1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report International - The US soybean market's supply - demand pattern has shifted to a loose state under the influence of the unexpectedly bearish USDA January supply - demand report. Although the strong domestic crushing demand provides some support for prices, it cannot offset the weak external demand. The expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress market sentiment, with the increased production forecast in Brazil setting the tone for global supply abundance. The continuous drought in the Argentine production area adds weather premium and is the main uncertain factor. Overall, the US soybean market faces double pressure from inventory accumulation in the US and intensified competition from South America, limiting the price rebound space [4][96]. Domestic - The domestic soybean market shows characteristics of loose external and stable internal conditions. The spot price of imported soybeans is stable, while the price of domestic soybeans rises supported by supply and demand. The overall market supply is abundant. The previous commitment to concentrated procurement of US soybeans has been mostly fulfilled, and future procurement will focus on South American new crops with more price advantages. The operating rate of domestic oil mills peaks driven by pre - Spring Festival stocking, but the crushing profit is severely squeezed. High upstream costs and high downstream inventories jointly restrict the industry's profit space. As the Spring Festival stocking demand nears the end, the boosting effect on soybean meal consumption weakens, and inventory reduction is slow. The domestic soybean market is supported by festival stocking in the short term, but will face multiple challenges in the medium term, such as the concentrated arrival of low - priced South American soybeans, high domestic inventories, and weak downstream breeding demand. After the stocking market, the logic of loose supply will dominate the market again [4][96]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review 1.1 Soybean Spot Prices Fluctuate Differently - At the end of January 2026, the spot price of imported second - grade soybeans in Zhangjiagang was 3,920 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 30 yuan compared to the end of December 2025. The spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in the Nenjiang area of the Heilongjiang soybean production area was 4,060 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan [10]. 1.2 Bean Futures Prices: Raw Materials Stronger than Finished Products - Since January 2026, the price center of bean No. 1 futures has generally risen, from 4,240 yuan/ton to around 4,370 yuan/ton, with spot and futures prices rising in tandem. The price of bean No. 2 futures fluctuated strongly. After three consecutive weeks of consolidation, it broke upwards. Since the spot price remained strong during the same period, the basis of bean No. 2 remained at a relatively high level. The price of soybean meal futures was mainly in consolidation, following the pace of US soybean futures but overall weaker than US soybeans, mainly due to the relatively loose domestic supply [12]. 2. The USDA Report is Unexpectedly Bearish, and South American Weather Topics Continue to Simmer 2.1 US Soybean Data is Unexpectedly Bearish; Strong Domestic Demand Cannot Offset Weak Exports - The USDA's January supply - demand report on January 12, 2026, significantly revised the US soybean data, with core adjustments including increased production, decreased exports, and increased inventory. The US soybean production in the 2025/26 season was unexpectedly raised to 4.262 billion bushels, an increase of 9 million bushels from the December report. The increase was mainly due to the increase in the harvested area from 80.3 million acres to 80.4 million acres. The domestic crushing demand was strong, with the estimated domestic crushing volume raised from 2.555 billion bushels to 2.570 billion bushels. However, the export demand shrank significantly, with the export volume estimate cut by 60 million bushels from 1.635 billion bushels to 1.575 billion bushels. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season soared from 290 million bushels to 350 million bushels, reaching a six - year high. The farm - level annual average price estimate for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was lowered from $10.50 per bushel to $10.20 per bushel [16][17]. 2.2 South American Production Area Weather Topics Simmer; High - Yield Expectations Face Adjustment - In January 2026, the weather in South American soybean production areas showed significant regional differentiation. In Brazil, although a record - high yield is expected, weather disturbances bring uncertainties to harvesting and later growth. In Argentina, continuous drought has caused substantial damage to crop growth, and the production forecast faces downward pressure. In Brazil, the southeast has heavy rain and the south has extreme heat. Heavy rain in the southeast and central - west core production areas has delayed the mechanical harvesting of early soybeans and squeezed the sowing window for second - crop corn. The high - temperature and dry weather in the south has threatened the growth of soybeans and corn. In Argentina, since December 2025, the core agricultural areas have suffered from continuous drought, leading to a sharp deterioration in soil moisture, affecting soybean growth, and causing a decline in the proportion of good - quality crops and suitable soil moisture [22][23][25]. 