Group 1 - The U.S. government has added uranium, copper, and silver to its list of critical minerals, indicating an expansion of commodities deemed essential for the economy and national security [3] - The updated list from the U.S. Geological Survey also includes metallurgical coal, potash, rhenium, silicon, and lead, replacing the 2022 version [3] - This list will inform the Section 232 investigation announced by the Trump administration in April, which may lead to tariffs and trade restrictions on critical minerals and their derivatives [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 37th day, with many federal employees facing unpaid status, and military personnel receiving only partial pay [3] - Senator John Kennedy has indicated that the shutdown may continue for some time and plans to propose a bill to suspend congressional salaries during the shutdown [3] Group 3 - Gold futures are currently trading at 918.68 yuan per gram, with a slight increase of 0.44%, reaching a high of 922.84 yuan and a low of 912.00 yuan [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 927 yuan and 1020 yuan per gram, while important support levels are between 896 yuan and 960 yuan per gram [4]

Core Points - The U.S. has added copper and silver to its list of critical minerals essential for the economy and national security, expanding the list to 60 minerals from 50 in 2022 [1] - The updated list includes other notable minerals such as uranium, metallurgical coal, potash, rhenium, silicon, and lead [1] - The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed an economic model to assess the potential impacts of disruptions in mineral trade, covering 84 minerals and over 1,200 scenarios [1] Group 1: Copper - Copper is recognized for its strategic importance due to its extensive applications in transportation, defense, and power network construction, especially with rising electricity demand from data centers and AI [3] - The U.S. imports nearly half of its copper consumption, primarily from Chile, Peru, and Canada, while most global copper refining capacity is concentrated in China [3] - The resource sector has been advocating for the inclusion of copper in the critical minerals list to secure federal funding and streamline government approval processes [3] Group 2: Silver - The inclusion of silver has raised concerns among precious metal traders and manufacturers reliant on the material, as the U.S. heavily depends on imports to meet domestic silver demand [4] - Any tariffs on silver could severely impact the metal market, given its widespread industrial applications in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices [4] - The USGS indicated that silver was added to address potential supply disruptions from Mexico, categorizing critical minerals by risk levels for the first time [4]

Group 1: Hot News - A major integration may be coming to the polysilicon industry. A "consortium" platform for polysilicon restructuring is being planned, with a fund of around 70 billion yuan expected to be established and a "debt - assumption" acquisition method using tens of billions to leverage 70 billion yuan under discussion [2] - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, has stopped approving applications for nickel ore processing plants producing certain intermediate products to increase production value - added and solve the oversupply problem. Indonesia accounts for about 60% of global nickel production [2] - The US Geological Survey included copper in its 2025 critical minerals list for the first time, marking the most significant adjustment since 2018. Uranium, silver, metallurgical coal, potash, rhenium, silicon, and lead were also added [2] - As of the week ending November 6, the production and apparent demand of rebar decreased, while the factory and social inventories declined for four consecutive weeks. Rebar social inventory was 4.257 million tons, a decrease of 51,100 tons or 1.19% from the previous week; rebar apparent demand was 2.1852 million tons, a decrease of 136,600 tons or 5.88% [2] - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 3.77 million tons, higher than 2.34 million tons in the same period last year; soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.23 million tons, higher than 1.73 million tons last year; and corn exports are expected to be 5.57 million tons, higher than 4.92 million tons last year [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch include urea, lithium carbonate, fuel oil, asphalt, and crude oil [3] - Night - session performance shows that the non - metallic building materials sector rose 3.13%, the precious metals sector rose 28.31%, the oilseeds and oils sector rose 9.66%, the non - ferrous and soft commodities sector rose 2.80% and had an increase in position ratio of 23.07%, the coal, coke, steel, and ore sector rose 13.56%, the energy sector rose 2.88%, the chemical sector rose 11.40%, the grain sector rose 1.21%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 3.97% [3] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days for various sectors including agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal, coke, steel, and ore, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.97% daily, 1.34% monthly, and 19.57% year - to - date; the SSE 50 rose 1.22% daily, - 0.12% monthly, and 13.41% year - to - date; the CSI 300 rose 1.43% daily, - 0.29% monthly, and 19.28% year - to - date; the CSI 500 rose 1.61% daily, - 1.39% monthly, and 28.29% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 1.12% daily, - 0.64% monthly, and rose 14.26% year - to - date; the Hang Seng Index rose 2.12% daily, 0.11% monthly, and 32.03% year - to - date; the German DAX fell 1.29% daily, rose 0.38% monthly, and 19.24% year - to - date; the Nikkei 225 rose 1.34% daily, - 4.20% monthly, and 27.55% year - to - date; the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.42% daily, rose 0.62% monthly, and 19.12% year - to - date [5] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.09% daily, - 0.13% monthly, and - 0.36% year - to - date; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.03% daily, - 0.09% monthly, and - 0.54% year - to - date; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01% daily, - 0.05% monthly, and - 0.46% year - to - date [5] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index was flat daily, - 0.09% monthly, and rose 1.87% year - to - date; WTI crude oil fell 0.17% daily, - 2.09% monthly, and - 17.27% year - to - date; London spot gold