Group 1 - The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the U.S. for the week ending August 23 is 1.94 million, which is lower than the expected 1.962 million [1] - The previous value of continuing claims was revised from 1.954 million to 1.944 million [1]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated August 29, 2025, covering precious metals and base metals such as gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Gold is affected by JH meeting with Powell dovish remarks; silver is reaching the previous high; copper prices rise as the dollar falls; zinc shows a weak oscillation; lead prices are supported by inventory reduction; tin and aluminum are in range - bound oscillations; alumina has an obvious supply surplus; nickel runs in a narrow - range oscillation; stainless steel oscillates at a low level in the short - term [2] By Metals Precious Metals Gold - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 783.22 with a daily increase of 0.26%, and the night - session closing price was 785.02 with a 0.29% increase. Comex Gold 2510 had a 0.73% increase. The trend strength is 1 [5][9] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, ETF holdings, inventory, and price spreads are provided [5] Silver - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9377 with a 0.77% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9405.00 with a 0.90% increase. Comex Silver 2510 had a 1.31% increase. The trend strength is 1 [5][9] - **Fundamentals**: Similar data to gold including trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads are presented [5] Base Metals Copper - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,930 with a - 0.33% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 78990 with a 0.08% increase. LME Copper 3M had a 0.68% increase. The trend strength is 1 [11][13] - **Fundamentals**: Information on trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads is provided. Codelco lowered its copper output target for this year [11][13] Zinc - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22170 with a - 0.63% decrease, and LME Zinc 3M had a - 1.53% decrease. The trend strength is 0 [14][15] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory are given. The US second - quarter GDP data was revised upwards [14][15] Lead - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16910 with a 0.12% increase, and LME Lead 3M had a - 0.08% decrease. The trend strength is 0 [17][18] - **Fundamentals**: Information on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory shows a reduction in inventory [17][18] Tin - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 272,680 with a 0.33% increase, and LME Tin 3M had a 0.91% increase. The trend strength is 1 [20][23] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads are provided [20][23] Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Trends**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20750, LME Aluminum 3M at 2607. Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 3013, and the casting aluminum alloy's main contract closed at 20350. Trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, - 1 for alumina, and 0 for casting aluminum alloy [24][25] - **Fundamentals**: Comprehensive data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, inventory, and industry costs and profits are presented [24][25] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 120,990, and stainless steel's main contract closed at 12,850. The trend strengths are both 0 [26][31] - **Fundamentals**: Information on prices, spreads, and industry news such as production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelters is provided [26][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly-on-quarter was revised up to 3.3%, with business investment as the main driving force, and the PCE price index remained flat [7]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with potential for limited downward movement in freight rates in the medium - term [8][9]. - Cotton futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the downward pressure after the new cotton is launched [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Data - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarter was revised up to 3.3%, with business investment growing by 5.7%, and net exports contributing nearly 5 percentage points to GDP growth. Consumer spending growth was revised up to 1.6%. The core PCE price index rose 2.5%, unchanged from the initial value [7]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased slightly to 229,000, and the number of continued claims decreased to 1.954 million, both lower than expected [17]. 3.2 Commodity Market Analysis 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold: After the JH meeting, Powell's dovish remarks influenced the market. The trend strength is 1. The prices of Shanghai gold and Comex gold showed certain increases [12][16][17]. - Silver: It is approaching the previous high. The trend strength is 1. The prices of Shanghai silver and Comex silver also increased [12][16][17]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Copper: With the decline of the US dollar, the price rose. Codelco lowered its copper output target for this year. The trend strength is 1 [12][23]. - Zinc: It is oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0 [12][26]. - Lead: The decrease in inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0 [12][29]. - Tin: It is oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 1 [12][32]. - Aluminum: It is oscillating within a range. Alumina has an obvious supply surplus. Cast aluminum alloy is oscillating within a range. The trend strengths are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [12][36]. - Nickel: It is operating in a narrow - range oscillation. Stainless steel is oscillating at a low level in the short - term. The trend strengths are both 0 [12][39]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Inventory reduction is limited, and it is oscillating within a range. The trend strength is - 1 [12][45]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the upward space. The trend strength is - 1 [12][48]. - Polysilicon: The upstream inventory is being reduced, and market information should be monitored. The trend strength is - 1 [12][49]. 3.2.4 Building Materials and Metals - Iron Ore: Due to the repeated macro - expectations, it is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][52]. - Rebar: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][54]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][55]. - Ferrosilicon: Disturbed by market information, it is oscillating widely within a day. The trend strength is 0 [12][58]. - Silicomanganese: Disturbed by market information, it is oscillating widely within a day. The trend strength is 0 [12][58]. - Coke: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][61]. - Coking Coal: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][61]. 3.2.5 Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It is under pressure in the short - term, and the freight rate may have limited downward movement in the medium - term. The 2510 short position should take profit on dips, and attention should be paid to the 12 - 04 positive spread entry opportunity in the next 1 - 2 weeks [8][9]. - Cotton: Concerns about short - term supply shortages and high basis support the price. It is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the downward pressure after the new cotton is launched [10][71].

Core Insights - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the U.S. for the week ending July 19 is reported at 1.946 million, slightly below the expected 1.955 million, with the previous value revised from 1.955 million to 1.946 million [1] Summary by Category - **Unemployment Claims Data** - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits stand at 1.946 million, which is a decrease from the previously reported figure [1] - The expectation for the claims was 1.955 million, indicating a better-than-expected outcome [1] - The prior week's figure was revised down from 1.955 million to 1.946 million, reflecting a slight improvement in the labor market [1]

Core Insights - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the U.S. for the week ending July 5 is reported at 1.956 million, slightly below the expected 1.965 million [1] - The previous week's figure has been revised from 1.965 million to 1.954 million, indicating a minor adjustment in the data [1] Summary by Category - **Unemployment Claims** - Current continuing claims stand at 1.956 million, which is lower than the market expectation of 1.965 million [1] - The prior week's claims were revised down from 1.965 million to 1.954 million, reflecting a decrease in the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits [1]

Group 1 - The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the U.S. as of the week ending April 26 is 1.916 million, which is higher than the expected 1.864 million [1] - The previous value of continuing claims was revised from 1.841 million to 1.833 million [1]

Core Insights - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the U.S. for the week ending April 12 is reported at 1.841 million, which is lower than the expected 1.875 million [1] - The previous week's figure was revised down from 1.885 million to 1.878 million, indicating a slight improvement in the labor market [1] Summary by Category - **Unemployment Claims** - Current continuing claims: 1.841 million [1] - Expected claims: 1.875 million [1] - Previous week's claims revised: from 1.885 million to 1.878 million [1]