有分析指出，随着英伟达公布的财报及业绩指引超出预期，过去几周在市场上不断蔓延的"AI泡沫"忧虑 有望缓解，市场对英伟达AI芯片的需求依然旺盛。 英伟达创始人兼CEO黄仁勋在财报中表示，"计算需求正呈指数级增长——AI智能体的转折点已经到 来。企业对智能体的应用正在飞速增长。我们的客户正竞相投资AI计算——这些计算能力是推动AI产 业革命和未来发展的动力源泉。" 来源市场信息 业绩指引方面，英伟达预计2027财年第一季度营收764.4亿美元—795.6亿美元，高于市场预估的727.8亿 美元。 受业绩与业绩指引超预期刺激，英伟达股价在美股盘后交易中直线飙升，一度大涨超4%。 截至周三收盘，英伟达股价在2026年已上涨5%，而纳斯达克指数下跌0.4%。万亿市值俱乐部中今年唯 一同样上涨的另一家公司是苹果，涨幅不到1%。 美东时间周三美股盘后，全球"AI总龙头"英伟达公布了2026财年第四季度及全年财报。 财报显示，英伟达第四财季营收681亿美元，同比增长73%，市场预期为656.84亿美元，上年同期为 393.31亿美元。2026财年全年营收为2159亿美元，同比增长65%，创历史新高。 ...

Group 1 - The core investment theme post-Spring Festival revolves around "price increases" and "revaluation of physical assets," particularly in resource, chemical, and midstream manufacturing sectors, leveraging China's pricing power amid global uncertainties [1][2] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains a key focus, with sub-sectors like computing power, applications, and robotics expected to remain active due to industrial catalysts [1][2] - The recovery of export chains, non-bank financials, and certain consumer and real estate chains are seen as important supplements to market trends under the backdrop of internal and external demand recovery [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities emphasizes that price increases are a core configuration clue for Q1, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy, while also increasing exposure to undervalued insurance and brokerage stocks [2] - Historical data indicates that February and the period around the Spring Festival are strong for market movements, with small-cap stocks showing a 100% probability of rising from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions [3] - Guojin Securities highlights the importance of balancing global physical assets against Chinese assets, recommending commodities like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages like equipment exports and domestic manufacturing [4] Group 3 - Industrial sectors experiencing structural price increases due to supply-demand gaps are primarily in midstream materials and manufacturing, with a focus on chemicals, steel, and high-end manufacturing [5] - The potential for recovery in the export chain is noted, particularly in industries with significant exposure to the U.S. market that will benefit from reduced tariffs [5] - The policy uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade is expected to favor gold as a risk hedge, with market participants anticipating potential shifts in U.S. trade policy [6] Group 4 - Attention is drawn to the post-holiday inventory replenishment in commodities, with a continued positive outlook on technology applications, particularly in semiconductors and AI [7] - Quantum technology is highlighted as a sector receiving dual catalysts from policy and technological advancements, with significant developments in quantum key distribution networks [8] - The AI industry revolution is identified as a key investment theme, focusing on computing power, storage, and applications, with a strong emphasis on the performance of high-growth sectors [9] Group 5 - Localized opportunities are expected in AI applications linked to overseas trends and robotics associated with the Spring Festival, with a cautious approach to market movements anticipated [10] - The current bull market logic remains intact, with a recommendation for investors to maintain confidence despite short-term volatility, focusing on sectors with high securities ratios [11]

2月24日，丙午马年A股将迎来首个交易日。春节假期期间，全球市场平稳运行，国内消费、文旅、出 行数据持续回暖，叠加政策暖风与资金共振，多家头部券商密集发布研报，一致对马年A股持乐观审 慎、结构性慢牛判断，认为市场将从估值驱动转向盈利驱动，科技成长与内需复苏双轮驱动，春季躁动 行情值得期待。 马年"慢牛"行情有望延续 据Wind数据，近十年春节假期后A股首个交易日，上证指数、创业板指上涨概率均达六成，节后"日历 效应"显著。主流券商对马年A股大势判断高度统一，"长牛""慢牛"成共识，整体走势或呈现平稳开局、 震荡上行、前稳后高的趋势。 东吴证券表示，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有 望迎来积极开局。产业趋势层面，机器人、国产大模型在内的科技主线在假期期间持续发酵。后续来 看，两会临近将进一步强化市场维稳预期，白宫官员确认特朗普拟于3月底访华，有助于稳定市场对外 部环境预期。对于节后A股市场表现持乐观判断。 中信证券判断，A股盈利增速将呈现前低后高走势，上半年以估值修复为主，下半年随经济回暖与政策 落地进入业绩兑现阶段。外部环境趋于稳定，内部政策持续发力，市场风险偏 ...

