Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity market experienced a widespread decline on November 21, primarily influenced by external market weaknesses, with significant drops in various sectors, particularly lithium carbonate and precious metals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1458.04 points, down 16.46 points or 1.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2015.90 points, down 22.76 points or 1.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - Most active commodities, except for some agricultural products, saw declines, with lithium carbonate hitting a daily limit down of 9% [1][2]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market faced a rapid cooling, with multiple contracts, including the main contract, closing at the daily limit down, leading the commodity market decline on November 21 [2]. - The market's downturn was exacerbated by the announcement from the Guangxi Futures Exchange to raise trading fees and margin requirements for certain lithium carbonate contracts, further dampening bullish sentiment [2]. - The main contract saw a significant reduction in positions, with over 68,000 contracts reduced and a net outflow of more than 2.2 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals also suffered from the overall market weakness, with the main silver contract dropping 3.7% and gold down 1.4% [3]. - The release of better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data diminished expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, contributing to the decline in precious metals [3]. - Despite short-term pressures, analysts believe the long-term fundamentals supporting precious metals remain intact, suggesting a potential rebound after adjustments [3]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Performance - In contrast to industrial commodities, certain agricultural products showed resilience, with starch and corn contracts rising over 1%, leading the commodity market [4]. - The strength in the corn market is attributed to reduced new grain supply from Northeast China and strong demand from feed enterprises, with average feed enterprise inventory increasing by 2.42% week-on-week [4][5]. - The oilseed sector exhibited mixed performance, with soybean oil and meal generally declining, while rapeseed meal saw a rebound after reaching a low point [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - Overseas, focus on US economic data and the impact of the government shutdown; in China, pay attention to policy support due to a marginal slowdown in the economy [1]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen with the weakening of the US dollar index and seasonal effects, but caution is needed before new data is released [2]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate, with a focus on overseas variables such as US economic data, NVIDIA's Q3 earnings, and Sino - Japanese relations [5]. - Hold medium - term long positions in Treasury bonds, as they may benefit from weakening risk sentiment in the capital market, but short - term fluctuations are expected [5]. Commodities - Precious metals are expected to continue to adjust in the short term due to divergent expectations of a December interest rate cut, but may rise in the long term [13]. - Copper prices lack drivers and are expected to have a technical adjustment; aluminum may experience high - level oscillations; zinc, lead, and tin are expected to oscillate; nickel and stainless steel are at the bottom with limited further decline space; lithium carbonate may be over - inflated and risky for chasing highs; industrial silicon may have wide - range oscillations, and polysilicon may be weaker [17][18][24]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range, with support from raw material costs and suppression from inventory [29]. - Iron ore has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and opportunities for shorting at high levels can be considered after the basis is repaired [31]. - Coking coal and coke may face short - term adjustment pressure but have limited downside space in the long term, and can be considered for long positions when the price approaches the lower end of the range [34]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [36]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is in an oscillating and pressured state, with short - term attention on the support at $63 and long - term focus on geopolitical risks and macro - funds' hedging trends [38]. - LPG is expected to oscillate strongly; PX - PTA is expected to oscillate strongly with cost; MEG can be considered for selling call options to express a bearish view; methanol 01 may continue to decline; PP's short - term supply - demand situation has improved, and a 1 - 5 positive spread is supported; PE's short - term supply - demand has slightly improved, but the medium - long - term pattern is weak; pure benzene and styrene may have limited rebound height; fuel oil's high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking has upward momentum; asphalt's short - term bottom space is limited, and winter - storage willingness should be noted; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda have their own characteristics in terms of supply, demand, and price trends [39][41][49]. Pulp, Wood, and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper are expected to oscillate with a slightly downward - shifted price center; logs can be considered for a 01 - 03 reverse spread strategy; propylene is expected to oscillate [70][72][75]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Overseas: The US government shutdown has ended, and attention should be paid to economic data and the impact on the economy. Fed personnel changes have attracted market attention, and if Hassett is elected as the Fed chair, it may further open up the space for interest rate cuts. - Domestic: The economy shows a marginal slowdown, and the intensity and effectiveness of policy support are the focus [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the guidance of the central parity rate, and market settlement support. Attention should be paid to US employment data and domestic corporate settlement willingness [2]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated, with a decline in trading volume. The overall market sentiment was relatively stable, and short - term oscillations are expected, with a focus on overseas variables [5]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds rose slightly, and in the short term, they may continue to oscillate, while in the medium term, they may rise with fundamental support [5]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to adjust due to divergent expectations of a December interest rate cut. Long - term funds' gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings remained stable. Attention should be paid to US economic data and Fed officials' speeches [13]. Copper - Copper