fell 0.07% daily, - 0.57% monthly, and rose 51.55% year - to - date; LME copper was flat daily, - 2.23% monthly, and rose 22.22% year - to - date; the Wind commodity index rose 0.58% daily, - 2.67% monthly, and 27.89% year - to - date [5] - In other categories, the US dollar index fell 0.46% daily, rose 0.43% monthly, and - 8.10% year - to - date; the CBOE volatility index was flat daily, rose 8.94% monthly, and 3.80% year - to - date [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market shows inventory increase and price fluctuations. The trend strength of copper is neutral, with a value of 0 [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main - contract was 86,320 with a daily increase of 0.76%, and the night - session closing price was 85,690 with a decline of 0.73%. The LME copper 3M electronic - disk price was 10,687 with a decline of 0.43% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 207,959, a decrease of 72,044 from the previous day, and the open interest was 557,346, a decrease of 299. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic - disk was 16,169, a decrease of 4,560, and the open interest was 335,000, an increase of 577 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 43,893, an increase of 1,332, and the LME copper inventory was 134,475, an increase of 500. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 7.96%, an increase of 0.01% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread was - 38.37, a decrease of 7.92 from the previous day. The Shanghai copper spot - to - futures near - month spread was 30, an increase of 5 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: In October, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in the US reached the highest level for the same period in more than two decades. The direction of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is unclear [1]. - **Industry News**: Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained an environmental permit for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter. Indonesia granted Amman Mineral Internasional a 400,000 - ton copper - concentrate export quota. Chile's copper production in September was 456,663 tons, a 7.79% month - on - month increase and a 4.5% year - on - year decrease. Glencore plans to close its Horn smelter and Canadian copper refinery in Quebec, Canada. The US included copper in its new critical - minerals list. Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia [1][3].

Core Points - The U.S. government has made its largest adjustment to the critical minerals list since its inception, directly impacting the Section 232 investigation announced by the Trump administration in April, which may lead to tariffs and trade restrictions on related products [1] - The updated list now includes copper, uranium, silver, metallurgical coal, potash, rhenium, silicon, and lead, marking a significant change from the 2022 version [1] - This adjustment aims to reduce U.S. reliance on imports and expand domestic production, as stated by U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum [1] Group 1 - The inclusion of copper and potash addresses supply chain risks, with copper being crucial for electrification, defense, and clean energy [4][5] - The U.S. imports nearly half of its copper consumption, primarily from Chile, Peru, and Canada, while most global copper refining capacity is concentrated in China [5] - Potash, used mainly for fertilizer production, is largely imported from Canada, with 80% of U.S. usage coming from there [5] Group 2 - The addition of silver has raised concerns among precious metal traders and manufacturers reliant on the material, as the U.S. heavily depends on imports to meet domestic silver demand [6] - Silver's inclusion is a response to potential supply disruptions from Mexico, with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) categorizing minerals by risk levels for the first time [6] - The new assessment method considers economic consequences of supply shocks and highlights vulnerabilities from reliance on single domestic producers [6] Group 3 - Metallurgical coal and uranium were added to the final list despite not being included in the draft published in August, indicating a comprehensive evaluation process [7] - Metallurgical coal is essential for steel production, while uranium serves as fuel for nuclear power plants [7] - The USGS removed arsenic and tellurium from the critical minerals list due to decreased supply disruption risks and increased domestic production [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has made its largest adjustment to the critical minerals list since its inception, directly impacting the Section 232 investigation announced by the Trump administration, which may lead to tariffs and trade restrictions on related products [1]. Group 1: Key Minerals Added - Copper has been added to the critical minerals list for the first time, marking a significant change since the list was first published in 2018 [1]. - The updated list also includes uranium, silver, metallurgical coal, potash, rhenium, silicon, and lead, replacing the 2022 version [1]. - The inclusion of these minerals aims to reduce U.S. dependence on imports and expand domestic production [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new critical minerals list, copper ETFs rose approximately 2%, while Southern Copper Corporation increased by 1.6%. In contrast, Freeport and McEwen saw declines of 1.2% and 1.9%, respectively [4]. - The decision on the critical minerals list will influence mining investments, recycling of mining waste, tax incentives for mineral processing, and mining permit approval processes [4]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of Copper and Potash - Copper is recognized for its strategic importance due to its applications in transportation, defense, and power network construction, especially as demand for electricity rises with the growth of data centers and artificial intelligence [5]. - The U.S. imports nearly half of its copper consumption, primarily from Chile, Peru, and Canada, with most global refining capacity concentrated in China [5]. - Potash, primarily used in fertilizer production, has been included due to potential trade barriers from major supplying countries, with about 80% of U.S. potash imports coming from Canada [5]. Group 4: Concerns Over Silver - The addition of silver to the critical minerals list has raised concerns among precious metal traders and manufacturers reliant on