Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, palm oil exports are favorable and it will operate in a volatile and upward - biased manner; rapeseed production has increased year - on - year, increasing the supply pressure in the far - month, so it will operate in a high - level volatility; the US biodiesel policy will become clearer, and domestic soybean oil inventory is still high, so soybean oil will operate in a volatile manner [75] - In the medium - to - long - term, palm oil prices are expected to be on the strong side due to plantation confiscation in Indonesia and rising drought risks; rapeseed oil prices may maintain high - level volatility in the medium - to - long - term as the long - term supply will increase; considering the cost - effectiveness of soybean oil consumption, the cost center is expected to rise [75] Summary by Directory Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From March 6 to March 13, 2026, the closing price of the palm oil futures main contract (P2605) rose from 9218 to 9768, a week - on - week increase of 550, or 5.97%. The spot price rose from 9160 to 9596, a week - on - week increase of 436, or 4.76% [4] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil futures main contract (OI2605) rose from 9666 to 9821, a week - on - week increase of 155, or 1.60%. The spot price rose from 10130 to 10360, a week - on - week increase of 230, or 2.27% [4] - The closing price of the soybean oil futures main contract (Y2605) rose from 8412 to 8690, a week - on - week increase of 278, or 3.30%. The spot price rose from 8620 to 8884, a week - on - week increase of 264, or 3.06% [4] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of March 12, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were 212 yuan/ton (a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week), 541 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), and - 54 yuan/ton (an increase of 56 yuan/ton from the pre - holiday), respectively [10] - As of March 13, 2026, the YP spread was - 1078 yuan/ton (a decrease of 272 yuan/ton from the pre - holiday) [10] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of March 6, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 0.6 million tons (a decrease of 0.40 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 81.21 million tons (an increase of 2.54 million tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 109.40 million tons (a decrease of 10.28 million tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 191.21 million tons (an increase of 1.86 million tons from the previous week) [13] Palm Oil Supply Side - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of February decreased for the second consecutive month, hitting a four - month low [20] - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first ten days of March 2026 increased by 1.55% month - on - month [20] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of March 6, 2026, the soybean inventory in national ports was 579.40 million tons (a decrease of 50.6 million tons from the previous week), and the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 572.67 million tons (a decrease of 24.02 million tons from the previous week) [37] - As of March 13, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 626.90 yuan/ton (a decrease of 120.7 yuan/ton from the pre - holiday) [37] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of March 6, 2026, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 20 million tons (unchanged from the previous week) [52] - As of March 13, 2026, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was 212.60 yuan/ton (an increase of 100.6 yuan/ton from the pre - holiday) [52] Demand Side - On March 12, 2026, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 9500 tons, and the POGO spread was 87.99 US dollars/ton (an increase of 4.25 US dollars/ton from the pre - holiday) [71] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 7.93 million tons [71] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The Trump administration plans to re - allocate at least 50% of the exempted biofuel blending obligations to large refineries, and the US biodiesel policy will gradually become clear [73] - Abroad: For US soybeans, South American Brazil has a strong expectation of a bumper soybean harvest, but the overall harvesting progress is slower than in previous years. The USDA lowered the expected soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/2026 season from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 48.11 million tons, while the expected production in Brazil remains at 180 million tons. For palm oil, Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of February decreased for the second consecutive month, hitting a four - month low, but due to the unexpected decline in exports, the inventory decline was not as expected. High - frequency data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first ten days of March increased by 37% - 46% month - on - month, with good export performance [73] - Import and crushing: The soybean inventory in national ports decreased to 579.40 million tons. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 20 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [73] - Inventory: As of March 6, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 0.6 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 81.21 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased to 109.40 million tons [73] - Spot: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils increased in resonance. The spot price of palm oil increased by 4.76% from the previous week, the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 2.27%, and the spot price of soybean oil increased by 3.06% [73] Strategy Recommendation - Palm oil: This week, the three major oils increased in resonance compared with last week. As of the close, palm oil increased by 5.97%, soybean oil by 3.30%, and rapeseed oil by 1.60%. The MPOB monthly report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of February decreased for the second consecutive month, hitting a four - month low, but due to the unexpected decline in exports, the inventory decline was not as expected. High - frequency data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first ten days of March increased by 37% - 46% month - on - month, with good export performance. The rise in international energy prices makes biodiesel economically attractive, and Indonesia is accelerating the B50 biodiesel test, which is beneficial to palm oil prices [74] - Soybean oil: Recently, there are reports that customs has tightened the quarantine standards for Brazilian soybeans. The market is worried that soybean clearance will be restricted, affecting the supply. Coupled with the rumor that the national reserve directional auction policy for soybeans in April will be adjusted, it boosts the soybean oil price. From mid - to - late March in China, oil mills in North China and Rizhao, Shandong have shutdown and maintenance plans to varying degrees [74] - Rapeseed oil: The USDA's March oilseed report shows that the global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season reached a record 95.502 million tons, an increase of 9.504 million tons year - on - year. The expectation of a loose supply suppresses the rapeseed oil market sentiment. Chinese enterprises have purchased about 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed, and the global rapeseed supply pattern has undergone a structural adjustment, alleviating the medium - to - long - term supply pressure [74]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils showed a resonant upward trend compared to last week. As of the close, palm oil rose 4.99%, soybean oil rose 2.26%, and rapeseed oil rose 5.24%. In the short - term, palm oil may see a decline in inventory in February and its trend is relatively strong; rapeseed oil has an expected increase in far - month supply but its planting intention is lower than expected, so it fluctuates strongly; soybean oil fluctuates as the US biodiesel policy is about to be clarified and domestic inventory is high. In the long - term, palm oil futures prices are expected to be strong due to plantation confiscation and increased drought risk in Indonesia; rapeseed oil futures prices may weaken in the long - term as the supply will increase; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil has recovered, and considering the cost and consumption performance of soybean oil, its cost center may rise [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Prices of Three Major Oils in China - From February 27 to March 6, 2026, the closing price of the palm oil futures main contract (P2605) increased from 8,780 to 9,218, a weekly increase of 438 or 4.99%. The spot price rose from 8,666 to 8,960, a weekly increase of 294 or 3.39% [4]. - The closing price of the rapeseed oil futures main contract (OI2605) increased from 9,185 to 9,666, a weekly increase of 481 or 5.24%. The spot price rose from 9,780 to 9,884, a weekly increase of 104 or 1.06% [4]. - The closing price of the soybean oil futures main contract (Y2605) increased from 8,226 to 8,412, a weekly increase of 186 or 2.26%. The spot price rose from 8,520 to 8,600, a weekly increase of 80 or 0.94% [4]. 2. Basis and Spread of Three Major Oils - As of March 5, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were 230 yuan/ton (a decrease of 64 yuan/ton from the previous week), 541 yuan/ton (a decrease of 158 yuan/ton from the previous week), and - 110 yuan/ton (an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [8]. - As of March 6, 2026, the YP spread was - 806 yuan/ton (a decrease of 252 yuan/ton from the previous week) [8]. 3. Inventory Trends of Three Major Oils - As of February 27, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 1.0 million tons (an increase of 0.50 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 78.67 million tons (an increase of 8.03 million tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 119.68 million tons (a decrease of 4.12 million tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 189.35 million tons (an increase of 4.41 million tons from the previous week) [13]. 4. Supply Side of Palm Oil - As of March 3, 2026, the total port inventory of palm oil was 81.30 million tons (an increase of 6.9 million tons from the previous week) [19]. - SPPOMA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia in February 2026 decreased by 16% month - on - month [19]. 5. Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of February 27, 2026, the soybean inventory in national ports was 630.00 million tons (an increase of 70.60 million tons from the previous week), and the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 596.69 million tons (an increase of 77.15 million tons from the previous week) [34]. - As of March 5, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 506.20 yuan/ton (a decrease of 49.15 yuan/ton from the previous week) [34]. 6. Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of February 27, 2026, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons (an increase of 12.5 million tons from the previous week) [50]. - As of March 6, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was 112 yuan/ton (an increase of 2,738.80 yuan/ton from the previous week) [50]. 7. Demand Side - On March 5, 2026, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 500 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 18,800 tons, and the POGO spread was 83.74 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 274.75 US dollars/ton from the previous week) [67]. - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 million tons [68]. 