冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究报告 --2026年3月宏观经济月度报告 发布日期：2026年3月2日 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2月，全球资本市场动荡延续，对于AI投资的分歧，特朗普关税风波再起，美伊从谈判到战争的爆发与加剧，春节假期中国机器人的崛起， 德国总理默茨的率团访华，吸引全球投资者瞩目的同时也扰动着资产价格。2月整体来看，波动率指数VIX剧烈波动后收涨，金银先抑后扬震荡收 涨；全球主要股市涨跌互现，日韩股指涨幅居前中美股市双双回落，BDI小跌；美元波动反弹，非美货币小幅走贬澳元强势上涨；大宗商品多数 收涨，豆系强势带动农产品价格回升，有色商品延续强势但内部出现分化。国内，宏观数据空窗期中，PMI与金融数据双双表现疲弱，政策方面 保持定力，市场在弱现实和弱预期风格中震荡回调。春节假期，国内消费出行和地产销售均表现得差强人意，但人民币汇率的强势则形成一定的 托底，投资者开始将目光转向3月初的两会。 2月，国内期货市场呈现出弱现实弱预期的风格特征，风险资产在大幅波动中回调分化，商品的 ...

威胜信息（688100.SH） 营收净利稳定增长，通信网关驱动增长，AI 布局显效 TMT 及中小盘/通信 事件：2 月 27 日，公司发布《2025 年年度报告》，公司实现营业收入 29.78 亿元，同比上升 8.48%；归属上市公司股东的净利润 6.66 亿元，同比上升 5.64%； 归属上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 6.46 亿元，同比上升 5.94%。 公司实现 EPS（基本）1.36 元。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：43.59 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 492 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 492 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 21.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 21.4 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 7.2 | | ROE（TTM） | 18.8 | | 资产负债率 | 37.8% | | 主要股东 | 威胜集团有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 37.34% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 4 20 18 相对表现 3 13 -1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，顶点软件（603383.SH）2月25日在投资者互动平台表示，公司A5系统已落地多家券商， 行业示范效应持续增强。随着金融信创的深入推进，公司对今年业务拓展及订单转化持积极预期。公司 AI相关产品已在财富管理、智慧运营等场景实现落地应用，相关收入已纳入公司整体业务收入核算， 目前暂无单独披露的营收占比。公司深耕金融科技多年，核心技术与行业壁垒坚实，经营基本面正常。 大股东减持为其自身资金安排，已按规定履行信息披露义务，公司不存在您所提及的被 AI 颠覆的风 险。未来公司将继续聚焦主业发展，持续强化技术创新与价值创造，力争以更好的经营业绩回报广大投 资者。 ...

格隆汇2月25日丨顶点软件(603383.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，公司A5系统已落地多家券商，行业示范 效应持续增强。随着金融信创的深入推进，公司对今年业务拓展及订单转化持积极预期。公司AI相关 产品已在财富管理、智慧运营等场景实现落地应用，相关收入已纳入公司整体业务收入核算，目前暂无 单独披露的营收占比。公司深耕金融科技多年，核心技术与行业壁垒坚实，经营基本面正常。 ...

格隆汇2月25日丨顶点软件(603383.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，公司A5系统已落地多家券商，行业示范 效应持续增强。随着金融信创的深入推进，公司对今年业务拓展及订单转化持积极预期。公司AI相关 产品已在财富管理、智慧运营等场景实现落地应用，相关收入已纳入公司整体业务收入核算，目前暂无 单独披露的营收占比。公司深耕金融科技多年，核心技术与行业壁垒坚实，经营基本面正常。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yunxuetang has not disclosed any significant events recently, with updates based on publicly available information for the second half of 2025 and early 2026 [1] Stock Performance - On January 5, 2026, Yunxuetang's stock price increased by 5.50%, reaching $0.920 per share, following significant fluctuations in December 2025 [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 152.9 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%. The gross margin improved to 65.1%, and the adjusted net loss narrowed by 15.0% year-on-year. As of June 30, 2025, the total cash and short-term investments amounted to 235.7 million RMB [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company's 2025 strategy focuses on large enterprise clients and AI solutions, aiming to enhance operational efficiency through cost optimization and product improvements. Monthly recurring revenue from AI-related products has reached 500,000 RMB [4]