2.3 US Soybean Crushing Volume Remains High; Strong Domestic Demand is Still an Important Support - The NOPA's January monthly crushing data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in December reached the second - highest level in history, slightly higher than market expectations. The crushing volume in December was 224.994 million bushels, a 4.1% increase from November and an 8.9% increase from December 2024. The USDA's January supply - demand report predicted that the US soybean crushing volume in the 2025/26 season would be 2.570 billion bushels, higher than the December forecast and a 5.11% increase from the previous year. The high crushing volume is driven by multiple factors, including rigid domestic demand for soybean meal, biodiesel policies supporting soybean oil consumption, and indirect export market pull [26][28]. 2.4 The Peak US Soybean Export Period Ends; the Competition between North and South American Soybeans Begins - The US soybean export pattern is undergoing a profound structural adjustment. The total US soybean export volume is under pressure, with a significant reduction in the export volume estimate from 1.635 billion bushels to 1.575 billion bushels. This is due to the continuous and rapid expansion of South American production capacity and the strong domestic crushing demand in the US, which reduces the supply for export and weakens its international price competitiveness. China's purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans has provided short - term support for US soybean exports, but after fulfilling the commitment, China will turn to South American new crops. The price competitiveness of US soybeans compared to South American soybeans will be a decisive factor in future exports [32][33]. 3. Domestic Soybean Supply is Abundant; Spring Festival Stocking Demand is Nearing the End 3.1 China Fulfills the US Soybean Purchase Commitment; Future Procurement Turns to South America - In January 2026, domestic imported soybean procurement has evolved into refined cost management and supply - chain balance under multiple constraints. Brazil has a dominant position in China's soybean imports. China has basically completed the concentrated procurement of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season, with the actual procurement approaching or exceeding 10 million tons, over 80% of the 12 - million - ton target. The focus is now shifting to South American new crops. The procurement decision is driven by profit accounting and inventory adjustment. The state reserve has been conducting soybean auctions since January, which has supplemented the immediate supply and strengthened the expectation of loose future supply, suppressing the purchasing enthusiasm of oil mills [46][47]. 3.2 Oil Mill Operating Rate Peaks before the Festival; Crushing Profit Space is Severely Squeezed - The domestic soybean crushing industry is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. The crushing profit is severely squeezed. High import costs and limited downstream soybean meal price increases due to high inventory have led to poor profit conditions for oil mills. The operating rate of oil mills increased significantly in mid - to late January to meet the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, but it is expected to decline after the stocking demand is released. The soybean meal market has a high inventory level with slow reduction and limited demand boost. In the future, the domestic soybean crushing industry may face a decline in the operating rate, and the crushing profit will continue to be squeezed [60][61]. 4. Excess Supply and Weak Demand Coexist; Pig Prices Continue to Bottom Out 4.1 Pig Prices Rebound and then Come under Pressure Again; the Industry Remains at the Bottom of the Cycle - In January 2026, the domestic pig market was in a complex game between the traditional consumption peak season and high supply, showing the characteristics of a weak peak season and industry pressure. Pig prices did not show a unilateral upward trend but rebounded slightly and then came under pressure again. The industry was still at the bottom of the cycle, with self - breeding and self - raising of pigs still incurring an average loss of about 33 yuan per head as of early January. Major listed pig enterprises increased their slaughter volume but saw a decline in sales revenue due to lower average prices [75]. 4.2 Pig Production Capacity is Reduced Slowly; Market Supply Pressure Remains Heavy - The official inventory data shows that the number of sows capable of reproduction is slowly decreasing, but the absolute quantity is still high. As of the end of 2025, the national inventory of sows capable of reproduction was 39.61 million, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease, still slightly higher than the balanced level. In 2025, the national pig slaughter volume reached 720 million, and the pork output was 59.38 million tons. In late January 2026, the short - term market supply pressure increased significantly due to the increased slaughter volume and the concentrated release of fattened pigs by secondary fatteners [76][77]. 