投资策略 | 定期报告 海外压力仍在，聚焦安全主线 策略周度思考 20260327 研究结论 风险提示 市场表现不及预期、风险定价可能不充分、产业发展不及预期、模型设定风险。 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 28 日 张陈 执业证书编号：S0860526010004 zhangchen2@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 如何构造"效率-安全"的二维分析框架： 策略周度思考 20260322 2026-03-22 如何计算大宗商品隐含地缘风险溢价：策 略周度思考 20260313 2026-03-13 全 球 滞 胀 预 期 升 温 ： 策 略 周 度 思 考 20260307 2026-03-07 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 策略周度思考—海外压力仍在，聚焦安全主线 ⚫ 1、本周中东局势出现反复，油价、全球权益市场随之大幅波动，然而美债利率持续 稳定上行。这意味着市场正在对油价中枢提升、流动性偏紧的环境进行定价，这将 对全球风险偏好形成持续压制。流动性偏紧、风 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that A-shares demonstrated resilience with a rebound after initial declines, driven by positive signals from the Hong Kong market and increased attractiveness of RMB assets [1][8][10] - The report highlights two positive signals: the rebound of the Hong Kong market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, and the enhanced appeal of RMB assets due to China's strong economic resilience amid global geopolitical tensions [1][8][10] - The overall market sentiment is described as average, with a trading volume of 23,253 billion yuan across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating a mixed performance among the major indices [5][6] Group 2 - The report suggests a mid-term slow bull market trend despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of timing in market operations [2][9] - Specific investment opportunities are identified, including focusing on high-quality oil and chemical stocks with stable dividends and strong earnings certainty, as well as technology growth stocks less affected by oil price fluctuations [2][9] - The report anticipates a return to the "performance is king" logic as annual and quarterly reports are set to be disclosed, indicating a potential focus on stocks that exceed earnings expectations [2][9]

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival, with a focus on individual stock plays and structural rotations, suggesting that opportunities will arise from quick stock trading and sector rotations rather than a clear trend [1][13][14] - The market is expected to exhibit a "seek stability before the festival, rebound after" rhythm, with defensive sectors like consumption and dividend stocks likely to attract attention before the holiday, while post-holiday focus may shift to small-cap growth stocks and sectors with clear industrial catalysts [1][13][14] Market Overview - Last Friday, the three major indices in the A-share market opened lower but rebounded to close in the green during the morning session, only to fall back in the afternoon, continuing the recent adjustment trend [4][5] - The chemical, battery, and mining sectors showed strength, while consumer and AI-related stocks experienced a collective pullback, indicating a structural rotation in the market [1][4][13] Sector Performance - The report highlights that cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals have been active, driven by ongoing domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and improving economic supply-demand dynamics [7][8] - The new energy sector, particularly battery and photovoltaic stocks, has shown resilience, supported by global trends towards carbon neutrality and domestic policy reforms aimed at reducing competition in these fields [8][9] - Consumer stocks have also been active, with government policies aimed at stimulating consumption creating structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors catering to demographic trends and service consumption upgrades [10][11] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to balance stability and flexibility in their strategies, focusing on consumption and dividend stocks before the festival while preparing for potential growth opportunities post-festival [2][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in the current volatile market, suggesting that investors should be ready to adapt to changing market rhythms [2][14]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a downturn due to multiple negative factors, with a notable decline in trading volume and a cautious sentiment among investors as the Spring Festival approaches [2][9] - On the previous Monday, all three major indices fell over 1%, with the precious metals and non-ferrous metals sectors leading the decline, while sectors like ultra-high voltage and liquor showed resilience [5][6] Key Drivers of Market Movement - The recent drop in the market can be traced back to significant fluctuations in the international precious metals market, which affected the commodity market and subsequently impacted related A-share sectors [2][9] - The appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a reassessment of global liquidity policies, tightening market liquidity further due to increased margin requirements on futures contracts [2][9] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, particularly in the liquor sector, have shown activity as the government emphasizes domestic demand, with policies aimed at stimulating consumption since 2025 [7] - The ultra-high voltage sector has seen gains, driven by the increasing demand for high-power, stable electricity supply in the context of the global AI computing infrastructure boom [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to remain patient and wait for market sentiment to stabilize, liquidity to improve, and clear positive fundamentals to emerge before increasing their investment positions [3][9] - The report highlights three key investment directions in the consumer sector: structural opportunities aligned with demographic trends, service consumption upgrades, and safety-focused investments in agriculture and related sectors [7]

Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of sector rotation in the A-share market, highlighting the rebound of indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300, and suggests focusing on undervalued sectors like real estate, rare earths, and chemicals for potential investment opportunities [1][8][10] - The report notes a dual logic behind the current market rotation: the natural recovery potential of underperforming sectors and the need for previously strong sectors to consolidate after significant gains [1][9] Market Overview - On Thursday, the A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite index fluctuating, while sectors like precious metals, cultural media, and real estate saw gains, contrasting with the semiconductor sector which faced adjustments [4][5] - The overall market sentiment was subdued, with a notable decrease in individual stock performance, leading to a situation where investors are "earning indices but not profits" [2][9] Sector Analysis - The consumer sector, particularly alcohol and food and beverage stocks, is experiencing upward momentum, driven by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and shifting focus towards domestic demand [6][7] - The precious metals sector has shown strong performance, attributed to factors such as the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, geopolitical tensions, and increased demand from central banks [7][8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities within low-recovery sectors like real estate and alcohol, while maintaining caution regarding high valuation sectors such as precious metals and AI applications [2][9] - The report suggests a careful approach to trading, emphasizing the importance of managing positions and timing in response to market fluctuations [2][9]