（来源：市场星报） A股三大指数周一集体走强，沪指收复4100点整数关口。截至收盘，沪指涨1.41%，收报4123.09点；深 证成指涨2.17%，收报14208.44点；创业板指涨2.98%，收报3332.77点。沪深京三市成交额达到2.27万亿 元，较上一交易日放量1067亿元。 行业板块几乎全线上扬，文化传媒、光伏设备、玻璃玻纤、互联网服务、通信设备、电子化学品、小金 属、电源设备、半导体板块涨幅居前，仅采掘行业与燃气板块逆市下跌。个股方面，上涨股票数量超过 4600只，近百股涨停。 中金公司最新研报指出，大宗商品是全球资金多元化的受益资产，当前能源、化工等多品种的估值与成 本或已在偏底部区间，尽管短期波动加大，但由AI算力扩张与能源转型驱动的刚性需求，以及部分品 种的结构性供需缺口并未发生实质性变化，中金认为大宗商品的结构行情可能尚未结束。随着短期情绪 释放与交易拥挤度明显下降，相关资源股行情并未结束，历经短期调整后中期有望重拾升势。 天风证券表示，根据经济复苏与市场流动性，可以把投资主线降维为三个方向：1.AI产业革命带来的算 力、存力、电力及应用的科技主线机会；2.内外共振，经济逐步修复，牛市主线 ...

天风证券表示，根据经济复苏与市场流动性，可以把投资主线降维为三个方向：1、AI产业革命带来的 算力、存力、 电力及应用的科技主线机会，2、内外共振，经济逐步修复，牛市主线风格"强者恒强"， 但周期后半段易有所表现，3、赔率思维，即考虑风格轮动、底部反转的可能性。连续三年跑输但第四 年跑赢概率较大的行业有 食品饮料、农林牧渔、社会服务、 医药生物。AI产业趋势的进展取决于 AI应 用端和消费端的突破，重视AI巨头的布局。牛市初期资金更偏好少数高景气赛道，后期资金抱团聚焦 主线，新增资金获利难度提升，而周期股又具备低估值、高贝塔的属性，易随着基本面回暖的深化而发 挥较好的业绩弹性，获得增量资金青睐。 ...

2月5日，A股延续回调态势，双创指数跌幅靠前，市场亏钱效应明显，3719只个股收绿，抛压集中于有色等资源股及通信等科技股，白酒、银行股相对抗 跌。 受访人士指出，今日缩量下跌体现节前避险情绪升温与存量资金高低切换，预计节前A股大概率震荡磨底。当前建议投资者保持中等仓位，保留现金灵活 性，可逢低分批布局白酒板块，不宜急于"抄底"科技、资源股，暂不建议盲目上车券商板块。 量能大幅萎缩 指数跌多涨少，沪指收跌0.64%报4075.92点，创业板指收跌1.55%报3260.28点，深证成指收跌1.44%。沪深300、上证50微跌，科创50跌逾1%，北证50跌 逾2%。 前两日交易量能微降，今日三市成交额缩减3090亿元，降至2.19万亿元。近期杠杆资金热度明显下降，截至2月4日，沪深京两融余额降至2.69万亿元。 市场亏钱效应明显，3719只个股收跌，跌停股23只；1618只个股收涨，涨停股56只。随着交易量缩减，今日成交额超百亿元个股仅9只，多数热门股收 跌，新易盛、紫金矿业跌幅均超4%，蓝色光标、天孚通信跌近6%。贵州茅台收涨1.97%报1555元/股，网宿科技涨逾7%报17.97元/股。 | 代码 | 名称 | ...

2月5日，A股延续回调态势，双创指数跌幅靠前，市场亏钱效应明显，3719只个股收绿，抛压集中于有色等资源股及通信等科技股，白酒、银行股相对抗 跌。 受访人士指出，今日缩量下跌体现节前避险情绪升温与存量资金高低切换，预计节前A股大概率震荡磨底。当前建议投资者保持中等仓位，保留现金灵活 性，可逢低分批布局白酒板块，不宜急于"抄底"科技、资源股，暂不建议盲目上车券商板块。 量能大幅萎缩 指数跌多涨少，沪指收跌0.64%报4075.92点，创业板指收跌1.55%报3260.28点，深证成指收跌1.44%。沪深300、上证50微跌，科创50跌逾1%，北证50跌 逾2%。 前两日交易量能微降，今日三市成交额缩减3090亿元，降至2.19万亿元。近期杠杆资金热度明显下降，截至2月4日，沪深京两融余额降至2.69万亿元。 市场亏钱效应明显，3719只个股收跌，跌停股23只；1618只个股收涨，涨停股56只。随着交易量缩减，今日成交额超百亿元个股仅9只，多数热门股收 跌，新易盛（300502）、紫金矿业（601899）跌幅均超4%，蓝色光标（300058）、天孚通信（300394）跌近6%。贵州茅台（600519）收涨1.97 ...