4.3 Traditional Pre - Festival Demand is Delayed Overall; Demand Explosiveness is Weakened - Slaughter enterprises are eager to lower the purchase price of pigs to reduce losses, which suppresses market demand. Traders and slaughter enterprises have low willingness to build frozen - product inventories, and the frozen - product inventory level remains low. The Spring Festival in 2026 was about 20 days later than usual, delaying the traditional pre - festival demand peak. Family curing and enema in the south, killing pigs for the New Year in the north, and inventory - building demand from supermarkets and wholesale markets were all weak or delayed, weakening the demand explosiveness [84][86]. 5. Conclusion - The international and domestic soybean market situations are consistent with the core views of the report, with the US soybean market facing pressure and the domestic soybean market showing short - term support and medium - term challenges [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The near - month 03 contract is supported by de - stocking expectations and cost, but the upside is limited due to spot supply - demand relaxation and state - reserve soybean auctions. The 05 contract is bearish under the background of South American harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation [8]. - The three major oils show a differentiated trend in the short term. Soybean and palm oils may stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited by the potentially bearish MPOB December report and South American new - crop soybean harvest expectations. Rapeseed oil is in a weak shock trend due to the expected marginal relaxation of domestic supply - demand and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed products [72]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot End - As of January 9, the East China spot price of soybean meal was 3100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton weekly; the M2605 contract closed at 2786 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton weekly; the basis quote was 05 + 300 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. US soybean prices rebounded from the bottom, supported by China's purchases, but the upside was limited. Domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell, with price pressure after the auction information was released on Thursday [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply End - The market maintains the expectation of a bountiful South American soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season. Global soybean supply growth is lower than demand growth, with ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio declining. In 2025/26, global soybean production is 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. China's soybean imports are expected to be 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year. The supply pattern is tight first and then loose [8]. 3.1.3 Demand End - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high pig and poultry inventories and good cost - performance. In the first week of 2026, the national oil mill soybean inventory rose to 7.1025 million tons, up 8.53% week - on - week and 19.48% year - on - year; the national oil mill soybean meal inventory increased slightly to 1.1702 million tons, up 0.22% week - on - week and 71.18% year - on - year [8]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bu. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it rises to 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of 2025/26 is 1000 cents/bu, and the domestic import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. Brazilian soybean crushing profit has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5 Market Summary - The near - month 03 contract is strongly supported by de - stocking expectations and cost, but the upside is limited. The 05 contract is bearish under the background of South American harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation. The near - strong and far - weak pattern continues [8]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot End - As of the week of January 9, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 98 yuan/ton to 8682 yuan/ton compared with December 31; the Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil rose 90 yuan/ton to 8680 yuan/ton; the palm oil 05 basis fell 8 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton. The soybean oil main 05 contract rose 132 yuan/ton to 7994 yuan/ton; the Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil rose 110 yuan/ton to 8490 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 05 basis fell 22 yuan/ton to 496 yuan/ton. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 9042 yuan/ton; the Fangchenggang Grade 3 rapeseed oil remained at 9920 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 05 basis rose 45 yuan/ton to 878 yuan/ton [72][73]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory in December to rise to 3 million tons, a near - 7 - year high. However, the latest high - frequency data shows a significant decline in production and a sharp increase in exports in January. Indonesia may continue to confiscate plantations and increase export taxes in 2026. In China, palm oil prices have fallen to improve import profits, and new purchases have limited the de - stocking speed. As of the week of January 2, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 733,800 tons [72]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The growth of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season is generally good, and early - sown Brazilian soybeans have started harvesting, competing with US soybeans. The market expects the USDA January report to be bullish, and China's purchases of US soybeans are approaching 10 million tons. The 45Z tax credit rule may stimulate soybean oil biodiesel demand. In China, soybean auctions have resumed, but the seasonal low of soybean arrivals in the first quarter of 2026 and stricter customs inspections help soybean oil de - stock. As of the week of January 2, domestic soybean oil inventory decreased to 1.081 million tons [72]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The tight domestic supply - demand situation is gradually easing. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is expected to be crushed in January, and Russian rapeseed oil exports will be more active after the holiday. The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China may lead to the cancellation of anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed products. As of the week of January 2, domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 270,000 tons [72]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary - In the short term, the three major oils show a differentiated trend. Soybean and palm oils may stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited. Rapeseed oil is in a weak shock trend. In the long term, palm oil will seasonally de - stock in the first quarter of 2026, and soybean oil may rebound, while rapeseed oil will continue to be weak [72]. 3.2.6 Strategy Suggestion - For soybean and palm oils, be cautious about chasing up due to limited short - term rebounds. For rapeseed oil, gradually liquidate previous long positions. Focus on this week's USDA and MPOB reports and China - Canada negotiations [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Report's Core Viewpoint - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and crushing margins are under pressure. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [9][10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International soybeans: US soybeans continued to decline this week. Although purchases from China and a low domestic stocks - to - use ratio in the US provided support, a high global stocks - to - use ratio and slow sales progress limited the upside. Brazilian soybean premiums increased by about 8 cents per bushel, and the arrival cost of soybeans decreased by about 60 yuan/ton. The cost of Brazilian soybeans shipped in February is about 3,624 yuan/ton. Rainfall in Brazilian soybean - growing areas has recovered, but most areas in Argentina expect less rainfall. The USDA forecasts a shift in the global soybean supply - demand pattern, with the global stocks - to - use ratio falling from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom support [9]. - Domestic double - meal: There were delays in domestic arrivals this week. Soybean meal spot prices first fell and then rose, with basis fluctuating. Futures prices were volatile, and oil mills' purchasing profits showed a small loss. Domestic soybean meal transactions were fair, and提货 was at a relatively high level. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were higher year - on - year, and the de - stocking progress was slow. As of December 9, the purchased volumes for September, October, November, and December were 876, 773, 620, and 497 tons respectively. The current purchasing progress indicates that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline, and the high level of domestic soybean meal提货 provides some support for the domestic soybean basis [9]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. The report did not provide specific suggestions for arbitrage trading [11]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot price: The document provides the historical spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18]. - Basis of the main contract: It shows the historical basis trends of the soybean meal 01 contract and the rapeseed meal 01 contract [20][21]. - Spread: The document presents historical spread trends such as soybean meal 01 - 05, soybean meal 03 - 05, soybean meal 05 - rapeseed meal 05, and soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01 [22][23]. - Fund position: It shows the historical net long positions of managed funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal [25][27]. 3. Supply Side - US soybean planting progress: The document provides historical data on US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate [31][32]. - Weather conditions: There is information on rainfall in Argentine and Brazilian soybean - growing areas, and the possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January is mentioned [34][36][37]. - US soybean export progress: The document shows the historical data of US soybeans' total export contracts signed with China in the current market year, the annual sales completion rate, the total export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments to China [49][50]. - China's oilseed imports: It presents the historical monthly import volumes and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [52][53]. - China's oil mill crushing: The document shows the historical soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China [54][55]. 4. Profit and Inventory - Oilseed inventory: It shows the historical port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills in China [58][59]. - Protein meal inventory: The document presents the historical inventory and forecasts of soybean meal in coastal major oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills in China [61][62]. - Protein meal crushing profit: It shows the historical crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas [63][64]. 5. Demand Side - Protein meal demand: The document shows the historical cumulative transactions of soybean meal in major oil mills during the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [65][66]. - Breeding profit: It shows the historical average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the historical breeding profit of white - feather broilers [67][68].

