来源：市场资讯 （来源：南京玛合雅） 一、【市场关注】 1、据外电消息，周三公布的一项调查显示，由于出口下滑，同时当月产量创下纪录，马来西亚11月棕 榈油库存可能升至六年半高位。作为全球第二大棕榈油生产国，马来西亚库存上升可能给基准马来西亚 棕榈油期货带来压力，目前该期货价格徘徊在近五个月低点附近。10位交易商、种植商和分析师的预估 中值显示，11月棕榈油库存预计环比增长7.78%，达到266万吨，为2019年4月以来的最高水平。毛棕榈 油产量估计为198万吨，较上月下降3%，但仍是有记录以来最高的11月产量。这一降幅比过去25年11月 平均6.8%的降幅要温和。在有利天气、劳动力供应改善以及高产新种植园的支持下，产量预计将连续 第二个月徘徊在200万吨左右。预计这将推动全年毛棕榈油产量有史以来首次突破2,000万吨。在连续两 个月增长之后，棕榈油产品出口量预计下降14.9%，至144万吨。 二、【每日豆油现货报价】 | 市场 | 品名 | 等级 | 包装方式 | RMS | 家 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1844 | 成品大豆油 | 国标一级 | 散 ...

近日，中信期货研究所所长王稹在"中信期货2025年中策略会"发表演讲并接受期货日报专访。王稹表 示，2025年宏观形势复杂多变，全球经贸秩序正在重构。尽管面临中美贸易摩擦、工业品价格低迷、房 地产市场疲软等诸多挑战，中国经济凭借政策的协同发力、多元的产业结构、稳定的内需支撑及不断增 强的创新能力，叠加"抢出口"和"抢转口"，展现出了强劲的韧性。 大宗商品压力与机遇并存 前瞻研究重要性提升 王稹分析，大宗商品行业在压力与机遇并存的态势下前行，如黄金表现出长期配置价值，工业品中的原 油和铜的边际驱动走向分化。他特别提到，上半年，各种不确定性因素加大了国内期货品种的价格波 动，实体企业的风险管理面临更加复杂的研判环境。因此，王稹强调，在市场节奏和风格快速切换的环 境中，期货研究更需与时俱进、前瞻布局。 研究策略升级 构建"双向"研究能力 为了适应错综复杂的内外部环境，王稹认为，期货公司需要持续优化研究布局与综合分析体系，着力构 建"双向"研究能力。 一是提升"从宏观看期货"的能力。中信期货研究所今年上半年加强了国际贸易与航运、新兴行业与商品 等研究，深化了全球产业布局与结构、国内外价格联动及策略等多维度分析。二是提 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated May 29, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [2][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Palm oil: There are still risks in the origin, and it is oscillating to find the bottom [3] - Soybean oil: The driving force of the soybean system is weak, and it is oscillating within a range [3] - Soybean meal: The overnight US soybeans closed lower, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate weakly [3] - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is still oscillating weakly [3] - Corn: Oscillating strongly [3] - Sugar: The raw sugar has broken through the support level and declined [3] - Cotton: The demand has entered the off - season, and the cotton price lacks the upward momentum [3] - Eggs: Waiting for the verification of culling after the Dragon Boat Festival [3] - Hogs: Passive inventory accumulation has formed, and a trend reverse spread should be arranged [3] - Peanuts: Oscillating [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil 3.1.1 Fundamental Tracking - Palm oil futures: The daytime closing price was up 0.40%, and the night - time closing price was down 0.10%. The trading volume increased by 65,001 lots, and the open interest increased by 29,216 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 524 yuan/ton [5][6] - Soybean oil futures: The daytime closing price was 8,076 yuan/ton, down 0.36%, and the night - time closing price was 8,068 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The trading volume increased by 17,183 lots, and the open interest increased by 3,026 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,060 yuan/ton, with a basis of 348 yuan/ton [6] 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - Malaysia is worried about being classified as a "standard risk" country by the EU under the new EUDR. The classification is based on old data, and Malaysia believes it should be "low - risk." This may lead to palm oil producers being excluded from the EU market [7][8] - Sarawak has produced 485 million tons of oil palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB), an increase of 8.6% year - on - year. The crude palm oil (CPO) production increased by 3.7% to 91 million tons. The oil extraction rate has declined [9] - Indonesia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to $856.38 per ton, and the export tariff will be $52 per ton, lower than last month [9] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean 3.2.1 Fundamental Tracking - DCE soybean meal 2509: The daytime closing price was 2,961 yuan/ton, up 0.10%, and the night - time closing price was 2,963 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume of soybean meal in the main producing areas was 9.1 million tons per day, and the inventory was 21.58 million tons per week [15] - DCE soybean 2507: The daytime closing price was 4,119 yuan/ton, down 0.34%, and the night - time closing price was 4,102 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [15] 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - On May 28, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to the accelerated spring sowing pace and slowed demand. As of Sunday, the US soybean planting was 76% complete [15][17] - Pakistan has lifted the ban on some US genetically modified soybeans, and