| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 淡季供给过剩主导市场走势，油价上方承压。地缘：俄乌地缘仍有扰动， | | 原油 | | 乌克兰袭击 CPC 管道，短期提振油价；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费 | | | 谨慎看空 | 淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国 | | ★ | | 原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国 | | | | 页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本支撑下降，需求下降，液化气承压回落。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下，沙特上调 12 月份 CP 合同价，但盘面已计价； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左 | | | | 右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。策 | | | | 略：空单继续持有。 | | L | | 社会库存反季节性累库，现货跟涨不足，盘面维持升水结构。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2][4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Glass, soda ash: Bearish consolidation [7] Core Views - Crude oil: Supply surplus in the off - season is the core driver, and oil prices are under downward pressure. OPEC+ plans to expand production in December and pause in early next year [2][10]. - LPG: Cost - side is bearish, and the price of LPG is weakening. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved, the cost - side impact is significant [2]. - L: Cost support is weakening, and the bearish trend continues. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand lacks replenishment momentum [2]. - PP: The inventory pressure in the industrial chain is high, and the bearish trend continues. Oil - based cost support is insufficient [2]. - PVC: Low valuation vs. weak reality, the bearish trend continues. Pay attention to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand contradiction [2]. - PX: Supply - demand is short - term improved, but oil prices are under pressure. Look for opportunities to short at high prices [2]. - PTA: Supply - demand is slightly improved, but oil prices are under pressure. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November [4]. - MEG: Low valuation vs. oil price pressure, the trend is weakly oscillating. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November [4]. - Methanol: The fundamentals are still weak. Pay attention to the inflection point of inventory destocking. High inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices [4]. - Urea: Low valuation vs. weak fundamentals. Consider going long on a small scale in the medium - to - long - term. Supply pressure increases, and winter demand and export benefits are limited [4]. - Natural gas: With the decline in temperature, the demand peak season is coming, and gas prices are likely to rise. The demand side has support, and the supply side is sufficient [7]. - Asphalt: Cost is weakening, and supply - demand is both decreasing. Asphalt is under downward pressure. The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient [7]. - Glass: Capital game is intense, and it is recommended to participate with caution. The fundamental pattern is loose, and the inventory is high [7]. - Soda ash: Inventory is slightly destocked, and the bearish trend rebounds. Supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is mostly rigid [7]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 1.59%, Brent dropped 1.43%, and SC dropped 0.67% [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States may reduce India's oil purchases. The core driver is supply surplus in the off - season, and global crude oil inventory is accelerating accumulation [10]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ will expand production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 next year. Russia's oil exports to India have decreased. US crude oil inventory has increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing short positions, and consider adding short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 460] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On November 5, the PG main contract closed at 4,247 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - side crude oil. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand side has some resilience. The inventory in ports has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory is slowly decreasing. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand lacks replenishment momentum. Oil prices may decline in the medium - term [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Up - and mid - stream inventories are at a high level. Demand is at the end of the peak season, and there is high inventory - removal pressure. Oil - based cost support is insufficient [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PP [6450 - 6600] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices have dropped, and cost support is weakening. The inventory is high, and the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is being compressed [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the range of V [4550 - 4700] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are reducing load, and overseas devices are increasing load. Demand is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX spreads are at certain levels. Oil prices are in a loose supply - demand pattern [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at low valuations. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the range of PX [6560 - 6660] [30]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA01 contract closed at 4,586 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees are low. Later device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, and supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at low valuations. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the range of TA [4540 - 4610] [33]. MEG - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices are increasing load. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3880 - 3940] [36]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices. Look for opportunities in MA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Pay attention to the range of MA [2095 - 2145] [41]. Urea - **Market Review**: The UR01 contract closed at 1,625 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing. Demand has slightly improved, but winter demand and export benefits are limited. Inventory is at a high level but is decreasing [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long on a small scale in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the range of UR [1615 - 1645] [45]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 4, the NG main contract closed at 4.573 US dollars per million British thermal units [47]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks are released, and the demand side has support due to the arrival of the heating season. The supply side is sufficient [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.262 - 4.458]. The demand for heating is increasing, but the upward pressure is rising [49]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 5, the BU main contract closed at 3,166 yuan/ton [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly affected by the cost - side crude oil. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is increasing [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on a small scale. The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3200] [53]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1,095 yuan/ton [56]. - **Basic Logic**: Daily melting volume is low but increasing. The fundamental pattern is loose, and inventory is high. Deep - processing orders are at a low level [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The pattern is loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the range of FG [1060 - 1110] [57]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton [60]. - **Basic Logic**: Factory inventory is slightly decreasing but remains high. Demand is mostly rigid, and supply is in a loose pattern [61]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [61].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical easing and supply-demand concerns on oil prices, highlighting a downward trend in oil prices and a revision of global oil demand forecasts by the IEA [4]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends and Demand Forecasts - Oil prices have continued to decline, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $61.34 and $57.25 per barrel respectively, down 1.2% and 1.7% from the previous week [4]. - The IEA has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 down by 40,000 barrels per day to a total increase of 700,000 barrels per day [4]. - On the supply side, the IEA expects global oil supply to increase by 3 million barrels per day in 2025, with OPEC+ contributing 1.4 million barrels per day and non-OPEC+ contributing 1.6 million barrels per day [4]. Group 2: Performance of Major Oil Companies - In the first half of 2025, the net profit of China's three major oil companies (PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC) showed resilience, with declines of 5.2%, 39.8%, and 12.8% respectively, indicating better performance compared to international peers [5]. - The five major international oil and gas companies reported net profit declines of 15.3% to 39.7%, with BP's base reset cost profit down by 31.8% [5]. - The three major oil companies are expected to enhance their production and reserves, with planned production increases of 1.6%, 1.5%, and 5.9% for PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC respectively in 2025 [5]. Group 3: Natural Gas Market Outlook - The article anticipates a cold winter in 2025, which may lead to a recovery in natural gas consumption, as demand has shown improvement since Q2 2025 [6]. - Natural gas sales for the three major oil companies increased by 3.2% in the first half of 2025, outpacing domestic demand growth [7]. - The market-oriented reforms in the natural gas sector are expected to enhance pricing flexibility and profitability for the three major oil companies, particularly during the heating season [7].