中盛期货 三大油脂周度报告 中盛期货 20260123 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 三大油脂基差变化情况 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 国内三大油脂现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2026.1.16 | 2026.1.23 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅% | 现货指标 | 2026.1.16 | 2026.1.23 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅% | | 棕榈油 | P2605 | 8674 | 8910 | 236 | 2.72 | 中国：现货价：棕榈油： 生意社 | 8630 | 8870 | 240 | 2.78 | | 菜油 | OI2605 | 9063 | 8991 | -72 | -0.79 | 中国：现货价：菜油： 生意社 | 10034 | 9976 | -58 | -0.58 | | 豆油 | Y2605 | 8016 | 8094 | 78 | 0.97 | 中国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed a divergent trend. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with a possible inventory inflection point, and may rise in the medium - to - long - term due to seasonal production cuts and improved fundamentals. - Soybean oil has a loose global supply, but domestic inventory is being depleted due to pre - Spring Festival stocking. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation. - Rapeseed oil is restricted by a relatively loose supply - demand pattern in Canada. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the impact of Canada's Prime Minister's visit to China. In the medium - to - long - term, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship will determine the price trend [28]. 3. Summary of Different Sections 3.1 Spot Price Trends - From January 9 to January 16, 2026, the futures closing price of palm oil's main contract decreased by 0.09% from 8682 to 8674, and the spot price decreased by 0.23% from 8600 to 8580. - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil's main contract increased by 0.23% from 9042 to 9063, while the spot price decreased by 1.37% from 9942 to 9806. - The futures closing price of soybean oil's main contract increased by 0.28% from 7994 to 8016, and the spot price increased by 0.67% from 8308 to 8364 [4]. 3.2 Basis Changes - As of January 15, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 426 yuan/ton (an increase of 62 yuan/ton from the previous week), 978 yuan/ton (an increase of 72 yuan/ton), and 2 yuan/ton (an increase of 14 yuan/ton) respectively. - As of January 16, 2026, the YP spread was - 658 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Inventory Trends - As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons (a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 73.60 million tons (an increase of 0.22 million tons), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 102.51 million tons (a decrease of 5.59 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 176.31 million tons (a decrease of 5.47 million tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the gross profit of 24 - degree palm oil against the market was - 191 yuan/ton (a decrease of 67 yuan/ton from the previous week). As of December 2025, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 3.05 million tons, and the production in the first half of January 2026 decreased by 18.24% [13]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of soybeans in national ports was 8.028 billion tons (a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybeans in major oil mills was 7.1312 billion tons (an increase of 2.87 million tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 53% (an increase of 3% from the previous week). As of January 16, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 481.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10.7 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the total inventory of rapeseeds in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 16, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2218.0 yuan/ton (a decrease of 61.0 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1300 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 2500 tons, and the POGO spread was 403.99 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 1.25 US dollars/ton from the previous week). - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [25]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The Trump administration plans to finalize the biofuel blending quota in early March and abandon the import penalty plan. The Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade negotiation is advancing, and the market is concerned about the progress of tariff relaxation. - **Foreign Factors**: The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report shows that the US's 2025/26 soybean production forecast is 4.262 billion bushels, and the export forecast is 1.575 billion bushels. As of December, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 3.05 million tons, and the production in the first half of January decreased by 18.24%, while exports increased by 17.5% - 18.6%. - **Import and Pressing**: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The inventory of rapeseeds in oil mills remained unchanged. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased, and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends, with palm oil and rapeseed oil prices falling and soybean oil prices rising [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, palm oil investors should focus on the MPOB report next Monday and be aware of volatility risks; rapeseed oil investors should pay attention to the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China on rapeseed products; domestic soybean oil inventory remains relatively high, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation. In the long - term, palm oil prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after bottom - seeking, rapeseed oil prices depend on China - Canada trade relations, and the cost center of soybean oil may rise [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, palm oil futures rose 1.14%, rapeseed oil futures fell 0.50%, and soybean oil futures rose 1.68%. Palm oil spot prices rose 0.42%, rapeseed oil spot prices fell 0.86%, and soybean oil spot prices rose 0.63% [4]. - As of January 8, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 364 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week), 906 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and - 12 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan/ton) respectively. As of January 9, 2026, the YP spread was - 688 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.2 Inventory - As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.3 million tons (down 0.1 million tons from the previous week), the palm oil commercial inventory was 73.38 million tons (down 0.03 million tons), the national soybean oil inventory was 108.10 million tons (down 0.8 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 181.78 million tons (down 0.93 million tons) [10]. 3.3 Supply - side - **Palm oil**: As of January 6, 2026, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8678 yuan/ton (down 57 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 124 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month [13]. - **Soybean oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 823.60 million tons (down 1.5 million tons from the previous week), the major oil - mill soybean inventory was 710.25 million tons (up 55.81 million tons), and the oil - mill operating rate was 50% (up 5%). As of January 9, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 470.70 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton) [16]. - **Rapeseed oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 9, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2157.0 yuan/ton (down 241.0 yuan/ton) [22]. 