本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者周梦婷 北京报道 餐饮企业面临的挑战继续，8月25日海底捞发布中报显示，2025年上半年，其营收净利润双双下滑。与 此同时，九毛九、呷哺呷哺、全聚德、西安饮食等上市餐企要么营收净利润双降、要么尚处亏损之中， 而以平价著称的小菜园、绿茶集团则表现较为稳健，营收净利润双双上涨。 2023年，随着疫情结束，餐饮市场曾迎来一轮短暂的复苏，"报复性消费"一度带来行业回暖。然而随着 消费热情逐渐平缓，近两年消费逻辑发生显著转变，平价消费趋势兴起，整个餐饮市场面临严峻挑战。 面对如此严峻的市场环境，"海底捞们"又将做出怎样的选择？ 翻台率、同店销售额皆承压 今年上半年，在餐饮上市企业中，海底捞、九毛九、呷哺呷哺、全聚德、西安饮食等餐饮企业集体业绩 承压。根据半年报，2025年上半年，海底捞、九毛九、全聚德、西安饮食皆是营收净利润双降，其中海 底捞收入为207亿元，同比减少3.7%；净利润为17.6亿元，同比减少13.7%；九毛九收入为27.5亿元，同 比减少10.1%；净利润为6069.1万元，同比减少16%。根据业绩预告，今年上半年，呷哺呷哺预计收入 为19亿元，同比减少约1 ...

餐饮企业面临的挑战继续，8月25日海底捞发布中报显示，2025年上半年，其营收净利润双双下滑。与 此同时，九毛九、呷哺呷哺、全聚德、西安饮食等上市餐企要么营收净利润双降、要么尚处亏损之中， 而以平价著称的小菜园、绿茶集团则表现较为稳健，营收净利润双双上涨。 2023年，随着疫情结束，餐饮市场曾迎来一轮短暂的复苏，"报复性消费"一度带来行业回暖。然而随着 消费热情逐渐平缓，近两年消费逻辑发生显著转变，平价消费趋势兴起，整个餐饮市场面临严峻挑战。 面对如此严峻的市场环境，"海底捞们"又将做出怎样的选择？ 翻台率、同店销售额皆承压 今年上半年，在餐饮上市企业中，海底捞、九毛九、呷哺呷哺、全聚德、西安饮食等餐饮企业集体业绩 承压。根据半年报，2025年上半年，海底捞、九毛九、全聚德、西安饮食皆是营收净利润双降，其中海 底捞收入为207亿元，同比减少3.7%；净利润为17.6亿元，同比减少13.7%；九毛九收入为27.5亿元，同 比减少10.1%；净利润为6069.1万元，同比减少16%。根据业绩预告，今年上半年，呷哺呷哺预计收入 为19亿元，同比减少约18.9%；预计净亏损在0.8亿元至1.0亿元之间，同时西安饮食同 ...

Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring two key variables: the performance of the brokerage sector and trading volume, which should remain above 2 trillion to maintain market strength [2][10] - The overall market trend remains positive, supported by macroeconomic recovery and favorable policies, despite potential short-term volatility [4][10] Market Overview - On Wednesday, the market experienced fluctuations, with major indices initially declining before rebounding, leading to a V-shaped recovery, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high [1][9] - The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion for the sixth consecutive day, indicating strong market activity, although there was a decrease of 300 billion from the peak on Monday [1][9] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed significant gains, with a long-term positive outlook supported by national policy and increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing [6][7] - Consumer sectors, particularly liquor and food, also saw upward movement, driven by domestic consumption recovery and supportive policies [7][8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a rational and cautious approach, focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals and good technical patterns while being wary of overvalued stocks [2][10] - Attention should be directed towards undervalued sectors with earnings support, maintaining flexibility in trading strategies [10]

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs but failing to maintain those gains, indicating a need for time and space to digest recent movements [3][4][5] - The market sentiment is cautious, with a notable divergence between indices, particularly a stronger Shanghai index compared to weaker Shenzhen and ChiNext indices, reflecting internal market discrepancies [4][20] - Trading volume has decreased, with a total turnover of approximately 1.7 trillion, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm for chasing higher prices, which may hinder the ability to initiate a new upward trend [4][20] Sector Performance - Traditional sectors such as cement, engineering machinery, and hydropower have shown strong rebounds, while AI application sectors have collectively declined, negatively impacting market sentiment [3][19] - The military industry has seen significant gains, with a notable increase in stock prices, supported by government policies and geopolitical tensions that may act as catalysts for further growth [11][12] - The robotics sector has also experienced substantial growth, with a 60% increase in related stocks since early January, although a recent pullback suggests caution is warranted [12] - Precious metals have risen due to factors such as the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and increased geopolitical tensions, which have driven demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [14] - The semiconductor sector remains a focal point for investment, with expectations of continued growth driven by government support and rising global demand for AI and high-performance computing [16] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with high certainty in performance and reasonable valuations, particularly those benefiting from policy support or industry trends [5][21] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with structural opportunities, such as semiconductors, AI, and healthcare, while being cautious of stocks that have risen significantly without strong fundamental backing [5][21] - The outlook for the A-share market suggests a "slow bull" trend, with structural opportunities requiring enhanced stock-picking skills and timing [5][21]

