格隆汇9月26日｜美联储古尔斯比表示，美联储政策一直保持温和紧缩，未见关税对价格产生二次影 响。在通胀上升时保持利率稳定，等同于降息，新GDP数据并没有改变我对增长趋势的看法。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated August 29, 2025, covering precious metals and base metals such as gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Gold is affected by JH meeting with Powell dovish remarks; silver is reaching the previous high; copper prices rise as the dollar falls; zinc shows a weak oscillation; lead prices are supported by inventory reduction; tin and aluminum are in range - bound oscillations; alumina has an obvious supply surplus; nickel runs in a narrow - range oscillation; stainless steel oscillates at a low level in the short - term [2] By Metals Precious Metals Gold - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 783.22 with a daily increase of 0.26%, and the night - session closing price was 785.02 with a 0.29% increase. Comex Gold 2510 had a 0.73% increase. The trend strength is 1 [5][9] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, ETF holdings, inventory, and price spreads are provided [5] Silver - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9377 with a 0.77% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9405.00 with a 0.90% increase. Comex Silver 2510 had a 1.31% increase. The trend strength is 1 [5][9] - **Fundamentals**: Similar data to gold including trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads are presented [5] Base Metals Copper - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,930 with a - 0.33% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 78990 with a 0.08% increase. LME Copper 3M had a 0.68% increase. The trend strength is 1 [11][13] - **Fundamentals**: Information on trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads is provided. Codelco lowered its copper output target for this year [11][13] Zinc - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22170 with a - 0.63% decrease, and LME Zinc 3M had a - 1.53% decrease. The trend strength is 0 [14][15] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory are given. The US second - quarter GDP data was revised upwards [14][15] Lead - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16910 with a 0.12% increase, and LME Lead 3M had a - 0.08% decrease. The trend strength is 0 [17][18] - **Fundamentals**: Information on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory shows a reduction in inventory [17][18] Tin - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 272,680 with a 0.33% increase, and LME Tin 3M had a 0.91% increase. The trend strength is 1 [20][23] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads are provided [20][23] Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Trends**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20750, LME Aluminum 3M at 2607. Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 3013, and the casting aluminum alloy's main contract closed at 20350. Trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, - 1 for alumina, and 0 for casting aluminum alloy [24][25] - **Fundamentals**: Comprehensive data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, inventory, and industry costs and profits are presented [24][25] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 120,990, and stainless steel's main contract closed at 12,850. The trend strengths are both 0 [26][31] - **Fundamentals**: Information on prices, spreads, and industry news such as production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelters is provided [26][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly-on-quarter was revised up to 3.3%, with business investment as the main driving force, and the PCE price index remained flat [7]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with potential for limited downward movement in freight rates in the medium - term [8][9]. - Cotton futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the downward pressure after the new cotton is launched [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Data - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarter was revised up to 3.3%, with business investment growing by 5.7%, and net exports contributing nearly 5 percentage points to GDP growth. Consumer spending growth was revised up to 1.6%. The core PCE price index rose 2.5%, unchanged from the initial value [7]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased slightly to 229,000, and the number of continued claims decreased to 1.954 million, both lower than expected [17]. 3.2 Commodity Market Analysis 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold: After the JH meeting, Powell's dovish remarks influenced the market. The trend strength is 1. The prices of Shanghai gold and Comex gold showed certain increases [12][16][17]. - Silver: It is approaching the previous high. The trend strength is 1. The prices of Shanghai silver and Comex silver also increased [12][16][17]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Copper: With the decline of the US dollar, the price rose. Codelco lowered its copper output target for this year. The trend strength is 1 [12][23]. - Zinc: It is oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0 [12][26]. - Lead: The decrease in inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0 [12][29]. - Tin: It is oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 1 [12][32]. - Aluminum: It is oscillating within a range. Alumina has an obvious supply surplus. Cast aluminum alloy is oscillating within a range. The trend strengths are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [12][36]. - Nickel: It is operating in a narrow - range oscillation. Stainless steel is oscillating at a low level in the short - term. The trend strengths are both 0 [12][39]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Inventory reduction is limited, and it is oscillating within a range. The trend strength is - 1 [12][45]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the upward space. The trend strength is - 1 [12][48]. - Polysilicon: The upstream inventory is being reduced, and market information should be monitored. The trend strength is - 1 [12][49]. 3.2.4 Building Materials and Metals - Iron Ore: Due to the repeated macro - expectations, it is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][52]. - Rebar: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][54]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][55]. - Ferrosilicon: Disturbed by market information, it is oscillating widely within a day. The trend strength is 0 [12][58]. - Silicomanganese: Disturbed by market information, it is oscillating widely within a day. The trend strength is 0 [12][58]. - Coke: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][61]. - Coking Coal: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [12][61]. 3.2.5 Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It is under pressure in the short - term, and the freight rate may have limited downward movement in the medium - term. The 2510 short position should take profit on dips, and attention should be paid to the 12 - 04 positive spread entry opportunity in the next 1 - 2 weeks [8][9]. - Cotton: Concerns about short - term supply shortages and high basis support the price. It is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the downward pressure after the new cotton is launched [10][71].

