11月25日每经讯 11月25日，阿里巴巴集团发布2026财年第二季度财报，集团收入2477.95亿元，剔除已 出售业务影响，收入同比增长15%。这一季度，阿里云收入继续加速增长34%，AI相关产品收入连续9 个季度实现三位数增长。此外，本季度，电商客户管理收入（CMR）同比增长10%，即时零售业务收 入同比增长60%。 ...

蚂蚁集团季度利润同比增长 10.3%，达 83.7 亿元人民币。 IT之家 11 月 25 日消息，阿里巴巴公布第二季度财报，财报显示阿里巴巴第二季度营收 2,478.0 亿元人 民币，同比增长 4.8%，预估 2,452 亿元人民币；第二季度调整后每 ADS 收益 4.36 元人民币，预估 6.34 元人民币；第二季度中国电商事业集团收入 1,325.8 亿元人民币；调整后净利润 103.5 亿元人民币，预 估 168 亿元人民币。 阿里巴巴表示，AI + 云与消费两大核心业务本季度持续实现强劲增长。第二季度云智能集团收入 398.2 亿元人民币，同比增长 34%，预估 379.9 亿元人民币。AI 相关产品收入连续 9 个季度实现三位数同比 增长。 IT之家注意到，阿里巴巴美股盘前涨 3%。 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Financial Metrics - The CDS prices of large tech companies are significantly lower than the overall level of high-yield bonds, with Oracle at 118.8 basis points compared to a basket of high-yield bonds at 341.6 basis points[4] - The total debt to EBITDA ratio for S&P 500 companies has dropped to 3.6 times, the lowest level in 30 years, compared to 5.1 times for MSCI World Index constituents[7] - The capital expenditure to free cash flow ratio for S&P 500 companies is at 0.7, below the global average of 0.8, indicating conservative spending[10] Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - Part-time employment has rebounded, potentially boosting U.S. employment data in the second half of the year, with voluntary part-time workers reaching 22.89 million, a five-month high[16] - Non-farm employment growth in the first half of the year was primarily driven by full-time jobs, while the second half may see a shift towards part-time jobs[16] Group 3: Risk and Investment Insights - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index is at 4.6%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, suggesting potential for valuation uplift[18] - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds is at 27 basis points, 57 basis points higher than in December 2016, indicating improved returns[21] - The copper-gold price ratio has decreased to 2.7, while the offshore RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.1, signaling diverging trends in demand and currency valuation[26]

海外宏观策略：降息预期反复，美国股跌债涨 上周美联储降息预期一度收敛，后边际转松。 一是部分美联储官员持续释放鹰派信号。二是受到政府停摆影 响，10月非农数据不再公布，而11月数据将在12月议息会议后才会披露，这意味着美联储在2025年最后一次议 息会议前，不再有官方就业数据可参考，导致降息概率大幅下降。随后美联储副主席兼纽约联储主席威廉姆斯 释放鸽派信号，降息预期再度上升，12月降息概率回升至70%。11月21日，威廉姆斯表示近期仍然存在降息空 间，劳动力市场仍然面临下行风险。威廉姆斯的态度更可能代表美联储中央票委立场，与地方票委的密集鹰派 表态形成鲜明对比。由于中央票委拥有8个席位，地方票委仅拥有4个席位，美联储政策立场仍然偏向鸽派。 美国劳工部滞后公布9月就业数据，下行压力仍然存在。 尽管新增就业显著反弹，达到11.9万人，结束了5月以 来的低迷走势，但失业率仍在缓步上行，达到4.4%，再创本轮周期新高。从高频数据看，W46首次申领失业 金人数为22.0万，基本符合季节性水平。 在降息预期反复的背景下，美股回调，美元反弹并再度站上100整数关口，美债利率小幅回落，黄金下跌，人 民币小幅贬值。 美股方面， ...

首先我们要明确，上周五的回调，并非仅仅是A股，而是全球都在调整，和老美关系密切的日韩，更是跌幅夸张，韩国的综指跌幅超过4%。 最近大A又开始给大家上难度了，尤其是上周五，全球大跌，A股也狠狠回调了一波。 很多人有焦虑上了，"行情是不是结束了"、"熊市又要来了"？ 下面，海星君就和大家一起聊聊最新的行情吧~ | く 気 | 亚太指数 () | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨幅↑ | 污长跌 | | 韩国 KOSPI200 | 540.36 | -4.23% | -23.84 | | KOSPI200 | | | | | 韩国 KOSPI | 3853.26 | -3.79% | -151.59 | | KS11 | | | | | 台湾加权 | 26434.94 | -3.61% | -991.42 | | TWII | | | | | 恒生科技指数 | 5402.26 | -3.09% | -172.33 | | HSTECH | | | | | 日经 225 | 48625.88 | -2.40% | -1198.06 | | N225 | | | ...

