1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the trends of the three major oils were divergent. Palm oil showed the strongest performance among the three, with its futures price rising due to multiple positive factors such as reduced production and increased exports of Malaysian palm oil, and the clarification of the US biodiesel policy. The fundamentals of soybean oil are mixed, with supply - side pressure rising slightly and attention on the Spring Festival stocking. Rapeseed oil may see an increase in supply after March, and the medium - to - long - term futures price may be weak. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [64]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Spot and Futures Prices of Three Major Oils - From January 16 to 23, 2026, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2605) rose from 8674 to 8910, a weekly increase of 2.72%, and the spot price rose from 8630 to 8870, a weekly increase of 2.78%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) dropped from 9063 to 8991, a weekly decrease of 0.79%, and the spot price dropped from 10034 to 9976, a weekly decrease of 0.58%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2605) rose from 8016 to 8094, a weekly increase of 0.97%, and the spot price rose from 8402 to 8442, a weekly increase of 0.48% [4]. 3.2 Basis and Spread of Three Major Oils - As of January 21, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 388 yuan/ton (decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared with the previous week), 989 yuan/ton (increased by 11 yuan/ton compared with the previous week), and - 108 yuan/ton (decreased by 110 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) respectively. As of January 23, 2026, the YP spread was - 816 yuan/ton (decreased by 158 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Inventory of Three Major Oils - As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons (unchanged from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 74.61 million tons (increased by 1.01 million tons compared with the previous week), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 96.33 million tons (decreased by 6.18 million tons compared with the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 171.14 million tons (decreased by 5.17 million tons compared with the previous week) [11]. 3.4 Supply - side of Palm Oil - As of January 20, 2026, the total port inventory of palm oil was 77.60 million tons (increased by 0.6 million tons compared with the previous week). SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [15]. 3.5 Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of January 16, 2026, the soybean inventory in national ports was 772.10 million tons (decreased by 30.7 million tons compared with the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 687.33 million tons (decreased by 25.79 million tons compared with the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 55% (increased by 5% compared with the previous week). As of January 23, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 492.95 yuan/ton (decreased by 11.55 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) [31]. 3.6 Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of January 16, 2026, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 23, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2461.60 yuan/ton (decreased by 243.6 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) [46]. 3.7 Demand - side - On January 22, 2026, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 400 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 11300 tons, and the POGO spread was 405.49 US dollars/ton (increased by 1.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 million tons [59]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis of Three Major Oils - Policy: There are positive developments in China - Canada trade relations; Indonesia continues to rectify illegal plantations, revoking the operating licenses of 28 companies; the US biodiesel policy is about to be clarified. - Foreign factors: Brazil is about to start a record - scale soybean harvest. The US NOPA's latest data shows that the soybean crushing volume in December was 225 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. For palm oil, different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 show different trends, and the production decreased by 16% month - on - month. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 5% compared with the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. - Inventory: As of January 16, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory remained at 0.2 million tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 74.61 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills decreased to 96.33 million tons. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil increased by 2.72%, that of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.79%, and that of soybean oil increased by 0.97% [63]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: For palm oil, pay attention to the high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil, and the inventory inflection point is expected to arrive. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to China's procurement progress of Canadian rapeseed and the crushing situation of Australian rapeseed. For domestic soybean oil, pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking as the inventory is being reduced from a high level. - Medium - to - long - term: Palm oil futures prices are expected to rise as the origin is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil have improved. Rapeseed oil supply will increase after March, and the medium - to - long - term futures price may be weak. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and considering the cost - performance of soybean oil consumption, the cost center is expected to rise [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed a divergent trend. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with a possible inventory inflection point, and may rise in the medium - to - long - term due to seasonal production cuts and improved fundamentals. - Soybean oil has a loose global supply, but domestic inventory is being depleted due to pre - Spring Festival stocking. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation. - Rapeseed oil is restricted by a relatively loose supply - demand pattern in Canada. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the impact of Canada's Prime Minister's visit to China. In the medium - to - long - term, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship will determine the price trend [28]. 3. Summary of Different Sections 3.1 Spot Price Trends - From January 9 to January 16, 2026, the futures closing price of palm oil's main contract decreased by 0.09% from 8682 to 8674, and the spot price decreased by 0.23% from 8600 to 8580. - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil's main contract increased by 0.23% from 9042 to 9063, while the spot price decreased by 1.37% from 9942 to 9806. - The futures closing price of soybean oil's main contract increased by 0.28% from 7994 to 8016, and the spot price increased by 0.67% from 8308 to 8364 [4]. 