prices declined slightly, with an increase in warehouse receipts and a decrease in basis. The supply was relatively stable, and the demand showed some improvement, but the price lacked a clear driver [17]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices declined due to profit - taking by some funds. The supply was expected to be tight overseas, but domestic demand was weak. Alumina was in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy had certain support [18]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated narrowly. The smelting end had a strong demand for ore, and the TC decreased in November. The inventory situation needed to be observed, and the market had large differences between bulls and bears [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices were weak, with cost support weakening. The 12 - month interest rate cut expectation was uncertain, and the demand for nickel and stainless steel was weak [22]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated narrowly. The supply was weaker than the demand due to limited resumption of production in Wabang. It was recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly, but the downstream had no intention to replenish inventory. There was an over - inflation risk, and caution was needed when chasing highs [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon had a weak supply - demand pattern and was expected to oscillate widely. Polysilicon had a weak fundamental situation and was expected to oscillate weakly [25]. Lead - Lead prices were under pressure due to inventory accumulation. The supply was gradually returning to balance, and it was expected to oscillate [27]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded slightly, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of rebar and high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. The cost of iron ore was under pressure, and the profit of steel enterprises was declining [29]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded significantly, with an increase in shipping volume and a decrease in arrival volume. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. It was recommended to short at high levels after the basis was repaired [31]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices fell below the key support level. The supply of coking coal was marginally relaxed, and the demand was seasonally weak. However, the price had limited downside space in the long term [34]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded slightly due to environmental inspections, but the high - inventory situation remained unchanged. The demand was expected to decline, and they were expected to oscillate weakly [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices declined slightly, with a supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical risks. The price was expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at $63 [38]. LPG - LPG prices rose, with a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. The inventory was decreasing, and it was expected to oscillate strongly [40]. PX - PTA - PX - PTA prices rose, with a strengthening of the aromatics blending logic and an improvement in the supply - demand of PTA. The processing fee was repaired, but the oversupply expectation remained [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG prices rebounded due to supply - side accidents. The demand was relatively stable, and it was recommended to sell call options to express a bearish view [49]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to decline, with pressure on the 01 contract due to high supply and limited cost support. It was recommended to hold short positions and consider reverse spreads [51]. PP - PP prices oscillated at the bottom, with an increase in supply and a slight increase in demand. The cost support was strengthening, and a 1 - 5 positive spread was supported [54]. PE - PE prices rebounded slightly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth. The short - term supply - demand improved slightly, but the medium - long - term pattern was weak [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices rebounded at a low level, but the fundamentals did not change significantly, and the rebound height was limited [59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking was bearish due to weak demand, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking had upward momentum due to supply reduction expectations [60][63]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices fell, with an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The inventory structure improved, and the short - term bottom space was limited. Attention should be paid to winter - storage willingness [64]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices were limited by high supply and cost support; glass prices were under pressure due to high inventory and weak production and sales; caustic soda prices were affected by high supply and weak downstream replenishment [66][68][69]. Pulp, Wood, and Related Products Pulp and Offset Paper - Pulp prices were slightly affected by macro - sentiment and inventory, with some support from supply - side factors. Offset paper prices continued to decline due to lack of fundamental support [70]. Logs - Log prices were low - volatility, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity [72]. Propylene - Propylene prices oscillated, with a supply - demand balance of supply reduction and demand increase. The demand side was affected by PP and other downstream industries, and it was expected to oscillate [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Futures** - The RMB strengthened significantly against the US dollar due to multiple internal and external factors, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to "oscillate and build a bottom with a slowly declining bottom" [2] - Short - term stock indices may be under pressure, but with policy support, they are expected to oscillate [3][5] - Treasury bond mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term positions can be bought on dips [6] - **Commodities** - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to - long term, the price of precious metals will continue to rise, and short - term corrections are opportunities to add long positions [8][10] - **Copper**: The external copper price pulled back after rising, and the Shanghai copper is likely to follow. The price will oscillate between expectations and reality in the short term [10][12] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is in high - level oscillation; alumina is weakly running; cast aluminum alloy is in high - level oscillation [13][14] - **Zinc**: It is in high - level oscillation with strong support below [14] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They continue to oscillate, waiting for clear signals, and the downside space is greater than the upside space [15][16] - **Tin**: It is running strongly, and short - term chasing is not recommended [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is prone to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a view of oscillating strongly, but callback risks should be watched out for [18] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to oscillate widely due to weak fundamentals [19][20] - **Lead**: It is in strong - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to lower entry opportunities [21] - **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate within a range, with rebar in the 2900 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil in the 3100 - 3400 range [22][23] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is in oscillatory operation with no significant driving force [24] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure, but the medium - to - long - term coal coke is suitable for long - allocation [25][26] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and cost support [26] - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: It will oscillate in the 60 - 65 range in the short - to - medium term, with room for further decline [28][30] - **LPG**: It is in strong - level oscillation, with a neutral - to - good fundamental situation but high valuation [30][31] - **PTA - PX**: They are expected to oscillate strongly following the cost side in the short term, but the PTA over - supply expectation is difficult to change [32][35] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The short - term EG rebounds at a low level, but the long - term valuation is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [36][38] - **PP**: It will oscillate at the bottom with limited downward space [39][41] - **PE**: It will rebound at the bottom, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change, and the upward driving force is insufficient [42][44] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term disk follows pure benzene to strengthen, but the benzene - ethylene destocking pressure is large [44][45] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur cracking has an upward driving force [45][48] - **Asphalt**: It is weakly viewed in the short term, but pay attention to the trading rhythm [49][50] - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: They are expected to slowly rise in oscillation, with the expected strength pattern of RU>NR>BR [51][52] - **Urea**: The short - term market is stable and strong, but the high - supply pressure exists [52][53] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash**: The price is restricted by high inventory, but there is cost support below [53][54] - **Glass**: The 01 contract may decline towards the end, but there is cost support in the long term [55] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot is weak, and the long - term production pressure continues [56] - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp is expected to oscillate in the short term, and offset paper is expected to stabilize weakly [57][58] - **Log**: The grid strategy and option double - selling can continue to be configured [58] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: In China, the consumer price index has rebounded marginally, and boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction. In the US, the government shutdown has ended, and attention should be paid to the release of economic data and the Fed's decision - making [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB strengthened against the US dollar due to multiple factors. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [2] - **Stock Index**: The short - term stock index may be under pressure due to weak credit and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts, but it is expected to oscillate with policy support [3][5] - **Treasury Bond**: The short - term bond market is in narrow - range oscillation. In the context of weak economic fundamentals, long positions can be held [5][6] Commodities - **Precious Metals** - **Gold and Silver**: The price pulled back after rising. The 12 - month rate - cut expectation is uncertain. In the medium - to - long term, the price will continue to rise [8][9][10] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The external copper price pulled back after rising. The Shanghai copper is likely to follow, and the price will oscillate between expectations and reality in the short term [10][11][12] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is affected by funds and industry fundamentals; alumina is in an oversupply situation; cast aluminum alloy follows aluminum [13][14] - **Zinc**: It is in high - level oscillation, with the smelting end having a willingness to cut production in November, and the bottom support is strong [14] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They continue to oscillate, with cost support weakening and limited upward momentum [15][16] - **Tin**: It is running strongly, and short - term chasing is not recommended due to supply shortages [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is in a situation of increased production and inventory reduction, with good demand, and is expected to oscillate strongly [17][18] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They have weak demand, and the market is expected to oscillate widely [19][20] - **Lead**: It is in strong - level oscillation. After the supply problem is gradually solved, it will slowly return to balance [21] - **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a macro vacuum period, and the core contradiction returns to the fundamentals. Rebar's supply - demand balance improves marginally, while hot - rolled coil has high inventory [22][23] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is in oscillatory operation, and the port inventory is in a cumulative trend [23][24] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term price may face adjustment pressure, but the medium - to - long - term coal coke is suitable for long - allocation [24][25][26] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are in a situation of high inventory and weak demand, and are expected to oscillate [26] - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory has increased more than expected, and it will oscillate in the 60 - 65 range in the short - to - medium term [28][29][30] - **LPG**: It is in strong - level oscillation, with a neutral - to - good fundamental situation but high valuation [30][31] - **PTA - PX**: The short - term supply - demand is strong, but the PTA over - supply expectation is difficult to change [32][35] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The short - term EG rebounds at a low level, but the long - term valuation is under pressure [36][38] - **PP**: It will oscillate at the bottom, with supply pressure and improved demand during the "Double Eleven" [39][40][41] - **PE**: It will rebound at the