Core Viewpoint - Powell indicates that inflation is further from the target compared to the employment market [1] Group 1 - GDP data shows fluctuations on a quarterly basis, which are often revised later [1] - Employment market is considered the best economic data that can be controlled [1]

Core Insights - The performance of GDP data aligns closely with the expectations of the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1] Group 1 - The GDP data reflects a consistent trend with the Federal Reserve's forecasts [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recently released second-quarter GDP data is significantly better than expected, as stated by Trump [1] Group 2 - The news highlights the positive economic performance indicated by the GDP data, suggesting potential implications for market sentiment and investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump stated that the Federal Reserve must lower interest rates, especially following the release of second-quarter GDP data that exceeded expectations [1] Group 1 - The second-quarter GDP data was released and showed significantly better performance than anticipated [1]

Economic Performance - The U.S. stock market saw gains with the Dow Jones up 1.26%, Nasdaq up 1.02%, and S&P 500 up 1.46% for the week [1] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.43%, while Germany's DAX 30 fell 0.30% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.15% [1] - The Eurozone is set to release Q2 GDP data, which will provide insights into the impact of tariff uncertainties on the economy [8] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting [3] - Recent inflation data indicates a rise, suggesting a strong economy, which may influence future rate decisions [3][4] - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential rate cut in October, with the job market and economic indicators being closely monitored [4] Trade Agreements and Tariffs - President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, which may serve as a template for negotiations with the EU, particularly regarding a 15% tariff rate [3] - The deadline for the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" is August 1, raising concerns about potential market volatility depending on the outcome of trade negotiations [3][4] Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is gaining momentum, with major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta set to report their results [5] - Other notable companies to watch include Procter & Gamble, VISA, and UnitedHealth [5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI crude down 1.35% to $65.16 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.21% to $68.44 per barrel [6] - Gold prices fell by 0.57%, closing at $3334.00 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and positive trade negotiation signals [6][7] Economic Indicators - Key economic data releases this week include the U.S. Q2 GDP initial estimate, PCE inflation data, and the July non-farm payroll report [4][5] - The UK is set to release various economic indicators, including the nationwide house price index and consumer credit data, which may provide insights into future economic trends [8]

Economic Data - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2-M1 spread narrowing [1] - China's exports in June, measured in USD, grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.1% [1] - Rare earth exports reached the highest level since 2009, iron ore imports hit a year-to-date high, and steel exports in Q2 set a record [1] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index barely rose as investors awaited US inflation data [1] - Bitcoin experienced a pullback after reaching a new high [1] - Crude oil prices fell by 3% [1] Trade Relations - The EU is preparing to impose counter-tariffs on US goods worth 720 billion euros [1] - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia if a peace agreement regarding Ukraine is not reached within 50 days [1] Corporate Developments - Elon Musk announced that a "monumental" demonstration of the next-generation Optimus robot is expected by the end of the year [1] - Meta is planning to invest hundreds of billions to build the world's largest data center and is considering shifting from open-source to closed-source [1] Upcoming Data Releases - China is set to release significant GDP data on Tuesday, while the US will announce June CPI data on the same day [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Multiple data releases are expected to impact gold prices, with unemployment claims and GDP likely to be bearish, while PCE data may provide bullish support [1] - Recent trading showed gold prices dropping significantly, breaking key support levels, with a notable decline to 3295 [3] - The current market is characterized by a "Bollinger Band squeeze," indicating potential for a directional breakout [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3310, with a target of 3330-3350 [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver is at a critical juncture around 36 USD, with technical indicators showing potential for volatility [6] - Key resistance is identified at 37.291 USD, with a breakthrough potentially leading towards 38 USD [6] - Suggested trading strategy involves buying on dips between 35.90-35.80 USD, with a target of 36.30-36.50 USD [6] Group 3: Market Influences - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain uncertain, while the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts adds complexity to the market [4] - A weakening dollar and rising inflation expectations may provide support for gold prices [1] - The performance of gold and silver is closely tied to economic data releases and geopolitical developments [1][4]

Core Insights - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, expressed disappointment over the GDP data for the period of February to April, indicating a need for decisive action to stimulate economic growth [1] Economic Performance - The GDP data for February to April was described as "significantly disappointing," highlighting potential challenges in the UK economy [1] - The Chancellor's remarks suggest a focus on strategies to enhance economic performance in the near future [1]

Economic Data Releases - Australia's Q1 GDP data will be released, providing insights into the country's economic performance [1] - France's final services PMI for May will be published, indicating the health of the services sector [2] - Germany's final services PMI for May will also be released, contributing to the understanding of the economic landscape [3] - The Eurozone's final services PMI for May will be available, reflecting the overall services sector performance in the region [4] - The UK's final services PMI for May will be announced, offering a glimpse into the British services industry [5] - The US ADP employment figures for May will be disclosed, which are crucial for assessing job market trends [6] - Federal Reserve's Bostic will participate in an event, potentially providing insights into monetary policy [7] - The final services PMI for May from S&P Global in the US will be released, further informing on the services sector [8] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, impacting monetary policy and economic outlook [9] - The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for May will be published, which is a key indicator of economic activity [10] - The EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 30 will be released, affecting energy market dynamics [11] - The Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book on economic conditions, offering qualitative insights into the economy [12]

Core Viewpoint - Economists suggest that the revised GDP data for Japan, set to be released next week, may confirm an economic contraction in the first quarter of 2025 [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - Preliminary data released in mid-May indicated that Japan's actual GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.7% for the January-March quarter [1] - Economists from Norinchukin Research Institute predict that the economy may experience a second consecutive quarter of contraction from April to June due to stagnant wage growth not keeping pace with rising food prices, including rice [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Investment - Consumer spending is expected to remain sluggish, influenced by ongoing inflationary pressures on essential goods [1] - The anticipated continuation of tariffs imposed by former President Trump is expected to exert pressure on exports and capital investment [1]