Core Logic - The company is accelerating its growth attributes through controllable nuclear fusion, quantum computing, and commercial aerospace. It has established partnerships with leading firms like Anhui Fusion New Energy and is continuously winning orders in controllable nuclear fusion, indicating a significant growth potential [1] - In quantum computing, the company has signed a cooperation agreement with Zhejiang University to focus on advanced fields such as "deep low temperature + advanced computing" and "industrial gases + AI models" [1] - In commercial aerospace, the company has won a bid for a large liquid oxygen tank construction project at a launch site, following its previous provision of liquid hydrogen storage tanks, showcasing its capabilities in high-precision low-temperature storage equipment [1] Industry Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the industrial gas sector, benefiting from both cyclical and growth attributes. The industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, with expectations for a performance turnaround in the future. The company is accelerating its layout in controllable nuclear fusion and other fields, opening up a second growth curve [1][2] Market Segments - Pipeline gas is characterized by its defensive attributes, showing stable growth with minimal impact from macroeconomic fluctuations. The company is expected to increase its market share in the third-party stock market to 30-40% by 2021, contributing to long-term performance growth [2] - Retail gas represents the company's offensive attributes, with potential for significant performance elasticity as gas prices are currently at historical lows. Economic recovery could drive gas price increases, enhancing the performance of retail gas [2] - The controllable nuclear fusion equipment, quantum computing, and commercial aerospace sectors present substantial future market opportunities, creating a second growth engine for the company [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is estimated at 1.07 billion, 1.30 billion, and 1.51 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 22%, and 17% respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 26, 21, and 18 times [3]

Summary of Hangyang Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Hangyang Co., Ltd. is a leading industrial gas company in China, benefiting from the stability of pipeline gas business and the flexibility of retail gas business, with a projected performance of approximately 1 billion yuan in 2025, primarily driven by pipeline gas contributions [2][12] Core Business Segments - The company's revenue structure consists of 70% from pipeline gas and 30% from retail gas, with plans to gradually increase the retail gas proportion to enhance profitability [2][5] - Core business areas include industrial gas equipment, pipeline gas, and retail gas, with pipeline and retail gas being significant growth drivers [10] Industry Dynamics - The Chinese industrial gas market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies holding over 70% market share. Hangyang is among these leaders, and successful integration with Yingde Gas could significantly enhance market share and pricing power [2][6] - The investment logic for the industrial gas industry in 2026 is based on supply-side reforms and increased market concentration, with expected profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) close to 20% over the next three years [4] Growth Opportunities - Hangyang is actively expanding into controllable nuclear fusion, commercial aerospace, and hydrogen energy sectors, aligning with national development priorities under the "14th Five-Year Plan," which will provide new growth momentum [2][8] - The controllable nuclear fusion sector is expected to create significant demand for low-temperature systems, with potential value contribution of 5% to 16% from this business [7] Competitive Positioning - Hangyang's current valuation is approximately 20 times earnings, lower than international peers like Linde and Air Liquide, which are valued at 25-30 times. The company’s valuation is expected to align more closely with these peers as it advances in nuclear fusion and industry consolidation [3][9][15] - The company possesses strong defensive attributes due to long-term contracts in pipeline gas, ensuring stable revenue even during economic downturns [11][12] Future Projections - Hangyang's performance is projected to grow by over 15% in 2025, with sustained growth of around 20% in 2026 and 2027. If the economic cycle reverses, growth rates could exceed 30% or even 50%, indicating potential for the market capitalization to double [2][9][15] Conclusion - Hangyang Co., Ltd. is well-positioned in the industrial gas sector with a robust growth strategy, strong market presence, and significant opportunities in emerging fields, making it a compelling investment opportunity in the context of industry consolidation and technological advancements [2][4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy [9] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve dual growth in profitability and dividends, leading to a revaluation of its long-term value [3] - The company has outlined its core business operational trends and significant progress, including retail gas volume growth, LNG industry chain synergy, LPG sales, and crude oil performance [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Business Performance - Retail gas volume growth for the first nine months is expected to return to 5%, driven by high single-digit growth from industrial users [4] - The LNG receiving station is projected to operate at an annual load factor of 85%-90% [4] - LPG sales showed high single-digit growth in the first nine months, with a slight increase expected for the full year [4] - Crude oil production is anticipated to stabilize