一、马年春节全球资产表现：股指分化，商品市场成最大赢家 （来源：策略优基基） 商品市场 白银领涨，能源走强，避险情绪推动价格攀升 春节期间，商品市场成为全球资本市场的"最大赢家"，尤其是贵金属和能源 板块，涨幅十分显著，与你之前关注的资产涨跌幅数据完全吻合，具体表现如下： —— 贵金属迎来狂欢：伦敦银累计上涨13.9%，创下近年来春节期间的最大涨幅；COMEX白银上涨10.91%，价格突破86美 元/盎司，盘中高点一度达到88.86美元/盎司，最大涨幅达13.98%；伦敦金上涨3.7%，COMEX黄金上涨3.6%，黄金作为传 统的"避险之王"，吸引了大量资金流入，价格稳步攀升。 —— 韩股一骑绝尘：韩国综合指数（KOSPI）累计上涨6.2%，领跑全球主要股指，创下春节期间全球股指的最大涨幅。核 心原因在于，韩国半导体、AI产业链表现强劲，三星电子、SK海力士等科技巨头股价创下新高，叠加外资大幅流入，带动 整个市场情绪升温，推动股指持续上涨。 —— 欧洲股指普遍上涨：法国CAC40指数上涨2.23%，英国富时100指数上涨2.28%，德国DAX指数上涨0.31%，欧洲主要 股指均实现不同程度的上涨。这主要得益于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold has emerged as the strongest asset of the year, with a price increase from below 2800 to over 4300, representing a year-to-date growth of over 50% [2][3]. Group 1: Gold's Role in the Market - Gold plays three roles in the market: as a commodity, currency, and investment [5]. - As a commodity, gold prices are driven by supply and demand dynamics, particularly influenced by central bank purchases and jewelry consumption [7]. - As a currency, gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar index, meaning that a weaker dollar leads to higher gold prices [9][13]. - As an investment, gold's value is compared against other asset classes, and its opportunity cost is considered when evaluating potential returns from other investments [15][16][19]. Group 2: Investment Strategies in Gold - Private equity managers can leverage gold investments through three main strategies: subjective long strategies, macro multi-asset strategies, and CTA strategies [23]. - Subjective long strategies involve managers making investment decisions based on the current market value of gold, often focusing on its currency attributes during periods of weak dollar and low interest rates [25]. - Macro multi-asset strategies view gold as part of a broader asset allocation, using it to hedge against risks in other assets like stocks and bonds [33][37]. - CTA strategies focus on price movements without delving into fundamental analysis, using quantitative models to respond to market trends and relative strength among commodities [45][55]. Group 3: Conclusion on Gold Investment - Gold serves as both an offensive tool based on macroeconomic judgments and a stabilizing asset in a diversified portfolio, as well as a signal in quantitative models [57]. - The ability to identify diverse strategies and utilize flexible trading tools is crucial for successful gold investment [58].

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of a macro multi-asset strategy to navigate through market cycles, focusing on absolute returns and low volatility to meet client demands in the current low-interest and high-volatility environment [1][5]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy and Strategy - The investment philosophy is centered around "absolute returns and low volatility," with a macro perspective guiding asset allocation and selection processes [2][3]. - The strategy employs a dual-driven model of "Beta multi-asset allocation + Alpha return enhancement," focusing on selecting assets with strong macro logic and low correlation [3][6]. - The combination construction process involves systematic models for risk balance and active Alpha positioning based on macro environment assessments [3][4]. Group 2: Principles of Portfolio Construction - Portfolio construction adheres to three main principles: maintaining balanced risk exposure, ensuring high liquidity and transparency in underlying assets, and varying Alpha positioning based on product types [4][7]. - The strategy avoids credit bonds and individual stocks to ensure liquidity and minimize credit risk exposure [4][5]. Group 3: Market Context and Demand - The macro hedge strategy has gained traction in the domestic market, with increasing attention towards macro private equity funds due to their ability to provide stable returns amid market volatility [5][9]. - The current low-interest environment and the demand for low-volatility, stable products create a favorable backdrop for the growth of macro multi-asset strategies [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Potential - The domestic macro multi-asset strategy is viewed as being in a "blue ocean" phase, with potential market space reaching trillions, driven by increasing institutional interest and the need for stable investment products [8][9]. - The anticipated macro environment for 2026 is expected to be expansionary, with opportunities arising from U.S. monetary easing, AI industry growth, and a stable geopolitical landscape [11][12]. Group 5: Risk Management and Adaptation - The strategy emphasizes maintaining a balanced asset allocation while being prepared for unexpected macro events, highlighting the importance of tail risk management [13][14]. - Continuous evaluation of strategy execution and capacity limits is prioritized to ensure investor returns and satisfaction over mere scale expansion [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a macro multi-asset strategy to navigate through market cycles, focusing on absolute returns and low volatility to meet client demands in the current low-interest and high-volatility environment [2][10]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy and Strategy - The investment philosophy is centered around "absolute returns and low volatility," with a focus on risk-balanced macro multi-asset strategies to achieve stable long-term returns [4][6]. - The strategy is built on a dual-driven model of "Beta multi-asset allocation + Alpha return enhancement," which involves selecting assets with strong macro logic and low correlation, constructing a balanced portfolio, and adding active Alpha positions based on macro environment predictions [6][9]. - The combination construction process involves systematic models for risk balance and regular rebalancing, alongside a focus on macroeconomic indicators to express Alpha views [6][7]. Group 2: Market Context and Demand - The macro hedge strategy has gained traction in the domestic market, with increasing attention towards macro private equity funds, particularly in a low-interest environment where low-volatility products are scarce [8][12]. - The current economic cycle and low-interest rates create a strong demand for macro multi-asset strategies, which can fill the gap left by declining yields in traditional high-yield, low-volatility assets [13][12]. - The article notes that the domestic macro multi-asset strategy is still in a "blue ocean" phase, with potential market space reaching trillions, and the expectation of more large-scale macro private equity firms emerging [11][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Trends - The outlook for 2026 suggests a favorable macro environment for macro strategy products, driven by expected monetary and fiscal expansions in the U.S. and China, as well as ongoing developments in the AI industry [15][16]. - Key investment opportunities are anticipated in risk assets, including technology stocks and commodities, supported by global monetary expansion and the AI revolution [15][16]. - The strategy will maintain a balanced asset allocation while being prepared for tail risk management, emphasizing the need for flexibility in response to unexpected macro events [17].