bottom, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change [42][44] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term disk follows pure benzene to strengthen, but the benzene - ethylene destocking pressure is large [44][45] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur cracking has an upward driving force [45][48] - **Asphalt**: It is weakly viewed in the short term, with a loose supply - demand pattern and cost - side influence [49][50] - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: They are expected to slowly rise in oscillation, with the expected strength pattern of RU>NR>BR [51][52] - **Urea**: The short - term market is stable and strong due to export quota increase, but high - supply pressure exists [52][53] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash**: The price is restricted by high inventory, but there is cost support below [53][54] - **Glass**: The 01 contract may decline towards the end, but there is cost support in the long term [55] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot is weak, and the long - term production pressure continues [56] - **Pulp and Offset Paper** - **Pulp**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with multiple long and short factors intertwined [57] - **Offset Paper**: The futures price is expected to weaken and stabilize [58] - **Log**: The grid strategy and option double - selling can continue to be configured [58]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings. Core Views - The US government shutdown is likely to end, which may boost market sentiment. The US dollar index may face downward pressure, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, showing a trend of "oscillating at the bottom with a slow downward shift" [3][4]. - Stock index futures are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern, with the support from policies and the impact of the end of the US government shutdown on market sentiment [4]. - Treasury bonds are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and mid - term long positions can be held [5]. - In the commodity market, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; aluminum is in a high - level oscillation, while alumina is in a weak operation; zinc is in a strong - side oscillation; nickel and stainless steel have limited upward momentum; tin is expected to run strongly; lead is in a strong - side oscillation [6][7][9][10][11][17]. - In the black market, steel products are expected to oscillate within a certain range, iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term, coking coal and coke are in an adjustment phase, and ferroalloys are expected to oscillate [19][20][21][23]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to oscillate within the range of 60 - 65 dollars per barrel in the medium and short term; LPG is affected by the decline of crude oil; PTA - PX is expected to oscillate strongly with the cost side; methanol 01 may continue to decline to find support; PP and PE are in a bottom - side and low - level oscillation respectively; pure benzene and styrene have limited upward momentum; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a low - level game with a weak expectation [25][26][29][32][35][37][38]. - In the agricultural product market, pigs are waiting for the bottom - building; oilseeds are waiting for the USDA report; oils and fats are in a short - term oscillation; soybeans are in a high - level oscillation; corn and starch are in a bottom - side oscillation; cotton is running strongly in the short term; sugar is concerned about the 5500 level; eggs are generally bearish in the long term; apples are running strongly [47][49][50][52][53][54][56][58][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Domestic price index rebounds marginally, driven by low - base effect and anti - involution. Boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction. Overseas, the focus is on liquidity tension, US government shutdown, and US dollar index rebound. The US government shutdown may end, and the labor market is cooling [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within 7.09 - 7.14 this week, showing a trend of "oscillating at the bottom with a slow downward shift", but the possibility of a sharp unilateral depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB in the short term is low [4]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated yesterday, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking. The long - position entry willingness increased, and the index is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market oscillated yesterday. The central bank will maintain a suitable monetary and financial environment, but the market is expected to oscillate before the central bank releases new signals. Mid - term long positions can be held [5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot market procurement sentiment slightly improved, and the futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation within the range of 86000 - 87000 [6][7]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is affected by funds, and the short - term chasing of high prices needs to be cautious; alumina is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; cast aluminum alloy can be considered for a long - short strategy based on the price difference with aluminum [7][8][9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is in a high - level narrow - range oscillation. The smelting end may reduce production in November, and the inventory may decrease. It is expected to have an upward drive [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The demand is weak in the off - season, the cost support is loosening, and the upward momentum is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is expected to run strongly, with a support level around 276,000 yuan [11][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a long - short game, with a short - term view of oscillating strongly, but the risk of a callback needs to be vigilant [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [14][15]. - **Lead**: The lead price is pulled up by long - position funds, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance of rebar has marginally improved, while the coil plate has high inventory and production. The cost of raw materials provides support, but the inventory suppresses the upward drive [19]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price may have a short - term repair space, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the port inventory is in an accumulating trend [19][20]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are in an adjustment phase. The short - term price may face pressure, but the medium - and long - term price decline space is limited, and they are suitable for long - position allocation [21][22]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are affected by high inventory and weak demand, but are supported