at 8 million barrels for the year [4] Margin and Cost Trends - The gross margin for the first half was 0.44 RMB per cubic meter, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.01 RMB, influenced by gas station integration and promotional strategies for industrial users [4] - A stable to slightly increasing gross margin is expected in the second half due to cost optimization in winter [4] - Long-term demand for gas is expected to remain robust, supported by the dual carbon goals and industry pricing mechanisms [4] Long-term Planning and Non-gas Business - The company has clarified its long-term focus on five strategies: innovation, green energy, market, capital, and low cost [5] - The company aims to become a leading comprehensive energy supplier in China, with a natural gas terminal market share expected to match upstream supply [5] - The Shandong 380,000 kW onshore wind power project is planned to be operational by Q3 2026 [5] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend is set at 0.166 RMB per share, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with a payout ratio of 45.5% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a 2025 estimated dividend yield of 4.8% [4] - The dividend policy for 2023-2025 is expected to be steadily implemented, with a more positive outlook for 2026-2028 [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the forecast for the company's net profit attributable to the parent company at 6.15 billion, 6.49 billion, and 6.84 billion RMB for 2025-2027, respectively [6] - The target price is set at 8.58 HKD, based on an 11x PE for 2025E and an exchange rate of 0.91 for HKD to RMB [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's retail gas business shows steady growth, although the growth rate has slowed down. In Q3 2025, retail gas volume reached 6.24 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [5] - The company is progressing well with its privatization plan, which is expected to enhance upstream and downstream integration and collaboration after completion [5] - The company has a total of 8.7 million tons of overseas long-term contracts expected to be executed from 2025 to 2029, supporting robust growth in direct sales gas business [5][8] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend ratio of no less than 50% of core profit from 2026 to 2028, which is expected to enhance the company's value [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 95.856 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.91% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.426 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.87% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 29.865 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.93% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.018 billion yuan, an increase of 5.89% year-on-year [3] - The company’s core profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.777 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.04% year-on-year, while the basic earnings per share (EPS) was 1.23 yuan [2] Business Segment Performance - Retail gas volume for the first three quarters of 2025 was 19.19 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, with industrial and commercial gas volume at 15.21 billion cubic meters, up 2.5% [5] - Platform gas volume declined, with Q3 2025 platform transaction gas volume at 1.26 billion cubic meters, down 7.1% year-on-year [5] - The company’s diversified energy business saw steady expansion, with total sales volume of 28.99 billion kilowatt-hours in the first three quarters of 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a slight decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year, but a positive growth in net profit for Q3 compared to the previous year, indicating a mixed performance amidst fluctuating gas prices and demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 95.856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.426 billion yuan, down 1.87% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.018 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.89%, while the core net profit decreased by 6.89% to 1.041 billion yuan [1]. Sales and Market Dynamics - The company sold 3.95 billion cubic meters of platform trading gas in the first nine months, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, with a notable adjustment in trade flow due to falling international gas prices and rising domestic demand [1][2]. - International gas sales reached 1.43 billion cubic meters, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 270 million cubic meters, while domestic gas sales grew by 9.9 million cubic meters to 2.52 billion cubic meters [2]. Retail Gas Trends - Despite a national decline of 0.2% in apparent natural gas consumption, the company's retail gas volume increased by 2.0% year-on-year to 19.19 billion cubic meters, with industrial and commercial gas growth outpacing residential gas growth [2]. Infrastructure and Strategic Developments - The Zhoushan receiving station's unloading volume increased by 14.2% year-on-year to 1.98 million tons, with the company enhancing its capabilities through various service models [3]. - The company has completed the acquisition of a 10% stake in Zhoushan, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary, which is expected to contribute more to the company's net profit [3]. Privatization and Future Outlook - The ongoing privatization of the Hong Kong subsidiary, New World Energy, is expected to enhance shareholder returns post-asset restructuring, with a planned cash dividend of at least 50% of core profit from 2026 to 2028 [3]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 4.825 billion, 5.755 billion, and 6.387 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease due to lower overseas resale gas volumes and narrowing margins [4].