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing a consolidation around the 3600-point level, with structural opportunities remaining abundant despite some divergence in index performance [2][11] - The market showed resilience with a rebound in the afternoon session after a brief drop, indicating strong market support and a lack of panic selling [3][12] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index remains above the 3600-point mark, with short-term moving averages in a bullish arrangement, suggesting that the upward trend is still intact [3][12] - The market is expected to face significant resistance at the previous high of 3674 points, which is a psychological and technical barrier with many trapped positions and cautious funds [12] Sector Performance - The shipbuilding sector saw significant gains due to a merger approval that eliminates competition between two listed companies, highlighting China's competitive advantages in shipbuilding [7] - Consumer stocks, particularly in tourism, food and beverage, and dairy, are gaining strength, driven by domestic consumption recovery and supportive policies [8] - Agricultural stocks, including aquaculture and dairy, are also performing well, benefiting from the emphasis on domestic circulation and food security [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to control their positions and avoid chasing high-flying stocks, focusing instead on sectors that are lagging behind [4][11] - Quality growth stocks and blue-chip companies should be considered for accumulation during market pullbacks [4][12] - The market is anticipated to exhibit a "slow bull" pattern in the medium term, driven by favorable tariff negotiations and improved liquidity conditions [4][12]

Core Viewpoint - SAIZERIYA, a Japanese Italian restaurant chain, is significantly increasing its investment in the Chinese market, establishing new subsidiaries and expanding its presence in various cities, particularly in Central China [4][5][6]. Group 1: Company Expansion - SAIZERIYA announced the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary in Wuhan with a registered capital of 3 billion yen (approximately 147 million yuan) to manage its restaurants in the city [4]. - The company is also setting up a new parent company in China, with a registered capital of about 300 million yen (approximately 15 million yuan), aimed at managing all SAIZERIYA outlets in China [4]. - As of now, SAIZERIYA has nearly 500 stores in China, with a significant concentration in Guangdong, where the Guangzhou branch manages 222 restaurants [6][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, SAIZERIYA reported a sales revenue of 188.34 billion yen (approximately 9.09 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, with a net profit of 7.78 billion yen (approximately 376 million yuan), up 50.4% [9]. - The Asian segment, primarily driven by the Chinese market, generated sales of 63.06 billion yen (approximately 3.05 billion yuan), reflecting a 10.5% increase and accounting for over 30% of SAIZERIYA's total revenue [9]. Group 3: Market Strategy - SAIZERIYA is aggressively expanding into lower-tier cities, having opened its first stores in places like Zhaoqing and Jiangyin this year, and aims to penetrate the Central China market with the new Wuhan subsidiary [13]. - The company plans to invest approximately 30 million USD (about 215 million yuan) in a new factory in Guangzhou to support its expansion, with the goal of increasing its store count to 1,000 in China [15]. - Despite the expansion, SAIZERIYA has faced challenges in profitability, with a 5.4% decline in operating profit for the Asian segment, indicating that the push for growth may be impacting margins [15]. Group 4: Pricing Strategy - SAIZERIYA has begun to increase menu prices after previously stating it would not do so, with price hikes of 1-2 yuan on various dishes due to rising raw material costs [16]. - Specific price increases include the garlic chicken bacon cheese baked rice, which rose from 18 yuan to 19 yuan, and the truffle chicken cheese baked rice, which increased from 20 yuan to 21 yuan [16].

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 5 月 LPR 下调 10 个基点，震荡轮动格局或将延续 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 5 月 20 日，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）迎来年内首次下调，1 年期 LPR 和 5 年期以上 LPR 均下调 10 个基点。同时，多家国有大行及股份行下调存款利率， 活期、定期及通知存款利率全面调降。政策进一步释放流动性宽松信号，降低存 量房贷利率以刺激消费和经济复苏，对 A 股形成利好。 周二沪深三大指数集体上涨，盘面上看，受益于 618 大促预期及消费政策支 持，美容护理、零售连锁表现活跃。而消费升级趋势下，宠物食品、IP 衍生品等 细分赛道受资金追捧，反映市场对新兴消费需求的挖掘。 不过，尽管周二市场集体上攻，但高位股方向出现分歧，后市震荡轮动格局 或将延续：首先，高位股分歧加大。部分前期强势股出现大幅回调；其次，技术 面仍有承压。3400 点作为前期密集成交区，积累了不少套牢盘 ...

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