Core Insights - Databricks announced a $5 billion equity financing round at a valuation of $134 billion, along with an additional $2 billion in debt financing [1] - The company reported an annualized revenue exceeding $5.4 billion for the fiscal year ending in January, representing a 65% year-over-year growth, and achieved positive free cash flow over the past year [1] - Databricks' AI-related products have reached an annualized revenue of $1.4 billion, with growth accelerating beyond previous expectations of 50% [1] - The CEO indicated that the company is prepared for an IPO when the timing is right, noting strong market interest in the recent funding round [1] - Major investors in this financing round include Goldman Sachs, GladeBrook Capital, Morgan Stanley, Neuberger Berman, and Qatar Investment Authority, with JPMorgan leading the debt financing [1] - Databricks currently holds several billion dollars in cash [1]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: 嘉元科技 (Jia Yuan Technology) - **Industry**: Lithium metal anodes and copper foil production Key Points and Arguments 1. **Performance Forecast**: Jia Yuan Technology expects a revenue of 95 to 97.5 million with a profit of 50 to 65 million, achieving its annual target of 90 to 100 thousand tons of copper production [4][5][6] 2. **Profit Increase**: The company reported an increase in profit of over 10 million compared to the third quarter, despite provisions for bad debts due to rising copper prices and a significant impairment loss from a failed investment [4][5][6] 3. **Price Stability**: In 2025, the company maintained stable prices for its products, with no significant increases expected in Q1 and Q2, although a price increase is anticipated in Q2 [8][9] 4. **Product Mix Improvement**: The proportion of high-strength products has increased to over 50%, contributing positively to overall pricing and profit margins [10][11] 5. **Production Capacity**: By the end of 2025, the company aims to achieve a production capacity of 135,000 tons, with potential for an additional 35,000 tons from ongoing expansions [17][18] 6. **Lithium Metal Anode Development**: The company is transitioning from copper foil production to lithium metal anode production, which is seen as a critical future growth area [24][25] 7. **Market Demand**: The demand for lithium metal anodes is expected to grow, with initial small-scale deliveries already being made to major clients [26][30] 8. **Pricing Strategy**: The pricing for lithium metal anodes is expected to be significantly higher than copper foil, with potential margins being several times greater [34][39] 9. **AI Business Growth**: The AI segment is projected to double its revenue in 2025 compared to 2024, with a target profit margin of around 20% [42][43] 10. **Customer Base Expansion**: The company is focusing on increasing its overseas customer base, particularly in Europe, with expectations of significant growth in sales volume [46][49] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Impairment Losses**: The company faced significant impairment losses due to a failed investment in a hydrogen cutting tool company, impacting quarterly profits [5][6] 2. **Technological Development**: The company is exploring various production methods for lithium metal anodes, including internal development and partnerships with external teams [27][31] 3. **Quality Control**: Customer feedback emphasizes the importance of thickness uniformity and surface quality for lithium metal anodes, which are critical for meeting client specifications [41] 4. **Future Outlook**: The company aims to achieve a production target of 100 tons for lithium metal anodes in the near term, with a long-term goal of expanding capacity significantly [42][56] 5. **Competitive Landscape**: The company expresses confidence in its competitive position, anticipating that it could become a market leader with the successful implementation of its growth strategies [68]

台湾为什么看起来不太怕呢？毕竟大陆的经济和军事早已是全球前二，按照购买力平价计算的GDP更是比美国高出30%，九三阅兵之后，我们的部分军事也 领先于美国，背后的原因有信息茧房的缘故，但是也有经济方面的原因，台湾当前经济太好了。 台湾今年的经济形势有多好？前三季度GDP同比增长7.06%，其中二季度更是大幅增长8.01%，这个经济表现不说冠绝全球，那也是全球排名前几的存在， 经济上的优异表现，也正在成为台独们的底气。 如果以美元GDP来衡量，台湾今年的经济表现更强，前三季度台湾的GDP是6585亿美元，同比大幅增长12.3%，这个表现太亮眼了，人均GDP有望达到3.8万 美元，超过韩国的的3.6万和日本的3.5万，成为东亚地区人均GDP最高的经济体。 台湾的经济表现这么好，主要依赖于半导体产业，AI相关产品出口激增，拉动前三季度净出口增长5.6%，固定资本形成增长5.9%。台积电前三季度的营收 为2.76万亿新台币，同比大幅增长36%，净利润更是大幅增长51%。 半导体产业如今是台湾的支柱产业，当前人工智能快速发展，尤其是以美国为首的经济体，在举全国之力发展人工智能，台湾作为全球芯片制造基地，受益 颇多，而这一 ...

Core Insights - The ASEAN+3 region's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been raised to 4.3%, while the 2026 forecast is adjusted down to 4.0%, both up by 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates [1] - The upward revision is attributed to milder-than-expected tariff impacts, resilient technology exports, strong investment in the ASEAN region, and supportive macroeconomic policies [1] - AMRO's Chief Economist highlighted the region's resilience in facing global uncertainties, driven by strong demand for technology and foreign direct investment in emerging sectors [1] Economic Resilience - Internal demand is expected to continue supporting overall growth in the second half of 2025, with stable private consumption due to favorable labor market conditions and low inflation [3] - Investment remains robust, particularly in advanced electronics, electric vehicles, and digital services, driven by strong foreign direct investment commitments [3] - Despite tariff challenges, technology exports are performing well, with semiconductor exports in the ASEAN+3 region expected to grow significantly, reflecting strong demand in AI applications and cloud infrastructure [3] Financial Market Dynamics - Regional stock markets are buoyed by optimism in AI-related sectors, despite concerns over U.S. tariff policies [4] - Currency stability is observed, although some economies face currency depreciation due to expanded fiscal stimulus measures, leading to cautious investor sentiment [5] - Ongoing debates exist regarding potential overvaluation in the stock market, particularly in AI stocks, which could impact future investment and export growth if market corrections occur [5] Risks and Uncertainties - The report identifies aggressive protectionist policies as a high-probability, high-impact short-term risk, with uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies and potential tariff expansions [6] - A significant decline in technology demand is noted as a medium-probability but high-impact risk, which could adversely affect regional exports and investment flows [6] - Despite the potential for major impacts from a downturn in technology demand, the likelihood of a severe market correction is currently considered low, with expectations for sustained growth in the sector [6]