by the cost side, and are expected to oscillate [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped sharply overnight and is expected to oscillate within the range of 60 - 65 dollars per barrel in the medium and short term, with further downward space [25][26]. - **LPG**: It is affected by the decline of crude oil, and the domestic supply and demand situation has little change [26][27][28]. - **PTA - PX**: Affected by "anti - involution" rumors and demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly with the cost side, but the excess expectation of PTA still exists [29][30][31]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 may continue to decline to find support, and it is recommended to hold the previous short - call options and carry out a 12 - 1 reverse spread [32][33]. - **PP**: It is in a bottom - side oscillation, with the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remaining unchanged, and the upward drive being limited [34][35]. - **PE**: It is in a low - level oscillation, with the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand being difficult to change in the short term [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The upward momentum of pure benzene and styrene is limited, and the market is biased towards a bearish sentiment [38]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They are in a low - level game with a weak expectation. Soda ash has cost support but limited upward elasticity; glass has a cold - repair expectation; caustic soda has an increasing market pressure [38][39][41]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: They are waiting for the bottom - building. The long - term can be bullish strategically, but the short - term is still based on fundamentals [47][48]. - **Oilseeds**: Attention should be paid to the USDA report. The outer - market soybean price is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward shift, and the inner - market soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different trends [49][50]. - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a short - term oscillation, lacking a clear drive [50]. - **Soybeans**: They are in a high - level oscillation, with the price being in a stalemate and the purchase by the state reserve limiting the downward space [51][52]. - **Corn and Starch**: The price is driven by the reduction of supply, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [52][53]. - **Cotton**: It is running strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [53][54]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the 5500 level, affected by factors such as production and export [56][57]. - **Eggs**: They are generally bearish in the long term, with the production capacity facing a turning point [58]. - **Apples**: They are running strongly, with the inventory lower than last year and the market trading actively [58][59][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 99 - 101, and the US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate is expected to operate between 7.09 - 7.14. Towards the end of the year, the US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate may show a "shifting bottom in fluctuations" trend [3]. - The stock index is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, focusing on the repair of the domestic fundamentals and overseas liquidity [4]. - For treasury bonds, it is recommended to buy on dips, with mid - term long positions held and empty positions bought in batches on dips [5]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and it is advisable to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips [9]. - Copper prices will continue to seek a balance point, with different fluctuation ranges depending on downstream procurement volume [12]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, alumina to operate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy to fluctuate at a high level [13][14][16]. - Zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly, tin to fluctuate narrowly, and lithium carbonate futures to fluctuate strongly between 77,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [16][17]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely, and lead to fluctuate mainly [19][20]. - Steel products are expected to fluctuate within a range, and iron ore prices are expected to continue a weak trend [23][26]. - Coking coal and coke prices may face short - term adjustments, and ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - Crude oil is in a narrow - range fluctuation, LPG is expected to fluctuate strongly, PX - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, and MEG - bottle chips are difficult to break downward in the short term but are under long - term pressure [30][34][35]. - Methanol 01 is looking for support, PP is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, PE is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate at a low level without upward momentum [38][40][43][44]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is bearish, low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to consolidate at a low level, and urea prices are expected to be stable and strong in the short term [45][46][47]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, the reality is weak but the cost is strong. Paper pulp may fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate [48][53]. - For live pigs, it is waiting for the bottom - building, and for oilseeds, attention should be paid to the release of this week's USDA report [55]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's price index has marginally rebounded. The export growth rate has significantly declined due to base disturbances, and boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: In the previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower. In October, China's foreign trade maintained growth, and the foreign exchange reserve and gold reserve increased [2]. - **Core Viewpoints on Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 99 - 101, and the US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate is expected to operate between 7.09 - 7.14 [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed slightly lower in the previous trading day. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, focusing on the domestic fundamentals and overseas liquidity [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell back after high - level fluctuations last week. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The precious metals market fluctuated narrowly last week. It is in a short - term adjustment phase, and mid - term buying opportunities on dips should be noted [7][9]. - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated last week. Macro factors are bearish, and the price will continue to seek a balance point [9][12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is affected by funds, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy follows aluminum prices [13][14][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fluctuated strongly last week, with a certain upward drive [16]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly, with a stable 290,000 yuan pressure level and high - level consolidation expected [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price strengthened last week. It is expected to fluctuate strongly between 77,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are expected to fluctuate widely, with a weak fundamental situation [18][19]. - **Lead**: Lead prices fluctuated narrowly, and are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term [20]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They fell weakly last week. Steel products are expected to fluctuate within a range, with high de - stocking pressure on coils [21][23]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are under pressure from both macro and fundamental aspects and are expected to continue a weak trend [23][26]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices may face short - term adjustments, and coking coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black metal sector in the medium - to - long term [26]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are expected to fluctuate, with high inventory and weak demand [27]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is in a narrow - range fluctuation, with weak short - term momentum and long - term pressure [30]. - **LPG**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but lacks further upward drive [30]. - **PX - PTA**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, but the PTA oversupply situation is difficult to change [31][34]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are difficult to break downward in the short term but are under long - term pressure [35]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 is looking for support, with port pressure difficult to relieve [38]. - **PP**: It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with high supply and weak demand [39][40]. - **PE**: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a difficult - to - change supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level without upward momentum [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to consolidate at a low level [45][46]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are expected to be stable and strong in the short term, with high supply but supported by export policies [47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The reality is weak but the cost is strong, with different trends for each [48][50]. - **Paper Pulp & Offset Paper**: Paper pulp may fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate [53]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to maintain a weak pattern, with a loose supply situation [54]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: They are waiting for the bottom - building, and the long - term can be bullish, but the medium - and short - term are based on fundamentals [55]. - **Oilseeds**: Attention should be paid to the release of this week's USDA report, with the import of soybeans and the supply and demand of domestic soybean meal having their own characteristics [55].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests a potential short-term shift in market style towards small-cap stocks due to high market sentiment and the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may lead to a weaker dollar providing support for the market [2][6] - Large-cap growth stocks, which have seen significant price increases, may face a phase of adjustment due to high valuations and pressure from performance verification [2][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with reasonable valuations and clear industry trends while being cautious of the adjustment risks associated with high-priced large-cap stocks [2][6] Group 2 - In the equity market, the style has shifted towards small-cap stocks, and the value style has gained preference over growth [8][10] - The volatility of both large-cap and value-growth styles has decreased, indicating a more stable market environment [8][10] - The market structure shows an increase in the dispersion of excess returns across industries, while the speed of industry rotation has decreased, and the proportion of rising constituent stocks has declined [8][10] Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of the non-ferrous and energy chemical sectors has increased, while other sectors have seen a decline in trend strength [13][14] - The volatility of most sectors has risen, except for agricultural products, indicating increased market uncertainty [13][14] - Liquidity performance varies across sectors, suggesting differing levels of market activity [13][14] Group 4 - In the options market, the implied volatility levels for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 have remained stable, but there is an increasing skew towards put options, indicating heightened risk hedging by market participants [18] - The ratio of open interest between put and call options continues to rise, reflecting a growing concern about potential risks [18] Group 5 - The convertible bond market has shown a slight recovery, with the premium rate for conversion remaining stable and showing a small upward trend [20] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has rebounded, indicating a shift in investor interest [20] - Market transaction volumes have increased, suggesting a more active trading environment [20]

- The report covers the period from October 27, 2025, to October 31, 2025[2][11] - The market sentiment remains high, with a potential shift towards small-cap stocks due to valuation pressures and performance verification issues in large-cap growth stocks[3][11] - Market style trends indicate a preference for small-cap and value stocks, with decreased volatility in both large-cap vs. small-cap and value vs. growth styles[12][14] - Market structure shows an increase in industry excess return dispersion, a decrease in industry rotation speed, and a decline in the proportion of rising constituent stocks[12][14] - Trading concentration has decreased, with the top 100 stocks' trading volume share declining and the top 5 industries' trading volume share remaining stable[12][14] - Market activity has seen an increase in volatility and mixed performance in turnover rates[13][14] - Commodity market trends show an increase in trend strength for non-ferrous metals and energy chemicals, a decrease in basis momentum across all sectors, and an increase in volatility except for agricultural products[26][33] - Option market analysis indicates stable implied volatility levels for SSE 50 and CSI 1000, with an increase in put option skewness and a decrease in call option skewness for CSI 1000, suggesting heightened risk hedging by market participants[37][38] - Convertible bond market shows a slight recovery, with stable and rising premium rates for bonds convertible at par and a rebound in the proportion of low premium convertible bonds[39][41]

