase in trend strength, while other sectors have experienced a decline. The basis momentum for precious metals and agricultural products has risen, contrasting with declines in other sectors [23][28]. - Volatility remains high for precious metals and non-ferrous metals, while black and energy sectors have seen slight decreases in volatility. Liquidity has decreased in precious metals and energy sectors, with other sectors experiencing increases [23][28]. Options Market Factor Tracking - Implied volatility for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 indices has begun to decline from recent highs. The skew in volatility indicates a decrease in bullish sentiment and an increase in bearish sentiment, suggesting that market participants perceive a lower risk of significant declines in small-cap stocks in the short term [31][32]. Convertible Bond Market Factor Tracking - The convertible bond market has experienced wide fluctuations. The premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan has stabilized, showing a slight adjustment, while the proportion of low-premium convertible bonds has increased. However, market transaction volumes remain high [33][34].

- The report tracks quantitative factors in the equity market, highlighting that the market style remains tilted towards small-cap and growth-oriented stocks, with increased volatility in style performance and widened return differences between styles[10][11] - In terms of market structure, the dispersion of excess returns across industries has risen, while industry rotation speed has decreased. The proportion of rising constituent stocks in indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500 has declined. Additionally, the concentration of trading in the top 100 stocks remained stable, while the top 5 industries saw a slight increase in trading concentration[10][11] - Market activity indicators show a decline in market volatility across most indices except CSI 1000, while turnover rates have continued to rise[10][11] - In the commodity market, the trend strength of precious metals and energy chemicals has increased, while other sectors have seen a decline. Basis momentum for precious metals and agricultural products has risen, whereas other sectors have declined. Volatility remains high for precious metals and base metals, with slight decreases in energy chemicals and black metals. Liquidity has decreased for precious metals and energy chemicals but increased for other sectors[23][28] - In the options market, implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 has decreased from previous highs. The skewness of call options has declined, while that of put options has increased. Despite this, the skewness of CSI 1000 put options remains negative, indicating that market participants perceive a low risk of significant declines in small-cap stocks in the short term[31][32] - In the convertible bond market, the market experienced wide fluctuations. The premium rate for bonds convertible at par value has stabilized with slight adjustments, while the pure bond premium rate for debt-oriented groups has continued to rise. The proportion of low-conversion-premium bonds has also increased. However, trading volume in the market remains high and has not weakened[33][39]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a pullback after reaching highs, with market guidance leading to a rational return and short-term adjustments in themes [1][4] - In the medium to long term, market consolidation is expected to benefit a slow bull market, with high-growth sectors presenting investment value [1][4] - Short-term volatility may occur, but it is recommended to focus on sectors with upward momentum after the weight pressure diminishes [1][4] Equity Market Factors - The market style remains biased towards small-cap stocks, while the growth style continues to favor growth stocks [6][8] - Both small-cap and growth style volatilities have risen to near one-year highs, with increased volatility in the return differences between styles [6][8] - The excess return dispersion among industries has rebounded, while the speed of industry rotation continues to decline [6][8] Trading Activity - The proportion of rising stocks in the 300 and 500 indices has significantly decreased [6] - The trading concentration remains stable, with the top 100 stocks' trading volume holding steady and the top five industries' trading volume share slightly increasing [6][7] Market Liquidity - Market volatility, except for the 1000 index, has generally decreased, while the turnover rate is on an upward trend [7][8] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the energy and precious metals sectors have seen an increase in trend strength, while other sectors have experienced a decline [21][22] - The basis momentum for precious metals and agricultural products has risen, while other sectors have shown a downward trend [21][22] - Volatility in precious metals and non-ferrous metals remains high, while the volatility in black and energy sectors has slightly decreased [21][22] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Composite and CSI 1000 has started to decline from its peak, indicating a cooling market sentiment [28] - The skewness of call options has decreased while that of put options has increased, suggesting a reduction in market exuberance [28] Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market has experienced wide fluctuations, with the premium rate for bonds at 100 yuan halting its upward trend and showing a slight adjustment [29] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has increased, while market transaction volumes remain high [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global liquidity environment will maintain a loose tone, with marginal adjustments in the pace and amplitude. China's macro - policies will remain positive, with fiscal support for "two major" construction and "new - quality productivity" and moderately loose monetary policies [17]. - The industrial capacity cycle has bottomed out, and there are signs of a turning point. In 2026, the capacity utilization rate is expected to stabilize in the first half and rise marginally in the second half [23]. - The inventory cycle is approaching its end, with domestic and overseas "de - stocking" showing signs of bottoming out [29]. - In 2026, the commodity market is expected to stabilize at the bottom and gradually shift to a "slow - bull" market. The Minsky Clock is likely to transition from "weak recovery" to "early re - inflation," benefiting stocks and commodities [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Outlook - The global liquidity environment in 2026 will maintain a loose tone, and China's macro - policies will continue to be positive, with fiscal support for key areas and moderately loose monetary policies [17]. 3.2 Capacity Cycle - The industrial capacity utilization rate bottomed out in Q2 2025, and the PPI has been narrowing its year - on - year decline since June 2025. In 2026, it may form the initial stage of a positive cycle [23]. 3.3 Inventory Cycle - The year - on - year growth rate of finished - product inventory has shown signs of bottoming out, indicating the end of the current inventory cycle. The US wholesalers' inventory has been decreasing since Q2, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has become less sensitive [29]. 3.4 Commodity Market Outlook - In 2026, the commodity market will operate in a pattern of "liquidity support, cycle resonance and stabilization, and structural differentiation." It may show wide - range fluctuations in the first half and a mild recovery in the second half if policies are effective [30]. 3.5 Sector and Variety Allocation Outlook 3.5.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals are expected to continue their bull market but with increased volatility. The gold - silver ratio may decline periodically [35]. 3.5.2 From AI to New and Old Energy Transition - AI's computing power demand drives the entire new - energy industry chain, causing high resonance between the stock market and commodities. New - energy materials such as lithium carbonate and polysilicon may enter a new demand cycle, and there are investment opportunities in going long on copper and short on oil [42][57]. 3.5.3 Real Estate and Related Sectors - The real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle, putting pressure on the prices of black and building - material sectors. The divergence between copper and rebar reflects the economic transformation [62]. 3.5.4 Black and Energy - Chemical Sectors - In the black sector, shorting iron ore may be cost - effective. In the energy - chemical sector, most chemicals except crude oil face supply pressure and are suitable for short - allocation [68]. 3.5.5 Agricultural Products - Livestock Sector - If the "anti - involution" policy promotes the reduction of livestock production capacity in the first half, pork and eggs may be worth long - allocation in the second half, while the fundamentals of beans may weaken [74]. 3.6 Allocation Strategy - Industrial product hedging can focus on the theme of "AI and computing power driving the acceleration of new - and old - energy transformation." Agricultural products will continue to show differentiation, with grains and oils relatively resistant to decline and livestock products potentially having a low - then - high trend [80][81]. - New - energy varieties (e.g., lithium carbonate) have demand support and profit - repair potential. Non - ferrous metals (e.g., copper) have valuation - increasing potential. Energy - chemical products are under pressure, and black products are affected by real - estate demand [82].