the US has sold 225,000 tons of soybeans to Pakistan, with delivery starting on September 1 [17] 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The daytime closing price of C2507 was 2,325 yuan/ton, up 0.26%, and the night - time closing price was 2,328 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The trading volume decreased by 65,607 lots, and the open interest decreased by 35,957 lots [19] - The daytime closing price of C2509 was 2,349 yuan/ton, up 0.21%, and the night - time closing price was 2,351 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume decreased by 5,237 lots, and the open interest increased by 8,978 lots [19] 3.3.2 Macro and Industry News - The northern corn collection price at ports is 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou is 2,390 - 2,410 yuan/ton. The corn price in Northeast China is oscillating narrowly, and the price in North China is rising [20] 3.4 Sugar 3.4.1 Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price was 16.91 cents per pound, down 0.34. The futures main contract price was 5,795 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The mainstream spot price was 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [24] 3.4.2 Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress is slower year - on - year. The USDA expects the global sugar production to increase by 4.73% in the 25/26 season. Brazil's exports in April decreased by 18% year - on - year. As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons [24] - CAOC expects China's sugar production to be 11.15 million tons in the 24/25 season and 11.2 million tons in the 25/26 season [25] 3.5 Cotton 3.5.1 Fundamental Tracking - The daytime closing price of CF2509 was 13,330 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the night - time closing price was 13,245 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The trading volume decreased by 99,405 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,073 lots [29] - The daytime closing price of CY2507 was 19,635 yuan/ton, up 0.33%, and the night - time closing price was 19,525 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The trading volume decreased by 1,999 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,045 lots [29] 3.5.2 Macro and Industry News - The domestic cotton spot trading has slightly improved, and the spinning mills' procurement is more active. The spot basis is still firm. The cotton yarn market trading atmosphere has weakened, and the downstream new orders are insufficient [30] - The ICE cotton decreased slightly yesterday, affected by the rising US dollar and the decline of other agricultural products [30] 3.6 Eggs 3.6.1 Fundamental Tracking - The daytime closing price of eggs 2507 was 2,882 yuan/500 kg, down 0.59%. The trading volume decreased by 68,051 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8,957 lots [33] - The daytime closing price of eggs 2509 was 3,722 yuan/500 kg, down 0.37%. The trading volume decreased by 15,866 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,405 lots [33] 3.6.2 Macro and Industry News - Not provided in the report 3.7 Hogs 3.7.1 Fundamental Tracking - The spot price in Henan was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of hogs 2507 was 13,260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [35] - The trading volume of hogs 2507 was 4,529 lots, up 73 lots, and the open interest was 23,724 lots, down 1,327 lots [35] 3.7.2 Macro and Industry News - Passive inventory accumulation has formed in May. The second - fattening group is worried about the policy restrictions, and the inventory accumulation has accelerated. A trend reverse spread should be arranged [37] 3.8 Peanuts 3.8.1 Fundamental Tracking - The daytime closing price of PK510 was 8,352 yuan/ton, up 0.60%. The trading volume decreased by 6,477 lots, and the open interest increased by 2,187 lots [38] - The daytime closing price of PK511 was 8,234 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The trading volume decreased by 5,239 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,222 lots [38] 3.8.2 Macro and Industry News - The spot price of peanuts in various regions is mostly rising. The supply of peanuts from farmers is limited, and the trading is relatively active. China has allowed the import of Brazilian corn distillers' grains and peanut meal [38][39][41]