Core Viewpoint - Powell indicates that inflation is further from the target compared to the employment market [1] Group 1 - GDP data shows fluctuations on a quarterly basis, which are often revised later [1] - Employment market is considered the best economic data that can be controlled [1]

Core Insights - The performance of GDP data aligns closely with the expectations of the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1] Group 1 - The GDP data reflects a consistent trend with the Federal Reserve's forecasts [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recently released second-quarter GDP data is significantly better than expected, as stated by Trump [1] Group 2 - The news highlights the positive economic performance indicated by the GDP data, suggesting potential implications for market sentiment and investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump stated that the Federal Reserve must lower interest rates, especially following the release of second-quarter GDP data that exceeded expectations [1] Group 1 - The second-quarter GDP data was released and showed significantly better performance than anticipated [1]

盯盘神器·现货黄金：抵达1H最强支撑，跌势会否继续延伸？ 在美国二季度GDP数据高于预期后，现货黄金短线开始下挫，目前抵达期权押注较重要处集中处3319-3324，可以先留意此处的 支撑力度。而小时级别指标共振点也显示，3319.89-3323.11为当下最强支撑位。不过结合实盘多空订单比来看，50.2%订单做 空，49.8%做多为主，暗示资金情绪仍略偏空为主。具体见"VIP专区-盯盘神器"。 盯盘神器使用指南 现货黄金 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices rebounded slightly from $3320, filling the short position gap at the start of the week, supported by a temporary weakening of the dollar due to investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [1] - The optimistic trade atmosphere between the US and Europe, along with easing tensions in US-China and US-Japan relations, has reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, leading to a market characterized by oscillation [1] - Current gold prices are at a crossroads of macroeconomic dynamics and technical adjustments, with the Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty prompting a brief return to gold for safety, while global trade optimism limits upward movement [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The weekly chart shows a significant upper shadow of $102, indicating potential bearish trends if the upward shadow continues in July [3] - The price is expected to face resistance at the $3350 level, which is crucial for determining the short-term market direction, with potential downward targets at $3245 and $3120 [3] - The overall strategy suggests a focus on short positions during rebounds, with key resistance at $3350-$3360 and support at $3320-$3310 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - US crude oil futures rose by $0.22 to $65.38 per barrel, while Brent crude increased slightly to $68.66 per barrel, despite previous declines to a three-week low [4] - The market is currently digesting the potential supply increase from Venezuela, which may exert additional pressure on prices if the US allows the country to resume oil exports [4] - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $65 and $68, with attention on the outcomes of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates a mid-term upward trend testing near $78, but the subjective direction appears to be downward [5] - Short-term trends show resistance at $66.70, with expectations of a weak rebound followed by a continued downward movement [5] - The strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with resistance at $67.0-$68.0 and support at $63.5-$62.5 [5]

Economic Performance - The U.S. stock market saw gains with the Dow Jones up 1.26%, Nasdaq up 1.02%, and S&P 500 up 1.46% for the week [1] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.43%, while Germany's DAX 30 fell 0.30% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.15% [1] - The Eurozone is set to release Q2 GDP data, which will provide insights into the impact of tariff uncertainties on the economy [8] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting [3] - Recent inflation data indicates a rise, suggesting a strong economy, which may influence future rate decisions [3][4] - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential rate cut in October, with the job market and economic indicators being closely monitored [4] Trade Agreements and Tariffs - President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, which may serve as a template for negotiations with the EU, particularly regarding a 15% tariff rate [3] - The deadline for the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" is August 1, raising concerns about potential market volatility depending on the outcome of trade negotiations [3][4] Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is gaining momentum, with major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta set to report their results [5] - Other notable companies to watch include Procter & Gamble, VISA, and UnitedHealth [5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI crude down 1.35% to $65.16 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.21% to $68.44 per barrel [6] - Gold prices fell by 0.57%, closing at $3334.00 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and positive trade negotiation signals [6][7] Economic Indicators - Key economic data releases this week include the U.S. Q2 GDP initial estimate, PCE inflation data, and the July non-farm payroll report [4][5] - The UK is set to release various economic indicators, including the nationwide house price index and consumer credit data, which may provide insights into future economic trends [8]