金融期货早评 宏观：关注美国就业数据 【市场资讯】1）中俄总理第三十次定期会晤联合公报：深化北极航道、人工智能与信息技 术合作。2）中国商务部评安世半导体相关问题：荷方继续一意孤行，且无解决问题实际行 动，希望荷方停止干涉企业内部事务。3）美国最高法院周三见分晓，特朗普关税命运系于 其亲手任命的三位大法官；美财长贝森特自称将前往最高院、强调关税的重要性。4）美国 参议院未通过拨款法案，联邦政府"停摆"将破纪录。 【核心逻辑】"十五五"规划建议稿正式发布，可依据规划建议稿明确的重点领域，锁定未 来核心关注方向。同时，中美经贸团队于吉隆坡磋商达成阶段性共识，将在未来一年内减 弱关税政策对市场的扰动，边际提升市场风险偏好，推动相关资产逐步回归基本面定价。 中美贸易摩擦本质上是一场持久战，矛盾的缓和需要时间积累，难以通过单次磋商实现根 本性突破，后续仍需关注双方政策的落地执行及长期博弈动态。制造业 PMI 边际回落，供 需均有所走弱，后续经济仍需政策支撑。海外方面，随着美国降息落地，后续市场关注的 重点或转向为关注美国政府停摆期间的就业、通胀情况，特别是关注 ADP 数据，同时，市 场另一大关注点则为美国政府究竟何时 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is expected to be boosted by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and Sino-US trade negotiations, with short - term strength and small - cap stocks relatively stronger [3][4]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.15, while import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 7.10 [2][3]. - The shipping index (European Line) futures are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward shift, and a long - biased strategy can be considered [6][7][10]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase but will continue to rise in the medium term. Attention should be paid to mid - term buying opportunities [12][15]. - Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the first half of the week and show a clear direction in the second half, with the uncertainty lying in Sino - US trade negotiations [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be in high - level oscillation, alumina in weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy in high - level oscillation [20]. - Zinc is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [21]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be in a state of oscillation, waiting for clear signals [22]. - Tin is expected to be in high - level oscillation [23]. - Carbonate lithium futures are expected to be in a range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton with a slightly upward - biased oscillation [23][24][25]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and investors should be cautious [25][26][27]. - Lead is expected to be in high - level oscillation, and option double - selling can be considered to earn premiums [27][28]. - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly, and iron ore prices are under pressure [30][31]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the potential negative feedback from steel mills may limit the upside [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have limited upside space [32][33]. - Crude oil prices have rebounded but face the risk of a pull - back, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [35][36]. - LPG prices are expected to be strong in the short term [37][38]. - PTA - PX prices are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation following the macro trend [39][40][41]. - MEG - bottle chips are expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and a short - selling strategy can be considered at high prices [42][43]. - Urea prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [43][44]. - PP has an over - supply situation and limited fluctuation space [45][46]. - PE is mainly driven by the macro and cost factors, with a weak self - driving force [47][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene should pay attention to macro trends and crude oil prices, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [49][50]. - Fuel oil's cracking upside is limited, and low - sulfur fuel oil has weak upward driving force [50][51]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost increases, and short - term waiting or short - selling at pressure levels is recommended [52]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity; glass is in a situation of high - level inventory and weak sales, and the game will continue until close to delivery; caustic soda's short - term maintenance may support prices [52][53][54]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [55]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Key events include Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, the speech of Takaichi Sanae, and the slowdown of the US core CPI growth rate in September [1][2]. - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter declined as expected, and the GDP deflator showed a recovery trend. Fiscal policies are being implemented to support the economy, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the "14th Five - Year Plan" draft, and the RMB exchange rate [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1230 on the previous trading day, down 9 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.0928, down 10 basis points [2]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and the US dollar index has fluctuated. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting [2]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated upward in the previous trading day, with small - cap stocks performing strongly. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 3303.00 billion yuan [3]. - Affected by the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and Sino - US trade negotiations, the stock index is expected to be strong in the short term, and small - cap stocks are relatively stronger [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market fluctuated and declined last week, and the capital market was loose [5]. - Affected by the "14th Five - Year Plan" goals, the A - share market rose, and the bond market was under pressure. Attention should be paid to low - level layout opportunities [5]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index (European Line) futures rebounded on October 24, with the main contract EC2512 rising 3.14% [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include Sino - US economic and trade consultations, shipping companies' price - support strategies, and port operation disruptions. Negative factors include the expected resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, weak supply - demand fundamentals, and macro risks [7][8][9]. Precious Metals - Precious metals were adjusted last week, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Silver's short - term squeeze has ended, and the short - term safe - haven sentiment has weakened [12]. - The inventory of gold and silver ETFs decreased last week, and the COMEX and SHFE inventories also changed [13]. Copper - The domestic copper price rose last week, with the Shanghai copper weighted index trading volume and open interest increasing. The external copper price was weaker than the domestic price [16]. - The production and sales of Freeport - McMoRan decreased in the third quarter, and China's anode copper imports were at a low level in 2025. The operating rate of