该行预测，新奥能源2025全年零售气量按年上升2.2%(下半年年增2.5%)，零售气分部毛利率在10%。新 增居民接驳量按年降8%至149万户，下跌势头进一步放缓。泛能业务方面，交银国际预期在4季度售能 随供暖需求正常化小幅回升，全年售能按年增4%。 考虑零售气量及泛能业务需求减弱，交银国际下调公司今明两年盈利0.1%、1.8%，2024之2027年盈利 年复合增长率约为4%。因营运表现偏弱，交银国际下调估值至10倍预测市盈率(前为11倍)，基准年移至 2026年，调整目标价从74.6港元至73.66港元，维持"买入"评级。 该行表示，新奥能源上半年核心盈利按年微降1%至32亿元人民币，合乎市场预期。目前该行预期四季 度冬天温度回归正常，供暖需求有望回升。 交银国际发布研报称，下调新奥能源(02688)估值至10倍预测市盈率(前为11倍)，基准年移至2026年，调 整目标价从74.6港元至73.66港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core profit of the company slightly decreased by 1% year-on-year to 3.2 billion RMB, in line with market expectations [1] - Retail gas sales increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with commercial and residential gas sales growing by 2.4% and 1.3% respectively, while the retail gas gross margin remained stable at 10.2% [1] - The total installed capacity and operational capacity of the company's diversified energy business reached 15 GW and 13.9 GW, representing year-on-year growth of 9.2% and 8.5% respectively [1] Group 2 - The company expects a slight recovery in heating demand in the second half of 2025, predicting a 2.2% year-on-year increase in retail gas volume for the entire year [2] - The gross margin for the retail gas segment is anticipated to be around 10%, with new residential connections expected to decline by 8% to 1.49 million households [2] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 down by 0.1% and 1.8% respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4% from 2024 to 2027 [2]

Summary of Industrial Gas Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the industrial gas industry, particularly focusing on the impact of supply-side reforms and current anti-involution policies on the market dynamics and pricing of industrial gases such as liquid oxygen, nitrogen, and argon [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Supply-Side Reforms Impact**: The previous round of supply-side reforms led to a 13% reduction in steel production capacity from 1.13 billion tons to 980 million tons, causing a contraction in industrial gas supply and a subsequent price increase due to demand stimulation [3][13]. - **Current Market Dynamics**: The current anti-involution policies may replicate similar effects as past reforms, potentially leading to a reduction in excess capacity in the industrial gas sector, contingent on demand support [1][24]. - **Price Trends**: Retail gas prices are at a ten-year low, with liquid oxygen prices dropping to around 350 RMB per ton, which does not cover cash costs. The market is undergoing an automatic exit process, with prices expected to stabilize and possibly recover moderately in the future [18][19][20]. - **Demand from Solar Industry**: The solar industry has significantly increased the demand for liquid argon, although the beta of this sector has weakened, leading to a sharp decline in argon prices [10][14]. - **Pipeline Gas Market**: The pipeline gas market is influenced by capital expenditures in the steel and chemical industries. There are signs of recovery in capital spending, which may lead to an increase in new contracts [9][21]. Additional Important Insights - **Capacity Utilization Trends**: From 2016 to 2018, the capacity utilization rates for liquid oxygen, nitrogen, and argon increased from 60% to 64%-65%. However, from 2021 to 2023, these rates declined due to the pandemic and economic conditions [8][17]. - **Market Structure Changes**: The structure of gas demand is changing, with a decrease in the proportion of liquid oxygen used in metallurgy and an increase in demand from emerging industries like lithium battery materials [15][16]. - **Future Price Projections**: Future price increases for retail gases are expected to be moderate, with potential growth of 5% to 10% annually, which could significantly improve profitability for companies like Hangyang [20][23]. - **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: The anti-involution policies are expected to benefit companies closely linked to steel and chemical industries, such as Hangyang, Shandong Gold, and others, by reducing excess supply and improving market conditions [24][25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the industrial gas industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between supply-side reforms, market dynamics, and future trends.