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the bean industry dated June 18, 2025, covering futures market, spot price, upstream and downstream situations, and industry news [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The price of domestic soybeans is expected to remain strong in the short - term, showing the characteristic of "high - quality products at high prices". However, the rational procurement of downstream enterprises will limit the increase of soybean prices. Under the expectation of future supply relaxation, the increase of the overall market is limited. Soybean meal spot price is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating trend, and the overall view on soybean oil is bullish [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the main futures contract of soybean No.1 is 4258 yuan/ton (up 11), soybean No.2 is 3728 yuan/ton (up 10), soybean meal is 3062 yuan/ton (down 12), and soybean oil is 8084 yuan/ton (up 112). The net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions for soybean No.1 is - 4752 hands (down 1371), soybean No.2 is - 4930 hands (down 406), soybean meal is - 436940 hands (down 54580), and soybean oil is - 59021 hands (down 1232) [2] - **CBOT Futures**: The settlement price of the active contract of CBOT soybeans is 1074 cents/bushel (up 4.25), CBOT soybean meal is 285.1 dollars/short - ton (up 1.4), and CBOT soybean oil is 54.79 cents/pound (down 0.32) [2] 3.2 Spot Price - **Domestic Soybeans and Oils**: The domestic soybean spot price is 3960 yuan/ton (unchanged). The soybean oil prices in Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, and Zhanjiang are 8240 yuan/ton (up 80), 8310 yuan/ton (up 80), and 8300 yuan/ton (up 80) respectively. The soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang is 2950 yuan/ton (up 30) [2] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans is 3884 yuan/ton (up 15), and that of Brazilian soybeans is 3822 yuan/ton (up 15) [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Inventory**: The US soybean production is 118.12 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), and the ending inventory is 8.03 million tons (down 2.18 million tons). The Brazilian production is 169 million tons (unchanged), and the ending inventory is 32.31 million tons (up 0.79 million tons) [2] - **Exports and Shipments**: The Brazilian monthly export is 1527.2 million tons (compared with 1420.3 million tons). The weekly export of soybeans is 453353 tons (up 144783 tons) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory and Production**: The port inventory of imported soybeans is 5943320 tons (up 37400 tons), the weekly inventory of soybean meal is 410000 tons (up 27500 tons), and the national port inventory of soybean oil is 780000 tons (up 1500 tons). The weekly oil - mill operating rate is 63.1% (down 0.66%), and the weekly oil - mill crushing volume is 2244600 tons (down 23600 tons) [2] - **Price Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil price spread is - 490 yuan/ton (up 90), the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread is 1440 yuan/ton (up 50), and the soybean - rapeseed meal price spread is 270.53 yuan/ton (up 39.48) [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Consumption and Sales**: The total domestic consumption of soybeans in China is 126.8 million tons (up 5.1 million tons), and the food consumption of soybean oil in China is 18800000 tons (up 900000 tons). The weekly sales volume of oil - mill soybean meal is 1803700 tons (up 1340400 tons), and that of soybean oil is 160250 tons (up 31700 tons) [2] - **Profit and Livestock**: The crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang is 28.4 yuan/ton (up 46.6), and that of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 77.3 yuan/ton (up 30.9). The price of live pigs in Daxing, Beijing is 14.32 yuan/kg (unchanged), and the expected profit of pig - farming per head is 32.28 yuan (down 47.82) [2] 3.6 Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal is 16.8% (up 0.33), and that of at - the - money put options is 16.81% (up 0.34). The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal is 9.79% (down 0.06), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.87% (up 0.1) [2] 3.7 Industry News - In the 24th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, the soybean meal inventory increased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - **Soybean No.1**: Expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term, but the high price acceptance of downstream enterprises is limited [2] - **Soybean No.2**: Supported by the biofuel policy, but with limited upside in the context of future supply relaxation, and tends to oscillate [3] - **Soybean Meal**: With a large amount of soybeans arriving at ports and high oil - mill operating rates, the spot price is expected to continue bottom - oscillating [3] - **Soybean Oil**: Overall bullish, with the US biofuel blending policy clearly lifting the price center [3]