the material, as the U.S. heavily depends on imports to meet domestic silver demand [6]. - Silver is widely used in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices, and any tariffs on silver could significantly impact the metal market [6]. Group 5: New Assessment Methods - A new assessment method has been introduced to evaluate the economic consequences of supply shocks and highlight vulnerabilities associated with reliance on single domestic producers [7]. - The updated list includes metallurgical coal and uranium, which were not part of the draft published in August, indicating a comprehensive evaluation process [7]. - Arsenic and tellurium have been removed from the critical minerals list due to changes in domestic production and supply risk assessments [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, surpassing $40 for the first time in 14 years, is accompanied by a significant increase in silver leasing rates, raising concerns about potential U.S. tariffs impacting supply and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver leasing rates in the London market have surged above 5%, indicating a tight supply situation [7]. - The price discrepancy between New York futures and London spot prices has reached approximately $0.70, reflecting heightened demand for immediate metal availability [6]. - The inclusion of silver in the proposed "critical minerals list" by the U.S. Department of the Interior could lead to a potential 50% import tariff, further complicating market conditions [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Investment in silver-backed ETFs has increased significantly, with year-to-date gains exceeding 40%, contributing to a decline in London silver inventories [5]. - Analysts predict that if tariffs are imposed, the price spread between silver and palladium could widen significantly, with a bullish forecast of silver reaching $43 per ounce in the next 6-12 months [5][6]. - The current market sentiment suggests that investors are increasingly optimistic about the sustained rise in silver prices, reducing the likelihood of a sell-off [8].

Group 1 - Silver prices have surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, with a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1] - The rise in silver prices is in line with other precious metals, driven primarily by market expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - Geopolitical tensions and an uncertain financial environment have increased investor demand for safe-haven assets like silver [3] Group 2 - The silver market is experiencing a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by rising demand for clean energy technologies [6] - There has been a significant influx of funds into silver ETFs, marking the longest continuous inflow period since 2020 [6] - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list is seen as a potential precursor to high import tariffs, adding upward pressure on silver prices [7][9] Group 3 - The potential for high import tariffs on silver, possibly up to 50%, is being underestimated by the market, given the U.S. reliance on silver imports [9] - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook for silver prices, projecting them to reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months [9]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by various factors including monetary policy expectations and geopolitical tensions [1][5]. Group 1: Price Movement - On September 1, silver prices broke the $40 per ounce mark, reaching $40.44 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1]. - The rise in silver prices is in line with other precious metals, such as gold, which also reached new highs since April [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals is the growing market expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its upcoming policy meeting, which typically benefits non-yielding assets like silver [5]. - Geopolitical tensions and an uncertain financial environment have increased investor demand for safe-haven assets [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is facing a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by rising demand for clean energy technologies, such as solar panels [6]. - There has been a continuous inflow of funds into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), marking the longest streak of inflows since 2020 [6]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list is seen as a potential precursor to imposing high import tariffs, which could further boost silver prices [8][9]. - Analysts note that the U.S. relies heavily on silver imports, with a dependency rate of 64%, and the potential for tariffs has not been fully priced into the market [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook for silver, projecting prices to reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months, and recommends investors hold long positions in COMEX silver [10].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 40% [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 1, silver prices reached $40.44 per ounce, marking a nearly 2% daily increase [2]. - The rise in silver prices is in line with other precious metals, including gold, which also hit new highs since April [5]. - The primary driver of this surge is the market's growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its upcoming policy meeting, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals [8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The silver market is facing a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by increasing demand for clean energy technologies such as solar panels [10]. - Strong fundamentals have attracted significant investment, with silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeing continuous inflows for seven consecutive months, the longest streak since 2020 [11]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list has added momentum to the price increase, as it signals potential government actions to reduce import reliance and boost domestic production [13][14]. - Market analysts suggest that this policy could lead to the imposition of high import tariffs, potentially up to 50%, due to the U.S.'s high dependency on silver imports, which stands at 64% [15][16]. - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook, projecting silver prices could reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months, recommending investors hold long positions in COMEX silver [17].