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | [Table_StockAndRank] 新奥股份 (600803.SH) | | --- | | 投资评级 买入 | 上次评级 买入 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 私有化进展顺利，核心利润稳健增长 [Table_S 事件：8ummar 月 27y]日晚，公司发布 2025 年上半年业绩公告，2025H1 公司实现 营业收入 659.91 亿元，同比减少 1.47%；实现归母净利润 24.08 亿元，同比 减少 4.82%；实现扣非后归母净利润 24.14 亿元，同比增长 21.13%；实现核 心利润 27.36 亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 66.015 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.47%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.408 billion yuan, down 4.82%. However, core profit increased by 1.4% to 2.736 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [7] - The platform trading gas market showed resilience, with sales volume reaching 2.689 billion cubic meters in H1 2025, only a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year, despite a 20.6% drop in LNG imports [7] - Retail gas volume grew by 1.9% year-on-year to 12.95 billion cubic meters, outperforming the industry average, with retail gas revenue of 33.627 billion yuan and a gross profit of 4.69 billion yuan, up 2.3% [7] - The Zhoushan receiving station's unloading volume increased by 11.7% year-on-year to 1.137 million tons in H1 2025, with plans for further capacity expansion [7] - The company's total liabilities decreased to 29.736 billion yuan, with a net debt ratio of 21.2%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved financial health [7] - The privatization of the subsidiary, Xin'ao Energy, is progressing, with plans for annual cash dividends of no less than 50% of the core profit, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns [7] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 5.155 billion, 6.419 billion, and 7.104 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 136.829 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.7% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 5.155 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [6] - The earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 1.66 yuan, with a gross margin of 14.2% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a downward revision of Kunlun Energy's (00135) profit forecasts for the next two years by 8% and 10% due to a decline in retail gas sales growth predictions [1] Financial Performance - Kunlun Energy's profit for the first half of the year decreased by 4.4% to 3.16 billion RMB, achieving only 45% of the original annual forecast [1] - The company's core profit is expected to remain stable at approximately 6.4 billion RMB this year, with projected year-on-year growth of 5.5% and 6.3% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [1] - The interim dividend increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 45.46%, slightly above the annual payout guidance [1] Sales and Growth Projections - Despite low growth in retail gas volume, the company added five city gas projects in the first half and expects to acquire another five projects in the second half, which will enhance annual gas volume contributions [1] - The company anticipates that the retail gas volume growth rate in the second half will be higher than that of the first half, with an expected year-on-year increase of 4.5% for the year, compared to the company's guidance of 5% [1] - The expected gross margin for gas sales is projected to remain at 0.44 RMB per cubic meter, while LNG processing volume is expected to increase by 1.6% year-on-year [1] Profitability of LNG Segment - The tax-pre profit for the LNG segment is projected to double to 260 million RMB this year, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [1]

报告中称，昆仑能源上半年盈利同比跌4.4%至31.6亿元人民币，仅达到该行原预期今年全年的45%，相 信期内燃气销售业务的税前盈利降10.6%是业绩低于预期的主因。不过，公司中期息同比增1.2%，派息 比率45.46%，则略高于全年派息指引。 该行表示，虽然昆仑能源的零售气量增长偏低，但上半年已新增5个城燃项目，预计下半年仍有另外5个 新收购项目，新项目年气量贡献将会提升，加上预期今年暖冬情况不会出现，管理层预计下半年零售气 量同比增速将较上半年高。该行预计，今年公司零售气销量将同比增加4.5%，对比公司指引则为增长 5%;预期售气毛差维持在上半年水平的每方0.44元人民币。另外，预期LNG加工量同比增1.6%，今年分 部税前利润增2倍至2.6亿元人民币，LNG分部税前利润同比增8.9%。 智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，下调昆仑能源(00135)今明两年的盈利预测8%和10%，以反 映对零售气销售增长预测下降。另预期今年核心盈利将大致持平约64亿元人民币，而2026及27年则分别 同比升5.5%和6.3%。