Market Performance - U.S. stock markets faced significant pressure last week, with the Dow Jones down 1.91%, S&P 500 down 1.95%, and Nasdaq down 2.74% [1] - The S&P and Nasdaq indices fell approximately 5.5% and 8.5% from recent peaks, respectively, indicating bearish short-term signals [1] - Implied volatility for one month reached a monthly high, reflecting widespread market anxiety [1] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced even worse conditions, with Bitcoin dropping to around $83,000, a 35% decline from its historical peak of $126,000 [1] - Bitcoin's price fell 18% last week, marking the strongest weekly decline since mid-November 2022 [1] - November is expected to record the worst monthly performance since the market correction in June 2022 [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The October meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve revealed intense internal debates regarding the possibility of a rate cut in December [2] - Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data for September complicated the outlook, with futures traders raising the probability of a December rate cut to over 70%, nearly doubling from below 40% after the non-farm data [2] - The cancellation of the October employment report and the delay of the October CPI report may impact the Fed's decision-making process ahead of the December meeting [2] AI Stock Concerns - Recent market declines were partly driven by concerns over high valuations of AI stocks, leading to skepticism about AI investment returns [2] - Nvidia's strong earnings report, which exceeded market expectations for Q3 revenue and Q4 sales, initially boosted market sentiment [2] - However, the market experienced a severe intraday reversal, resulting in over $2.7 trillion in market value evaporating, with the VIX volatility index rising above 26 for the first time since April [2] Upcoming Economic Data - The upcoming week is crucial for U.S. economic data due to the Thanksgiving holiday, with key reports expected in the first three days [3] - Market attention is focused on the September Producer Price Index (PPI) and consumer confidence index, as well as initial jobless claims data on Wednesday [3] - The significance of the weekly initial jobless claims data is heightened due to the absence of a complete October non-farm employment report [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that after the favorable news has been fully priced in, the market is experiencing a weak bullish phase, leading to profit-taking concerns and subsequent global asset adjustments [4][10] - Recent market movements show significant declines in major indices, with the S&P and Nasdaq dropping 1.6% and 2.2% respectively, while A-shares and Asian markets also faced pressure [4][10] - The report highlights that despite positive catalysts such as Nvidia's earnings and strong non-farm payroll data, bearish sentiments persist, particularly regarding technology stocks and valuation concerns [4][10] Market Overview - The report notes that both the US and Chinese markets have entered a period of observation and adjustment, with a focus on profit-taking and healthy corrections [5][11] - It emphasizes that after sustained increases, both markets require a period of rest to better prepare for the next upward movement, with A-shares particularly positioned for future gains based on upcoming earnings [5][11] - The report identifies that the banking and dividend sectors have shown significant excess returns, with state-owned banks and dividend stocks outperforming by 10.0%, 8.7%, 6.5%, and 3.7% respectively since November [5][12] Future Outlook - The long-term trends for both US and Chinese stock markets, including technology sectors, remain unchanged, with several factors supporting this view [6][13] - For A-shares, the report outlines four key aspects: supportive policy towards capital markets, a weak recovery trend, continued liquidity improvements, and strong top-level policy support for the technology sector [6][13] - The report anticipates potential scenarios for A-shares in December, including unexpected policy support or structural adjustments leading to a market rally, with a focus on technology growth stocks [7][14]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 11 月 21 日 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 薛威 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 迟到的非农，有限的指引 ——2025 年 9 月美国就业数据点评 资格编号：S0120523080002 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 风险提示：中美博弈烈度超预期；地缘政治危机超预期；全球经济承压超预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 事件：美国劳工统计局公布 9 月就业数据。9 月新增非农 11.9 万人，大幅超出预 期值 5.1 万人，主要受医疗保健、食品服务等行业的拉动；8 月份新增非农从 2.2 万人下修至-0.4 万人；失业率上行至 4.4%；小 ...

由于市值龙头股英伟达公司财报未能持续提振市场人气，纽约股市三大股指20日由涨转跌，收盘时三大 股指均明显走低，遭遇少见的大幅反转行情。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌386.51点，收于45752.26点，跌幅为0.84%；标 准普尔500种股票指数下跌103.40点，收于6538.76点，跌幅为1.56%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌486.18点， 收于22078.05点，跌幅为2.15%。 标普500指数11大板块10跌1涨。科技板块和非必需消费品板块分别以2.66%和1.73%跌幅领跌，仅必需 消费品板块上涨1.11%。 英伟达19日盘后发布的财报显示，在截至10月26日的本财年第三季度，该公司营业收入和净利润均显著 增长，利润率改善。英伟达还对本财年第四季度业绩给出乐观预期。财报公布后，英伟达股价在19日盘 后交易中出现超5%的涨幅。不过，20日英伟达股价在涨至每股196美元后回落，收盘时下跌超3%。 分析人士指出，美国多家科技巨头围绕AI推出总规模达数万亿美元的资本开支，引发投资者质疑，市 场对AI领域出现泡沫的担忧刺激相关股票明显回调。 与此同时，因美国联邦政府"停摆"而延迟发布的9月 ...

据新华社纽约11月20日电 由于市值龙头股英伟达公司财报未能持续提振市场人气，纽约股市三大股指 20日由涨转跌，收盘时三大股指均明显走低，遭遇少见的大幅反转行情。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌386.51点，收于45752.26点，跌幅为0.84%；标 准普尔500种股票指数下跌103.40点，收于6538.76点，跌幅为1.56%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌486.18点， 收于22078.05点，跌幅为2.15%。 标普500指数11大板块10跌1涨。科技板块和非必需消费品板块分别以2.66%和1.73%跌幅领跌，仅必需 消费品板块上涨1.11%。 与此同时，因美国联邦政府"停摆"而延迟发布的9月就业数据当日早间出炉。美国劳工部数据显示，9月 美国失业率升至4.4%，为2021年11月以来最高水平。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示，截至当日17时45分，市场认为美联储在12月货币政策会议上降 息25个基点的概率从前一日的30.1%升至39.5%，但仍明显低于一周前的50.1%和一个月前的98.8%。市 场对美联储12月继续降息的预期未能显著升温，进一步打压市场人气。 美联储理事迈克尔·巴 ...