3.2 Basis Changes - As of January 15, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 426 yuan/ton (an increase of 62 yuan/ton from the previous week), 978 yuan/ton (an increase of 72 yuan/ton), and 2 yuan/ton (an increase of 14 yuan/ton) respectively. - As of January 16, 2026, the YP spread was - 658 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Inventory Trends - As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons (a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 73.60 million tons (an increase of 0.22 million tons), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 102.51 million tons (a decrease of 5.59 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 176.31 million tons (a decrease of 5.47 million tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the gross profit of 24 - degree palm oil against the market was - 191 yuan/ton (a decrease of 67 yuan/ton from the previous week). As of December 2025, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 3.05 million tons, and the production in the first half of January 2026 decreased by 18.24% [13]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of soybeans in national ports was 8.028 billion tons (a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybeans in major oil mills was 7.1312 billion tons (an increase of 2.87 million tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 53% (an increase of 3% from the previous week). As of January 16, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 481.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10.7 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the total inventory of rapeseeds in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 16, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2218.0 yuan/ton (a decrease of 61.0 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1300 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 2500 tons, and the POGO spread was 403.99 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 1.25 US dollars/ton from the previous week). - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [25]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The Trump administration plans to finalize the biofuel blending quota in early March and abandon the import penalty plan. The Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade negotiation is advancing, and the market is concerned about the progress of tariff relaxation. - **Foreign Factors**: The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report shows that the US's 2025/26 soybean production forecast is 4.262 billion bushels, and the export forecast is 1.575 billion bushels. As of December, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 3.05 million tons, and the production in the first half of January decreased by 18.24%, while exports increased by 17.5% - 18.6%. - **Import and Pressing**: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The inventory of rapeseeds in oil mills remained unchanged. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased, and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends, with palm oil and rapeseed oil prices falling and soybean oil prices rising [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, palm oil investors should focus on the MPOB report next Monday and be aware of volatility risks; rapeseed oil investors should pay attention to the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China on rapeseed products; domestic soybean oil inventory remains relatively high, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation. In the long - term, palm oil prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after bottom - seeking, rapeseed oil prices depend on China - Canada trade relations, and the cost center of soybean oil may rise [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, palm oil futures rose 1.14%, rapeseed oil futures fell 0.50%, and soybean oil futures rose 1.68%. Palm oil spot prices rose 0.42%, rapeseed oil spot prices fell 0.86%, and soybean oil spot prices rose 0.63% [4]. - As of January 8, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 364 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week), 906 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and - 12 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan/ton) respectively. As of January 9, 2026, the YP spread was - 688 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.2 Inventory - As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.3 million tons (down 0.1 million tons from the previous week), the palm oil commercial inventory was 73.38 million tons (down 0.03 million tons), the national soybean oil inventory was 108.10 million tons (down 0.8 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 181.78 million tons (down 0.93 million tons) [10]. 3.3 Supply - side - **Palm oil**: As of January 6, 2026, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8678 yuan/ton (down 57 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 124 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month [13]. - **Soybean oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 823.60 million tons (down 1.5 million tons from the previous week), the major oil - mill soybean inventory was 710.25 million tons (up 55.81 million tons), and the oil - mill operating rate was 50% (up 5%). As of January 9, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 470.70 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton) [16]. - **Rapeseed oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 9, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2157.0 yuan/ton (down 241.0 yuan/ton) [22]. 3.4 Demand - side - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 15,200 tons, and the POGO spread was 405.24 US dollars/ton (down 25.5 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [28]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China next week to discuss trade, energy, agriculture, and international security, which may affect rapeseed products [29]. - **International factors**: Brazilian soybean harvest is going smoothly, and the new crop is growing well, leading to a loose global soybean supply. The market is waiting for the USDA's January 12 global supply - demand data. From January 1 - 5, 2026, South Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month, and exports increased by 31%. The December palm oil inventory in Malaysia may reach a seven - year high [29]. - **Import and crushing**: The oil - mill operating rate increased by 1% from the previous week, and soybean inventory decreased. The oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [29]. - **Inventory**: As of January 2, 2026, coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 0.5 million tons, palm oil commercial inventory increased to 70 million tons, and national soybean oil inventory decreased to 112.35 million tons [29]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils rose. Palm oil rose 2.52%, rapeseed oil rose 4.88%, and soybean oil rose 0.96% [29]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendation - **Palm oil**: This week, the three major oils showed divergent trends. Palm oil fundamentals have improved, with the producing area entering the production - reduction cycle and exports increasing. The December palm oil inventory in Malaysia may reach a seven - year high, and attention should be paid to the expected difference in the MPOB report [30]. - **Soybean oil**: Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, resulting in a loose global soybean supply. The market is focusing on the USDA's January supply - demand report. In China, soybean oil inventory remains high, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking [30]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed is relatively loose, restraining its market price. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing. Australian rapeseed will increase future supply pressure. The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China may improve China - Canada relations, and its impact on rapeseed products should be noted [30].

期货热点追踪 多空交织下橡胶走向何方？天气、政策与汇率三重变量如何定调？ 相关链接 ...