该行将公司目标价由9.02港元下调至8.85港元，但认为股息率水平仍然吸引，续 予"买入"评级 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Kefa Investment has conducted research on Hangyang Co., which is expected to have significant production capacity and strategic developments in the helium market by 2025 [1] - Hangyang Co. plans to produce 500,000 cubic meters of air separation units by 2025, involving multiple projects [1] - The company has made progress in the helium sector, achieving domestic substitution for liquid helium tanks and establishing a joint venture for helium sales [1] Group 2 - In 2024, Hangyang Co. will reduce its dividends to maintain financial stability [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its retail gas terminal rate and increasing the number of bottled gas filling stations [1] - The overseas equipment orders are expected to have a higher gross margin due to price advantages and tax rebate policies [1] Group 3 - The company is actively exploring opportunities in emerging markets such as the Belt and Road Initiative, Southeast Asia, Africa, and India [1] - Retail gas prices were low in the first quarter, but the company maintains stable earnings due to the cost advantages of liquid sales from pipeline gas [1] - The future price recovery of argon gas in 2024 will depend on economic recovery, the development of the photovoltaic industry, and market supply-demand conditions [1]

Group 1: New Projects and Production - In 2025, several new air separation projects are expected to be launched, including Xuzhou Hangyang (50,600 m³), Shandong Hangyang (105,000 m³), Yunfu Hangyang (40,000 m³), and Zezhou Hangyang (80,000 m³) [1] - The company aims to maintain financial stability and may adjust its dividend policy to ensure a stable capital structure and sustainable future development [1] Group 2: Market and Pricing Insights - The first quarter liquid gas prices are at a relative low point, but the company benefits from cost advantages in liquid sales due to pipeline gas configuration, leading to stable earnings [2] - The company has established a helium sales joint venture to enhance market supply and meet electronic gas demand [2] Group 3: Equipment Orders and Overseas Expansion - The company anticipates increased investment in overseas business units and expansion opportunities in equipment exports, particularly in the western coal chemical sector [2] - Key overseas export regions for 2024 include the Belt and Road area, Southeast Asia, and emerging markets like Africa and India [2] Group 4: Retail Gas and Bottled Gas Development - The company expects fluctuations in terminal rates as liquid gas volumes increase, with terminal rate improvement being a long-term process [2] - In 2024, the company sold a total of 320,000 bottled gas units and plans to continue expanding its filling station network [3] Group 5: Profitability and Risk Management - The gross margin for overseas orders is generally higher due to competitive pricing and export tax rebate policies, although actual margins may vary by contract [3] - The company collaborates primarily with leading private enterprises, maintaining controllable risk and stable profitability [3] Group 6: Future Outlook - The company is focused on acquiring existing projects rather than new capital expenditures for air separation capacity, given the limited market growth [2] - Future pricing trends for retail gases, particularly argon, will depend on economic recovery, photovoltaic industry developments, and market supply-demand dynamics [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 135.91 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.49 billion yuan, down 36.6% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to fully privatize its subsidiary, New Energy, with a total transaction value of approximately 599.24 billion HKD [5][7] - The company’s platform trading gas sales volume reached 5.568 billion m³ in 2024, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year, while retail gas volume was 26.2 billion m³, with industrial and commercial gas maintaining a growth rate of 5.1% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 58.76 billion yuan and 73.84 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 86.41 billion yuan [6][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.46 yuan to 1.56 yuan post-privatization, representing a 6.8% increase [7] - The company’s dividend policy stipulates that from 2026 to 2028, the cash dividend ratio will be no less than 50% of the core profit attributable to shareholders [7] Market Data - As of March 26, 2025, the closing price was 19.65 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9 [2][6] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 55.808 billion yuan [2]