Group 1 - The investment strategy is focused on three main directions: 1) Opportunities in technology related to AI, including computing power, storage, electricity, and applications, 2) Economic recovery leading to a "stronger stronger" market style, with cyclical stocks likely to perform better in the latter half, 3) Considering the potential for style rotation and bottom reversal in sectors like food and beverage, agriculture, social services, and pharmaceuticals, which have underperformed for three consecutive years but have a higher probability of outperforming in the fourth year [1] - The AI industry trend's progress depends on breakthroughs in both application and consumption ends, with a focus on the Hang Seng Internet sector [1] - In the early stages of a bull market, funds prefer high-growth sectors, while in later stages, they concentrate on main lines, making it harder for new funds to profit, whereas cyclical stocks, with low valuations and high beta, are likely to show good performance as fundamentals improve [1] Group 2 - The profitability of bulk chemicals is expected to hit a ten-year low by the second half of 2025 due to weak demand and the end of supply-side increments, with industry-wide losses or minimal profits observed in petrochemical products [3] - The fixed asset completion growth rate in the chemical raw materials and products industry is projected to turn negative starting June 2025, with limited new capacity expected in 2026-2027 [3] - The chemical raw materials and products sector is at a turning point from active destocking to passive restocking, with downstream textile and plastic products experiencing continuous inventory declines [3] Group 3 - The strategic importance of global rare earth resources is increasing, entering a new era of high-quality development, with supply constraints and rising demand from sectors like electric vehicles and robotics expected to drive long-term growth [6] - A significant outflow of funds from bank stocks has been noted, with A-shares and H-shares showing differing performances, indicating that A-share banks are more affected by fund outflows and style influences [6] - The investment value of banks in 2026 is expected to stem from a reassessment of systemic risks and the stable return characteristics of bank equities under the RMB asset allocation framework [6]

核心观点：本轮全球宽松周期下，各类资产关联度上升，新任美联储主席的变动有望重塑全球货币政策路径与市场空间。 摘要 ▶ 全球资本市场相关性显著提升 。2024年9月美联储启动降息周期以来，中、欧等主要经济体同步推进，全球流动性宽松格局形成。我们认为这一现象 本质是全球化债，核心逻辑正是通过债务置换逐步降低资金成本，缓解政府债务的利息偿付压力。对于全球市场而言：1）权益市场同步走强，纳斯达克 100、日经225等发达市场指数涨幅居前，上证指数、胡志明指数等新兴市场指数亦表现亮眼，且上行斜率的拐点几乎同步出现；2）贵金属及工业金属价 格同步上涨，金融属性领先实物需求属性扩张。商品市场与权益市场呈现强关联性，宽松交易的定价是核心。 ▶ 美联储决策逐渐透明、可预期，运转机制迭代优化。 近40年以来，历任美联储主席推动改革，主要包括：1）决策由秘密制定转向公开决策，强调利 率政策公布前与市场进行充分沟通。从格林斯潘开始，美联储的利率政策决策便开始有转向公开化、透明化的趋势，此后各位联储主席分别通过不同的方 式进一步促进了市场对于利率政策的消化过程。2）由经验驱动转向数据驱动。自格林斯潘开始，FOMC建立大量经济数据库，以 ...

[Table_Report] 相关报告 增量政策聚焦城市更新与新兴科技 2026.01.26 Q4 基金动向：增配 AI 基建与价值股 2026.01.24 主题轮动加快，聚焦国产半导体与电力 2026.01.18 AI 应用：以新生产工具重构新经济场景 2026.01.11 新兴产业空间广阔，看多中国产业龙头 2026.01.06 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 美联储换帅前瞻：历史复盘与影响展望 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 本报告导读 本轮全球宽松周期下，各类资产关联度上升，新任美联储主席的变动有望重塑全球 货币政策路径与市场空间。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.27 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 黄维驰(分析师) | | | 021-38032684 | | | huangweichi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520110005 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 略 ...