Core Viewpoint - CMB International has downgraded the valuation of Xin'ao Energy (02688) to a 10x forecast P/E ratio from the previous 11x, with the base year moved to 2026, and adjusted the target price from HKD 74.6 to HKD 73.66 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - Xin'ao Energy's core profit for the first half of the year decreased by 1% year-on-year to RMB 3.2 billion, aligning with market expectations [1] - The company is expected to see a 2.2% year-on-year increase in retail gas volume for the full year of 2025, with a 2.5% increase in the second half [1] - The gross margin for the retail gas segment is projected to be 10% [1] Business Outlook - The number of new residential connections is expected to decline by 8% year-on-year to 1.49 million, with the downward trend further slowing [1] - In the energy sales segment, a slight recovery is anticipated in the fourth quarter due to normalized heating demand, with an overall year-on-year increase of 4% in energy sales for the year [1] Earnings Forecast - Due to weakened retail gas volume and energy business demand, CMB International has reduced the company's earnings forecasts for the next two years by 0.1% and 1.8% respectively, with a projected compound annual growth rate of approximately 4% for earnings from 2024 to 2027 [1]

Group 1 - The core profit of the company slightly decreased by 1% year-on-year to 3.2 billion RMB, in line with market expectations [1] - Retail gas sales increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with commercial and residential gas sales growing by 2.4% and 1.3% respectively, while the retail gas gross margin remained stable at 10.2% [1] - The total installed capacity and operational capacity of the company's diversified energy business reached 15 GW and 13.9 GW, representing year-on-year growth of 9.2% and 8.5% respectively [1] Group 2 - The company expects a slight recovery in heating demand in the second half of 2025, predicting a 2.2% year-on-year increase in retail gas volume for the entire year [2] - The gross margin for the retail gas segment is anticipated to be around 10%, with new residential connections expected to decline by 8% to 1.49 million households [2] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 down by 0.1% and 1.8% respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4% from 2024 to 2027 [2]

Summary of Industrial Gas Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the industrial gas industry, particularly focusing on the impact of supply-side reforms and current anti-involution policies on the market dynamics and pricing of industrial gases such as liquid oxygen, nitrogen, and argon [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Supply-Side Reforms Impact**: The previous round of supply-side reforms led to a 13% reduction in steel production capacity from 1.13 billion tons to 980 million tons, causing a contraction in industrial gas supply and a subsequent price increase due to demand stimulation [3][13]. - **Current Market Dynamics**: The current anti-involution policies may replicate similar effects as past reforms, potentially leading to a reduction in excess capacity in the industrial gas sector, contingent on demand support [1][24]. - **Price Trends**: Retail gas prices are at a ten-year low, with liquid oxygen prices dropping to around 350 RMB per ton, which does not cover cash costs. The market is undergoing an automatic exit process, with prices expected to stabilize and possibly recover moderately in the future [18][19][20]. - **Demand from Solar Industry**: The solar industry has significantly increased the demand for liquid argon, although the beta of this sector has weakened, leading to a sharp decline in argon prices [10][14]. - **Pipeline Gas Market**: The pipeline gas market is influenced by capital expenditures in the steel and chemical industries. There are signs of recovery in capital spending, which may lead to an increase in new contracts [9][21]. Additional Important Insights - **Capacity Utilization Trends**: From 2016 to 2018, the capacity utilization rates for liquid oxygen, nitrogen, and argon increased from 60% to 64%-65%. However, from 2021 to 2023, these rates declined due to the pandemic and economic conditions [8][17]. - **Market Structure Changes**: The structure of gas demand is changing, with a decrease in the proportion of liquid oxygen used in metallurgy and an increase in demand from emerging industries like lithium battery materials [15][16]. - **Future Price Projections**: Future price increases for retail gases are expected to be moderate, with potential growth of 5% to 10% annually, which could significantly improve profitability for companies like Hangyang [20][23]. - **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: The anti-involution policies are expected to benefit companies closely linked to steel and chemical industries, such as Hangyang, Shandong Gold, and others, by reducing excess supply and improving market conditions [24][25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the industrial gas industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between supply-side reforms, market dynamics, and future trends.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in core profits despite a slight decline in overall revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025. The core profit reached 2.736 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.38% [1][2] - The privatization process of the company is progressing smoothly, which is expected to enhance upstream and downstream integration and collaboration after the transaction is completed [3][4] - The company has signed a long-term gas supply agreement with Chevron, which is anticipated to significantly boost its direct sales gas business [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 65.991 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.47% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.408 billion yuan, down 4.82% year-on-year. However, the net profit after deducting non-recurring items increased by 21.13% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 32.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.54%, but a net profit of 1.431 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 1.23% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 46.58% [2] - The company’s retail gas sales volume for the first half of 2025 was 12.95 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with industrial and commercial users accounting for 75.6% of the total [3] - The company’s projected core net profits for 2025-2027 are 5.695 billion yuan, 6.399 billion yuan, and 7.107 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.84 yuan, 2.07 yuan, and 2.29 yuan [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 66.015 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.47%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.408 billion yuan, down 4.82%. However, core profit increased by 1.4% to 2.736 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [7] - The platform trading gas market showed resilience, with sales volume reaching 2.689 billion cubic meters in H1 2025, only a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year, despite a 20.6% drop in LNG imports [7] - Retail gas volume grew by 1.9% year-on-year to 12.95 billion cubic meters, outperforming the industry average, with retail gas revenue of 33.627 billion yuan and a gross profit of 4.69 billion yuan, up 2.3% [7] - The Zhoushan receiving station's unloading volume increased by 11.7% year-on-year to 1.137 million tons in H1 2025, with plans for further capacity expansion [7] - The company's total liabilities decreased to 29.736 billion yuan, with a net debt ratio of 21.2%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved financial health [7] - The privatization of the subsidiary, Xin'ao Energy, is progressing, with plans for annual cash dividends of no less than 50% of the core profit, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns [7] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 5.155 billion, 6.419 billion, and 7.104 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 136.829 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.7% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 5.155 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [6] - The earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 1.66 yuan, with a gross margin of 14.2% [6]