8. Fundamental Analysis of Three Major Oils - Policy: The Trump administration plans to re - allocate at least 50% of the exempted biofuel blending obligations to large refineries, and the US biodiesel policy will gradually become clear [72]. - Abroad: There are strong expectations of a bumper soybean harvest in South American Brazil, but the overall harvesting progress is slower than in previous years. Drought in Brazil and Argentina may lead some institutions to lower Brazil's soybean production. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in February may decline for the second consecutive month, and its February production is expected to decrease by 17.8% [72]. - Import and crushing: The soybean inventory in national ports has increased to 630 million tons, and the rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 20 million tons, an increase of 12.5 million tons from the previous week [72]. - Inventory: As of February 27, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas increased to 1.0 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 78.67 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased to 119.68 million tons [72]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed a resonant upward trend. The spot price of palm oil increased by 3.39% from the previous week, rapeseed oil by 1.06%, and soybean oil by 0.94% [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the trends of the three major oils were divergent. Palm oil showed the strongest performance among the three, with its futures price rising due to multiple positive factors such as reduced production and increased exports of Malaysian palm oil, and the clarification of the US biodiesel policy. The fundamentals of soybean oil are mixed, with supply - side pressure rising slightly and attention on the Spring Festival stocking. Rapeseed oil may see an increase in supply after March, and the medium - to - long - term futures price may be weak. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [64]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Spot and Futures Prices of Three Major Oils - From January 16 to 23, 2026, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2605) rose from 8674 to 8910, a weekly increase of 2.72%, and the spot price rose from 8630 to 8870, a weekly increase of 2.78%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) dropped from 9063 to 8991, a weekly decrease of 0.79%, and the spot price dropped from 10034 to 9976, a weekly decrease of 0.58%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2605) rose from 8016 to 8094, a weekly increase of 0.97%, and the spot price rose from 8402 to 8442, a weekly increase of 0.48% [4]. 3.2 Basis and Spread of Three Major Oils - As of January 21, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 388 yuan/ton (decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared with the previous week), 989 yuan/ton (increased by 11 yuan/ton compared with the previous week), and - 108 yuan/ton (decreased by 110 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) respectively. As of January 23, 2026, the YP spread was - 816 yuan/ton (decreased by 158 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Inventory of Three Major Oils - As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons (unchanged from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 74.61 million tons (increased by 1.01 million tons compared with the previous week), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 96.33 million tons (decreased by 6.18 million tons compared with the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 171.14 million tons (decreased by 5.17 million tons compared with the previous week) [11]. 3.4 Supply - side of Palm Oil - As of January 20, 2026, the total port inventory of palm oil was 77.60 million tons (increased by 0.6 million tons compared with the previous week). SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [15]. 3.5 Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of January 16, 2026, the soybean inventory in national ports was 772.10 million tons (decreased by 30.7 million tons compared with the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 687.33 million tons (decreased by 25.79 million tons compared with the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 55% (increased by 5% compared with the previous week). As of January 23, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 492.95 yuan/ton (decreased by 11.55 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) [31]. 3.6 Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of January 16, 2026, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 23, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2461.60 yuan/ton (decreased by 243.6 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) [46]. 3.7 Demand - side - On January 22, 2026, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 400 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 11300 tons, and the POGO spread was 405.49 US dollars/ton (increased by 1.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 million tons [59]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis of Three Major Oils - Policy: There are positive developments in China - Canada trade relations; Indonesia continues to rectify illegal plantations, revoking the operating licenses of 28 companies; the US biodiesel policy is about to be clarified. - Foreign factors: Brazil is about to start a record - scale soybean harvest. The US NOPA's latest data shows that the soybean crushing volume in December was 225 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. For palm oil, different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 show different trends, and the production decreased by 16% month - on - month. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 5% compared with the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. - Inventory: As of January 16, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory remained at 0.2 million tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 74.61 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills decreased to 96.33 million tons. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil increased by 2.72%, that of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.79%, and that of soybean oil increased by 0.97% [63]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: For palm oil, pay attention to the high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil, and the inventory inflection point is expected to arrive. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to China's procurement progress of Canadian rapeseed and the crushing situation of Australian rapeseed. For domestic soybean oil, pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking as the inventory is being reduced from a high level. - Medium - to - long - term: Palm oil futures prices are expected to rise as the origin is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil have improved. Rapeseed oil supply will increase after March, and the medium - to - long - term futures price may be weak. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and considering the cost - performance of soybean oil consumption, the cost center is expected to rise [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed a divergent trend. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with a possible inventory inflection point, and may rise in the medium - to - long - term due to seasonal production cuts and improved fundamentals. - Soybean oil has a loose global supply, but domestic inventory is being depleted due to pre - Spring Festival stocking. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation. - Rapeseed oil is restricted by a relatively loose supply - demand pattern in Canada. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the impact of Canada's Prime Minister's visit to China. In the medium - to - long - term, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship will determine the price trend [28]. 3. Summary of Different Sections 3.1 Spot Price Trends - From January 9 to January 16, 2026, the futures closing price of palm oil's main contract decreased by 0.09% from 8682 to 8674, and the spot price decreased by 0.23% from 8600 to 8580. - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil's main contract increased by 0.23% from 9042 to 9063, while the spot price decreased by 1.37% from 9942 to 9806. - The futures closing price of soybean oil's main contract increased by 0.28% from 7994 to 8016, and the spot price increased by 0.67% from 8308 to 8364 [4]. 3.2 Basis Changes - As of January 15, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 426 yuan/ton (an increase of 62 yuan/ton from the previous week), 978 yuan/ton (an increase of 72 yuan/ton), and 2 yuan/ton (an increase of 14 yuan/ton) respectively. - As of January 16, 2026, the YP spread was - 658 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Inventory Trends - As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons (a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 73.60 million tons (an increase of 0.22 million tons), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 102.51 million tons (a decrease of 5.59 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 176.31 million tons (a decrease of 5.47 million tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the gross profit of 24 - degree palm oil against the market was - 191 yuan/ton (a decrease of 67 yuan/ton from the previous week). As of December 2025, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 3.05 million tons, and the production in the first half of January 2026 decreased by 18.24% [13]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of soybeans in national ports was 8.028 billion tons (a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybeans in major oil mills was 7.1312 billion tons (an increase of 2.87 million tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 53% (an increase of 3% from the previous week). As of January 16, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 481.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10.7 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the total inventory of rapeseeds in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 16, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2218.0 yuan/ton (a decrease of 61.0 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1300 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 2500 tons, and the POGO spread was 403.99 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 1.25 US dollars/ton from the previous week). - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [25]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The Trump administration plans to finalize the biofuel blending quota in early March and abandon the import penalty plan. The Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade negotiation is advancing, and the market is concerned about the progress of tariff relaxation. - **Foreign Factors**: The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report shows that the US's 2025/26 soybean production forecast is 4.262 billion bushels, and the export forecast is 1.575 billion bushels. As of December, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 3.05 million tons, and the production in the first half of January decreased by 18.24%, while exports increased by 17.5% - 18.6%. - **Import and Pressing**: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The inventory of rapeseeds in oil mills remained unchanged. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased, and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends, with palm oil and rapeseed oil prices falling and soybean oil prices rising [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, palm oil investors should focus on the MPOB report next Monday and be aware of volatility risks; rapeseed oil investors should pay attention to the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China on rapeseed products; domestic soybean oil inventory remains relatively high, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation. In the long - term, palm oil prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after bottom - seeking, rapeseed oil prices depend on China - Canada trade relations, and the cost center of soybean oil may rise [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, palm oil futures rose 1.14%, rapeseed oil futures fell 0.50%, and soybean oil futures rose 1.68%. Palm oil spot prices rose 0.42%, rapeseed oil spot prices fell 0.86%, and soybean oil spot prices rose 0.63% [4]. - As of January 8, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 364 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week), 906 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and - 12 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan/ton) respectively. As of January 9, 2026, the YP spread was - 688 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.2 Inventory - As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.3 million tons (down 0.1 million tons from the previous week), the palm oil commercial inventory was 73.38 million tons (down 0.03 million tons), the national soybean oil inventory was 108.10 million tons (down 0.8 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 181.78 million tons (down 0.93 million tons) [10]. 3.3 Supply - side - **Palm oil**: As of January 6, 2026, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8678 yuan/ton (down 57 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 124 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month [13]. - **Soybean oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 823.60 million tons (down 1.5 million tons from the previous week), the major oil - mill soybean inventory was 710.25 million tons (up 55.81 million tons), and the oil - mill operating rate was 50% (up 5%). As of January 9, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 470.70 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton) [16]. - **Rapeseed oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 9, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2157.0 yuan/ton (down 241.0 yuan/ton) [22]. 3.4 Demand - side - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 15,200 tons, and the POGO spread was 405.24 US dollars/ton (down 25.5 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [28]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China next week to discuss trade, energy, agriculture, and international security, which may affect rapeseed products [29]. - **International factors**: Brazilian soybean harvest is going smoothly, and the new crop is growing well, leading to a loose global soybean supply. The market is waiting for the USDA's January 12 global supply - demand data. From January 1 - 5, 2026, South Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month, and exports increased by 31%. The December palm oil inventory in Malaysia may reach a seven - year high [29]. - **Import and crushing**: The oil - mill operating rate increased by 1% from the previous week, and soybean inventory decreased. The oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [29]. - **Inventory**: As of January 2, 2026, coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 0.5 million tons, palm oil commercial inventory increased to 70 million tons, and national soybean oil inventory decreased to 112.35 million tons [29]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils rose. Palm oil rose 2.52%, rapeseed oil rose 4.88%, and soybean oil rose 0.96% [29]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendation - **Palm oil**: This week, the three major oils showed divergent trends. Palm oil fundamentals have improved, with the producing area entering the production - reduction cycle and exports increasing. The December palm oil inventory in Malaysia may reach a seven - year high, and attention should be paid to the expected difference in the MPOB report [30]. - **Soybean oil**: Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, resulting in a loose global soybean supply. The market is focusing on the USDA's January supply - demand report. In China, soybean oil inventory remains high, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking [30]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed is relatively loose, restraining its market price. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing. Australian rapeseed will increase future supply pressure. The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China may improve China - Canada relations, and its impact on rapeseed products should be noted [30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the complex interplay of weather, policy, and exchange rates in determining the future direction of rubber prices amid a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish market sentiments [1] Group 2 - Weather conditions are highlighted as a significant variable affecting rubber supply and prices, with potential impacts from climate changes and seasonal patterns [1] - Policy changes, including government regulations and trade agreements, are noted as influential factors that could either support or hinder rubber market dynamics [1] - Exchange rate fluctuations are emphasized as a critical element that can affect the competitiveness of rubber exports and imports, thereby impacting overall market stability [1]