domestic copper rod enterprises decreased, and consumption was weak [17]. - Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the first half of the week and show a clear direction in the second half, with the uncertainty lying in Sino - US trade negotiations [17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The Shanghai aluminum price was strong last week, and the alumina price was weak. The cast aluminum alloy price followed the Shanghai aluminum price [20]. - The macro policy affects the Shanghai aluminum price, and the overseas supply of aluminum has been disturbed. Alumina is in a situation of over - supply, and the cost support is not stable [20]. Zinc - The zinc price was in high - level oscillation last trading day. The external zinc price was supported by low inventory, and the Shanghai zinc price was driven up [21]. - The supply of domestic smelting is stable, and the overseas supply has decreased. The price difference has widened, and the LME zinc price is rising. Attention should be paid to the opening of the export window [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel prices rose slightly last trading day [22]. - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel have not changed significantly. The new regulations on nickel ore quotas in Indonesia are stricter, and the demand for new energy is strong. The price of nickel iron has declined, and the stainless steel price is expected to be in wide - range oscillation [22]. Tin - The Shanghai tin price was in high - level oscillation last trading day, and the fundamentals have not changed. The supply of tin is weaker than the demand, and the short - term support is around 276,000 yuan [23]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price rose last week, with the trading volume and open interest increasing [23]. - The spot market of the lithium - battery industry was active last week. The supply of lithium salt is expected to increase in October, and the demand for downstream lithium - battery materials is expected to increase by the end of the year [24][25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures price rose slightly last week, while the polysilicon futures price fell [25][26]. - The supply of industrial silicon is under pressure, and the downstream operating rate is declining. The polysilicon industry is in a situation of production reduction and inventory accumulation [26][27]. Lead - The Shanghai lead price was in high - level oscillation last trading day. The environmental protection policy in Hebei has affected the transportation of lead, and the supply of lead is in a tight - balance situation [27][28]. Black Metals - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rebounded slightly last week. The profit of steel mills decreased, and the production of crude steel is expected to decline slightly. The price of iron ore is under pressure due to over - supply [30][31]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be strong in the short term, but the potential negative feedback from steel mills may limit the upside. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have limited upside space [32][33]. Crude Oil - The Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices rose last week [35]. - The crude oil market is boosted by geopolitical and macro factors, but there is a risk of over - shooting. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [36]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose last week. The supply of LPG decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The port inventory decreased [37]. - The LPG price is expected to be strong in the short term, driven by geopolitical and macro factors [38]. PTA - PX - The PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the PTA supply is expected to increase. The polyester demand is stable, and the terminal demand has improved marginally [39][40]. - The PTA - PX price is expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation following the macro trend [41]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The inventory of MEG in East China ports increased. The supply of MEG decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The bottle - chip processing fee has been repaired [42][43]. - The MEG price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and a short - selling strategy can be considered at high prices [43]. Urea - The urea futures price rose last week, and the spot price was firm. The inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased significantly [43][44]. - The urea price is expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [44]. PP - The PP futures price fell slightly last week. The supply of PP decreased slightly, and the demand had some elasticity. The inventory decreased [45][46]. - The PP has an over - supply situation and limited fluctuation space [46]. PE - The PE futures price fell slightly last week. The supply of PE is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The inventory increased slightly [47][48]. - PE is mainly driven by the macro and cost factors, with a weak self - driving force [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene price is expected to be weak due to over - supply and weak demand. The benzene - ethylene supply is expected to increase, and the de - stocking pressure is large [49][50]. - Pure benzene and styrene should pay attention to macro trends and crude oil prices, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [50]. Fuel Oil - The cracking upside of high - sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has weak upward driving force [50][51]. Asphalt - The asphalt price increased last week. The supply of asphalt decreased, and the demand was flat. The inventory structure improved [52]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost increases, and short - term waiting or short - selling at pressure levels is recommended [52]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity. Glass is in a situation of high - level inventory and weak sales, and the game will continue until close to delivery. Caustic soda's short - term maintenance may support prices [52][53][54]. Pulp and Offset Paper - The prices of pulp and offset paper futures rose last week. The spot price of pulp was stable [55]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [55].

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Hongda announced the convening of its 11th board meeting for 2025, where the third quarter report was reviewed, indicating ongoing corporate governance and financial oversight [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Guangdong Hongda's revenue composition was as follows: mining accounted for 70.36%, civil explosives and other income for 15.11%, energy and chemical business for 12.85%, defense equipment for 0.88%, and other industries for 0.8% [1] Market Position - As of the report, Guangdong Hongda's market capitalization stood at 29 billion yuan [1]