3.4 Demand - side - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 15,200 tons, and the POGO spread was 405.24 US dollars/ton (down 25.5 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [28]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China next week to discuss trade, energy, agriculture, and international security, which may affect rapeseed products [29]. - **International factors**: Brazilian soybean harvest is going smoothly, and the new crop is growing well, leading to a loose global soybean supply. The market is waiting for the USDA's January 12 global supply - demand data. From January 1 - 5, 2026, South Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month, and exports increased by 31%. The December palm oil inventory in Malaysia may reach a seven - year high [29]. - **Import and crushing**: The oil - mill operating rate increased by 1% from the previous week, and soybean inventory decreased. The oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [29]. - **Inventory**: As of January 2, 2026, coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 0.5 million tons, palm oil commercial inventory increased to 70 million tons, and national soybean oil inventory decreased to 112.35 million tons [29]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils rose. Palm oil rose 2.52%, rapeseed oil rose 4.88%, and soybean oil rose 0.96% [29]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendation - **Palm oil**: This week, the three major oils showed divergent trends. Palm oil fundamentals have improved, with the producing area entering the production - reduction cycle and exports increasing. The December palm oil inventory in Malaysia may reach a seven - year high, and attention should be paid to the expected difference in the MPOB report [30]. - **Soybean oil**: Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, resulting in a loose global soybean supply. The market is focusing on the USDA's January supply - demand report. In China, soybean oil inventory remains high, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking [30]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed is relatively loose, restraining its market price. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing. Australian rapeseed will increase future supply pressure. The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China may improve China - Canada relations, and its impact on rapeseed products should be noted [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, palm oil is expected to be strong due to concerns about production cuts caused by floods in Southeast Asia; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as Australian rapeseeds are arriving but need time for customs clearance and pressing; soybean oil will have narrow - range fluctuations due to ample supply and lack of driving forces [28]. - In the medium - to - long - term, palm oil prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after bottom - hunting, considering the upcoming seasonal production cut in the producing areas and the long - term support of Indonesia's biodiesel policy; the trend of rapeseed oil prices depends on China - Canada trade relations; the soybean - palm oil price spread has been repaired, and the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From November 21 to 28, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) rose from 8550 to 8626, a weekly increase of 0.89%; the spot price fell from 8532 to 8518, a weekly decrease of 0.16% [4]. - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) dropped from 9816 to 9757, a weekly decrease of 0.60%; the spot price decreased from 10167 to 10145, a weekly decrease of 0.21% [4]. - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) increased from 8190 to 8244, a weekly increase of 0.66%; the spot price rose from 8392 to 8412, a weekly increase of 0.24% [4]. 3.2 Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of November 27, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 188 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week), 373 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), and - 10 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [7]. - As of November 28, 2025, the YP spread was - 382 yuan/ton (a decrease of 22 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of November 21, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 2.45 million tons (an increase of 0.37 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 66.71 million tons (an increase of 1.39 million tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 117.99 million tons (an increase of 3.14 million tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 187.15 million tons (an increase of 4.9 million tons from the previous week) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side of Palm Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8884 yuan/ton (an increase of 71 yuan/ton from the previous week) [13]. - As of November 28, 2025, the gross profit of 24 - degree palm oil against the market was - 224 yuan/ton (a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from the previous week) [13]. - SPPOMA data showed that the year - on - year increase in Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 25, 2025, narrowed to 5.49% [13]. 3.5 Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of November 21, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 942.50 million tons (a decrease of 50.1 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 714.99 million tons (a decrease of 32.72 million tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 59% (a decrease of 3% from the previous week) [16]. - As of November 28, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 533.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 40.15 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. 3.6 Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of November 21, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous week) [19]. - As of November 28, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2414.40 yuan/ton (an increase of 39.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. 3.7 Demand - side - On November 27, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 3700 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 6300 tons, and the POGO spread was 375.99 US dollars/ton (an increase of 30.75 US dollars/ton from the previous week) [25]. - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 million tons [25]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis of Three Major Oils - Policy: The Trump administration is considering extending the restrictions on imported raw materials and imported biodiesel. The US restructuring of the Energy Bureau and the abolition of renewable energy - related departments have limited the boost to the US biofuel policy. The market is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade relations [26]. - Foreign factors: For US soybeans, the November USDA supply - demand report lowered the 2025/26 soybean yield per acre by 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre, and the soybean production was also lowered to 4.253 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. Exports were unexpectedly lowered by 0.5 billion bushels, about 136 million tons. Since Tuesday, China has purchased at least 10 ships of US soybeans. Since late October, China has purchased about 3.5 million tons of US soybeans, about 30% of the 12 - million - ton purchase target [26]. For palm oil, SPPOMA data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.49% compared with the same period last month. AmSpecAgri data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from November 1 - 25, 2025, decreased by 16.4% compared with the previous month. The increase in production and decline in exports increased the expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysia. Recent floods in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about the impact on Malaysian palm oil production [26]. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous week [26]. - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas increased to 2.45 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 66.71 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 117.99 million tons [26]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.16%, the spot price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.21%, and the spot price of soybean oil increased by 0.24% [26].